Leans for Monday 1/12/09

[joanapoker]

Somebody tell me why New Jersey-7 isn't a good play?

Ck it is a good play! But as we all know OKC is a good covering machine....but only when the spread is higher than +7.5 dog!
If we only consider spreads under +7.5 the OKC is 6-7 ATS. Add to that, the need of NJ make a good game at home....and what better team to go against than the Thunders (2-16 SU on the road). for safety I'm buying 1.5 points and already locked:

NJ -5.5

The other play is obviously POR-2

[joanapoker]

And for the sake of this good and plesant thread, stop crying about one LOSS!

PC Plays are an amazing 14-4 who can't top that?? And also the track record of CK is impressive, if it wasn't why in hell was there +-7000 people everyday reading his own thread?? Add to that the precious "plus" value that dexter, bigmoney.... and others bring to this thread!
I'm making more money than ever at the NBA/NFL/college and 70% of my bets come from this thread. As simple as that!

[zackattack]

BUCKS/WIZ
BUCKS
5-0 ats last 5 as favorite
8-1 ats vs southeast
5-1 ats following a loss
11-4 ats on 1 day rest
WIZ
1-4 ats last 5 following a loss
2-8 ats last 10 following a loss
1-4 ats last 5 as a dog
7-19 ats on 1 day rest
UPDATE I AM NOW OFF THIS PLAY
bucks -2.5 is the play

[Netprofit]

- Oklahoma has been covering so many (19-7 in the last 26, 9-2 in the last 11 road), I feel that they have been playing above themselves for a long period and especially hard in the last couple of weeks, even winning a few SU (3 of last 7), it is time they give less effort in a game after falling behind by 10 and not chasing hard to get it back.
- With the status of Harris being probable and Yi already out, books opened the line at -7 (it was -8 in September with NJ also at home), it means either Harris will play or if he will not, it is still expected that others (Carter) will step up big and NJ will cover.

NJ -7

[zackattack]

KNICKS/HORNETS..........MY BEST BET OF THE DAY
KNICKS
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS ON 1 DAY REST
UNDER IS 4-0 ATS LAST 4 AS DOG
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS WHEN OPPONENT SCORES OVER 100 LAST GAME
UNDER IS 6-0 ON MONDAYS?
UNDER 6-0 LAST 6......UNDER 4-0 AFTER A LOSS.....THIS GOES ON AND ON...\ETC
HORNETS
under is 5-1 last 6 ats as home fav
under is 8-2 last 10 ats as a fav
under is 5-1-1 ats on mondays?
CK you will like the following reason for playing under
looks like the knicks and hornets like to party on sundays......they both go under on mondays.......being there was plenty of football action yesterday and both teams were off, gotta figure they were doing a bit of boozin yesterday........UNDER 201.5 IS THE PLAY TODAY!!!

[JaySotto]

Hey Ck, i've been following your thread for sometime now.. And i just want to say thank you for all the help! I just recently registered and i just want to say thank you for all the help! My picks for tomorrow are

Was- I believe that this team is all fired up, and having the worst record in the east... They would want to prove their critics wrong, especially that they still have the support of the home crowd.
NJ- Thunder has been covering these past games. However, since this team still lacks experience and balls, i believe that they will burnout in the stretch of the game. Moreover, since Yi is out, look for NJ players to step-up and deliver. Defense is still a problem for the NETS but OKL is a bad road team.. so if okl doesnt get a nice rhythm from durant.. they will fall apart.
Noh- Since that loss at utah, look for a big game from NOH, ny hasnt really faced this team yet.. so look for a better chemistry of a team beat a mongrel of a team
Por- Roy is back. I think this one's a bit dangerous to play. I believe that Chi is cooking up something for portland.. but hey roy is back.. portland will be excited to get a good win again.

oh and parlay-por,noh,nj

[cocknocker]

My bad, zack-town

But I was already fully vested yesterday, so I stopped looking into potential plays, but you don't have to worry about that today, lol! I am all ears. So far, I like cheesehead004 & JohnMorr's play of Portland. I am very familiar with the system, and it speaks for its'self. Several others have given perfect reasons to take the Jazz.

danrman has come up with a perfect trend for Oklahoma City and the Nets to go OVER, and I like that one a lot.

