RabidGolfer Picks

[DallasMaverick41]

Dammit Dallas! Now I've got the added pressure of knowing I bankrupted you if I'm wrong. Okay man, let's get this!

Sorry to bum you, I changed my mind at the very last second to LAL -0.5

Here's the other thing. Both of these teams know that their opponent is a high-scoring team. So instead of trying to outscore them, the focus from both will be on good defense.

Don't make me regret my decision...

Please tell me I made a good choice >.<

[RabidGolfer]

I don't think too much faith should be put in last year's stats since it's a new team this year (heard this before right). Denver is 9-2 over the last 11 games and Houston is 6-2 under for their last 8. What is concerning to me is that the last time Houston blew out a team (20+ pts) they went on a run of 3 consecutive games winning by 20+ back in December. Meaning that they may not slack off on their scoring and may be looking for revenge for the loss against Denver last week. But I do like that it appears they score considerably less when in Denver. Also, Denver almost gave it up to Indiana the last game so maybe they will look to tighten it down more.

In any case, I'm with you on this (maybe not as much) so BOL to the both of us.

Cool man. Hope we all get to celebrate tonight.

[DallasMaverick41]

You must really not like my decision in picking the Lakers to win by 1 if you're not responding to my last post

[RabidGolfer]

You must really not like my decision in picking the Lakers to win by 1 if you're not responding to my last post

Sorry, didn't see it. I think the lakers are killing it right now, so yeah, solid pick. You're good.

[RabidGolfer]

If things go bad for me here, I might have to put my remaining 25% on your Lakers pick.

[DallasMaverick41]

Your Lakers pick is a bit of a nail-biter, but looks like it's going the right direction.

Why do you say that? Nothing has changed since the few hours I locked in my bet.

[RabidGolfer]

Why do you say that? Nothing has changed since the few hours I locked in my bet.

I know, I realized I was looking at the Clippers game. I felt like an idiot...ha!

[RabidGolfer]

This game is going to go way over.

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-3
RPOD 1-1

Houston at Denver over 216 - loss

[Coreos]

Ouch! OK that hurt. Alot. Will try to get it back tomorrow but only so many days before need to pay the local. I'll check back tomorrow to see what plays you like.

[RabidGolfer]

Ouch! OK that hurt. Alot. Will try to get it back tomorrow but only so many days before need to pay the local. I'll check back tomorrow to see what plays you like.

Yeah, probably shouldn't follow mine bro. No guarantee I won't suck. KhmerKid is the dude you want to follow. His threads always start with "fresh start..." And he posts a new one for each day. He does a lot more research than I do and wins a lot more too. Sorry, but as you can see I'm probably not the most solid capper. Anyway, I'll keep picking regardless and see if I can dig myself out of this hole. Good luck!

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-3
RPOD 1-1

Golden State -3

I think Golden State is underrated here, because they don't have Steph Curry. They'll play Bogut and he's going to be a secret weapon inside. Everybody else seemed to rise to the occasion in the game against the Cavaliers. The only danger here is that they're coming home after a road trip And could be set up for a letdown. I don't think they take this game for granted though, because Dallas has been a high-scoring team recently. Let's Hope Golden State comes out firing threes with a high percentage. We know they can when they want to.

[DallasMaverick41]

31-24-3
RPOD 1-1

Golden State -3

I think Golden State is underrated here, because they don't have Steph Curry. They'll play Bogut and he's going to be a secret weapon inside. Everybody else seemed to rise to the occasion in the game against the Cavaliers. The only danger here is that they're coming home after a road trip And could be set up for a letdown. I don't think they take this game for granted though, because Dallas has been a high-scoring team recently. Let's Hope Golden State comes out firing threes with a high percentage. We know they can when they want to.

I woke up late at night and saw that you lost your Houston and Denver bet and I felt really bad for you...
I was happy I didn't tail you like I wanted to, but I still ended up losing all of my betting money to the Lakers losing to the Suns.
Time to re-amass some money.

[RabidGolfer]

Just start with a small amount. I had grown my balance to almost 10 times my original deposit before yesterday's loss, And I'm sure I'll do it again. When I want to go all in, I try to limit myself to 75% so I can always bounce back. Good luck!

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-4
RPOD 1-1

Golden State -3 push

Hookers

[RabidGolfer]

Lots of interesting lines tomorrow. Heat only -2.5 over pacers? Can Denver cover against the surging Hornets? Tomorrow will be fun.

[Coreos]

Yeah, probably shouldn't follow mine bro. No guarantee I won't suck. KhmerKid is the dude you want to follow. His threads always start with "fresh start..." And he posts a new one for each day. He does a lot more research than I do and wins a lot more too. Sorry, but as you can see I'm probably not the most solid capper. Anyway, I'll keep picking regardless and see if I can dig myself out of this hole. Good luck!

