Leans for Tuesday 12/23/08

shoebox · 12-23-08, 01:10 AM

No ones gonna like this one but me. Im breakin all the rules, leaning toward Houston plus the points. Houston has been playin well and im feeling a small Houston ML too. I know this is Houstons third road game. However, Clev just played a long 4 gm road trip, add in the holidays and I think Houston might be able to steal one from these guys. Plus Houston is 7-1 ats against Clev fellas!!!!

Spoon · 12-23-08, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by shoebox

No ones gonna like this one but me. Im breakin all the rules, leaning toward houston plus the points. Houston has been playin well and im feeling a small houston ML to. I know this is Houstons third road game, but clev just played a long 4 gm road trip, add in the holidays and I think houston might be able to steal one from these guys. Plus houston is 7-1 ats against clev fellas!!!!

I was just about to tell you to clean up your post, but I noticed you beat me to it, lol.

shoebox · 12-23-08, 01:15 AM

Spoon,

Houston gets the job done tomorrow im already sold.

wangichu · 12-23-08, 01:15 AM

may or may not return to elaborate, but the bulls always play the pistons tough

CHI +6.5

home to home flop

POR -7.5

NJ is much better on the road, especially catching points + what CK said.

NJ +?

probably riding hot hands in

CLE -7.5
BOS -12

probably tail CK
UTAH

Spoon · 12-23-08, 01:16 AM

@Shoe: I’ll be honest, man, I had a rough day on Monday. Although I didn’t lose money I didn’t make a fraction of what I usually average per day. I need to really look at these games for Tuesday and smash these books good. Some of these games could go either way in a hurry so I need to look at some numbers.

nonsense48 · 12-23-08, 01:21 AM

i'm rollin' with clev and bos @home until they dump. they both seem to be on a mission.

nick2060 · 12-23-08, 01:23 AM

Theres not much action going on christmas eve and christmas so i think we all really gotta hit them hard today. First glace im really liking Cleveland, although i did buy a point to get down to 6. Might end up with a push but it feels a lot safer than 7. Both teams have been playing good right now, but homefield advantage really seems to pump up clevelands defense and they just seem to have more energy. Houston has a lot of guys who are questionable which means there a hurting team right now. Eventually relying on less bodies or hurting bodies is gonna catch up with them. Also gonna bring up there last 3 losses:
@ La Clippers
@ Memphis
@ Denver
In the past 10 games theyve beaten golden state and minnesota on the road. Theory im getting to is whether they can really play good teams on the road and hang in there. Guess we'll see tommorrow. Good luck everybody

nonsense48 · 12-23-08, 01:23 AM

i'll study a few more later. time to rest the eyes for now tho.

pubster77 · 12-23-08, 01:25 AM

CK, I found it interesting what you wrote in Mondays thread about fading yourself by betting the other teams moneyline.

So do you mean that in addition to betting UTA -1.5 you would also bet MIL moneyline?

How big are your ML bets relative to your pointspread bets in situations like these?

shoebox · 12-23-08, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by nick2060

Theres not much action going on christmas eve and christmas so i think we all really gotta hit them hard today. First glace im really liking Cleveland, although i did buy a point to get down to 6. Might end up with a push but it feels a lot safer than 7. Both teams have been playing good right now, but homefield advantage really seems to pump up clevelands defense and they just seem to have more energy. Houston has a lot of guys who are questionable which means there a hurting team right now. Eventually relying on less bodies or hurting bodies is gonna catch up with them. Also gonna bring up there last 3 losses:
@ La Clippers
@ Memphis
@ Denver
In the past 10 games theyve beaten golden state and minnesota on the road. Theory im getting to is whether they can really play good teams on the road and hang in there. Guess we'll see tommorrow. Good luck everybody

True there losses came to a hot Denver, and mildly hot Clipper team. They match up well with Cleveland plus they always play them tough. The long road trip adds to my favor too. I know ill be on my own on this one and im good with that.

GL

spal2811 · 12-23-08, 01:30 AM

first i gotta thank ck for his nuggets and raptors picks

i think i am going to take portland tonight before the line inflates tomorrow and buy a full point or maybe 2 to get it down to 5.5

any thoughts
should i even buy any points? i think portland could blow this one open

pubster77 · 12-23-08, 01:33 AM

i think the line will move in denvers favour because they won tonite.