CTS5's game of the Knicks has the best line movement of the day, but it is so hard for me to place a wager on the Knicks. They are like a pack of Skittles. You never know what you're gonna get out of them...And when they get too far behind, they just flat out give up....

Pho3nix32,

Has a good situational play for Milwaukee/Washington to go over the number


So far though, I'm going to book play number 1 because i see the public is on it like roaches on an old candy bar. And play number 1 is:

Portland-3

The line has moved already from an opening of 2 to where it is now at 3. As JohnMorr pointed out this system play is hitting at an 80% clip. cheesehead004 points to Chicago's lack of playing well against quality opponents and also that the Bulls still have nightmares about the Blazers' last trip to the Windy City. One look at the Power Ranking shows that the Blazers should be favored by such a margin, so point buying should not be too necessary. I would have shaved my line back down to 2, but the Blazers still would have needed to win by 4 in order for my ticket to cash this game.

I am rocking with the play offered by

JohnMorr08
cheesehead004
pensinger1
ram1502
lambogb
twodiiefor
nzwarrior
joanapoker
SlicWilly3

PORTLAND-2

[SlicWilly3]

PORTLAND -2 1/2 is a GREAT PLAY fella's!
It's hard to guage Portland on the road becaus ein the last few weeks they have only played 3 road games. They lost all 3 but they were to 3 top tier teams, LAKERS, DENVER, and UTAH.
It's much easier to guage the hapless BULLS though imo. They have played there last 4 at HOME to 4 LOSER teams and only won 2 of those games. They beat SAC and WASHINGTON, and LOST to MINNY and OK CITY.
PORTLAND SHOULD WIN THIS GAME EASILY....THE BULLS ARE FAR OUTMATCHED IN THIS ONE FELLA'S

2 COLLEGE GAMES I LOVE:
TEXAS LONGHORNS +4 1/2 and on the ML +175. Yes they are on the road at Oklahome, but are the much better all around team. TEXAS is 5-0 Staight up and ATS Vs Oklahoma over the last 3 seasons, with 2 of those straight up W's on the road at OKLA. Texas just has their #, and I don't look for that to change tonight. Texas will win again.
I also like Notre Dame +6 1/2 at L'Ville. Mainle because of consistency here fella's. L'Ville is just too inconsistent to be giving 6 1/2 pts to a top 25 team. Could L'Ville cover?? Sure....But they could also outright lose this game. I'll take my chances with the pts here. ND +6 1/2

[sprasad03]

nj just dropped to -6.5, dont think it will get lower as public is evenin out.

[cocknocker]

I am combing the thread now looking for more! I am liking the information that I am getting about New Jersey, and I already like Utah, and no one has talked me out of that play, and as I say that the opening line came out at 7:30am pst at 10, and it is already up to 11. I smell a blowout in that one...

[jaymac82980]

Nobody has noticed that Boston line has been released at BOS -11??? home/home series, close game yesterday (bos wins - yet blows a comfy lead), Is Boston capable of covering 11 pts? The loser of the first usually wins the second, and even if that isn't the case, I don't think BOS can hold onto 11 pts for the entire game. Is Perk back or something (wouldn't affect the line that much)? why is the line so high?

[sprasad03]

Nobody has noticed that Boston line has been released at BOS -11??? home/home series, close game yesterday (bos wins - yet blows a comfy lead), Is Boston capable of covering 11 pts? The loser of the first usually wins the second, and even if that isn't the case, I don't think BOS can hold onto 11 pts for the entire game. Is Perk back or something (wouldn't affect the line that much)? why is the line so high?

ya boston will not cover 11..way too much

[procapperpicks]

Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards

It’s incredible but the last victory of Washington Wizards was against Cavaliers on 3th January, 10 days later the Wizards try to break the inconsistency and try to return to the victories, the playoffs are still a hope but the main job is to put consistency on the team, Mike James start great but the last 6 games he’s playing bad with numbers below of 40% FG, the team need him back to come to the victories.

Both teams have 2 main stars and they depend too much of their perfomance, on Wizards we have Butler and Jaminson, and for Bucks we have Jefferson and Redd.

Wizards have 5-14 at home and Bucks 7-15 away. Both teams have similiar records.

