Leans for Wednesday 12/10/08

W0lfy · 12-10-08, 12:45 AM

First off, props on a nice Tuesday night. What you think about Raptors -3 1/2? Don't usually like riding on teams that are struggling, but feeling this for some reason. The whole O'neal, T.J Ford trade might play some impact on this game.

Devon · 12-10-08, 12:50 AM

I think I might fade from that game, personally. Both teams are very inconsistent and when it's their night they are there for a show.

Oh CK, do you think it's wise to buy half a point (-12) in the NO game or do you reckon the Hornets should cover easy?

cnleaf · 12-10-08, 12:53 AM

CK. I have TOR on my play book for today. TOR is going to end this home loss. what do u think?

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 01:31 AM

Toronto sounds like a good play, as the pacers had an overtime game against the Celtics their last game, but the raptors are missing TJ Ford more thnathey thought. Although he is a mediocre guard at best, he was still the best point guard on their roster last year. Calderon reminds me of the girl you were cheating on your ex girlfriend with that was fun and sassy when you had options, but less than satisfactory when she becomes your only option after your woman flew the coop. he is simply not getting the job done. And I have a hard time wasting money on Toronto until they get an identity. My opinion is to pass on that game, and look for another one. If anything, if Toronto is to get out of the doldrums, the offense has to kick in. Indiana gives up 103.1 points on the road and Toronto gives up 103.2 at home. So translated, that means to take a stab at the over would be a more interesting choice with the over under for this game set at 207. These teams have gone over the total the last two times that they have faced off in Canada with average total lines of 202, and actual game scores that average 222 points.

With no low post defender of note, the Raptors should be able to call their own shot down in the paint; just the tonic for playing in a back to back situation. Although strangely enough, the raptors are 3-0 ats in back end of back to back situations this year, and 1-0 over in their last such occasion. the two previous unders in that situation were understandable as they faced the Celtics and the Bucks. Two notoriously low score teams. Indiana is definitely not known for their defense.

Devon,

Always buy a half point off of a large spread like that. i myself am buying a whole point to make my spread Hornets -11.5 to get under the key number involved with this game. 12.5 means that the Hornets would have to win by 14. 11.5 means a 12 point victory would cash the ticket.

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 01:35 AM

pronk,

when you wake up let me know what you think of Creighton-6.5

cnleaf · 12-10-08, 01:54 AM

NOR, I am looking for the revenge from them against CHAR.
Im on it with you, CK.

wangichu · 12-10-08, 02:10 AM

hell ya... the only way yesterday could have been any better is if the t-wolves had held on for the W or if I had played the magic or kings ML like i tossed about. (although as a laker fan, i was pretty upset that we lost SU and not just ATS).

I'm still looking here, but I may just follow your lead CK, so far that board is looking a little cold

my only thoughts are that i want to load up on the lake show tomorrow, because they always play well and usually cover after losses, and in addition to owning the suns of late, they show also be catching a smaller spread than their usual double digits, because of phoenix coming off a blowout, the lakers coming off a dd loss, and phoenix normally not being considered THAT terrible of a team. I know revenge is on the suns minds, but they are just not getting things done.

also, i can't imagine the warriors being favored by THAT much considering their inferior record to the bucks as well as to the suns, who just covered a 7 pt spread. Last year that would probably be the number, but that's what's nice about betting the warriors... they're catching bigger spreads and laying less.

tossing some other ideas around, but probably won't follow through on many if any.... need to see the lines tomorrow and the money before i place my bets... i have tossed around indy with toronto coming home off a roadie, cavs 1st half off that win last night against the sixers who let teams jump them at home, and denver, with minny playing over their head last night in a manner. I may drop all of those and just stick to CK's and the lakers though

CTS5 · 12-10-08, 02:25 AM

I know the lakers screwed everyone including me yesterday, but what do you think the projected line will be, and if it would be wise picking them for tomoroww because they musttttt be just pisttt off after getting blown out at sacramento.

CTS5 · 12-10-08, 02:27 AM

Also, good call on the under in that spurs game.

NBA Hero · 12-10-08, 03:06 AM

would the denver have an easier time with the timberwolves compared to the bobcats?

new coach and billups is gelling well with teammates. peja is inconsistent and the bench of hornets is having probs offensively.

their spread is about the same.

hatakeyama147 · 12-10-08, 03:52 AM

Hi, CK.
I'm want to talk about is "Spurs/Hawks" this game.
when you think they are will play scores is under 189. now i have a quesion at this game. it is about who will win them. i like to Spurs get win, and hope them win than Hawks's score is 11-15 points. i don't know do you think same with me?