Nah, no biggie. Win some, lose some - any bets I make are after I've done the research, etc. And sometimes you just go with the gut, y'know? Bottom line is it all falls on me. I've looked into KKid's thread's before and he's solid, but I feel you have to really tail every game with him.

Anyway, I like the way you post the write-ups...just need to be more cautious though

[RabidGolfer]

Nah, no biggie. Win some, lose some - any bets I make are after I've done the research, etc. And sometimes you just go with the gut, y'know? Bottom line is it all falls on me. I've looked into KKid's thread's before and he's solid, but I feel you have to really tail every game with him.

Anyway, I like the way you post the write-ups...just need to be more cautious though

Yeah, I'm learning that. I'm going to be a bit more careful with the games I play, and try to keep my bet sizes smaller. Overall I'm over .500, so I guess I'm doing okay if I can manage my money better.

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD's 1-1

So nothing today yet, just leans:

Indiana +2
Philadelphia -6

Here are some thoughts on the Indiana vs Miami game. I posted the following in the Handicapper think tank as a theory that I'm working on, and I'm going to use this game as an example:

"It seems to me that, if the books are trying to maintain a 50/50 balance on both sides of the spread, the line is going to be based on public sentiment more than statistical data. With a heavily public team like the Miami Heat, couldn't this skew the line by a couple of points? An example would be today's game: Heat -2 at Pacers +2. If my hunch is correct, the line should probably be a "pick em" or even Pacers -1, but the books have it at Miami -2 so they can get more bets on the Pacers side.

There are a couple of reasons I think this works:

When the dog has home team advantage, the variance is bigger between the true line and the book line. Home team advantage seems to be amplified when it's David vs Goliath, and David actually is a good, yet underrated team.

Plus, I like the smaller spreads because theoretically that would indicate the dog is still a solid team, but just isn't getting the points because they don't have the fan-base.

Thirdly, the public is more likely to pile on to a favorite when the spread is -1 to -3, but probably would think twice if the spread is -7. In other words, I'm banking on the "mindless masses" ignoring the spread because it's so low and simply picking their team to win."

I'm thinking Pacers here purely because of the psychology of the public, and where the spread is.


With Philly, I think they'll can handle Sacramento like a Russian Mail Order bride.

Thoughts?

[RabidGolfer]

The line on Indiana just went to +2.5, so I'll probably buy it up to +3. Might wait and see if the juice comes down.

[Melda]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD's 1-1

So nothing today yet, just leans:

Indiana +2
Philadelphia -6

Here are some thoughts on the Indiana vs Miami game. I posted the following in the Handicapper think tank as a theory that I'm working on, and I'm going to use this game as an example:

"It seems to me that, if the books are trying to maintain a 50/50 balance on both sides of the spread, the line is going to be based on public sentiment more than statistical data. With a heavily public team like the Miami Heat, couldn't this skew the line by a couple of points? An example would be today's game: Heat -2 at Pacers +2. If my hunch is correct, the line should probably be a "pick em" or even Pacers -1, but the books have it at Miami -2 so they can get more bets on the Pacers side.

There are a couple of reasons I think this works:

When the dog has home team advantage, the variance is bigger between the true line and the book line. Home team advantage seems to be amplified when it's David vs Goliath, and David actually is a good, yet underrated team.

Plus, I like the smaller spreads because theoretically that would indicate the dog is still a solid team, but just isn't getting the points because they don't have the fan-base.

Thirdly, the public is more likely to pile on to a favorite when the spread is -1 to -3, but probably would think twice if the spread is -7. In other words, I'm banking on the "mindless masses" ignoring the spread because it's so low and simply picking their team to win."

I'm thinking Pacers here purely because of the psychology of the public, and where the spread is.


With Philly, I think they'll can handle Sacramento like a Russian Mail Order bride.

Thoughts?

ahhhh, im on the opposites.

[RabidGolfer]

ahhhh, im on the opposites.

No worries. As you can see, I'm wrong almost as often as I'm right. Good luck!

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Okay, here are the plays for today:

Indiana +3 (bought 0.5 pts)
Philly -6 (bought 0.5 pts)
NHL Ottawa Senators ML

Parlay on all three

Good luck!

[SoxSide Irish]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD's 1-1

So nothing today yet, just leans:

Indiana +2
Philadelphia -6

Here are some thoughts on the Indiana vs Miami game. I posted the following in the Handicapper think tank as a theory that I'm working on, and I'm going to use this game as an example:

"It seems to me that, if the books are trying to maintain a 50/50 balance on both sides of the spread, the line is going to be based on public sentiment more than statistical data. With a heavily public team like the Miami Heat, couldn't this skew the line by a couple of points? An example would be today's game: Heat -2 at Pacers +2. If my hunch is correct, the line should probably be a "pick em" or even Pacers -1, but the books have it at Miami -2 so they can get more bets on the Pacers side.

