The JM "Chase system" $1000 bank roll

[Dexter]

you are going to realize how ridiculous it is to bet 7 units to ship 1. Yes, the Morrison System is working great this year, and yes, I've cashed many tickets following it... but I came to the realization that I can hit 60% of my plays paying -110 or better, and paying -800 (which is what you are doing come Bet-C) has absolutely no value. BOL with the remainder of the season square.

7 units to win 1 on a C bet? i wish it were that cheap! lol

ps: pls pm me your plays for 1 year - if you can hit 60% for me, i will gladly pay you going forward and quit my job!

[sportsbetwin]

For those who have access to the win/loss data for this entire JM betting season, I would appreciate it if you can PM me the spreadsheet. If your data also includes the spreads and also the scores for each game, that would be awesome. I'd like to make some calculations on the data for my own use and strategies.

Thanks,

netinfo

I have all the data - just need to collate it. Even comparison of system variations - buying 3,2,1 0 and selling 1 point. PM me after regular season.
I will post here at seasons end with results for each variation.

[Dexter]

For those who have access to the win/loss data for this entire JM betting season, I would appreciate it if you can PM me the spreadsheet. If your data also includes the spreads and also the scores for each game, that would be awesome. I'd like to make some calculations on the data for my own use and strategies.

Thanks,

netinfo

i doubt anyone will pm you their personal spreadheet. just go to cbs.com, and print out the team by team calendar, then go to covers.com and look up the game results with the final odds. should take you maybe an hour or 2.

doing the research yourself will make you sleep easier with the system

[007Fatty]

ive thought about that middling system before.
and it sounds perfect
but if you actually think about it.
wat if you buy gsw up to +9 and have mil at -6
and gsw comes out with a win.
you lose money.
so its safer to play the one play for that night.
or watever other bets you have going.

[rgga86]

Which book do you use, and do they give you 3 points at -170 ?

netinfo

I use betcrismexico.com , I think there are the same lines as betCRIS.com, I can only buy 2 points @ -150 Im very comfortable with them

[netinfo]

I have all the data - just need to collate it. Even comparison of system variations - buying 3,2,1 0 and selling 1 point. PM me after regular season.
I will post here at seasons end with results for each variation.

Thanks bro. I'll try and remember to give you a PM at season's end. I received a PM from someone who plans on sending me the data. Your data would be good to compare it with his.

I didn't know you can sell points. Let me know which books allow you to sell points.

i doubt anyone will pm you their personal spreadheet. just go to cbs.com, and print out the team by team calendar, then go to covers.com and look up the game results with the final odds. should take you maybe an hour or 2.

doing the research yourself will make you sleep easier with the system

Thanks Dexter. I love to use multiple data, so that my own research can be complemented and compared with someone else's research. Sometimes other people can notice things that I might miss.

ive thought about that middling system before.
and it sounds perfect
but if you actually think about it.
wat if you buy gsw up to +9 and have mil at -6
and gsw comes out with a win.
you lose money.
so its safer to play the one play for that night.
or watever other bets you have going.

Yeah, this will happen sometimes. The underdog sometimes wins, and this messes up the window in a Middling strategy.

I use betcrismexico.com , I think there are the same lines as betCRIS.com, I can only buy 2 points @ -150 Im very comfortable with them

Cool thanks.

netinfo

[sportsbetwin]

I didn't know you can sell points. Let me know which books allow you to sell points.


netinfo

Pinnacle. Can sell a point for about +115

[netinfo]

Pinnacle. Can sell a point for about +115

Oh, ok. Unfortunately, I can't use Pinnacle, cause I'm a US resident. If there are any other sportsbooks out there that let you sell points, I'd love to hear about them.

netinfo

[ThomasKranked]

Is there any website with odds and lines + results from 06/07 and 07/08 to backtest a system?

btw.: today Utah as 'A'

[Karate]

are there are any plays today?

[rgga86]

are there are any plays today?

Too late, Utah is playing

[MadStu]

Did anyone get an email from JM today?
Because I didn't.

[rgga86]

well the 4th quarter between utah and toronto was awesome, another A win!

[alukk]

knicks are also A bet

[netinfo]

knicks are also A bet

This is according to the Cartytay strategy, not JM. Cartytay made a small mistake on his March spreadsheet by coloring the Knicks game in Red (the color for JM plays), rather than green (the color for Cartytay plays).

The Knicks are not a JM A bet today because they are playing the Nets, an in-conference opponent, therefore, it is not a JM system play.

netinfo

[Vincepcion]

Did anyone get an email from JM today?
Because I didn't.

i didnt either

[The_Kid]

i didnt either

Nope, I didn't get it either.

[netinfo]

I made myself a small script to work out the exact prices of all bets, here: http://www.madstu.net/bets.php

This is a neat and simple little program, thanks!

For those out there who know how to program, if you could come up with simple programs that are designed to complement the JM system, please share them with us. Many of us can benefit from simple stuff like these.

netinfo

[MadStu]

Glad you like it
It'll only work out the amounts with bets at -170 rate though.

[netinfo]

Glad you like it
It'll only work out the amounts with bets at -170 rate though.

Oh that's fine. It follows the actual JM strategy, which is good.

Back on post #573 of this thread, I figured out the loss figures for a Risk Unit of $100:

Bet A loss: $100
Bet B loss: $270
Bet C loss: $729
Total loss: $1099

Your program reflect the above quite well, with a little more accuracy, by including the cents.

netinfo

[jj28]

^^ YOU GUYS ALL HAVE YOUR MATH SO WRONG.
For a unit bet to win $100, its like this

BET A: To Win $100, Bet $170
BET B: To win $270, Bet $459
BET C: To win $729, Bet $1,239

Total Loss if Lose all bet a,b,c, total loss is $1,868

[netinfo]

jj28,

The $100 in my post is a Risk Unit, not a Win Unit. Some of us use a Risk betting strategy, while others use a Win betting strategy. Both are correct. I use a Risk strategy, meaning, when I bet, I place my Unit amount on the Risk field, rather than the Win field.

