I Got A New System for O/u betting

[AdaBarber]

indy/philly=207, line =214.5 bet the over
l.a./boston=209, line 204.5 bet the under
b.kane bet would be indy/philly

I played both. They seem reasonable to me. Indy has been playing high scoring games of late and no defense whatsoever. And I can see the Laker game dragging on with AB out and KG getting over the flu.

[G's pks]

another system play:

CHI/NO UNDER 186

----------------------------xxxxxxxxxxxxxx-------------------xxxxxxxxxxxxxx----------
recap:

system plays:
MIA/DET UNDER 181 (line is already 179)
ATL/MIN UNDER 202 (line is already 199.5)
CHI/NO UNDER 186
PHX/GSW OVER 229 (line is now at 226.5)

Nothing bad about your system, but I have noticed with some teams...they get streaky...the bulls being one. When they play teams with injuries or without a dominant center their games usually go over. I had the over and easily won. But obviously these are things the system cannot reveal. But I am very interested in watching how this works out for you guys... Best of luck and hopefully it works for you.

One last question has anyone here taken the time to back test this system?

[bkane]

Nothing bad about your system, but I have noticed with some teams...they get streaky...the bulls being one. When they play teams with injuries or without a dominant center their games usually go over. I had the over and easily won. But obviously these are things the system cannot reveal. But I am very interested in watching how this works out for you guys... Best of luck and hopefully it works for you.

One last question has anyone here taken the time to back test this system?

no real back testing, just goind forward with it hoping for the best.
b.kane

[G's pks]

no real back testing, just goind forward with it hoping for the best.
b.kane

best of luck! very interesting, maybe someone could grab the reigns here who has access and take a peek... I know it is work but I know someone could do it...if they are watching...anyways impressive up to now GL!

[NBA Hero]

first time to post on this thread cause i dont pick over/under. but isnt the over at indi/philli a bit odd? last two games has been close and went under 200, and players on each team are pretty even.

[bkane]

4-2.........................5-2 for some!

i'll put up the system play for tonight a lil later.

[G's pks]

first time to post on this thread cause i dont pick over/under. but isnt the over at indi/philli a bit odd? last two games has been close and went under 200, and players on each team are pretty even.

Ok a quick look at this one...hopefully you get their system pick answer also. I would say the o/u in this game is higher than you expect for a few reasons.

#1. Pacers have a porous defense and let up 107pts a game.
#2. This one taking a quick glance surprised me! In the last 20 Pacer games this year both teams have hit triple digits (over 100pts) in 17 of 20 games! And one of those 3 missed with the team landing on 99!

So yes at first glance and head to head looks high... But just a few quick thoughts not using a system...... I would not touch it... But the above stats show maybe why...

[brooks85]

ok so let me make sure I have this right. I go back 3 games for EACH team involved in the line. Team 1 -Take the TOTALS from last 3 games, add the 3 together, divide by 6, add Team 1 and Team 2 numbers together. If the number i get is higher than the posted line, take the under, if its lower take the over. And your only taking the game that has the biggest differential from the o/u THAT night correct?

are their any other filters?

[NBA Hero]

indi doesnt defend well but phillie has been known for their offensive futility at times, but they compensate with their athletism and defense using the young players and length. that spells trouble for the sweet shooting indie. phillie has been playing relatively well without brand so it is not a surprise if this game goes under

[joanapoker]

brooks85,

u are doing the right math and the correct prediction regarding the OVER/UNDER selection.
I use filters, bkane doesn't.

G's pks,

I'm back testing the model with my filters (I use the total of the previous 3 games between the two teams, line diference of 9 or higher and line movement during the day), but it's really dificult to do all this by hand (the historic of lines that I have came from covers, so I have to copy them to excel).
I've back tested this season and it shows some promissing results (65%).

NBA Hero and others,

There is no system play (bkane system with joanapoker filters)

[joanapoker]

Plays for tonight:

BOS -2 1st qrt
St Mary's -10.5 1st qrt (CK secret play)
Davidson -12.5 1st qrt (CK secret play)

Updated this to include CK secret plays that I'm playing today!

[G's pks]

Well 65% on back testing will be fantastic news! Are you testing by quarters, halfs, games... I am guessing full game results? The q's would probably take a while...

brooks85,

u are doing the right math and the correct prediction regarding the OVER/UNDER selection.
I use filters, bkane doesn't.

G's pks,

I'm back testing the model with my filters (I use the total of the previous 3 games between the two teams, line diference of 9 or higher and line movement during the day), but it's really dificult to do all this by hand (the historic of lines that I have came from covers, so I have to copy them to excel).
I've back tested this season and it shows some promissing results (65%).

NBA Hero and others,

There is no system play (bkane system with joanapoker filters)

[joanapoker]

bkane system with Joanapoker filters

CLE/ORL UNDER 195 WIN
BOS/DET UNDER 180 WIN
CHI/PHX OVER 213 WIN
GSW/HOU OVER 213.5 LOSS
CLE/DET UNDER 180.5 WIN
OKC/SAC OVER 216 WIN
CHA/UTA UNDER 194.5 WIN
SAS/GSW OVER 213.5 WIN
SAC/PHX OVER 224 LOSS
MIA/DET UNDER 181 LOSS
ATL/MIN UNDER 202 WIN
CHI/NO UNDER 186 LOSS
PHX/GSW OVER 229 WIN

Track Record 9-4-0 (let's keep posting plays and studying this, plenty study to be made)

JOANAPOKER ALL BETS RECORD SINCE POSTING IN THIS THREAD 15-5-0

[joanapoker]

G's pks,

only full game results

[G's pks]

G's pks,

only full game results

got it...thanks will be watching GL

[bkane]

4-2

i usually like bigger differentials, but i hope this ones good enough.