The Warriors are will win the game at home, and i hope they can win 6-10 points at this game. so i am agree with your advice!

now i have some advice to about Denvers at home this game, i am thinking they will win 16-20 points than Minnesota. and do you think?

Cavs and the Sixers. i like Cavs's players because they usully can won opponent up 16 point, but this game i think they will not win as a let, i am estimate they win 11-15 points with Sixers.

last one, the Grizzlies. now they are away at the Thunder home, maybe this game will PK, but i think they will lose to the Grizzlies, and the Grizzlies will win the Thunder 6-10 points.

final i finishing my views
Warriors-6.5 and them points are 6-10
Cavs will win 11-15 points
Denvers 16-20 points
Grizzlies 6-10 points
Spurs 11-15 points

see you , CK.

Marts727 · 12-10-08, 04:39 AM

HI CK,

I have been reading your threads for some time now and you always make good plays, keep it coming

Love your plays this past weeks

chipper8888 · 12-10-08, 08:03 AM

Got to diagree with you there CK.....Caulderon is a far better point guard than TJ, Ford was a selfish ****r who barely distributed the ball whilst in Toronto, some of his shot choices were astonishing.

The problem here is O'neal, and the pacers had the same problem with him - hes in the team out of the team and that causes problems with the teams chemistry.

But their biggest problem is their inability to rebound.

What they really miss from the Ford trade is a good back up for caulderon, he is having to play a lot of minutes these days due to the only option being Solomon or Ukic - neither of which are NBA grade

This is a must win for the boys tonight, i will be at the game and will be taking the raps

killersweet · 12-10-08, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Calderon reminds me of the girl you were cheating on your ex girlfriend with that was fun and sassy when you had options, but less than satisfactory when she becomes your only option after your woman flew the coop. he is simply not getting the job done.
.

That is a hilarious analogy CK and I agree with you. We do miss TJ here in Toronto and TJ actually helped Jose relax. Now without a proper backup PG, all the pressure goes on Jose and he can’t shake off his funk. Also teams are ready for him this year and they know who he is. TJ might be a malcontent in the locker room, but he certainliy helped the raptors team last year.
So I have no idea what they are going to do tonight, but if they get a home loss against TJ, it will stink really bad!

killersweet · 12-10-08, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by chipper8888

Got to diagree with you there CK.....Caulderon is a far better point guard than TJ, Ford was a selfish ****r who barely distributed the ball whilst in Toronto, some of his shot choices were astonishing.

This is a must win for the boys tonight, i will be at the game and will be taking the raps

I don’t think Jose is a far better PG than Ford. Sure Jose is an efficient point guard and a leader, but he needs help. He is getting exploited by the fast point guards and u can blame it on his hamstring injury, but still no excuse for the way he has been playing lately. He use to be a solid shooter last season and he is struggling quite a bit with his shots too. I think having TJ on the team last year helped Jose big time.

killersweet · 12-10-08, 08:29 AM

By the way, good call on Spurs and Magic last night CK. My only winners:-) Atl and Det screwed me big time!

BigMoneyMan · 12-10-08, 09:12 AM

Well I have been capping with CK for over a year now and two things I know. He loves a competitive game and 95% of the time no matter what it looks like he pulls it out in the end. Double overtime!! LOL

Wilforth · 12-10-08, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by NBA Hero

would the denver have an easier time with the timberwolves compared to the bobcats?

new coach and billups is gelling well with teammates. peja is inconsistent and the bench of hornets is having probs offensively.

their spread is about the same.

Denver apprears a better choice than NO. Denver starts out strong and maintain the tempo even when they have a huge lead. NO is suspect, IMO.

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 10:28 AM

Wilforth,

The Hornets issue is the same as the Raptors. They allowed Jannero Pargo to escape to Europe and get a huge payday instead of recognizing his contributions and offering him substantial consideration. Mike James is good, but it seems that Devin Brown controls the action more when in the game. That is a mistake, and I am sure that Coach Scott will figure it out. That issue at the point is why New Orleans has a few problems mainaining leads this year. But not to worry. They are as fresh as can be entering this game and are injury free. Apparently though they have no problems holding leads against the Bobcats at home, beating them by almost 16 on average each and every single time. They may be suspect somewhat this year, but it will all come together as they watch the other teams in their division get their stuff together. Something about competition that brings out the best in the Hornets.

