With 66% of bettors on the side of Phoenix, naturally the line went down to 4 for Portland. At this rate, I will gladly wait it out. The Magic number for me that i am looking for is 2.5 or 2 (wishful thinking) for Portland. So hopefully the public will continue to drive this line down to 3 or 3.5. if they do, then that's when i will pull the trigger with either a one point buy or a hook buy depending upon if it lands at 3.5 or 3. Ideally though i would love to be able to play the Blazers at home -2. but 2.5 is the same, as it would take a 4 point win for me to get my cover anyway. I am gonna step out at noon or so to do some lightweight X-Mas shopping for my kids. When i get back i would like to see the line fall a little more. I may have to take the Blazers-3, which is fine with me too, but not preferred. I like insurance...
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CK,
So, UNC is -29 with no ML. Does that scream UNC cover to you?Comment -
still on indy with reverse line movement?Comment -
@CK:
When I said Orlando was a different team this year I was referring to the chemistry within the team and how they are a well oiled machine – not talking about new or old players on the court. You know this already so I don’t need to support this one with evidence. Nevertheless, you have a good argument that supports your decision for taking the Spurs and I won’t take that away from you, but what the game comes down to is matchups and like I said previously, they match up well. If Orlando continues to hit their 3’s that they have been so successful with and open up the inside for Howard (who is said to be playing tonight) this could get ugly for the Spurs.
Now, in light of this line movement, I’m starting to get that feeling. You know, “that feeling” that forces me to react in such a way that I either back off or take the other side. This line movement has nothing to do with the percentage of people playing Orlando tonight because it’s close to 55/45. I believe something else is going on here, but we shall see. This week alone I have saved myself a lot of money backing off Miami and the Clippers due to this last minute pull out because of line movements. Well, since rule #1 states, “ Bet with Orlando or don’t bet them at all,” I have a decision to make. What I’m going to do is stay with Orlando regardless of this line movement, but will wait to see how far the line will drop by game time so I can make any corrections to my play. I’m not abandoning Orlando like I did Miami and the Clippers though. The overall objective here is for you, me, and everyone else to beat the book at all angles and be victorious. Therefore, GL and I hope we all cash this ticket.Comment -
Something looks awfully fishy with this game. The Colts have not beat a team on the road by more than 6 points this year and after America pounded the colts spread what does it do, drops??? Doesn’t look right. I actually tried my first Football/Babsketball Combo tonight…Originally posted by Devon
Suns +12
Colts +4
Under 55Comment -
BmoreBucco,
I don't mess with college basketball, but we have a resident college basketball guy and if I ask him, I'm sure that he can satisfy your request.
Devon,
Yes i am still on the Colts-6. It's too late now, I already took them. But the injury to Marvin harrison isn't significant in my opinion as his production has faltered of late. Dallas Clark will play and so will Sanders and Freeney, so they will be okay at the prime positions on the field. they are going all out on this game because a win puts them into the playoffs. No amount of line movement is going to take the Colts below needing to win by a touchdown, so whether you take this game at 6 all the way down to 4, the Colts still need to win by a touchdown no matter how you look at it.
pronk,
Could you please bestow upon us a sharp college basketball play today? With such a short NBA board, I think that I have room for a play today. I am personally liking Drexel +4.5 (with a hook added). I know that Niagra is a powerful team, but it is a little bit of a stretch for Niagra to be favored in their building, especially when this is Niagra's third straight road game and they have covered the number in the first two. Drexel has played a MUCH tougher schedule and covered against george Mason and Penn, while dropping an ats loss to Georgetown, which is understandable. Niagra has played well nobody outside of Villanova...
Despite 86% of the consensus money being on Niagra, the line has not changed, and matter of fact, Skybook has the line at 3.5 now...Comment -
With a moneyline of Portland -175/+155 on my book, that is a corresponding line for a 3.5 spread, so just in case the San Francisco traffic is on full tilt, i am going to make my play for Portland at -3.5, as 3 and 3.5 are basically the same. Portland would need to win by 4 in order for me to cash my ticket, and the consensus dictates a 60-40% split with bettors favoring Phoenix. I don't think that the majority will continue to push Phoenix back to a level where they are at 80% with bettors, which is what would be needed to get the line down to 3 in this game, so there it is, just as i indicated in my opening statements-
Portland-3.5Comment -
i thought there was a PC play tonite?Comment -
Final plays for the day:
Blazers-3.5
Spurs+4.5
Drexel+4.5 (light)
Colts-6
$500 on each except Drexel ($120.00 to win $100.00)
Outside of Wang and Triple Threat my book runner at University at Illinois I don't trust those college kids, lol!