TONIGHTS "SYSTEM" PICK IS: INDIANA/ PHILADELPHIA
OVER 216

thats the line i locked in, so i'll ive it a go.....

system 4-2 good luck tonight everyone

[joanapoker]

bkane is doing the pure system that he brought up!

So pure bkane system the play is IND/PHI OVER 216 (my book is 215.5)

bkane system with joanapoker filters: NO PLAY

--- But I actually like the IND/PHI Over, but I'm not gona bet! (staying within the system filters)

[kaspbart]

bkane how much shuold be (in your opinion) the differential? i take for 1 unit if it's 5-7
2 units if it is 7-10, and 3 units if its higher .... i take totay over in indiana, line 214. lets grab that cash ...

[bkane]

bkane how much shuold be (in your opinion) the differential? i take for 1 unit if it's 5-7
2 units if it is 7-10, and 3 units if its higher .... i take totay over in indiana, line 214. lets grab that cash ...

i think i'm gonna need to have atleast a 9 point differential to call it a play. b.kane

[bkane]

indiana's 13 in the 3rd killed this bet.

[bkane]

4-3

crappy second half system 4-3

i'm adding a filter......: still take game with biggest differential, but now differential has to be 10 points or over...

[kaspbart]

crappy second half system 4-3

i'm adding a filter......: still take game with biggest differential, but now differential has to be 10 points or over...

10 or higher it will be. next time we will win. i see that if the differential is close i worth to play with the numbers ... lets say for a few Euro ... .

[joanapoker]

The filter is 9! Don't change to 10 just because u like the number 10! The back test made to more than 200 games was made with a 9 point filter and it showed a 65% winning record!

[joanapoker]

Plays for tonight:

BOS -2 1st qrt LOSS
St Mary's -10.5 1st qrt (CK secret play) WIN
Davidson -12.5 1st qrt (CK secret play) WIN

Updated this to include CK secret plays that I'm playing today!

Record since posting here: 17-6-0 (all picks)
bkane system with Joanapoker touch: 9-4-0

[jtnguyen79]

so filter 9....any other filter?

[joanapoker]

System plays UPDATED:

POR/OKC UNDER 201 Locked

BOS/NYK UNDER 209 ( NO play for me!)
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LAC/MEM it's no longer a system play (line pass from 198.5 to 203 in some books)

[joanapoker]

so filter 9....any other filter?

yes there are others:
- The line can't change more than 4 points during the day (but this is impossible to do in back test, because I only have the final lines);

- Past games results between the teams;

- Back to back games (example GSW at PHX today -- the line on this game is 1/2 a point form being considered an OVER play, but I'm not gonna play the Over on this game, no matter what the line change!

[007Fatty]

if they have only scores 189 in past 3 games wouldnt that be over??

[joanapoker]

if they have only scores 189 in past 3 games wouldnt that be over??

in the past 3 between the two teams. not the past 3 games for each team! My english sometimes is not that good, I apologize for that!

[Ditaln1]

System plays UPDATED:

POR/OKC UNDER 201 Locked

LAC/MEM UNDER 198.5 Locked (This one screams for trap! I beleive that the linesmaker wants bets on the OVER so he's putting the total under the 200 mark. This teams are an amazing 8-2 for the Over in the past 10 games, but are only scoring an average of 189 in the past 3 games between them.)

BOS/NYK UNDER 209 ( NO play for me!)

That O/U for the LAC/MEM game just jumped to 202.5 .. interesting...

[joanapoker]

In post #202 I've posted the system picks (attention, this are my system picks, wich means that they are bkane system with my filters)

CARD 4 FRIDAY: all my bets

LAC/MEM UNDER 198.5 (I will get burned on this one!!)
POR/OKC UNDER 201 (SYSTEM PLAY)
GSW/PHX UNDER 230.5 (I'm going with the back 2 back theory for the total and I think the Suns will put some defense tonight!)
DEN -6.5 (JM play but with no points buy)
UTA-2.5 (I just can't see the Kings winning this game, power rating gives utah -9! Last 20 games the Kings won just 3 and only Dallas was a above .500 team also the Jazz made a great game yesterday I'm thinking the momentum will continue! But be carefull the line movement is smelling like a fc**ng trap. 80% on the jazz and the line drop half point at pinnacle)

[joanapoker]

That O/U for the LAC/MEM game just jumped to 202.5 .. interesting...

203 at bet365
201 at partybets

mmmm this one is tricky.....I guess I'm gonna get burned.

at 201 and above it's a NO PLAY (I've already played )

[joanapoker]

The line change at Portland/OKC makes me happy, already dropped 2 points.

Also the line movement on the BOS/NYK is making the system play more interesting (maybe i'll jump on this one two)

[jtnguyen79]

joana

so if line moved 2 pts already then does that mean it cant move any more than 2 more pts during the day for the filter

[handimann]

203 at bet365
201 at partybets

mmmm this one is tricky.....I guess I'm gonna get burned.

at 201 and above it's a NO PLAY (I've already played )

i don't understand why it's a no play if it's risen more since the original line. wouldn't that make it a bigger play?