BigMoneyMan · 12-23-08, 01:34 AM

Originally Posted by Smacksmiter
I must admit, with some great appreciation, that the research and information of the Ck mafia has helped me the most of anything I have ever seen on the internet...

This is top rate...and the spirit of camaraderie here can not be beat.

Its great to find bruthas in sports betting who don't have push their egos around in a wheelbarrow...here, its all about beating the books and helping others to learn how to do the same...

Help each other...help our families have a better Xmas...and a better quality of life...

This is a much better return than the stock market anyways...and of course, the taxes are much much lower...
True but you can make some cash in the market but here is how you do it. Always remember that with a option that you only half to be right 10% of the time. The thing to remember is that a stock will go down much faster than it goes up. I have a minute so I will explain and if you want to private message me I will respond. As I explained to Ck earlier the best pay in stocks is a saddle option. For example if there is a drug that is pending approval from the FDA that is in trials. Lets say a new cancer drug you buy a option on the call which it betting on he stock to go up and a put witch is betting on the stock to go down. So say Roche is announcing the new drug and the FDA approval after trial will be announced tomorrow you buy both. The reason you buy a option is because instead of taking a grand and buying 10 shares at 100 dollars you own 1000 dollars of stock and hope for the right movement. You buy a option which is a right to buy or sell for the next 30 60 90 days longer is better. and you control 10000 shares or 50,000 of stock both ways. So if there is no approval and the stock goes down $20 to 80 then you make 10,000, and lost 500. If it goes up to 120 a share upon approval you made 10,000 and lost 500. You just want movement. Now lets say you were lucky enough to pick how the approval was going to go and you bought the stock with the same movement you would have made 200 for 1000 investment.
I did this right before the Martha Stewart verdict and when she was found guilty her stock fell from 100 a share to 20 dollars. I had 10gs invested and made 80 k in one day plus a insurance security of 40 for the insurance losses(should have bought totall covereage). I will explain that later. But trust me when I say if you have a 401K you should have a insurance policy on the loss stop.

I am cramming allot info in here but the bankruptcy of JP Morgan was because of this principle. Head fund managers that have muti billions of stock in a company buy these policies. Like me buying a life insurance policy against someone and then sooting them in the head so I can collect. JP Morgan was not bankrupt but here is how it went down. They controlled say 10 bil or 10% controlling stock so the flood the market with sell orders. So the stock goes down but before they do this they spend 100000 to by a insurance policy for the 10bil on the company. Basically this means that if the company that is totally solvent goes bankrupt they collect. thats why it so cheap. then they dump the sock which sell the stock in a free fall. they buy more insurance policies, do a press release, mom and pop get scared and sell stock keeps going down. JP Morgans operating capital is 0. So they can't call the margins on deposits.(this is any bank) The FDIC as to step in and so on. The problem is the SEC is not regulated or there is no disclosure on puts or betting on the stick to go down and only on puts.

A side note: All you deposits and all Federally insured instituons are on a 20% margin. That means that they only have to carry 20% of all deposits in the bank at any given time. So if you have 10000 they have 2000 in the bank to cover it. Banks have a daily ledger balance which means a peice of paper thats says how much each one owes the other at the end of the day. So Ck send me a 1000 thank you check for all the money I made him this year and its drawn on Bak of america and I deposit into WAMU no cash tranfer takes place ust a IOU or UOMe

Anyway to make a long story short. There are people that control billions of dollars controlling the market and the economy. So what does it mean to you and how can you make big money. Well if you have say 2 million stock of company X say GM or GE. Unless the hedge funds are making a run they have to ease in and out of plays if they don't the flood the market and the stock crashes. You can move faster and have more liquidity then them.

I know i typed a novel hear but if you understand the concept you can private me and I will help. If you don't its not for you.

PS I am not a broker so I make nothing of you.

cnleaf · 12-23-08, 01:45 AM

CHI. It seems CHI owns DET's number, altough I know DET has lost two games.

LAL 1st half. Ride with LAL carryover effect.
LAL ML also. Because they have KOBE.I have got to play LAL as an underdog. I cant resist myself.

BOS under. BOS has never gone over more than twice this season. Also game between these two are 12-5 under.

