However, board, I just did some quick research and the Lakers moneyline is once again incorrect for the amount of points being offered. A 12.5 spread should have a moneyline of -625/+425, not -1400/+1000. Suns moneyline is the play, not +12.5. Bet much much less and make more. No one wanted to listen to my moneyline analysis yesterday with regard to Sacramento/Lakers. The Lakers will lose two in a row, fellas. $100 will get you $1000.00. If it helps any Phoenix is 3-3 straight up the last 6 games in Los Angeles. matter of fact, i know that I am going to waste $100.00 on this game with odds like that.
-
Comment -
ck, nice write-ups
thinking lakers team total under 114 1/2
lakers 5-15 with over that team total so far
phx 19-1 allowing less than 114 1/2 this yearComment -
whats any ones opinion on a money line parlay cleveland and memphis?Comment -
innovator,
I just put down a wager for $100.00 to win $1000.00 on the Phoenix moneyline. I am saying yes to taking them on the moneyline and no on the points. They are 3-3 straight up in games in Los Angeles, and with Shaq not playing, they actually return to the type of team that the Lakers have problems with. Plus the Lakers played last night, while Phoenix shot jumpers on the Staples Center floor.
zackattack,
that is precisely what I am saying. I learned a long time ago to play basketball by the "key" numbers, or even numbers if you will.
ebbearsfb1,
Sounds nice except I can't go against Oklahoma in this game. The Grizzlies are just as bad as they are in my opinion, and when two garbage teams play one another, you might as well take the points especially if the public favors the road team. Cleveland's moneyline straight sounds better.Comment -
Well i think hes saying bet really small, but 3-3 SU in the last 6 in LA is kinda like flipping a coin, thats just my take on it. Right now im really not digging many of the games, thinkin about Golden State and Indiana though, seems after a big winning night i come back n give some of it back so im goin real conservative tonight, good luck ck and everybody elseComment -
i agree CK these teams give up 195 points when the lakers play at home and the suns play away, i like the under on this one as well, the only thing that scares me is the past 5 games they have given up a average of 114 but its still under the number so i will roll with it as well, ALso CK i'm i getting to anxious with this cavs line brnad might not play and the line is -6.5 i'm about to pound this one i can see lebron putting up a great wend night show
I knwo the cavs outscore their oppents by 8.7 pernts away
and the sixers outscore their oppents by 3.4 pernts at home
Overall the cavs outscore their oppents by 13.6 pernts
Overall the sixers get outscored by .8 pernts
last 5 the cavs have outscored opp by 22.4 pernts
and teh sixers have gotten outscored by 5.2 pernts
Now this calls for the cavs but last night all the numbers pointed to the lakers and the kings won outright do u think their is a possibility the same thing will happen? i feal it could but the cavs have been playing like champs as of late and the lakers have been playing lackadsiq of late, or you think taking teh cavs first half would be a smarter choice as they tend to jump on teams earlyComment -
wow i just checked out the nba plays of the day on covers, and they picked milwaukee, and i know it doesnt really affect the outcome of the game but these guys pick 1 winner every 3 days or so lol, its absolutely ridiculous how they can pick boston and the lakers against memphis and okc and somehow boston and lakers would lose on the same night.
Maddog, im with you, i really wanna take Cleveland as they've been really friendly to me, especially buying it down to 6, eitherway so far i did make a 1q bet for Cleveland, they usually startoff fast and play there bench for the last 9 minutes of the game which makes me super nervous as there bench really isnt that good and usually results in wally taking 3s every other possession. Eitherway i really like the 1q and its only -2, with the huge spreads theyve been gettin recently its usually -4 or something and they usually cover it with easeComment -
thank you ck you have won me a lot of moneyComment -
CK,
I'm getting Hornets -12.5, do you still like it? Also, getting Warriors at -2.5, I'm assuming you like that? Already took Spurs/Rockets under at 190.Comment -
Whetever happened to the idea that when teams play B2B games they are tired and their defense suffers the following game because defense takes more energy than offense?Comment -
IrwinFletcher,
You are correct. But the history of how teams play against each other is just as important in basketball as it is in baseball when a guy owns a certain pitcher. Production goes up or down in certain instances with other factors involved.
BmoreBucco,
get under that key number and buy the spread down to 11.5. Always stay off of key numbers in all sports wagering if that option is available to you.
