"70% math play" system tracking

[FreeFall]

nice work mundane! I saw this system and thought I should try it too, but I got too confused on the parameters. Looks like you may have figured something out. lets see if it hits +65%

[mundane]

12/17 went 4-1 today!

ytd: 6-1 85.71%

12/18 1 play ~ phoenix suns +5.5

no play on spurs at orlando as d howard is injured.

[porkchop817]

I think this formula came from RX, atleast i remember seeing a similar spreadsheet there last season.

it was ace-ace and another guy that had created it i think, i'll see if i can dig up some posts on their forum

[porkchop817]

Okay, I don't know if SBR allows linking to other forums, so i'll just post some of what this guy has to say about it. Apparently he got it from a guy, who got from a friends cousin, who picked it up from a guy in a traveling circus, who learned it while he was in the australian navy, etc. etc. you get the idea.

The posters name is Larry Legend, and he got the formula from his buddy Walt. It starts off with an e-mail from walt that is the exact same as the first post on NBA Math. But, it follows it up with "The record for 1999 was 60-25 and for 2000 it was 73-30."

heres the rest of the post:

Now this is how i figure it out.


If you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much straight up.

You take the higher % , subtract the lower %....divide by 20. Add 3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.

If this final number is above 10, it is a play on the favorite.
If this final number is negative 1 or less, then it is a play on the dog.
If the final number is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no play.

That's it. Straight up, simple as can be.

Now the tricky one

What to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored.

This is where the confusion lies. THere has been much dicussion as to whether or not the dog need to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are a positive number is enough.

Nw I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.

I finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had received from Walt.

Here they are:

-------------------------------------------------------------

Example 1:

Christmas Day 2000
Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando

This is what he types , word for word, letter for letter:

Orl462-Ind429=33 or 1.5Orl-3(H)=1.5Ind-5.5(SP)= -4Ind or +4Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5)Ind. Orl lost.


Example 2:
Feb 2 2001
ind home minus 4 vs Denv

This is what he wrote:

Keeping an eye on den(+4)Ind-this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better but is getting points and is not a -/+computation game. Den565-Ind444=121or 6Den-3(home-Ind)=3Den+4(spread Ind)=7Den (people would sub and think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Ind -4 then Den is +4) It seems logical that if a team is better % wise they shoulod be giving points not getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or more, 2nd - -/+comp)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

So what is the difference between these 2 plays . Both have road teams with better winning % and are dogs, but one is a play, and one he is "watching".

The only difference I can see is with example one, your final number before the spread is a negative number. In example 2 , it is not.

I ahve asked others to detrmine the difference between the 2 plays, and no one has come up with anythig.
So without Walt to answer the question (it is possible he screwed up), I have nothing else to go on , but the fact that he talks about +/- computation and in one example where it is a play, the number before the spread goes into the negative and then back to positive.

So this is how I have determined these plays. Others still disagree and believe both examples should be plays, and thus the reason I have decided to post and track them separtately rather than not at all. They have been winning, and I want people to benfit with as many winners as possible. But I also want to keep the system to its purest sense possible.
(also note...this system had only been licking out about 100 or so plays a year, and by playing every road dog with better winning %, there will be a ton of plays. Not what the formula had intended)


So these examples are how I determine the plays. One plain and simple and the other, up for debate. I may one day have a euphoria,, and all of a sudden see the equation in a whole different light and change my thoughts on this, but for now, this is how I am proceeding.

Now on to "Filtered vs. non filtered"

I am not sure if Dice is labeling the above debated plays as filtered or non filtered, but I am pretty sure what is being referred to as "non flitered" are plays on team that have injured starters , played back to back games, or are more than 10 point spread. He had found these were winnning anyway and decided to play them regardless of aformentioned filters.
I still am not.

Notes:
back to back. If the team that is a play, played last night, it is a NO PLAY. It does not care what thier opponent did yeterday. Nor does both of them playing last night cancel each other out.

Injuries:
the rules say do not play if a starter is out and to wait one week for return.
I never remember Walt waiting a week after a starter returned. And I do remember him playing on teams after they adjust to the starter being out.

So this I am playing as a judgement call.
Example, Artest is out and Sac is still covering, so I will now play them if they come up as a play. And I will not wait one week after he is back.


Maybe "wait one week for return starters" meant wait one week for them to return, and if they don't, then play as normal"


He didn't play spreads of more than 10 simply because he was afraid of "garbage time"

So there it is. This is how I have come to understand it, and this is how I am playing it.

You can dissect and twist and turn and find a 1000 different variations to come up with as many more plays as you wish. If it works, more power to us.

But for me, I prefer to keep it to its simplest and play less plays. I would rather play one 10 unit play than play 5, 2 unit plays. (At least for this part of my bankroll)


And I hate to sound like a broken record but, if this formula works for oyu and you are able to make a profit from it, please please please find it in your heart to pass some of it along to others less fortunate than yourself. Drop a few coins off at a church or charity, give a pair of gloves to a guy living on the street. Many ways to do this. And it makes all the difference in the world.
Oh, and also, make to show the ones you love, how much you love them.