HOU. HOU plays tough with CLE in the history. Also HOU has great matchup in every position against CLE. CLE has never won HOU more than 6 pts in recent year.

Let me know what u think, CK.

El Degeneroso · 12-23-08, 01:50 AM

Originally posted by spal2811

first i gotta thank ck for his nuggets and raptors picks

i think i am going to take portland tonight before the line inflates tomorrow and buy a full point or maybe 2 to get it down to 5.5

any thoughts
should i even buy any points? i think portland could blow this one open

Plus one on the thank you to CK, went 3-0 tonight riding his NBA picks.

Not a lot I like tomorrow, taking Cleveland -7.5 (So far this season I'm 8-2 ATS when I take them) and leaning towards Utah -1. Will be anxious to read everyone else's thoughts. New here and I really enjoy the input and enthusiasm towards each other that all here show.

Smacksmiter · 12-23-08, 01:50 AM

Appreciate the information bigmoneyman and you are accurate in all you say ...I used to do quite a bit of stuff in the market in my own small way...but like I say, you always have big brother wanting his share of the take...

I see true capitalism here in the sports betting world...the stock market/world markets...they are all a glorified monopoly game and as you say, the big boys with billions control the game...so basically you must guess what they are going to do and play it with them...guess wrong, and they can overwhelm you easily...

Sports betting is the way for me now...when I win its all mine, when I lose its all mine...I own it and nobody tells me how to play my money...or spend my winnings.

Life...Liberty...and the pursuit of happiness as the founding fathers wanted it...free of interference...

danrman · 12-23-08, 01:51 AM

boston goes on the road to play the lakers christmas day and san antonio goes on the road for a big game christmas day vs. phoenix.. san antonio is coming off cover a big double digit cover.. its tough but i like philly and minny.. thats my 2 cents so far if anybody cares

CTS5 · 12-23-08, 02:14 AM

Lakers play very well against new orleans. I'm liking the lakers as Dogs tomorrow. They're going to take care of business.

NBA Hero · 12-23-08, 02:15 AM

ck,
got no feeling for cle? they still havent lost at their home. it would help LJ23 if big ben would play like he used to.

CTS5 · 12-23-08, 02:17 AM

Also, people are gonna jump on memphis tomorrow because they're a better team. I see dallas blowing them out tomorrow especially after a hard fought game with the lakers the night before.

Spoon · 12-23-08, 02:26 AM

Although Orlando is my team and makes me the most money, I have been doing really well with the Cavs this season too. While the Cavs are a different team this year from years past, there are some disturbing statistics that really make you think twice before laying money on them today. I’m not saying I won’t wager on them because I will need to do more work on this, but what I came across so far is troubling to say the least. After taking about 15 minutes or so with the data I come up with the following… For starters, The Cavs have serious trouble with Houston regardless where the game is played – home or away. They didn’t play against each other this season, but dating back to 2003 and up until last season, the Cavs are 2-8 against Houston overall. When they host Houston on their home court the Cavs are 1-4. They have only averaged 86 points per game against Houston at home while Houston averaged 91 points. Moreover, it does not get any better when they play at Houston either. The Cavs are also 1-4 in Houston against the Rockets averaging 82 points per game while Houston averaged 93 points per game on their home court. They are coming into this game with 2 losses in a row against Houston, yet the line is -7.5? I’m not trying to discourage anyone, but a lot of people think it’s safe playing a team just because they are on fire and fail to realize those teams they give them the most trouble historically.

As always we really don't know the outcome, but we can give our predictions. Heck, last night I was off by 1 point in the Sacramento game so there you go.

GL in your choice and who knows, I might be on the Cavs too when I finish analyzing the matchup.

BigMoneyMan · 12-23-08, 02:34 AM

Originally posted by Smacksmiter

Appreciate the information bigmoneyman and you are accurate in all you say ...I used to do quite a bit of stuff in the market in my own small way...but like I say, you always have big brother wanting his share of the take...

I see true capitalism here in the sports betting world...the stock market/world markets...they are all a glorified monopoly game and as you say, the big boys with billions control the game...so basically you must guess what they are going to do and play it with them...guess wrong, and they can overwhelm you easily...

Sports betting is the way for me now...when I win its all mine, when I lose its all mine...I own it and nobody tells me how to play my money...or spend my winnings.

Life...Liberty...and the pursuit of happiness as the founding fathers wanted it...free of interference...

