Leans for Monday 1/12/09

[danrman]

good god people

for those of you who cant take a loss please get the hell out of our thread.. we dont care about your opinion,we dont care now if you win or lose.. we would just like you people who are coming in our home and talking shiz to get the hell out of here.. you know who you are,,NOW LEAVE!!!!.. we dont give a fuk about what you have to say win lose or draw... LEAVE!!!!
now,,,, ck, go back to what you were doing as if sunday had never happened.. if you want to take a day off cool.. in the future ignore everybody that comes to this thread except the people that have been here all along.. newcomers need to earn their stripes and our respect by contributing to the positive w/ good information and keeping their mouth shut elsewise.. the people that run their mouth on a bad day need to be written down and blacklisted plain and simple.. i suggest we start a list today.. this is a good example of people that cant stand the heat in the kitchen.. they have shown their true character and should be treated accordingly.. we get all the hangerson when ck is on a big streak and when its broken they break like pussies...
if i find a good play which will be one of my "personal plays" i will list it between 5:30 and 6:30 cst.. these plays are 7-2 and 4 in a row.. everybody go back to your normal routine.. everybody has a bad day.. if you cant take it bet less.. c'mon man!!!

[jaymac82980]

Well I will give respect to Dex, because I love the Utah play. I think Indiana is garbage vs a good team(except the lakers - maybe they aren't good). I think that is a great pick. The same with the celts game, I LOVE toronto. the whole b2b scenario is the main reason, plus the celts play today was not good to the end. So basically I have to agree with both of Dex's picks...which I will not count as my own. Since I am east coast, it is late for me, but I will have a pick for you to take tomorrow in the afternoon. Hold onto your money CK, because I will double it for you with my pick tomorrow. The first ever "JM Play".

[ManBearPig]

I was just looking at this and I agree with CK. You can't go wrong with Utah. I think that could be the best play of the night. Indian is coming to the final leg of a 5 game road trip where they are 1-3 (2-2 ATS) Having played just tonight and GS and then traveling up to Utah I could see Indiana being weary for this one. Utah at home rested makes them more dangerous in this one. Factor in the short bench and lack of defense that Indiana plays and this could get ugly fast. The jumpers that fall in the first half may not fall in the second as they may just want to get back home to rest. Utah should win this by 10+ but as we all know anything can happen in the the NBA.

I still like Utah though

[cocknocker]

Here's an example of the kind of research that i want to spend my money on

Indiana is out of gas going up to high altitude on the 2nd game of a back to back. The first game was a squeaker but an outright loss to the Warriors which ended around 9 or so pst. Then there is travel involved to Utah, which is in a different time zone, the Mountain time zone. Indiana has lost by an average of 22 points the last two trips to Salt Lake City. Utah is in third place in their division trying to make up ground and they are playing their last game of the 3 game homestand before heading out on a 3 game road trip. This is Indiana's 5 and last game of a grueling west coast road trip. Curtains for the Pacers big tme

[sprasad03]

Well i aint in this argument but im just posting my picks for everyone. I made a system about 4 days ago and every game is a play. I tested it out and and started betting on friday on it. My spreadsheet only has bets from friday but i was testing it 2 days b4 that. Overall its 27-11-1. My system analyses about 15 stats in addition to momentum, winning streak probability, head to head, back to back, and injuries, just fyi.

there are no lines for toronto and and jazz so ill update later.

But for now NJ covers -7.5, new york +12, chicago +3.5, and washington +2.5. anyways spread points are very important so like if anything goes up on the underdog, its good as always but if the fav goes up they might not be the play anymore.

im gonna check around and see how ppl are bidding, im usually a last minute bidder because most ppl bet on favs.

oo well i could post this though, my system say utah will win 10.5681 pts, and boston will win by 6.1081. so wait on those lines as i will be....

[danrman]

this isnt my "personal play" but looking at the schedule i see that new orleans has games coming up at dallas,at cleve.,at detroit.. they are coming off a blowout of the clippers and new york might be a good play here as a double digit dog of 12+ points.. knicks are 8-2 last 10 as road underdogs

[danrman]

spradsd03 nj plays boston next.. you might want to consider this in your nj play..

[sprasad03]

ya i understand wat your saying but how you prepare for a bigger game is getting hot for it and if they lose they will most def lose to boston. they win tomorrow like predicted, they got momentum.