Money management, boys and girls. No need to exceed even when you've got it to do so. It's a marathon. Not a sprint. We've got some idiots with only $3000.00 wagering $500.00 a game. That's not good...Comment -
CK, here is some information about Superman's injury. If he doesn't play, you still have to like the Spurs even more.
Dwight Howard couldn't say for sure whether he'll be able to play against the Spurs Thursday night.
Howard said his left knee "isn't bothering me now," but didn't say definitively that he would be in the lineup, only saying "Hopefully. It depends how I feel." It sounds like he has a good chance of playing, but the Magic could decide to play it safe if Howard isn't feeling right during warmups. Dec. 18 - 12:14 pm et
Source: Orlando SentinelComment -
Which one is your PC Play ck?
And if you don't mind explaining it again....What exactly is a pc play
"Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
-Donald J. Trump
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CK, piss on the haters mayun. Get those ragedy tricks out of your head...PRONTO. Dont even let the phrase, fade my picks come from your keyboard. It may psychologically F you up or something. If that ever happens, I dont wanna have to scour the country to find all of em and open up a can.
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tjtjtj12,
My bad, there was some grumbling amongst the other members, so bets were shortened to normal size and relief was apparent after the phones were hung up. Truth is it didn't materialize due to certain circumstances of some light factors. Not to worry, though, I've got your back. The next PC Play is Saturday with the Baltimore Ravens+ anything, homes. You just can't beat those PC's. Man they are somethin' else. I have not seen higher ratios of winning percentage from any so called professional in the time that we have all hooked up. When they make the call, it's usually money. That's why I hit those plays so heavy. The coordinated efforts of myself and those guys only yeild about 3 plays total a month on average. But there is one game in particular that we are talking about, and you may want to take the line as SOON as it comes out, with no hesitation no matter how ridiculous the line looks.
Just so you'll know ahead of time, we are tossing around the subject of the Celtics/Bulls tilt on Friday. The Bulls have played back to back overtime games, allowing a team that they had mastery over to cover and covering against the Clips with time zone crossing travel involved and one day of rest (today). Add an early start time in Beantown against a Green team that has failed to cover the number in their last two games and the pot is bubbling over with possibilities and Christmas money. The Celtics OWN the Bulls and there is nothing that anyone can do about it. 6-0 ats in the last 6 games. This is also the opening of a home stand for the home team too. My, my, my. This is everything we look for on our plays situation wise.
The spreads for Boston at home against the Bulls average 9. The average victory margin is 21.5 points. According to my rescoring model for the game on Friday, I have the Celtics at a whopping 18 points victory margin only because they are on one days' rest. I have a projected opening line of Boston -13.5. This one will be Blowout City Bay-Beeee!Comment -
Could you define "haters?" Please don't tell me your definition is someone who has a different opinion on the outcome of a game. We're all on the same side when it comes down to it so relax, partner.Originally posted by jaleinCK, piss on the haters mayun. Get those ragedy tricks out of your head...PRONTO. Dont even let the phrase, fade my picks come from your keyboard. It may psychologically F you up or something. If that ever happens, I dont wanna have to scour the country to find all of em and open up a can.Comment -
jaelin,
It's cool. Fade Day is only for today! I made those picks fully expecting everyone else to be on the other side, and according to what i have seen, it is true. Not necessarily that they are fading me moreso than they are playing the logical picks. However, with this being National Fade Day, I'm making these plays without regard to logic or rational thinking, with the though process being that I want to do the exact opposite of what I felt that I should do when i did my research for these games.
What happened to our Yoda?Comment -
Spoon,
It's cool bro. He's a CK Mafia type, so he is allowed to flex. Sometimes the muscle doesn't fully undertand the workings of of my mind. But they always have my back, and they are VERY protective over me. If you came from where we came from you would understand. But it's not a shot at anyone in particular, it's more a comment directed toward me to not let doubt creep into my mind (which will never happen) spawned from the naysayers. It's all good in the hood, homes. I apologize personally for the misunderstood retort from the members of my extended family in this instance and in the future if warranted. But if anybody earns their wrath, then I fully endorse them to have a go at it. I have to keep my head clear to make the best possible decisions, you know what I mean?Comment -
Only on two plays tonight
colts-6/ over 44
Colts can never stop the run so you know the jags will get theres. This has been there achilles heal for the colts during the Manning era. I still think a touchdown will seal the deal. Its 78 degrees and no wind so that gives the air attack what I want. Expect Garrard to throw a few pics its what he does best. This is not the same jags teams of the past, thats why the spreads where its at. Everyone is overlooking this as a trap but I see this otherwise. Colts need this game big time dont be fooled.