Right on Bother!! CK has become a freind of mine over the last year or so and it pains me to see him upset. I have never met him in person but soon that will be corrected. I will tell you what I do know about him he is not doing this to make money but to help others, he is a hell of a father, he loves styles,(and Gentlemen Jack) a class act, and pretty much a all around good guy
His only fault if it is one is that he cares to much about others opinions, even people on the thread. That upsts me beacuase I know it upsets him, I just don't know why. He's listened to my drunken BS about my ex girlfriend fiasco and has never judged me. I know this sounds weird but he is someone that I respect and I wish I could be more like.

Wilforth · 12-23-08, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by cnleaf

CHI. It seems CHI owns DET's number, altough I know DET has lost two games.

LAL 1st half. Ride with LAL carryover effect.
HOU. HOU plays tough with CLE in the history. Also HOU has great matchup in every position against CLE. CLE has never won HOU more than 6 pts in recent year.

Throw that history out through the window. This current Cleveland are unlike the Cleveland of the past and Houston aren't yet at the level they were last year. A well rested Cleveland will beat the hell out of a road-weary Houston. Houston have a way of "folding up" in the 2H when they aren't winning. Cleveland are among the few teams still playing D.

Results:
Cleveland covers
Game goes Under.

cocknocker · 12-23-08, 02:36 AM

CTS5,

I see that Dallas beats the Grizzlies by 10 points on average at home. And teams that play over their heads and cover against a team with a winning percentage over 70% usually don't do well in their next game. With this being a back to back special, Memphis is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ats losing by an average of 10 points per game in their last 5 such occasions. But put them on the road, and it gets even worse. They have gone 2-5 ats and lose by 13.5 on average.

Dalls on their end failed to get the cover in their last two home games (Denver & OKC), and they are more than ahppy to see the Grizzlies coming to town.

CTS5,

I am using your play tomorrow. You win the Play of the Day sweepsteaks

BigMoneyMan · 12-23-08, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by Spoon

Although Orlando is my team and makes me the most money, I have been doing really well with the Cavs this season too. While the Cavs are a different team this year from years past, there are some disturbing statistics that really make you think twice before laying money on them today. I’m not saying I won’t wager on them because I will need to do more work on this, but what I came across so far is troubling to say the least. After taking about 15 minutes or so with the data I come up with the following… For starters, The Cavs have serious trouble with Houston regardless where the game is played – home or away. They didn’t play against each other this season, but dating back to 2003 and up until last season, the Cavs are 2-8 against Houston overall. When they host Houston on their home court the Cavs are 1-4. They have only averaged 86 points per game against Houston at home while Houston averaged 91 points. Moreover, it does not get any better when they play at Houston either. The Cavs are also 1-4 in Houston against the Rockets averaging 82 points per game while Houston averaged 93 points per game on their home court. They are coming into this game with 2 losses in a row against Houston, yet the line is -7.5? I’m not trying to discourage anyone, but a lot of people think it’s safe playing a team just because they are on fire and fail to realize those teams they give them the most trouble historically.

As always we really don't know the outcome, but we can give our predictions. Heck, last night I was off by 1 point in the Sacramento game so there you go.

GL in your choice and who knows, I might be on the Cavs too when I finish analyzing the matchup.

O town is on fire

Spoon · 12-23-08, 02:38 AM

Okay, enough of this lovefest. It;s starting to feel too mushy up in here...CK will be fine. Can we get back to basketball now?

Spoon · 12-23-08, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by BigMoneyMan

O town is on fire

Yes, I see you read my post. That's exactly what I stated.

CTS5 · 12-23-08, 02:51 AM

Why are 100% of bettors on the warriors tomorrow at miami? Did they forget that warriors have been getting pounded by almost every team? I guess they still think its the team that upset the mavericks 2 years ago.

cocknocker · 12-23-08, 03:09 AM

CTS5,

I have your play on the big board, and that means that I am gonna put some dough on it. Thanks for your insightful pick, homes. I can't let you be the only one getting some of that cash! I'm gonna smoke on it and watch the line fall to 11 or 10.5 and pound Dallas at -10 homes.