The Bucks occupy the last place who give the admission to the playoffs so an Wizards win there could give them the hope and the dream, remember that the eastern conference is very much more weaker than western conference.

Last Year the Wizards do the playoffs without Arenas, why should this year be different? Bet on Wizards here, it’s a must win game for them.

3 units on Washington Wizards @ 2.20 Betfair

[jaymac82980]

I have even looked into the recent wins for boston, but how many have been double digit wins lately...I'm blinded by the recent string of losses. I don't think that Boston will lose at home, they are great at home, and they played toronto well yesterday, they just fell apart - like they have been lately. 11 is way too much for boston to cover. Pierce is still hung over from the Canadian strip clubs he was at last night, and Scal might not play due to a sunburn he got walking to the bus (not really).

[MJ]

KNICKS/HORNETS..........MY BEST BET OF THE DAY
KNICKS
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS ON 1 DAY REST
UNDER IS 4-0 ATS LAST 4 AS DOG
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS WHEN OPPONENT SCORES OVER 100 LAST GAME
UNDER IS 6-0 ON MONDAYS?
UNDER 6-0 LAST 6......UNDER 4-0 AFTER A LOSS.....THIS GOES ON AND ON...\ETC
HORNETS
under is 5-1 last 6 ats as home fav
under is 8-2 last 10 ats as a fav
under is 5-1-1 ats on mondays?
CK you will like the following reason for playing under
looks like the knicks and hornets like to party on sundays......they both go under on mondays.......being there was plenty of football action yesterday and both teams were off, gotta figure they were doing a bit of boozin yesterday........UNDER 201.5 IS THE PLAY TODAY!!!

I am taking the Knicks +12 over the New Orleans Hornets. I pay a certain handicapper, who I will not mention. He only plays Basketball and he has been over 70% so far this season. If this helps anyone then please use it.

[MJ]

KNICKS/HORNETS..........MY BEST BET OF THE DAY
KNICKS
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS ON 1 DAY REST
UNDER IS 4-0 ATS LAST 4 AS DOG
UNDER IS 5-0 ATS WHEN OPPONENT SCORES OVER 100 LAST GAME
UNDER IS 6-0 ON MONDAYS?
UNDER 6-0 LAST 6......UNDER 4-0 AFTER A LOSS.....THIS GOES ON AND ON...\ETC
HORNETS
under is 5-1 last 6 ats as home fav
under is 8-2 last 10 ats as a fav
under is 5-1-1 ats on mondays?
CK you will like the following reason for playing under
looks like the knicks and hornets like to party on sundays......they both go under on mondays.......being there was plenty of football action yesterday and both teams were off, gotta figure they were doing a bit of boozin yesterday........UNDER 201.5 IS THE PLAY TODAY!!!

I am taking the Knicks +12 over the New Orleans Hornets. I pay a certain handicapper, whose name I will not mention. He only plays Basketball and he has been over 70% so far this season and he only has 1 pick per day. If this helps anyone then please use it.

[Wilforth]

Hornets -12
Raptors +9
Portland -3.5
Toronto/Boston Over 187
OKC/New Jersey 1H Over 100
Indiana/Utah 1H Over 114.5

[killersweet]

Well, Raptors played a stinker yesterday afternoon, but they gained some confidence on the 4th quarter. They have been pretty much playing the same level at home and on the road. So I think they will show up tonight to make the cover. Also I don’t see Bosh having another bad day.
I’ll gladly take Toronto +10.
And I’ll sprinkle some on Toronto ML As well.

[jaymac82980]

boston now -10. dropping 1 pt in 30 minutes

[sprasad03]

already got em at 11, the indiana game is +11, i think that will drop as well

[2qwik]

I don't know about this line movement with Utah. Opening at -10 and went to -11 and then recently went to -10.5. Just an FYI for people who didnt see the recent line movement.

[jaymac82980]

Wilforth, I love your over picks.

I am thinking about taking the celts -6 1st half, then the raptors + 10 for the game. This is just a thought, but maybe it will be a nice repeat of last night (and the last few games)

[chalupa]

cocknocker been following you for couple weeks. my friend told me about you because he been winning following you. you can't win them all but you are pretty close to that.