Take care all,

Larry Legend

Then another guy comes in and says he uses more or less the same formula, and he got it from somewhere else.

I love system plays and this looks like a good one that has been producing winners for a long time. I actually ran on to this system at another forum and that is how I found this place. There is so many variations of the system out there that it gets a bit confusing.

Here is the way we have been playing it and it has produced a record of 24-4-1 on filtered plays ytd and a 31-7-1(as of 12/31/07) for unfiltered plays.


The system has to do with comparing a team's winning pct.
Example
Golden St 14-11
Minnesota 3-20

Take GS win pct 560, subtract Min win pct 130 = 430
Divide 430 by 20 = 21.5
GS is road team so subtract 3 pts = 18.5 (add 3 if they are home)
Add or subtract pt spread (-7.5) = 11

If number is greater than 10, play on the team with the higher win pct.

If dog has number greater than 1, play on dog.

Now, there are a couple of filters that eliminate some plays if you don't want to play all of them.
*Don't play teams that are playing the 2nd of back to back games

*Don't play on teams that have a starter injured.

*Don't play double digit favorites.

With all that said, Larry Legend only posted the system plays up until mid feb 08 for last season. The system was 36-15-2 up to that point.

[willpies]

Portland 615 Phoenix 600

615-600 =15

15/20=0.75

0.75 +3 (for home team) = 3.75

3.75 -5 = -1.25

Number is less than 1 so play the other team ats.

So its saying bet on Phoenix +5

Am i doing this right?

[BeeGirl]

Could someone please explain to me what relevance dividing by 20 has? Does this represent 20 games into the season or what?

[walbjj]

can someone just summarise the final play for each day. thanks

[willpies]

sorry i didnt see ur post mundane! lets see if phoenix can go 2 work on those gay blazers!

[willpies]

Dwight Howard is going to play so he not injured then is he? the play should be on right

[pubster77]

Dwight Howard is going to play so he not injured then is he? the play should be on right

I think the rule is that if a starter missed a game, then you cant bet on that team for their next 7 games.

[porkchop817]

the spread on the phoenix game has moved to +4, this makes it a no play.

the play is only good if you can get the spread at phoenix+5 or greater

[jtnguyen79]

isnt dwight back?

[Spoon]

If iIm not mistaken, this formula is not setup to be used if a team played the day prior anyway. i.e. San Antonio.

[jtnguyen79]

spoon you are correct however mundane mention something if the selected team didnt play previous night so would formula work if we selected Orlando?

[Spoon]

I took a look at this formula a month or so ago and I believe it was a no play if either team played a game the day prior. I'm not 100% sure, but I believe that is what I read. I'm on Orlando using my own system, nevertheless. GL

[Rio DiNero]

HAS ANYONE TRYED THIS SYSTEM IN NFL?

[nick2060]

theory

good work so far, just an idea that ill keep track of if anybody is interested, but i think its a good idea to use a home teams home record and an away teams away record. Why should a good home team be penalized for being a poor road team. I also think including records like that might hurt the results. Anywayz if you do use only home and away records there is no play tonight. Good luck tonight everybody

[mundane]

in light of what porkchop817 posted here, i wont count that hornets win to my filtered tracking (it will have an asterisk instead). so yesterday record would only be 3-1. hornets became the play (play other team ats) but the game being a back to back for them made it a no play.

for today, u can only play suns >+5. anything less is not recommended by the system. i plugged in portland -5.5 as it was the opening line. im sticking with the opening lines as that is what the linemakers intended for the public to play (or not play) to begin with.

spurs @magic is a no play imo. filter about injury doesnt allow it to be considered a play (d howard). furthermore, even if we look pass through d howard's injury as they've been covering anyways (see last 5 games), system calculation shows that it becomes a play for the spurs (play other team ats) but the game being a back to back for spurs makes it a no play.

---

big thanks to porkchop817 for sniffing out some information about the 'system'. at least now i think i have a better understanding of the filters and what nots. unfortunately the way examples 1 & 2 are presented in the post baffles my simple mind. so if someone can explain that calculation in simplier form instead of this ~ Orl462-Ind429=33 or 1.5Orl-3(H)=1.5Ind-5.5(SP)= -4Ind or +4Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5)Ind. Orl lost ~ i'd appreciate it a lot!

[Meestermike]

I may take this a step further with regards to Win %. Use Home and road win %'s...

Portland Hm W% = .800
Phoenix Rd W% = .583

.800 - .583 = .217

.217 +3 (for home team) = 3.217

3.217 - 5 = -1.783

Number is less than -1 so play the other team ats.
So its saying bet on Phoenix +5

If you look at it where the line is -4

3.217 - 4 = -0.783
Number is not less than -1 so no play.

[porkchop817]

Unless I'm mistaken, and you just did not show the math, I think you forgot the divide by 20 part.