HIGHestroller42,
Thank you for the compliment. I myself have had a lot of success wageing on sports, and I am more than happy to share that success. But I can't take all of the accolades. I have a loyal crew, the CK Mafia that helps me with those decisions as well. Without them, I would not have a sounding board to guage the strength of our plays. I make a call and whe one of them alerts me to certain factors that I may have overlooked, then I have to defer to their judgement. The PC Boys cannot go without mention as well. They are lights out when they decide to make a move. They have one call this weekend on the Cowboys in NFL football. I suggest that you try one of their calls. They are spot on on that one.Comment -
Hey Ck, 1st time poster, I have been tailing you last couple of weeks and want to thank you for your work. I am seeing reverse line movement the wrong way in the gs game. Its now down to 1 1/2 with 62% on them. Do you still like this play?Comment -
Oh sorry maddog,
I don't know how I forgot about you. I give the nod to the Sixers+3.5 1st half against Cleveland, as well as for the game if the line goes to Cleveland -7. I explained my take on this game on the first page of the thread. With 90% of bettors on the Cavs side, the line better go up or else....As stated, Cleveland is now starting to get Lakers sized lines that are a little inflated.
Mid Day report
A report in the San Francisco Chronicle has listed that the Warriors will be without Maggette and Jackson tonight, but plus Anthony Randolph. Because they make up 39 points for the Warriors, the line may fall a bit. But that's okay. It's still a good play, gents. Look at what the Rockets did yesterday without McGrady. Their production will still be there with the yungsters. Look for this line to go down a bit to 2 and stop there. i like the number of Golden State -1.5. They have some of the loudest fans in the NBA. A public request was made for them to be as loud as possible tonight. I am thinking of attending the game as a homie of mine has some excellent seats for it available.
Now that the word of Maggette not playing will hit the streets, I believe that the Milwaukee money will start pouring in and by gametime the money will be equal (50/50). That's when the line wil go back up to 2.5 or 3. This move was made to encourage money on both sides, and it will work too, especially with the Warriors record factored in. But crossing time zones on the road in a back to back situation is always bad news. Not only does a team lose an hour, but there is travel involved too. The Warriors are energized by the site of Montae Ellis being present at the facility exercising and walking without a limp. He is close to getting back on the court.Comment -
CK, how do you determine how much the ML should be and shouldn't be for certain spreads? You were right about something being fishy on the ML for last night. Lakers were completely dominated by the Kings. Their win wasn't even in question because the Lakers just looked awful the entire time.Comment -
in this game before minute mixing, I have to think that NO's trade should energize that squad... antonio daniels should help fill the whole left by janero pargo a lot better than mike james has... i don't even know if minute mixing will matter that much once daniels gets to town, but in the mean time, the hornets should play energized knowing that help is on the way and that management cares.Comment -
CK, is there some kind of ratio or number set for correct MLs, ie for every +3 the ML should be +150 or something? or maybe just a chart that shows them and their proper standard deviation so i could know that something was fishy if the ML was more than one deviation from the proper number? I'm not even seeing an ML on the suns lakers right now, but sportsbook likes to be sheisty like that on spreads over 11 a lot of the time.Comment -
CK,
Can I get your definition of using the key number in betting for dummies? Thanks in advance.Comment -
The Kid,
I have been waiting for someone here at SBR to ask me that question. It's not a complicated thing, but once you have learned it, wagering will become easier for you, especially when you start comparing the following chart to the amount of points being offered for a particular game. If you combine this information with what i call (perfect or near perfect trends) 100% trends, then your winning percentage should go up. Remember to always try to stay off of the "key" or even numbers if you can.
This following is the official chart for NBA Pointspreads and the corresponding moneyline.
I suggest that all readers of this forum copy this chart to become more educated on NBA wagering. Some of the CK Mafia has a grasp on it, notably BigMoney and Wangichu, but here it goes for all to smoke on:
-2 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325
-10.5 -475/+350
-11 -500/+375
-11.5 -550/+400
-12 -625/+450
-12.5 -650/+475
If a spread and corresponding moneyline opens above these numbers or the outcome is expected to go higher than these numbers, then you can look for the spread to continue to rise over a given day, as there is wiggle room for the linemaker to do so since staving (discouraging average and square bettors to take the high ass moneyline) is in full effect.
Now this guideline is not strictly followed by all of the books as they will try to persuade bettors to be forced to take the points by raising the moneyline to an incredible monetary number in order to stop bigtimers from making eay paydays. This practice is called "staving". Only an educated bettor would know that if a game is being offered for more than the official moneyline guideline that you would need to do your homewaork and find out if a team has a "perfect" or near perfect trend against the team that is the dog. If the trend is not any where near perfect (75% or better winning percentage and ats percentage) then you have a sound play for the dog. If the trend is near perfect, and the spread (regardless of the consensus) line keeps increasing then the favorite is the call. If there is no moneyline offered and the spread for the favorite looks ridiculous, then the favorite will cover (always look for this).
