John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

**Wallco99** · 12-04-13, 06:10 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 15-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -24.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(12/3/13):
#17 Philadelphia (M/L) (A) - Win
#18 Toronto (+7½) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 10-8
(B) 4-3
(C) 0-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: None

There are no system plays for (12/4/13):
#40 Resumes (B) on 12/6/13

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 06:13 AM

Morrison 12/3 Results & 12/4 Plays

"

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 06:15 AM

That was hard work this morning.

I'm interested to see how Toronto will fare without the filter (1-7-5) and how Oklahoma will perform at the B Bet (published system) after losing on the point-buy and being filtered out. Of the 2 other A bet filters (published system), one went on to lose the series, saving 20 units, and the other won at the B Bet. Therefore the filter has been value for money so far this season...

**Wallco99** · 12-04-13, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

That was hard work this morning.

I'm interested to see how Toronto will fare without the filter (1-7-5) and how Oklahoma will perform at the B Bet (published system) after losing on the point-buy and being filtered out. Of the 2 other A bet filters (published system), one went on to lose the series, saving 20 units, and the other won at the B Bet. Therefore the filter has been value for money so far this season...

What filter?

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

What filter?

Toronto lost the A Bet to the spread by 1 point (lost game by 9 points, spread Tor +8), which filters them out of the 1-7-5 (filtered) system. So, I'm interested to see how they now fare in the 1-7-5 (unfiltered) system, when the series resumes on 12/6 (Fri). I suppose I could have made my point a little clearer.

**Boyne** · 12-04-13, 09:52 AM

Hi Walco, I think Kev's talking about the Spread +3 and 1/2 filter giving a combined total of +11 and 1/2 which means Tor. won by 2 and 1/2. Kev, do you ever actually go to bed?

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Boyne

Hi Walco, I think Kev's talking about the Spread +3 and 1/2 filter giving a combined total of +11 and 1/2 which means Tor. won by 2 and 1/2. Kev, do you ever actually go to bed?

Yes, Tor won with the published (point buy) system, as I posted above. However, the 1-7-5 systems do not buy points, so Tor lost the A bet in both of those 2 systems. In the 1-7-5 unfiltered system Tor now moves to the B Bet.; no argument there. In the 1-7-5 (Filtered) system Tor is filtered out due to a narrow loss (within 3.5 points to the spread).

Yes, I normally sleep between 1800 EST and 0400 EST. After breakfast I post the daily plays and answer any queries during (my) daytime.

Regards
Kev

**Wallco99** · 12-04-13, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Yes, Tor won with the published (point buy) system, as I posted above. However, the 1-7-5 systems do not buy points, so Tor lost the A bet in both of those 2 systems. In the 1-7-5 unfiltered system Tor now moves to the B Bet.; no argument there. In the 1-7-5 (Filtered) system Tor is filtered out due to a narrow loss (within 3.5 points to the spread).

Yes, I normally sleep between 1800 EST and 0400 EST. After breakfast I post the daily plays and answer any queries during (my) daytime.

Regards
Kev

I realize the Toronto bet was filtered out, my question was what filtered out Oklahoma City as you mentioned in post #773? Oklahoma City wasn't even close to covering on the point buy and I am not aware of any other filters that would stop that play in the filtered system.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I realize the Toronto bet was filtered out, my question was what filtered out Oklahoma City as you mentioned in post #773? Oklahoma City wasn't even close to covering on the point buy and I am not aware of any other filters that would stop that play in the filtered system.

I was referring to the Published System (point buy) which filters out big favs if they lose (new rule)

**Wallco99** · 12-04-13, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

I was referring to the Published System (point buy) which filters out big favs if they lose (new rule)

Oh OK. I notice you mentioned there was a latest .pdf for Morrison which includes this new filter. Any chance you can post it so we have a reference to it in the thread?

**Andy3568** · 12-04-13, 04:28 PM

I used to have a link to the latest PDF which was always updated, but since they shut down his site, I haven't been able to see it. The most recent one I saw was to play spread +3 for dogs and favorites of less than 3 and M/L for favorites of more than 3.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Andy3568

I used to have a link to the latest PDF which was always updated, but since they shut down his site, I haven't been able to see it. The most recent one I saw was to play spread +3 for dogs and favorites of less than 3 and M/L for favorites of more than 3.