Denver on the other hand is dealing with the unknown tonight. The T-Wolves are going to be better because they are being coached by an NBA legend who is very knowledgeable of the game (Kevin McHale). Being an ex player that they all knew, they will have to play harder for him, much like the Pacers were on top of their game when Larry Bird coached them. I think that Minnesota will cover the first half against the Nuggets due to the carry over effect. The spread went down on the Denver game from 11.5 to 12 on some books now down to a solid 11. Wilforth if you intend on playing this game with Denver, i suggest that you watch the line and if it ever gets down to 10, buy it down to 9.5 to get under the key number. Personally, I don't like Denver in this game. Minnesota is 4-1 ats in games in Denver, in part because the linemaker always gives Minnesota too many points (13 on average).

innovator · 12-10-08, 10:40 AM

CK, if you had to take only one play tonight what would it be?

innovator · 12-10-08, 10:41 AM

any thoughts on the cavs sixers tonight?

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 10:41 AM

Talk about a sharp decrease in a line...The Spurs were favored by 9 yesterday over the Hawks. As soon as the game against the Mavs was completed, I ran to my computer to pound the Hawks+10 by adding a point, and the game was off the board. I would only play the hawks if they were getting 10 helped by the Spurs going to double overtime on the road the night before. I am no fool. The Spurs OWN them.
The game has now reappeared at Spurs-6.5. So there's no way to get those points back now, darn it! As I indicated, I played this game for the under which I caught at 189.5, and as expected, that line fell to 188.5 on my book, and as the day goes on and bettors pound the over (69% of bettors are on the over right now) the line will continue to go down, so my advice is to get it while it's hot and buy a point to get it back up to 189.5.

That stated, I still don't feel that the Hawks are a good play if you can't get a 10 point cushion. They simply have horrid matchup problems when they play the Spurs. 6.5 is not enough. I encourage bettors planning on taking the Hawks to tease them with another game to get over the double digit line. Teasing the Hawks and the under for this game is an appealing light option.

chipper8888 · 12-10-08, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by killersweet

I don’t think Jose is a far better PG than Ford. Sure Jose is an efficient point guard and a leader, but he needs help. He is getting exploited by the fast point guards and u can blame it on his hamstring injury, but still no excuse for the way he has been playing lately. He use to be a solid shooter last season and he is struggling quite a bit with his shots too. I think having TJ on the team last year helped Jose big time.

Got to disgree with you there, but hey thats what makes a market......
Admitedly Jose is not shooting as good as he was last year but still better than ford this season with a 0.464% vs Ford at 0.423%. Check out the assists - 166 vs Ford at 105. Theres still no one I would want more to shot a 3 pointer for me down the stretch than Caulderon.

The biggest problem for Calderon right now is the fact he has no viable back up

pronk · 12-10-08, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

pronk,

when you wake up let me know what you think of Creighton-6.5

CK, Creighton is very good home court team but 6.5 against the Flyers is a lot. This game could go either way and the winner could be decided in the last 30 secs of this match.

killersweet · 12-10-08, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by chipper8888

Got to disgree with you there, but hey thats what makes a market......
Admitedly Jose is not shooting as good as he was last year but still better than ford this season with a 0.464% vs Ford at 0.423%. Check out the assists - 166 vs Ford at 105. Theres still no one I would want more to shot a 3 pointer for me down the stretch than Caulderon.

The biggest problem for Calderon right now is the fact he has no viable back up

Well, I am not saying that TJ is a better player than Jose. Although I think Jose is not superior to TJ by much. I am saying having TJ in Toronto actually helped Jose. Sure Jose needs a viable backup, but that doesn’t explain the porous defense he has been playing this season.

killersweet · 12-10-08, 10:56 AM

CK, GST is by 2.5?? I pounded that. and what about suns getting 12.5 against lake show?

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 11:00 AM

innovator,

I only have three tonight, and I am not playing any of them bigger than the other, so my advice is to shorten your wagers and try all three. I am still waiting on the Warriors spread, but when it comes up, I will be placing a like kind wager on them as well.

