Leans for Tuesday 12/23/08

[innovator]

CK that's pretty revolutionary but gangsta

[2qwik]

CK and everyone,
I just want to say how I just fkin love all the write ups and how you talk about other topics to throw in the mix. I am saving this advice in a document so when I get out of debt I can make some investments myself. I eat all this info up and appreciate the knowledge you all bring forth.

[diogee]

Good thread cocknocker...going to have to start checking it out and participating once work becomes less hectic.

Agree with your Utah and Okc plays...would take the Nets at +6.5 as well.

[indeed]

I feel some good karma coming tonight for the Wizards .. DeShawn Stevenson did the right thing and asked Coach Tapscott to bench him because he's been playing so poorly .. when you got a dude doing the right thing for the team like that, good things come your way for real. Also, Dirk publicly stated he wants less money in 2010 so the Mavericks can get a good player in free agency? More good karma.

Mavericks -11.5
Wizards +6.5
Thunder +11.5

Waiting on Blazers' line .. Indy's going to probably still have those three out with the flu

[indeed]

I know we don't like the Lakers much, but I'll take them as dogs .. Peja Stojakovic may miss the game

[Freddy]

Hi guys Iam new here so I wish you all the best. Especially CK for his write ups so far.

I think that line for NO-LA came out with Peja like starter, if he miss the match the line might be more equal, thats my opinion

What about Houston +8.5? Doesnt sound as a game that might go more close the line show? Or this CAVS form scares us?

Whats the medical news and pinnacle put offline in MIA-GSW?

And last note is that I cant see Nets so much underdog like you want to see. Althought I dont know if there are big misses in this game, I would take IND if the line is about to 0-2 pts

[mundane]

wiz +6.5 ~ buy half - get it to a whole number spread so u always give urself a chance for a push/moneyback.

here's my take on this one..
if u check the next 10 games (2 wk span) for the wiz, this bobcats game is one of the games that they have a legit chance of getting the W (other one is okc game @home). last time i check, they still have c butler and jamison on their team . it could prove tough against these budding bobcats team esp on the road (where they are 1-9) but i have a feeling that they'll try their darndest on this one. another good reason on taking them is... struggling wiz player stevenson going to his coach and giving up his starting position - this goes to show that wiz player/s are willing to try anything to make things work. so catching 6+ pts against another lowly team i think is very generous of the books.

go wiz!

[coolmil]

Thanks

CK, thanks for your posts. Merry Christmas.

[joanapoker]

Hello everyone!

Just a brief recap from last night: (all posted here yesterday)
HOU-3.5 WIN ----- thx CK
TOR +3.5 WIN ----- thx CK
BEARS -3 1st half LOSS
POR/DEN UNDER 199 WIN
MEM +12 WIN

Regarding yesterday, I don't know why didn't much more of you guys played the MEM+12....even to me, a rookie, seemed an easy pick....

TODAY

so far just locked 3 plays (the ck plays I've liked, I only do my own picks later...after reading this amazing thread and doing a little bit of analysis (from what I'm learning here)!!
UTA -1.5
BOISE +3.5
WAS +6.5

good luck all!

By the way, is there a free site that we can view here the money is being played (consensus)??

[SamsNCharge99]

CK I'm all over the home favs tonight.
Cavs -7 Locked them up when I woke up, now up to 8. Biggest Play of Night.
Miami -9 (Very Samll)
Atlanta -12 (Normal)
Boston -13 (normal)

NCAAFootball
TCU (Small)

NBAA BBALL
SIENA -9.5 (Home Town Team)
not really liking much, I'm better at NBA so, I'll stick with that

[peterpan19]

ck
still on with the Nets, its only 3.5 ??

thx

[joanapoker]

UTA +1.....

damn I've locked in at -1.5!!

What is going on?

[DaChozen1]

Utah / Milwaukee

Maybe its because Utah is on the 5th game of a 5 game road trip? They will be very tired thats my only guess

[BevoStevo]

CK and the mafia,

I have been following this thread since the beginning, but have never posted anything. Keep up the good work. I am amazed with the civility of CK's daily forum considering 99.9% of online forums always have a couple a-holes and this forum does not.

I just wanted to give the mafia the heads up on a bowl game that I have my eye on. I am going heavy on Rice -3 next tuesday in the Texas bowl against Western Michigan. First off, it is a home game for Rice. Secondly, Western Michigan has a poor/marginal pass defense. I don't see WM being able to handle Clement and Dillard. Also, Rice's only losses were against quality opponents (Texas, Vandy, and Tulsa). That said, WM did not lose to any high school teams (Nebraska, Central Michigan, and Ball State). In short, I see Rice handling business against WM much like Ball State did earlier this year (45-22).

Please note, I only bet on games for fun and in no way claim to be an expert handicapper. That said, if I am totally missing something on this game, I am all ears.

Merry Christmas all around.