Andy, have a look at my post #511

**Kev the Brit** · 12-04-13, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Oh OK. I notice you mentioned there was a latest .pdf for Morrison which includes this new filter. Any chance you can post it so we have a reference to it in the thread?

check PMs

**Andy3568** · 12-04-13, 09:15 PM

Thanks, Kevin. So basically, he's saying you can still bet the M/L, but if you don't and the M/L wins, don't continue betting.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-05-13, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by Andy3568

Thanks, Kevin. So basically, he's saying you can still bet the M/L, but if you don't and the M/L wins, don't continue betting.

Yes, you can bet on the M/L. Here's the statement again (I'm unable to upload it):

"If your team is still a favourite after buying 3 points, then you can either bet on the money line, OR bet on the point spread with 3 points as normal, but do not continue betting on the series if the bet does not win."

My interpretation of the above is that you stop the series after the bet, whatever happens. Either it wins and you stop due to success, or you lose on the point-buy or the M/L and you stop. However, in his pdf he states this:

"When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater
Here’s an important betting exception to keep in mind: If your team is a favorite of -3 or greater (that means it is expected that your team will beat their opponent by a margin of at least 3 points), then you should make a wager on the Money Line (betting on the Money Line means that you’ll win the bet as long as your team wins the game. No point-buying is necessary). The reason why is because if your team is the favorite, and manages to win the game but at the same time fail to cover the spread, it dramatically increases the risk to continue betting on the same series.

Alternatively, if you do not wish to have to increase your risk amount by betting on the Money Line when your team is a favorite of -3 or greater, then you can still bet on the point spread, and buy 3 points. But keep in mind: Do not continue betting on the series if you lose a bet that would have otherwise been won on the Money Line.

It’s not very common for a team to be favored by more than 3 points on the road, so rest assured that such a situation like this is not something you’ll encounter often. However, keep in mind that when they do arise, that you bet on the Money Line and not on the point spread. Or if you do bet on the point spread and buy 3 points, that you do not continue betting on the series if your wager does not cover while your team wins the game straight up."

There is a clear contradiction between the 2 Morrison statements. His top statement makes more sporting sense to me. If a clear favourite loses a game on the road, there is probably little time available (due to rest and travelling) to address the failure. IMHO The safe thing for a bettor trying to win 1 unit, but risking a lot more, is to walk away. Oklahoma lost their A Bet as big favourites and lost again last night. JM's top statement is proving valuable today.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-05-13, 06:53 AM

Morrison 12/4 Results & 12/5 Plays

"

**Wallco99** · 12-05-13, 06:59 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 15-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -24.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 10-8
(B) 4-3
(C) 0-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: None

There are no system plays for (12/5/13):
#18 Resumes (B) on 12/6/13

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

**Wallco99** · 12-05-13, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Yes, you can bet on the M/L. Here's the statement again (I'm unable to upload it):

"If your team is still a favourite after buying 3 points, then you can either bet on the money line, OR bet on the point spread with 3 points as normal, but do not continue betting on the series if the bet does not win."

My interpretation of the above is that you stop the series after the bet, whatever happens. Either it wins and you stop due to success, or you lose on the point-buy or the M/L and you stop. However, in his pdf he states this:

"When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater
Here’s an important betting exception to keep in mind: If your team is a favorite of -3 or greater (that means it is expected that your team will beat their opponent by a margin of at least 3 points), then you should make a wager on the Money Line (betting on the Money Line means that you’ll win the bet as long as your team wins the game. No point-buying is necessary). The reason why is because if your team is the favorite, and manages to win the game but at the same time fail to cover the spread, it dramatically increases the risk to continue betting on the same series.

Alternatively, if you do not wish to have to increase your risk amount by betting on the Money Line when your team is a favorite of -3 or greater, then you can still bet on the point spread, and buy 3 points. But keep in mind: Do not continue betting on the series if you lose a bet that would have otherwise been won on the Money Line.

It’s not very common for a team to be favored by more than 3 points on the road, so rest assured that such a situation like this is not something you’ll encounter often. However, keep in mind that when they do arise, that you bet on the Money Line and not on the point spread. Or if you do bet on the point spread and buy 3 points, that you do not continue betting on the series if your wager does not cover while your team wins the game straight up."

There is a clear contradiction between the 2 Morrison statements. His top statement makes more sporting sense to me. If a clear favourite loses a game on the road, there is probably little time available (due to rest and travelling) to address the failure. IMHO The safe thing for a bettor trying to win 1 unit, but risking a lot more, is to walk away. Oklahoma lost their A Bet as big favourites and lost again last night. JM's top statement is proving valuable today.