[nzwarrior]

CK,
I think you've got way the wrong idea bout what I was saying i was directing my comments at those other three you've named. I read your posts most days and would never dream I could do the job you do. However you've named me so ill try put my two cents in. When I said the PC plays normally hit it wasn't a criticism 14-4 is a excellent record, I was just laughing at myself because the two plays that i have made that happened to also be PC plays have both missed. So please could you not put my name in with those haters...
Thanks...
Anyway enough about yesterday you’ve asked me to do a write up and as inexperienced as I am I will give it a go... (Basically using what I’ve learnt from you)



I've seen your home home system and it would have me play the Raptors. However I’m hesitant about fading the Celtics in this situation because they are a great team, who need a big win to get their season back on track. Also i believe the home home system doesn't count in this situation because the Celtics had such a poor fourth quarter today and with Doc Rivers coaching i think the Celtics will have taken alot from todays game also. The two teams have mirrored records this month and i think the raptors are too poor and the Celtics are too good to keep these up, 1-4 & 4-1 SU respectively. Toronto has only a 4-12 record ATS against teams averaging 99+ per game. I don’t normally like taking spreads of 8 or more but my pick for this game:

BOSTON -8 (Of course waiting on injuries)



For the other game I’m interested in today the Blazers visit Chicago. I think I’m going hard on this one. Time to jump on the Blazers while their stocks are low, their ATS record on the road is terrible which is probably part of the reason the line is so low only 6-12 ATS on the road. But come on they meet a sub par Bulls who are only 16-21 on the season. Normally I would get a funny feeling with a spread like this, like the linemakers are trying some of their tricks but I am confident so far that the Blazers are ready to jump back on the winners bus I like the blazers in this one by 6-8. My pick:

PORTLAND -3


Those are the two games that come to my attention...

[cocknocker]

Somebody tell me why New Jersey-7 isn't a good play?

[jamesrg]

Thunder have been a bit better of late but the Nets should still be a solid play

I'm goin with the Jazz as long as the spread isn't out of hand.

I will give consideration to the Blazers and Celts because they look to be solid as well.....The only confliction is that the Blazers are on the road and road games in the NBA always concern me.

[nzwarrior]

I may like jazz too depending on the spread tomorrow, i think they're due to come hot and lets face it the pacers play poor. They are a shooting team so they can shoot the lights out when they're hot but coming off a tough game against the warriors and the lakers before that. I think they will be tired playing thier third game in four days, not sure how much the jazz offence can put up tho to cover a big spread. Id probably take them up to 9.5 to stay off the key # as CK says....

[ManBearPig]

Somebody tell me why New Jersey-7 isn't a good play?

Two things stand out that could deter.

NJ is 8-12 in home games and 1-2 ATS with spreads of 6.5 to 9 pts
OK is 13-5 in road games and 5-1 ATS with spreads of 6.5 to 9 pts.

Also OK is 10-3 ATS vs. teams avg 99+pts/gm.

Given NJ's woes at home and OK's propencity to be in games they shouldn't be a cover for them may not be out of the question. I guess it all depends on what NJ team shows up and maybe if Harris plays that could help their case too.

[danrman]

okc 9-2 ats their last 11 road games but conversly the fav. in this series is 8-1 last 9.. the over is 6-2 last eight meetings in nj.. i see no reason why this one shouldnt go over as just about every okc game goes over.. the over is 11-0 when the thunder are underdogs of 5-10 pts

[sprasad03]

well the market is like almost even on okc and nj ppl buyin both sides, im hopin yall keep bettin okc :-) so i can get nj lower cuz i think they cover at -7, but lower even better.

[cs11787]

CK Utah is one of the picks ive been looking at also. Ind has played tough games lately scoring a ridiculous amount of points. They have to be out of gas. Especially going to Utah, thats almost as bad as playin in Cleveland. Lol.

[cs11787]

I dont really trust NJ at home. On the road is a different story. OKC has been playing greatly lately. Yi is out and so might be Harris. Even if Harris is out though I think Dooling will fill in just fine. Im think maybe OKC first half, NJ comes back 2nd half and rolls. Lets see.

[nzwarrior]

So Dex, you see that I am being grouped with idiots?

Mate you are an idiot and because i tried to tell you that by quoting the success of the PC plays now im being grouped with you... and you are... an idiot...

So please don't call me an idiot, at least i know what a good record is.