[joanapoker]

I'm looking the UNDER (again) at the DEN/POR.....yesterday nice 4th QRT making me cashing....but today i think I won't need to get a lucky 4th QRT to cash the UNDER!

What u all think?

[joanapoker]

Just locked DEN/POR UNDER 198.5, but I still want some feedback pls.

thx!

[Broncos9798]

Hey CK,

Will you send me some unbias opinions of the Denver teams.

I was all about taking Portland tonight at there home after we beat them at home(like was earlier posted). However 8 points seems like to many. I am considering just not betting this game.

Denver Broncos are +8 vs the Chargers. I feel that the Broncos are defiantly in trouble but again I was surprised to see such a large line. I honestly thought the line would be -3.5 or 4 Chargers.

I starting to lean towards 2 no plays heres but wanted your opinion.

Thanks

Broncos

[cocknocker]

Milwaukee doesn't have the depth or talent to win this game outright. They think they're world beaters after dispatching with the Clips the way that they did. But Utah is VERY well coached, and has no stars outside of Wlliams in the lineup, which means that there will be no problems with hustle. I'll take my chances with the Jazz on this one regardless of the line movement. If line movement was everything Denver wouldn't have gotten the cover yesterday based upon reverse line movement. I think the line maker is giving the Bucks too much respect for the blowout win. According to my math, I even had the Bucks winning by 4. However, Utah is deeper than the Bucks at all positions on the floor, and since the young guns have been getting time, the entire team is being developed instead of the synergy of the starting 5 and 2 bench players, which is what the Bucks are doing. Coach Skiles doesn't put much stock into the bench players on the Bucks. That will come back to bite them in this game. Milwaukee is in the same time zone as Utah, so there's no help for the Bucks there, and the Jazz have beaten the Bucks straight up the last three times they have visited, let alone cover any spread. The only way that Milwaukee covered against them was to get 8 points as a home dog. Whatever. I look for the Jazz to continue their winning ways against the Bucks. When a team is better than the other one, they're just better than them. It just is what it is...The Jazz have no business getting points in this game with no extra "hidden" injuries.

[demize21]

Originally Posted by Smacksmiter
Ck earlier the best pay in stocks is a saddle option

PS I am not a broker so I make nothing of you.

been out off the buisnesss for a few years but pretty sure you mean straddle option?

[Killer Chihuahua]

Golden State/Miami under 216.......Golden State gives up a ton of points BUT, the heat are a half court team averaging only 96ppg at home. Miami has gone under the total in 4 of 5 last games and is 24-10 under in home games against good offensive teams-99 or more ppg over last 3 seasons. the avg score in these games was 194ppg. The warriors have gone under in 6 of the last 9 games as linemakers continue to raise the total on these guys. The oddsmakers have this total set too high

[chipper8888]

wow....big line move on the nets now @ 2.5
might wedge it in a 4.5 teaser with portland
any thoughts ?

[cocknocker]

Broncos9798,

Okay, if you want brutal honesty, I can supply you with that. The Chargers will demolish the Broncos. They had their chance, and Buffalo took it away. The Chargers are blasting away to the finish line, getting hot at the right time, and Denver is not. This is a tale of two tams going in opposite directions. I have the Chargers winning by two touchdowns, homes.

Denver Nuggets tonight? No. The Nuggets already got their "exscuse me" win last night with Carmelo out, but the truth is that they are out of gas, playing a young upstart team. One look at their schedule shows that the Nuggets have played a LOT of games in a short period of time. That doesn't bode well when facing a young hungry team like the Blazers. I think that Denver has a slight chance, but that is slight, and the Blazers would have to shoot horribly on order for them to get the cover. Nuggets get blown off by 10 tonight.

BevoStevo,

I don't know about Rice in this game. I kind of like Western Michigan in this game to win it on a late field goal, although Rice is a very pesky team. I would have to do a little more research on this game. I would like to know if the teams had a common opponent. What sticks out to me about this game is the reverse movement. With 70% of the bettors on Rice's side the line went down to 2.5 from 3. So essentially the line went from Rice having to win by a touchdown to them having to win by a fied goal with the majority of he money on them. Not good. My advice to you is to take Western Michigan and buy a point, making your line Western Michigan+3.5

[cocknocker]

chipper8888,

It matters not. It's still the same as getting the Nets at +3.5. It would still take a 4 point win by Indiana to get the cover. Better get it now, the line will not go back to 3.5 for you, homes. I have them at +4.5. I got on it early.

[vassman86]

Memphis/Dallas Under 197

I'm leaving the house soon so I'll keep it brief.
7 of 8 games have gone under over the past three season
4 of 4 have gone under in games played at Dallas
Mavs have gone under the total in 4 of their past 5 games
Grizzlies have gone under the total in 4 of their past 5 games, as well.
Griz are on the tail end of a back-to-back.