The Oklahoma City (A) bet actually won the way he says to play it. He said that we should play those bets on the M/L, however if you are afraid of that then play the line +3 points. If the +3 points loses, and the team still wins the game on M/L, the way it was supposed to be bet, then do not continue the series with the +3 points because the system has already taken a win for that bet. Oklahoma City won S/U but lost with the 3 point buy, so the series is over because they won the way it was supposed to be bet, not because of some filter.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-05-13, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

The Oklahoma City (A) bet actually won the way he says to play it. He said that we should play those bets on the M/L, however if you are afraid of that then play the line +3 points. If the +3 points loses, and the team still wins the game on M/L, the way it was supposed to be bet, then do not continue the series with the +3 points because the system has already taken a win for that bet. Oklahoma City won S/U but lost with the 3 point buy, so the series is over because they won the way it was supposed to be bet, not because of some filter.

Yes, that is what is in the pdf. But, since the pdf was published he issues the top statement above, which contradicts the last line of the pdf statement. The top statement indicates that the bettor stops after a lost bet on the point buy, period. Thoughts?

**ken23lau** · 12-05-13, 08:40 AM

My interpretation was the same as Wallco's when I read the pdf

**Andy3568** · 12-05-13, 09:51 AM

Wallco's interpretation is the way I interpreted it as well. I took the moneyline bet on big favorites to be the official system bet, and the statement about the 3 point buy as just guidance for folks who chose to play it that way.

**Wallco99** · 12-05-13, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Yes, that is what is in the pdf. But, since the pdf was published he issues the top statement above, which contradicts the last line of the pdf statement. The top statement indicates that the bettor stops after a lost bet on the point buy, period. Thoughts?

That is just a copy of a statement he sent you. Does that statement have the phrases: "New Rule", or "Change to Rule" or "New Filter"...etc, attached to it anywhere? If not, he may have just been reminding you of the old rule again but screwed up the way he phrased it. Neither would surprise me since he is always trying to add filters after the fact to erase previous losses, one luxury the average bettor doesn't have since he/she already lost money on those bets, and nothing he ever sends to anyone is accurate or even coincides with certain rules he already has in place. For traditional JM records, I would just call it a win, since they did win on M/L anyway, and +3 buy is only a secondary way of playing it anyway. It would still be a 1-7-5 play, both versions, because they didn't cover ATS or with 3.5 extra points in the filtered version.

**KennyM10** · 12-05-13, 03:09 PM

Just post the picks and be quiet. I miss jm disciple.

**analyzer** · 12-05-13, 04:43 PM

***

**Wallco99** · 12-06-13, 08:00 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 15-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -24.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 10-8
(B) 4-3
(C) 0-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: None

Games for (12/6/13):
#18 Toronto (+4) @ Phoenix (B) (9:05 pm EST)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-06-13, 10:42 AM

Change to Morrison Currently Published System Stats

"

**Kev the Brit** · 12-06-13, 10:43 AM

Morrison 12/5 Results & 12/6 Plays

"

**thelimit0310** · 12-06-13, 11:46 AM

Morrison will say one thing or the other depending on which one will boost his record. Take everything he says with a grain of salt. Good job Kev!

**Boyne** · 12-06-13, 12:12 PM

Take it with a whole carton of salt. Kev, you work too hard.

**Kev the Brit** · 12-06-13, 01:39 PM

Thanks, guys.

I'm not a blind follower of Morrison. However, he did post the statement on 11/1 about stopping after a clear favourite loses the bet. So, he isn't guilty, in this particular respect, of moulding the stats. Anyway, we move on....

**Wallco99** · 12-06-13, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

Thanks, guys.

I'm not a blind follower of Morrison. However, he did post the statement on 11/1 about stopping after a clear favourite loses the bet. So, he isn't guilty, in this particular respect, of moulding the stats. Anyway, we move on....

No, but it was probably added to erase some losses from previous years to make his past stats look more impressive to the new suckers who fall for his crap.

**KennyM10** · 12-07-13, 01:14 AM

Another b loser Toronto stink so would someone care to tell what the c wager is on this losing system?

**KennyM10** · 12-07-13, 01:42 AM

No update tonight wally?

**Kev the Brit** · 12-07-13, 06:33 AM

Morrison 12/6 Results & 12/7 Plays

"

**Wallco99** · 12-07-13, 10:39 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 15-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -24.21 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(12/6/13):
#18 Toronto (+3½) (B) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 10-8
(B) 4-4
(C) 0-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: None

There are no system plays for (12/7/13):
#18 Resumes (C) on 12/8/13

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.