(I dont wanna start another whole page of people getting mad at people, but dont call me an idiot)

[CTS5]

New York +12 The knicks have been playing well lately on the road. They like shooting those 3's, and a defense like new orleans will defintely let them do that. It all depends on how well they can hit them, and I'm banking on them hitting them enough to cover 12 points. They lost 3 games on their 4 game road trip, and I am sure they will go all out on their 4th and final away game before going back home. Knicks play well against competition.

Boston - anything This is going to be a blowout for sure. Boston has been very crappy lately as you all know. Linemaker will make the spread very high like around 11 so the public will jump on the plus keeping boston's lack of skill recently. I'm taking boston minus up to 14 tomorrow. They will blow them out. Heavy play tomorrow trying to make my spurs money back.

[NBA Hero]

ram15,

liking your play. You have said it all man. definitely a play in my book.

[vassman86]

Sigh...

First and foremost, this thread is really getting out of hand. Name calling back and forth, and one-liners of no substance lead to an excessive amount of posts. 15 pages? Seriously, 15 pages? The handicapping must've ended on page 6.
Can we limit the posts to relevant material? That is, well-formed opinions of the game.

I just have to say, I watched the game on my HD-PVR and I couldn't believe the amount of bad calls that went against the Spurs last night. One call in particular caught my eye, and I'll make a video of it tomorrow.
Maybe I'll jog someone's memory:

-72-72 late in the third, Bowen's personal foul on Turk (there really shouldn't have been something called there)

-88-87, Spurs lead. The worst was DEFINITELY called against Bonner with 5:01 in the fourth. Bonner was called for a shooting foul on Lewis' 3-pointer. This was absolutely ridiculous, the foul was called as Lewis jumped to take his shot, and BEFORE Bonner even did anything. I'm telling you loud and clear: the ref was calling the foul before Bonner even touched Lewis. I am getting a video to show you guys. Mark my word on that play. If there was ever a fix on a game, this would be it. Calls like this make you not want to bet ever again.

Hopefully I can get the video posted by late tomorrow night. Witness and believe.

[ManBearPig]

Vas - I know the exact plays your talking about and I also thought they were completely rediculous because they were not consistent with anything that was being called on Orlando. I just know both plays led to point (5 pts to be exact) and this definately had an impact at the end. I think I made a couple of the pointless comments you're talking about but they were just too rediculous to not say anything.

With that being said...after all that SAN was still in the game and Parker missed two point blank layups that could've tied the game that he normally makes in his sleep. Orlando was thouroughly outplayed and yet won the game because of a number of these little mishaps mixed with ORL shooting 63% from 3. I almost wish I didn't watch the game because I wouldn't have realized how well SAN played and wouldn't feel as jipped...ph well...next time.

[Luv2Poker]

First and foremost, this thread is really getting out of hand. Name calling back and forth, and one-liners of no substance lead to an excessive amount of posts. 15 pages? Seriously, 15 pages? The handicapping must've ended on page 6.
Can we limit the posts to relevant material? That is, well-formed opinions of the game.

I just have to say, I watched the game on my HD-PVR and I couldn't believe the amount of bad calls that went against the Spurs last night. One call in particular caught my eye, and I'll make a video of it tomorrow.
Maybe I'll jog someone's memory:

-72-72 late in the third, Bowen's personal foul on Turk (there really shouldn't have been something called there)

-88-87, Spurs lead. The worst was DEFINITELY called against Bonner with 5:01 in the fourth. Bonner was called for a shooting foul on Lewis' 3-pointer. This was absolutely ridiculous, the foul was called as Lewis jumped to take his shot, and BEFORE Bonner even did anything. I'm telling you loud and clear: the ref was calling the foul before Bonner even touched Lewis. I am getting a video to show you guys. Mark my word on that play. If there was ever a fix on a game, this would be it. Calls like this make you not want to bet ever again.

Hopefully I can get the video posted by late tomorrow night. Witness and believe.