Nothing in wagering is 100% (except the fact that you will make money consistently taking 1st inning runs to score in baseball from May to the World Series), so of course you won't win them all, but at least you will have an idea of what the true and pure guideline is for points and corresponding moneylines.Comment -
cocknocker, your threads are great! keep up the good work.......once i get back in the game i'll be eyeing up your picks!Comment -
Warriors are now Pick'em, should this scare me off?Comment -
BmoreBucco,
I learned a while back from phone conversations with Chet Coppack that staying off of the key numbers will increase your chances at winning consistently. The key numbers are all of the even numbers in basketball, and 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 7, 7.5 10, 10.5, 13, 13.5 and 14, 14.5 in football. If you have ever noticed, the linemakers try to keep the lines on these numbers. The key is to bet below or on top of these numbers. If a favorite line is 7, then it actually means that the favorite team must win by 10 or more, because a 7 point win would be a push. And so on. So by adding a hook and making the line if you have the dog 7.5 or 6.5 if you have the favorite will increase your chances of winning if the line is spot on. The same goes for a 3 point spread. If a favorite wins by 3 then you get a push if the line was 3. If you buy a hook and make your line 2.5 if you have the favorite, or 3.5 if you have the dog, then a field goal difference would get you a win either way as 3 is now the middle number and so on.
In basketball, scoring is done with 3's, 2's and 1's and an occasional 4 point play. The majority of scoring is done by 2 point field goals and 1 point free throws.
The majority of scoring is done by 2 point field goals. So by buying a hook onto a 2 point spread, you enhance your chance as a dog at winning by making the favorite have to beat you by 4 or winning as a favorite by only having to win by 2 if your spread is now 1.5.
wangichu,
the trade means that Chris Paul will see more time on the floor which is really a great thing for our wager tonight, which meas that the production will go up, obviously.Comment -
BmoreBucco,
The injuries for the Warriors is driving the line down. This same thing happened last night with the Rockets line, and guess what happened to Atlanta last night when although the consensus was on Houston and the line kept on going down. It scared those who had Houston and made late breaking action come in on the Hawks. This is being done to get money on both sides of the fence, that's all. Don't be surprised if the line goes back up to where it started by gametime. This type of thing happens all of the time. The linemakers are very aware that bettors are always watching the line. All that this does is makes it easier for the "injured" Warriors to surprise bettors.Comment -
Interesting stuff, CK. Thanks for giving me the information.
I see that the Lakers 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Suns and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Suns. According to Sports Insights, the line has stayed steady at 12.5 so far. I'm assuming from this information that we have a "sound play" for the dog, or Phoenix tonight (as you stated above).Comment -
jjusttiff,
I don't like the over, although the Warriors give up points by the bushel, the Bucks are not a high scoring team. Expect a tight close game until the end, with the Bucks winning the 1st half and the Warriors coming back to win after falling behind by 8-10 points somewhere in the 3rd quarter. it's just the way the Warriors play. It's tough to watch, but they are nothing if not reslient. Besides, they lost a ton of games in a row. Of course the linemaker has to do some tricky things during the day to spawn Bucks money. The numbers on the consensus will start to even up, trust me. And when you see that happen, you'll know that there is a majority of the public that was fooled by smoke and mirrors.
if you think that that's something, wait until you see what happens with the line tomorrow in the Dallas/Charlotte game.
Say Charlotte gets blown out tonight, and bettors knowing that the Mavs just had a tough home loss. The linemaker knows that the public wants some of that money back, and they will be slamming the Mavs tomorrow. Despite the fact that they are coming off a double overtime game, the public will look at the short board tomorrow and think that that will be the easiest call on the board. Wait until you see the size of the spread for that one, and how the consensus will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 75-80% with bettors on Dallas. Foolish mortals....Comment -
The Kid,
That's called knowing the truth. Now you're good. Figures don't lie. Liars figure. Think of the linemaker as a liar, and you're halfway home already. He will try any method both legal and illegal (referees) to trip you up. He is not your friend.Comment -
CK still confident about the suns ML? i'm thinking of putting some down on it.Comment -
innovator,
I have already done itComment -
Hey ck..Buster again.....any plays you would consider parlaying?....made a good profit last night parlaying your picks.....so far i got your main 3 down on a parlay...i don't see a loss here....but i'm thinkin bout playing another card for fun
New orleans-11
San Antonio-6
Minnesota+12.5
Phoenix+12.5 What you think?Comment -
Hey CK,
I like the UNDER 189 for the Spurs game and the warriors at home at ORacle arena with their fans. The bobcats are a very random team with a good coach, and I can't quite pull the trigger on the hornets at home with such a high spread.
I did some research on the toronto game, and despite indiana having some good close games with some strong teams, I see the raptors coming out after playing such hard competition and killing the pacers at home. Pacers have no defense, and this should be great for the raptors. However, I looked at the betting trends and saw that bettors are relatively taking the raptors at about 55%, and a 50/50 monelyline. With those statistics, the line has gone down from -4.5 to -3. What do you think about taking toronto at -3?Comment -
Tailed on Under 189 in San Antonio.
Played also Over 104.5 First Half in Toronto.Comment