800-583=217
217/20=10.85
10.85+3=13.85
13.85-5=8.85

8.85 = No Play.

I might have missed something, so check the math.

I may take this a step further with regards to Win %. Use Home and road win %'s...

Portland Hm W% = .800
Phoenix Rd W% = .583

.800 - .583 = .217

.217 +3 (for home team) = 3.217

3.217 - 5 = -1.783

Number is less than -1 so play the other team ats.
So its saying bet on Phoenix +5

If you look at it where the line is -4

3.217 - 4 = -0.783
Number is not less than -1 so no play.

[pubster77]

I may take this a step further with regards to Win %. Use Home and road win %'s...

Portland Hm W% = .800
Phoenix Rd W% = .583

.800 - .583 = .217

.217 +3 (for home team) = 3.217

3.217 - 5 = -1.783

Number is less than -1 so play the other team ats.
So its saying bet on Phoenix +5

If you look at it where the line is -4

3.217 - 4 = -0.783
Number is not less than -1 so no play.

Dude that was terrible. lol.
1. You multiply winning pct by 1000 so its 783 not .783
2. You have to divide by 20

Also, I think using home/away records is a bad idea as teams with better home records than away records change year to year and we really dont know who the better home/road teams are until the season is over.

also i wouldnt be surprised if the difference between a great home team and a good home team is just due to randomness of a small sample size.

If you look, year to year the top home teams change which supports this idea.

(btw I define a good home team by the difference in their home and road record. so if a team is 40-1 at both home and on the road i dont consider them as good a home team as a team that is 20-21 at home and 0-41 on the road)

[porkchop817]

If you got the Phoenix Suns at the opening spread of +5.5, then the system play was a WIN.

7-1 87.5%

as of right now, the only play is New Jersey +4.5. Waiting for the spreads on the following games to be posted: Clippers vs Indiana

Heres what the lines need to be for that team to be a play:

CLIPPERS +8 vs INDIANA

[willpies]

Well if u got +5.5 yeah the system was right on but if just 5 no good. I guess that much is down to luck

Also i think there should be the same calculation using form of last 10 games or something

[porkchop817]

Well if u got +5.5 yeah the system was right on but if just 5 no good. I guess that much is down to luck

Well, then it was a push...which is better than a loss considering the 10 seconds of handicapping it takes to do this with the spreadsheet

Also i think there should be the same calculation using form of last 10 games or something

Could you expand on this Will?

[willpies]

Using last 12 games as form.

GAME
win loss



Mavericks 9 3 -3 <- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home) Nets 6 6 -4.5 <- enter the spread
5.00 NO PLAY ON THE SELECTED TEAM


SEE ABOVE FOR PLAY OR NO PLAY

NOTES: Number is 5 so no play? calculations 0.750 0.500 12.50



9.50 5.00




Below should say OK! Otherwise the system is fubar!
OK!




OK!

[willpies]

bucks 11 16 -3 <- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home) knicks 11 14 3 <- enter the spread
-1.63 NO PLAY ON THE SELECTED TEAM


PLAY THE OTHER TEAM ATS


NOTES: Play on Knicks! calculations 0.407 0.440 -1.63



-4.63 -1.63




Below should say OK! Otherwise the system is fubar!
OK!




OK!

[willpies]

GAME
win loss



Oaklahoma 2 24 3 <- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home) Raptors 10 15 6 <- enter the spread
-7.15 NO PLAY ON THE SELECTED TEAM


PLAY THE OTHER TEAM ATS


NOTES:Play on raptors
calculations 0.077 0.400 -16.15



-13.15 -7.15




Below should say OK! Otherwise the system is fubar!
OK!




OK!

[willpies]

Sorry for these posts im probably doing it wrong

[mundane]

yeah... please edit and delete those! u'll just gonna confuse people!

[porkchop817]

its hard to tell from the way the forum rearranges the formatting, but are you putting the team with the best record on top in the spreadsheets?

Refer to the pics that mundane has posted to see what i'm talking about. The team with the better record always goes on top.

[willpies]

Sorry Delete my posts i dont know how to delete them

[BeeGirl]

By my calculations:

Plays
Boston up to -15
Atlanta as long as line stays off 10
New Jersey down to + 3 or so

[mundane]

12/19 - 2 plays

ytd: 6-1 85.71%

check and see below. lemme know if there are any mistakes.

[mmike032]

so the plays are Dallas and Atlanta, correct?
or by" play the other team" it means NJ?

[pubster77]

Would cleveland be a play?

cleveland win% = 840
denver win % = 680

So if the selected team is cleveland you get 840 -680 = 160
160/20=8
8-3=5
5+1=6 (no play)

However if denver is the selected team you get 680 -840 = -160
-160/20=-8
-8+3 =-5
-5-1=-6 (play on the cavs).

but i guess ilgauskaus is injured so its a no play anyways. But just wondering which interpretation is correct.