There are a couple of reasons I think this works:

When the dog has home team advantage, the variance is bigger between the true line and the book line. Home team advantage seems to be amplified when it's David vs Goliath, and David actually is a good, yet underrated team.

Plus, I like the smaller spreads because theoretically that would indicate the dog is still a solid team, but just isn't getting the points because they don't have the fan-base.

Thirdly, the public is more likely to pile on to a favorite when the spread is -1 to -3, but probably would think twice if the spread is -7. In other words, I'm banking on the "mindless masses" ignoring the spread because it's so low and simply picking their team to win."

I'm thinking Pacers here purely because of the psychology of the public, and where the spread is.


With Philly, I think they'll can handle Sacramento like a Russian Mail Order bride.

Thoughts?

Your assuming the books try to get 50/50 action on every game. I believe that this is not usually the case. When the books put out a line they have an idea of who they want to cover that game to maximize their profits. Trap games are an example of this.

[RabidGolfer]

Your assuming the books try to get 50/50 action on every game. I believe that this is not usually the case. When the books put out a line they have an idea of who they want to cover that game to maximize their profits. Trap games are an example of this.

Right, and the idea of a trap line totally supports my theory. The books know that the Pacers have the higher odds of winning, but that the Heat is the public team. The set the line at Heat -2 so King James believers will jump on the low line without questioning it. It's almost reverse psychology, because if they set the line at Heat +2 people would probably question a little more why the Heat are the dogs, and be more cautious. Am I missing something?

[riku33090]

if heat are +2, more ppl are going to jump on heat because they believe lebron and the heat shouldnt be dog in the first place

Right, and the idea of a trap line totally supports my theory. The books know that the Pacers have the higher odds of winning, but that the Heat is the public team. The set the line at Heat -2 so King James believers will jump on the low line without questioning it. It's almost reverse psychology, because if they set the line at Heat +2 people would probably question a little more why the Heat are the dogs, and be more cautious. Am I missing something?

[RabidGolfer]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Pending:

Indiana +3 (bought 0.5 pts)
Philly -6 (bought 0.5 pts)
NHL Ottawa Senators ML

Parlay on all three

Adding a little to the pot for tonight for fun:

10 team parlay ($1.00 to make $643.05):

Toronto +4
Indiana +2.5
Orlando +8.5
Milwaukee +5
Philly -6.5
Washington +6.5
Denver -7
Phoenix -3.5
Portland +4.5
Minnesota +2

Also 10 team teaser +4 pts ($4.00 to make $100) on the above teams. GLTA!

[DallasMaverick41]

31-24-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Pending:

Indiana +3 (bought 0.5 pts)
Philly -6 (bought 0.5 pts)
NHL Ottawa Senators ML

Parlay on all three

Ouch, 2/3

[RabidGolfer]

Ouch, 2/3

I know, that's what I get for including NHL. There were other nba games that could have easily been the third leg of that in hindsight.

[RabidGolfer]

Late add:

Lakers/Timberpups 2H over 101

Lakers are making shots, and I think the Timberpups will step it up and make a run.

[DallasMaverick41]

Late add:

Lakers/Timberpups 2H over 101

Lakers are making shots, and I think the Timberpups will step it up and make a run.

Please let me know what you are betting on tomorrow.
I won big today and will continue betting tomorrow.

[RabidGolfer]

Please let me know what you are betting on tomorrow.
I won big today and will continue betting tomorrow.

Nice job! I don't have all the spreads yet, but I'm leaning toward these three:

New York Knicks to crush Sac -10
Golden State minus vs Suns minus pts (don't know yet)
San Jose -1.5 pts vs Nashville

I might have more tomorrow.

[RabidGolfer]

Late add:

Lakers/Timberpups 2H over 101

Lakers are making shots, and I think the Timberpups will step it up and make a run.

That's right, I forgot...I HATE TOTALS!

[RabidGolfer]

33-26-4 YTD
RPOD 1-1

Indiana +3 (bought 0.5 pts) Win
Philly -6 (bought 0.5 pts) Win
NHL Ottawa Senators ML Loss
LAL/Minn 2H over 101 Loss

10 Team Parlay didn't make it either, but I'm not including those as picks since it was $1.00 and just for fun. Would have had a profitable night if I hadn't canceled it out with a last minute total pick on the Lakers game. *sigh* I hate totals.

[gottaWinThemAll]

Why don't you reverse parlay instead of straight up parlay? Sorry to hear about the losses. I lost my 12 team money line parlay. Picked miami, portland and phoenix to win but they lost. 9-3
Could of made 2k