In the past five games, the average total has been set at 201.4, with actual game scores averaging a total of 184.

Mavs will dictate the pace of this game. This season, against teams with a losing record, the Mavs hit the under 8 of 11 times.

I'm looking for reasons not to take the under here. Thoughts would be appreciated.

[SlicWilly3]

Hey Fella's/CK....My book has NJ +2 1/2?? And Portland -8. Do you still see value in these.
Also I like Kansas +2 1/2 at Arizona and Texas pk on the Road at Wisconsin.... Do you guys have any feeling on these? Although they are on the road I just think they are much better teams.

[SlicWilly3]

chipper8888,

It matters not. It's still the same as getting the Nets at +3.5. It would still take a 4 point win by Indiana to get the cover. Better get it now, the line will not go back to 3.5 for you, homes. I have them at +4.5. I got on it early.

Ahhhh.....Thanks....I'll take them +2 1/2

[chipper8888]

fair point......i just bot half a point to move it up to 3

[cocknocker]

Okay Official Plays Update

New Jersey+4.5
Oklahoma City+12.5
Utah-1.5
Washington+6.5
Boise+3.5

Still waiting for Dallas and Portland to drop before I play them. All plays $300.00 apiece and hedged with the money I would have given up for vigorish on a seperate book on the other side's moneyline. 7 plays is a whole lot of plays, much more than i usuallydo. I am switching places with my man BigMoney today. I am looking forward to playing Dallas-10 some kind of way. WIth all of the money on the Nuggets in this game, I hope that the line drops to 7.5 or 7 for me.

[cocknocker]

vassman86,

I can't tell you to not take the under, because from your description it sounds like a good play!

[joanapoker]

Golden State/Miami under 216.......Golden State gives up a ton of points BUT, the heat are a half court team averaging only 96ppg at home. Miami has gone under the total in 4 of 5 last games and is 24-10 under in home games against good offensive teams-99 or more ppg over last 3 seasons. the avg score in these games was 194ppg. The warriors have gone under in 6 of the last 9 games as linemakers continue to raise the total on these guys. The oddsmakers have this total set too high

total agree! 100% with you on that one! Lock one more!! Adding this to my Final CARD!

CK you usually don't give any thoughts on TOTALs (except total by team), don't you study totals the same way you look for beat SPREADS? thx!

[SlicWilly3]

Absolutely LOVE BOISE ST tonight. I think they win outright. But I took them +3 1/2 (bought a 1/2 pt)
I see your on them too CK, so that makes me feel even better about the pick.

ALSO FYI: TCU's best linebacker Robert Henson is OUT-ruled academically ineligible and will sit out the Poinsettia Bowl.
Henson is an all-Mountain West first team selection this year, and is currently second on the team with 73 tackles. He's also intercepted 2 passes.

[nonsense48]

Although Orlando is my team and makes me the most money, I have been doing really well with the Cavs this season too. While the Cavs are a different team this year from years past, there are some disturbing statistics that really make you think twice before laying money on them today. I’m not saying I won’t wager on them because I will need to do more work on this, but what I came across so far is troubling to say the least. After taking about 15 minutes or so with the data I come up with the following… For starters, The Cavs have serious trouble with Houston regardless where the game is played – home or away. They didn’t play against each other this season, but dating back to 2003 and up until last season, the Cavs are 2-8 against Houston overall. When they host Houston on their home court the Cavs are 1-4. They have only averaged 86 points per game against Houston at home while Houston averaged 91 points. Moreover, it does not get any better when they play at Houston either. The Cavs are also 1-4 in Houston against the Rockets averaging 82 points per game while Houston averaged 93 points per game on their home court. They are coming into this game with 2 losses in a row against Houston, yet the line is -7.5? I’m not trying to discourage anyone, but a lot of people think it’s safe playing a team just because they are on fire and fail to realize those teams they give them the most trouble historically.

As always we really don't know the outcome, but we can give our predictions. Heck, last night I was off by 1 point in the Sacramento game so there you go.

GL in your choice and who knows, I might be on the Cavs too when I finish analyzing the matchup.

i think far too much is put on a teams' past years preformances. as far as houston owning the cavs in years past. this is quite a different year. be very careful putting too much faith in years past. jmo. gl all

[pubster77]

Okay Official Plays Update

All plays $300.00 apiece and hedged with the money I would have given up for vigorish on a seperate book on the other side's moneyline.

What do you mean by this?

Do you mean that you are betting ATL, CHA, IND, MIL, on the moneyline for about $12 each? (ie. 4% of $300 ~ vigorish).

[jeffbuff73]

Boise

ck......how did u get boise st at +3.5? did u buy ponts on this game? I see the line at 3 everywhere, just wondering bro???

[ManBearPig]

CK went over that topic I think last week sometime...I member reading it but not really understanding it too much though. I don't think I bet enough though for it to matter though.