Its amazing you placed this post. Being Honest, I was thinking the same thing throughout a majority of the game tonight. However, I thought twice about posting due to the negative feedback i may have received, considering a majority of the comments etc were simply complete RHETORIC and childlike tonight. On a lighter not, definately looking forward to the video, personally. I can pinpoint at least 4 possibly 5 fouls called in this game that one would consider ludicrous. I know... i... started to feel a bit uncomfortable. My personal opinion is the game was very well capped. The Spurs simply had too much to overcome. The effort (second half anyway) was there to say the least. (not including of course the absolutely pathetic performance of a point guard who missed two third grade layups at the end (a few airballs too). However, playing at home and leaving themselves in the hole after the first half is tough enough. Then trying to overcome a team shooting absolute lights out from the 24-30ft range, and the refs all in one night was simply too much to ask for. Well on to bigger and better days & nights!! Hopefully I can work and determine a game or two that in the end is enticing enough to play. I'm a bit selective, especially b4 i put my BALLS ON THE TABLE, for someone to have a stab at..LOL

CK..keep up the good work. You know the real deal!

[vassman86]

Bucks vs Wizards

ManBearPig,
thank you for noticing that play! It was absolutely absurd, atrocious. Even the commentators were scratching their heads on many of these calls. I threw the PC Play into a five team parlay, and sadly, the PC Play was the only loss on that ticket, +2700 payout too. We'll get it back. Starting the week with a fresh slate.

One play that catches my eye tomorrow is in the Bucks-Wizards game. Wizards are looking for a win. They let one slip through their fingers in their last game, against the Bobcats late in the fourth. Their first half play was impressive, but they fell apart in the second half. I'm taking a look at the past results between the Bucks and Wizards, and of the five most recent games, Washington has been favoured all five times. More over, Washington has won the first half in four out of five of those meetings (by 6, 7, 13, and 21) and trailed by 3pts once, which was a game played in Milwaukee.
I'm leaning toward Wizards first half.

Milwaukee is thirsty for a win. Bogut's return is plenty of good news for the Bucks. He went 7/8 FG in his return against the Timberwolves. After losing late in the fourth to the Wolves, I think that the Bucks -2.5 will get the job done in this affair.

As for the total, the Bucks have gone over in their past five games. This can be attributed to Bogut's absence; the Bucks really did miss his defensive presence.
Overall, what I'm seeing here is that the Bucks are playing to the pace of their opponents. More importantly, what I'm seeing here is the game total going Under 190. The line should continue to rise, as it opened at 189.

[Pensinger1]

POR @ CHI

POR absolutely owns the Eastern Conference as they stand at 11-2 in out-of-conference match-ups, with losses coming in BOS and at home to ORL, 108-109. CHI is on a current streak of 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. In these team's last three meetings (regardless of city) POR has come out on top by no fewer than 3 points. With this game being the 1st of a 4-gm road trip for POR, and with Utah nipping at their heals, I look for POR to bring nothing short of their A-game. Having said that, POR already scorched CHI earlier this season at home 116-74 (24 hours after CHI lost a hard fought battle in LA to the Lakers). Now, POR travels to CHI where the Bulls play considerably better and are 12-6. This time around CHI is rested, coming off a DD loss to OKC, and might be looking to take their anger out on a team that embarrassed them earlier this year. The public is slamming POR w/ 95% already on board for the Trailblazers to cover. The line has hit -3 on most sites.

EDIT: ram1502 beat me to this one.. his analysis of the game is better than mine.. well played sir!



Lean on POR -3


IND @ UTAH

UTAH comes into this match-up 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Jazz have struggled this year against the Eastern Conference (7-11), but this is the no-defense Indiana Pacers. Indiana is giving up 106.8 points on the road this year compared to that of the Jazz who only give up 94.6 at home. Indiana is 3-6 ATS this year on the back end of a b2b (2-5 ATS on the road, on the tail end of a b2b). As CK mentioned already, Utah has smashed the Pacers in their last two meetings. Anyone smell a Salt Lake City blowout?

UTAH - anything

[lambogb]

locked bucks -2.5, blazers -3

hoping OKC ups to +8 and utah stays as low as possible

[twodiiefor]

hard pick for 2m . seems like too good to be true in port and mil =( but i do like port and mil

[cheesehead004]

Chicago has recently lost to the likes of Minny and OKC. The last 2 wins for Chitown that came against a quality team was Utah both times, once on December 20th, and once on November 24th. The last time Chicago and Portland played, the Blazers won by 42 pts. Portland is in a completely different league than Chicago. The Blazers are the easy pick here.

[Pensinger1]

Chicago has recently lost to the likes of Minny and OKC. The last 2 wins for Chitown that came against a quality team was Utah both times, once on December 20th, and once on November 24th. The last time Chicago and Portland played, the Blazers won by 42 pts. Portland is in a completely different league than Chicago. The Blazers are the easy pick here.