[nonsense48]

GOOD DAY GENTS, i can't add anymore to what has already been said about the games i've decided to play this eve. utah-11 this will be a blowout no question. port-2' blazers run rampant over chi. as usual. milw-2' bucks cover against sub 500 teams and this won't be any different at wash. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. P.S. i'm riding with DEX on toronto getting DD's @ bos. the home and home rule works. PEACE AND BLESSED BE

[Willie Bee]

cocknocker been following you for couple weeks. my friend told me about you because he been winning following you. you can't win them all but you are pretty close to that.

Welcome to SBR Love the username, one of my favorite TexMex snacks. Hope to see you around here often; if nothing else keep logging in to check cocknocker's plays.

[chalupa]

anybody like the knicks getting +12 tonight. i am new here but been following everybody for a couple of weeks.

[nonsense48]

by the way, i lost my left nut yesterday but my plan is to win back a couple of nuts today so i'm cool with it. PEACE

[bumppinee]

I'm liking the bucks -2 against the wizzies, washington is 1-6 straight up in it's last 6 games and has a host of injuries at it's key positions with antwain jamison being day to day and , also the over for this game is looking nice at 191, the total has gone over 7 of the last 8 times i dont see any defense being played in this game.

1. MIl -2
2.Mil/Was over 191

My last play will be for the portland trailblazers to run wild on the confused chicago bulls, Derric rose in my opinion is not living up to all the hype, he is avergaing 13 points in his last 5 games and playing a superb guard in brandon roy is cause for an immediate let down today, so with that said im on

portland - 3

[Killer Chihuahua]

not my research but thought i would share

Jazz -10
The Jazz are starting to get used to the idea of playing without All-Star forward Carlos Boozer (20.5-11.7) and they had better. The Jazz are 14-11 without Boozer (22-15 overall) after beating the Pistons in Salt Lake City Saturday night (99-82). Okur (17.2-8.4) is having one of his best seasons and Paul Millsap has been just terrific. The third-year player from La Tech had his run of 19 consecutive double-doubles snapped on Saturday but is averaging 15.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG on the year. The Pacers lost 120-117 last night in Oakland to Golden State and are only 6-15 SU (11-10 ATS) on the road. However, there's more than a little good news coming out of Indiana. Granger (26.4-5.1-3.4) has developed into one of the NBA's best small forwards plus Mike Dunleavy, coming off a career-year (19.1-5.2-3.5), is finally getting back on the court (knee). He played for the first time this season on Jan 7 and in his three games back, has averaged 15.3-3.3-3.3. The bad news for the Pacers is that this is the team's final game of a five-game, eight-day road trip and will be the first time Dunleavy would have to play on back-to-back nights (we'll see?). The Jazz are 15-4 SU (12-7 ATS) at home and even without Boozer, are tough to beat here in Salt Lake City. The Jazz are completing a four-game homestand with this game (3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS) and have shot 51.3 percent while averaging 111.3 PPG in their first three games. That doesn't bode well for an Indiana team which allows 106.7 PPG on the season (ranking 29th of 30 teams), including a rather pathetic 121.5 PPG over the first four games of this current trip. .



Knicks-NO under
The Knicks have gone under the number in 6 straight games. The Hornets have gone under in 10 of their last 15. If this game was at NY with this line, it would be an automatic overs play, but since it is at New Orleans, where the Hornets are only allowing 89.3 ppg we'll take the under. NY is really struggling and hasn't scored over the century mark in 3 straight games. The Under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 Monday games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 road games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 games as an underdog, and 5-0 in the Knicks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The Under is also 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 games as a favorite. .

[roasthawg]

Knicks-NO under
The Knicks have gone under the number in 6 straight games. The Hornets have gone under in 10 of their last 15. If this game was at NY with this line, it would be an automatic overs play, but since it is at New Orleans, where the Hornets are only allowing 89.3 ppg we'll take the under. NY is really struggling and hasn't scored over the century mark in 3 straight games. The Under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 Monday games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 road games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 games as an underdog, and 5-0 in the Knicks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The Under is also 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 games as a favorite. .

I'm on this over here...I got it early at 201 though. NY was getting some very high totals recently but the market over corrected itself here...this line is too low imo.