Cavs/Sixers.... I give the edge to the Sixers first half. They always play the Cavs close and the average 1st half scores for their games is 49.9 to 48.8 in favor of Cleveland. Philly has size, strength and length, which means that LeBron can't have a layup drill tonight in Rockytown. Philly is one of the tallest teams in the NBA with Dalembert manning the middle alongside Brand, Reggie Evans is a flopping nuisance with brute strength. I say that this home and home series goes in reverse of public thinking, with Philly covering the 1st game and Cleveland covering the 2nd game, due wholly to Cleveland playing last night and Philly having a few days off to listen to the media question their effort and coach Cheeks job security. They will be fired up and they are expecting a sell out crowd tonight. I say that Philly will get the job done. Overall Philly is 4-2 ats in the last 6 games against the Cavs. Cleveland is 4-2 ats when playing at Philly, but a major point about that record that can't be missed is that the Cavs have not covered a line in Philly when they have been favored by a spread of over -2. The 6.5 is a few too many points to give a team that they haven't beaten on the road by that many points in recent history. I like Philly +8. And if you wait long enough, the public will push the line up to 7 or 7.5, and then you can buy a point and make you rline 8 or 8.5.

If this game goes to Philly+7.5, then i will have to jump in and get some of the Sixer money myself playing it at Philly+8.5 which means that Cleveland has to beat them by10.

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 11:03 AM

Killersweet, I pounded it at Golden State-1.5, buying a point to get under that key number. Good lookin'

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 11:04 AM

Final card for the day:

Golden State-1.5 (bought a point to get under the key number)
San Antonio/Atlanta under 189.5
New Orleans-11

innovator · 12-10-08, 11:05 AM

wow, thanks for the breakdown.

chipper8888 · 12-10-08, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by killersweet

Well, I am not saying that TJ is a better player than Jose. Although I think Jose is not superior to TJ by much. I am saying having TJ in Toronto actually helped Jose. Sure Jose needs a viable backup, but that doesn’t explain the porous defense he has been playing this season.

Lets be honest the whole defence on that team is suspect

Killersweet respect youre opinion but I got to stop talking about calderon now as im starting to feel a little weird talking about 6ft spanish guy this much

taking the Raps in a must win tonight

Good luck to all

isiah121 · 12-10-08, 11:34 AM

Good call last night CK. What do you think about Suns +12.5?

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 12:02 PM

Good luck, chipper8888

killersweet,

I think that the lakers lines are too inflated these days and that is precisely why they are 3-6 ats in their last 9 games. I personally can't take a team that played the previous night at -12.5. The linemaker is taking full advantage of public perception when it comes to the Lakers, and for whatever reason, the public has not caught onto the 2007 New England Patriots experiment that the linesmaker is pulling with the lines for the Lakers. What's going on with the Lakers reminds me of how the Patriots covered the first 8 games last season, and when the linemaker made his adjustment to get all of the books their money back, the public was already intoxicated by the Pats and kept on riding them even though they did not cover one single game the rest of the year or playoffs.

The linemaker didn't wait that long for the Lakers. He is getting the books back their money and then some. Just wait for part two (Cleveland Cavs). Don't worry, teh Cavs success will eventually lead to empty pockets for bettors who are getting too used to riding them without question. Those spreads for the Cavs are inching upward, and I have taken notice big time. My opinion, start focusing in on the Lakers team totals when they play bad defensive teams. Play your wagers to their strengths not their weaknesses, which at this time seems to be covering spreads. match up their average score against the defensive averages of the team that they are playing.

For instance tonight they face the Suns who give up 100.3 points per game and score 100.7 on the road. Well the Lakers average 108.8 at home offensively and 95.5 defensively. With a total for this game of 216, I estimate that the Lakers team total would be 114, and Phoenix 102.

Well, in this case just going by the shear numbers, this game is favorable for the under first of all. So then with the Lakers giving up only 95.5 and Phoenix scoring 100 basically, a move could be made for Phoenix team total to go under. Since obviously the Lakers are expected to blow out the Suns, stay away from their team total and rock the under for the game. So here's what I have for you for that particular game:

Lakers/Suns under 216
Suns team total to go under 100

cocknocker · 12-10-08, 12:06 PM

isiah121,

I don't like the Suns+12.5 as much as I like the under for that game. The public is pounding the over and the Suns (72%) Don't do that. I suggest taking the under. This is not your Suns of last year, and the Lakers played a tough game last night in Sacramento and has travel involved. The totals line is too high.