That blowout was solely due to the fact that the Bulls played the Lakers hard the night before. Teams get ruined after playing the Celtics/Lakers/Cavs tough (ESPECIALLY the with less than 24 hours rest). This was a very situational match-up. Portland wins tonight, but not by a DD margin.

[lazipho]

Found some more info which supports the Utaz Jazz:

The Jazz are 6-2 this season against visiting teams playing the second game of a back-to-back set in Utah.

Date Team Result

Nov. 1 L.A. Clip. W, 101-79

Nov. 17 Phoenix W, 109-97

Nov. 19 Milwaukee W, 105-94

Nov. 24 Chicago L, 101-100

Dec. 13 Orlando L, 103-94

Dec. 26 Dallas W, 97-88

Jan. 7 N. Orleans W, 116-90

Sat. Detroit W, 99-82

The loss to Chicago can be taken lightly because the Jazz were missing Williams, Boozer, F Kyle Korver (wrist), F Matt Harpring (back) and C Jarron Collins (elbow). With the other loss to the Magic, dere's no shame losing to the best road team in the NBA.

The Pacers generally peform well as big underdogs on the road by winning ATS against
10/29/08 @ Detroit L 94-100 Regular Season W 10.5
12/20/08 @ Philadelphia W 95-94 Regular Season W 10.5
01/09/09 @ L.A. Lakers L 119-121 Regular Season W 14.5
01/07/09 @ Phoenix W 113-110 Regular Season W 9.5

However, Lakers only turn up for defense when they feel like it, Phoenix plays no D and Detroit usually allows backdoor covers. They tend to perform less well as big underdogs against good defense teams on the road:

12/05/08 @ Cleveland L 73-97 Regular Season L 11
12/03/08 @ Boston L 96-114 Regular Season L 14.5
01/05/09 @ Denver L 115-135 Regular Season L 9.5

Utah are a great defensive team at home only giving up 94.6 points at home while the Pacers give up 107.4 on the road. Combined with Utah's historic advantage against the Pacers, this should be a good spot for the Jazz.

Injury news:
The Jazz practiced without Williams, who stayed home sick, and C.J. Miles, who did rehab work for his sprained ankle.
Miles is doubtful to play tonight; Sloan would have to weigh starting Ronnie Price against a bigger Pacers backcourt.

D-Will should be good to go since he's been playing with the sinus infection the last two games. Even though he's numbers have dropped, he is still doing a good job of organizing the Jazz offense by providing 8 and 9 assists in the last two games against the Hornets and Pistons respectively.

[pho3nix32]

MB @ WW 189.5

"Games Played in Washington:
-16 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996
-3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons"

Im going to ride the OVER in this match. Its normal to lose once in awhile. Keep up the fantastic job CK!

[JohnMorr08]

CK... There is only one "JM" play on the board. And it will most likely be Portland ML. I'm waiting on Greek to release the ML. Otherwise I'll buy 1.5 and take Portland -1.5.

A bets are hitting around 80%

B bets are 100%

[SamsNCharge99]

CK...I understand you position and opinion on my next contest. Don't worry about it. It's just a friendly thing and if you don't wanna, I can't force you.

Good Luck on your picks like always and let's just have fun and DO WORK.

[zackattack]

ESPN BOTTOM LINE
there were no plays yesterday, it looks like when espn has a full schedule of games it doesn't provide writeups on the scoreboard. someone said that espn was on orlando yesterday but that may have been the announcers on the tv channel, i only use the info obtained from the bottom line. thx

[zackattack]

i really don't understand all this critcism of ck yesterday?........if you look at his post he had winners with boston first half and game, and steelers, he backed off the giants and lost with the pc play. it would seem that if you followed his plays and bet the pc play heavier then the rest you still should have been about even. i think the complainers prob lost with there own picks and tried to recoup it all on the pc play and when it lost they got angry. the pc plays are still hitting at a great rate, and nobody ever claimed they couldn't lose.
CK, i think i speak for the whole board when i say this, for about a week now you have been letting the board pick a lot of your games, frankly i look at this thread for YOUR plays. can you just go back to posting your plays? i like others input but they don't have your winning track record. by the way i was wondering why you didn't comment on my writeup of taking the over in spurs game?.....the line movement plus the trends favored it big time.......wish you would have at least looked at it. thanks, zack