[cocknocker]

Good eye, 2qwik,

I don't see that line going below 10 though, Utah has all of the things necessary working in their favor tonight with respect to the issues that Indiana has to overcome in a short amount of time. I am beginning to think that I may end up playing Utah but at 9.5, which suits me just fine.

The board seems to think that Boston won't cover tonight. I feel that the only way that Boston doesn't cover is if they lose interest in the Raptors like they did in yesterdays' game in Canada. Other than that, the same set of issues that were present for three quarters of yesterdays' game will be present again today. Let's not forget that the Raptors actually COVERED yesterday or pushed in some cases. So since the rule of thumb is to take the team that failed to get the cover the previous night, it would stand to reason that Boston woud cover today. With only 27% of the public on the side of the Green Machine, it would be hard for me to not take them, as it obviously is not a play that is popular with the public. What i saw was the Celtics built up a big lead pulled out the starters and lost interest in Toronto yesterday. Meanwhile Toronto kept their starters on the floor and made a comeback against the Celtics bench. When the starters for Boston came back into the game, the lead was already trimmed down to 10, and the momentum was clearly on the side of the Raptors, and the Celtics starters still only lost 4 points to the Raptors in spite of the fact. It takes a lot of energy to come back from 20 down in just one quarter, especially the 4th quarter. The Celtics starters were resting most of that time, and the Raptors starters were logging heavy minutes.

Listen the Celtics will be at home and of course get the majority of the calls that they didn't get yesterday while Toronto made their comeback. If they were favored by 7 in Toronto yesterday, the home court advantage today should at the very least produce a three point edge for them on top of that 7. I have to fade the public on this one and roll with the Celtics.



Gentlemen, I am starting up the lawnmower.


Play#2

cs11787
lambogb
nzwarrior
CTS5

Boston-9.5 (bought a hook) Out of the $1500.00 I am spending, this will be the biggest play

[DaChozen1]

Reverse Line Movements Today

New Jersey opened up at -7.5 over OKC and 64% of the Public is on New Jersey but the line dropped to 6.5 (Full Point Drop)

Milwaukee opened up at -3 over Washington and 63% of the Public is on Milwuakee but the line dropped to 2.5 (1/2 Point Drop)

[roasthawg]

I'm liking the bucks -2 against the wizzies, washington is 1-6 straight up in it's last 6 games and has a host of injuries at it's key positions with antwain jamison being day to day and , also the over for this game is looking nice at 191, the total has gone over 7 of the last 8 times i dont see any defense being played in this game.

1. MIl -2
2.Mil/Was over 191

I'm on this over with you, looks solid!

[twitch66]

I was up nicely after the college bowl games... unfortunately I got overconifident, bet too much and took a huge hit after this weekends nfl playoffs.

Based on information from this website and the following game predictions from sportsline.com

NBA GAMES FOR 01/12/2009
Milwaukee 95 Washington 90
Boston 103 Toronto 91
New Jersey 96 Oklahoma City 85
New Orleans 100 New York 90
Portland 100 Chicago 99
Utah 95 Indiana 88
Selection record:
Last night: 4-3 (57.1%)
Week to date: 37-15 (71.2%)
Year to date: 385-167 (69.7%)
________________________________________ _____________

*** here are the picks i just placed***

New Jersey Nets -6½
Milwaukee Bucks -2½
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards Under 191
Utah Jazz -10
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz Under 220
Portland Trail Blazers -3
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Chicago Bulls Over 193

and a 4 Team Teaser
Milwaukee Bucks +2½
New Jersey Nets -1½
Utah Jazz -5
Portland Trail Blazers +2

ck i have been following your threads for awhile and thats why i came here today. I trust your ability to cap and your proven record. nobody ever gets it right everytime (I am proof). thats why we spread the wealth around and never bet it all on one horse, don't let others get you down. I hope you start posting you picks again soon.

BOL

[chipper8888]

Somebody tell me why New Jersey-7 isn't a good play?

That ones a no play for me....NJ are so unpredictable at home, my old high school gets a bigger attendance at home than the Nets so who wouldnt want to play there !!!

The Jazz on the other hand - Now theres a good home team

Will tail you boys on Portland