The reason why the consensus is 100% for the Warriors is because it's early. But the Warriors will cover in that game though. Miami is not deep enough of a team to do to the Warriors what the Magic did.

wangichu · 12-23-08, 03:23 AM

yeah... way too much on memphis so far... dallas looks good to me too... probably will lay off the cleveland game with the rockets info in mind and with the addition of artest, they should be able to do put up a good fight against the improved lebrons. I just can't go with the rockets as this is a much improved cavs team that is hotter than i have ever seen them. Denver had their number the last few years and couldn't cover EITHER game this year, so i don't think i will trust the rockets right now with the cavs current streak.

posting early tonight because i'm going out of town for christmas tomorrow morning, but i'm on

CHI +6.5
POR -7.5 (biggest play)
BOS -13.5
UTAH -1.5
DAL -11.5

don't think i'll have time to catch the nets tomorrow so there it is

CTS5 · 12-23-08, 03:37 AM

Lets get that money CK, I've been doing some stupid 2nd half plays that have put me in a hole. Now I'm putting away the BS and getting to work.

cocknocker · 12-23-08, 03:40 AM

BigMoney,

You spoke of the illuminati. They are wrong for controlling the flow of money the way that they do. I think the bigger thing that they are guilty of is the stripping of the average man and his capacity to have access to priviledged information. Which in turn infuses feminism into males, and destroys the fabric of the average home. It's not what you're taught, it's what you're not being taught that will effect you more. If someone would have taken me to the side a long time ago before i went to college and told me that in order to make money all you have to do is apply for a high end credit card make minimal purchases for a year or so, then apply for a card with a high allowance then use that card as a down payment on a lot fee for home in it's developmental stage, and then also hire a long legged gorgeous agent to sell it 30 days prior to completion and make a 95% profit with no money invested whatsoever, I would not have gone to college at all. I just would have cut straight to the chase.

Being a student is useless if you do not make a business of your own. You can't go to school and then work at Kaiser hospital. It's not a craft then. You can't put your special touch on anything. It's a job. You can't get a degree in business and then work for a law firm too long. You have to open your own practice simultaneously and get clientelle while you learn as an apprentice. You can't become an A.S.E certified mechanic without opening up your own shop. It is alright to work at someone's shop for a while to see how it's done, but you've got to have your own, homes. Then the lessons of stocks are easier for a person to understand when they aren't a squirrel trying to get a nut, right? The information is easier to digest once you have a revolution in your own mind.

But when the illuminati has the world by the throat and 70% of the people are not rich and must worry more than create what is a man to do? That eye on top of the pyramid on the dollar bill is there for a reason. There must be a mainstream an there must be mediocrity in order for everyone to be controlled. There will be no rebellion when brainwashing has been instilled from birth. The fact that we barter information in this thread alone is a revolutionary act. Now just think if world wide everyone decided one day to barter instead of use currency? Everything would come to a standstill. Much bigger than the standstill a few years ago when Latino workers did the one day boycott, which effected the economy so bad that the all the markets plummeted in response to unsurity whether the boycott would go on further than that.

Stock options are one thing. Bank margins are one thing. But people are miliions and millions of things. More precious than a dollar bill. I burna dollar, and no one is effected. A child dies in a house fire and a generation is wiped out.

Keeping your money liquid is by far one of the most valuable lessons that can be taught, yet is one of the hardest ones for a person to grasp if they are not hungry for that information. You and i tossed the ball around about your statements you made. I am thirsty for that knowledge. Being a margin player myself, i NEVER like for my stocks to sit still more than 3 months. I like to do short term quick investments, as you already know. I want mine now homes. Just like those who want our minds right now. Get it now. That's revolutionary, baby.

I know everyone is tired of this rant by me and Biggie. But we don't just talk about sports all the time. Sometimes it's necessary to break things up a bit. Readers of my old threads know that every now and then we rap about different subjects too. Whatever...we'd better get back to sports before Spoon has a seizure, lol!

cocknocker · 12-23-08, 03:42 AM

CTS5, play those 2nd halves for peanuts, and you will feel better in the morning. never let it mess up your money that you put on the game from the outset, cuzzz. Just put what we affectionately call "lids" or $25.00 bets on 2nd halves if you put up say $200.00 on the game.

cocknocker · 12-23-08, 03:45 AM

So CTS5

DON'T DO IT FOR AS MUCH AS YOU HAVE BEEN DOING IT FOR!