Those of us who have smaller bankrolls can not afford to play the Win strategy, and so we play the Risk strategy.

netinfo

[jj28]

^^ Net Info. Thats not even a risk strategy. All your doing is a unit bet of $59 on a win unit strategy.

Ok. Lets do $59 as your unit bet.

Bet A: To Win $59, Bet $100
Bet B: To Win $159, Bet $271
Bet C: To Win $430, Bet $731

Total Loss is $1,102

The result is the same as your "Risk Strategy"

All your doing is a unit win bet of $59.

[netinfo]

jj28,

Yes, I'm risking $100 to win $58.80. Why? Because I have a small bankroll. I can't afford to risk $170 to win $100. This is what I mean, when I say that I'm using a Risk strategy, with a Risk Unit of $100. In other words, I'm using a Win strategy, with a Win Unit of $58.80

With a bankroll of about $500, my actual Risk Unit is $10, and so I risk $10 to win $5.88.

netinfo

[MadStu]

I've not even bet more than $50 yet!

I've been keeping my risk per [A] bet at less than 10% of my total account balance.

[netinfo]

Typically, when people mention a Unit amount, they use whole dollar amounts, like $100. Nobody sets their Unit amount to $103.63 for example. And so, for those want to Win a Unit, their Unit would be a whole number. For those who want to Risk a Unit, their Unit should likewise be a whole number.

In my case, I setup my Unit as $10, and I want to Risk $10, not Win $10, that's why I say that I have a Risk strategy, because my Risk strategy involves a whole number as the Unit.

netinfo

[jj28]

NET INFO, Ok, i see wat you talkin about.

Well I guess its the same thing.

Anyways. Heres some things I picked up along the way. 2 things I think that will help you with money management.


#1
I think $100 is a perfect unit bet, and heres the reasons why.

Lets say the play is Phoenix visiting Miami, Charlotte, New York. And hypothetically, lets say that all games, the spread is Phoenix +5. So when you buy 3 points, its +8.

THis is what I do.
Bet A: Phoenix Risk $170/$100 +8, Miami $33/30 -5
Result Phoenix Loses: JM System: -170, Side Betting +$30
Gulp, move onto bet B.

Result Phoenix Wins: +67 (JM Win $100 - Miami $-33)
You're done with the system with a cool $67

Bet B: Phoenix Risk $459/$270 +8, Charlotte $33/30 -5
Result Phoenix Lose: JM System - $629, Side Betting +60
Result Phoenix Win: JM System +$100, Side Betting -$3, you up $97

Bet C: Phoenix Risk $1239 / $729 +8, New York $33/30 -5
At this point, you have to just 100% assume that Phoenix will win b/c if you dont think they won't win by bet C, then that means you shouldn't even be playing the system. Thus result

Phoenix Wins: JM Morrison System +$100, Side Bet +$27, total win $127.

Also, the reason why I bet on all the other teams $30 unit is not just for small insurance, but b/c you basically get a 2 point margin to win both bets.

Prime Example: Atlanta after all star break. It was Atlanta visiting Lakers, SAC, Portland.

If you did what I just explained above, you would've went like this.
Bet A against Lakers: JM System -$170, Side Bet Lakers +30
Bet B against Sac: JM System +$270, Side Bet Sac +30

Net Result: JM System +$100, Side Bets +$60
Net Win was $160 on Atlanta Set, instead of $100.



#2 TIP

If you are scared to do a bet because of the -170 (B+3), then pass on it. But always check the 2nd half spread, b/c many times, it ends up being the same spread but a -110/100 bet. So you are basically doing an even bet. Great Value bet. For example.

Say Phoenix vs. Miami is +5. So you would have to do $170/100 to get +8. Then at halftime, Miami is up by 8, and the 2nd half spread is a Pk. Then. I would bet $110/100 on Phoenix at this point. B/C, if miami, goes +1 on the 2nd half, you lose your bet, but you would've lost your JM system bet meaining you would be down $170. Here doing the halftime scenario, you would only lose $110.

If Phoenix goes +1 on the 2nd half, you win $100 only risking $110, instead of at the start of the game JM System 170/100. This is a great value bet.

Many times, it doesn't work out like that at the 2nd half spread, but so far after the all star break, I've seen maybe 7 plays like this where it did.

[netinfo]

I've not even bet more than $50 yet!

I've been keeping my risk per [A] bet at less than 10% of my total account balance.

Cool. Personally, I think the best option would be 1% or 2% of the bankroll, but with many of us who have small bankrolls, and we want to make meaningful increases to it, we sometime do bet 10% and more. I've done that actually more than a few times.

netinfo

[Hard10]

Totally missed the Utah play today. I never got an e-mail for the pick. WTF? I assume the Jazz covered the BetUs line, anyone ?

Oh well, I will double up on N.O. tomorrow to make it up.

[MadStu]

I didn't get an email either. So also missed this bet

[netinfo]

jj28,

Pretty cool tips, thanks!

netinfo

[Vincepcion]

LOL I bought 2 points for the Knicks game, and the last second dunk clinched it for me
The system wins again!

[CashMoney]

LOL I bought 2 points for the Knicks game, and the last second dunk clinched it for me
The system wins again!

The Knicks were not a JM system play.

[Vincepcion]

The Knicks were not a JM system play.

Oh yeah correct...there was only 1 play today - Utah, my bad

[CashMoney]

Oh yeah correct...there was only 1 play today - Utah, my bad

Hey a win is a win.... congrats