GL on fade day im off those plays and getting geared up for tomorrow.
Tomorrows picks look mighty tasty fellas
GL everyoneComment -
i picked my 3 for tonight
san/orl under
orlando moneyline
portland moneylineComment -
Waited out the Spurs and it went back to +2.5 so I jumped on it without having to buy the hook.
I'm leaning Colts, but I'm getting Colts -6/-105, Jags +6/-115, even though a huge % of the money is going on Peyton and Friends. Should I be scared or what?Comment -
NHL Plays
Bruins -240
Penguins -155
Flyers Even
Toronto/Boston Over 5.5 These two teams love to score against each other 8 out of the last 11 have gone over.
NHL Leans
Washington/St Louis over 6 St Louis has gone over 9 of their last 10 games and Washington can light the lamp and give up goals.Comment -
Im on em tonight lets go colts!!Originally posted by BmoreBuccoComment -
I like the overs in BOS/TOR and WAS/STL as wellOriginally posted by africanroller
GL
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NBA:
Spurs +4 (1 unit)
Portland -2/-3 (waiting on the line to settle before gametime) (2 units)
NCAAB:
UNC -29.5 (4 units)
Cin -4 (1 unit)
Louisville -15.5 (2 units)
W. Mich -3.5 (1 unit)
Kent St -20 (1 unit)
NHL:
Penguins -160 (3 units to win 2)
NFL:
Waiting for jags line to hopefully go up to +6.5 and buy 1pt (1 unit)Comment -
CK, i think that you will be safe with Drexel tonight. Niagara is a little better team with scary 7-1 ATS record, but Drexel is due for a win coming off 2 straight defeats to stags and patriots (at home).
However tonight i like W.Kentucky against S.Alabama. Hilltoppers suffered embarrassing setback in Evansville last weekend (32 point loss) by scoring only 40 points. Both teams faced Louisville not long ago: Hilltoppers beat cards by 14 and Jaguars lost by 27. Go figure.
Playing: W.Kentucky +4
GL.Comment -
Still waiting for the portland line to drop with 60% siding with phoenix, and 90% taking the suns moneyline, but the line looks stuck at -4.Comment -
for what it's worth CK.. I don't points will be necessary in that SA/ORL game.. My guess is we'll see Superman start the game and realize that the long term care of the knee is more important than one game. Add that to all the angles you mentioned above with bowen on Turk like stink on shit and Lewis being a lazy defender and Duncan's poor shooting performance last night (35%)..Comment -
Western Kentucky Nipple Suckers it is. I don't think that I have ever even heard of them. That's how you know it's a good wager. Wow, and they even beat the Cards? They must be something else...Comment -
forgot to add that the Spurs were dominated on the boards last night.. that will not happen tonight. Ya think Pop mentioned that stat in the locker room last night. Another thing I just noticed from checking the box score was Mason, who averages 46% from 3, shot a miserable 25% last night. In fact, the Spurs as a whole shot a lowly 34.6% when they average right around 40%.Comment -
CTS5,
I don't think that the line will go down any more than it already has because obviously the linemaker feels the Portland is gonna cover, and they already have what they want as far as the Phoenix money is concerned. If they already have a bag full of cash, no sense in stopping the flow. The 5 and 4 points looks good to Phoenix backers. Looks like a steal. Hell when I researched the game I almost reached for those points too...Better get it now and buy a hook, homes, and that goes for whichever side you play, Phoenix or Portland.Comment -
Reverse line movement on drexel.... hit em upComment -
I show the line at 4.5 from 4.Originally posted by tdotcotezComment -
I dunno if anyone saw the article about the mississippi coach getting arrested last night
covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=166635
Cards should cover regardless imoComment -
Its not a reverse line movement all the money is on niag. Id say its a bit stiff though with all that money (90%) and only .5 point shift....Comment -
wooopss... it reversed on my book from +4 to +4.5Comment -
Listen, at the moment that this bar is closed, immediately take the Celtics-12 for tomorrows games. That's all I've got to say on that subject until I do my write up. The line will go up once the sharps know what i know about that game. It's gonna look like Christmas, and not just because the teams will be wearing green and red.Comment
