RabidGolfer Picks

RabidGolfer · 01-28-13, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Rabid, you bet 77% of your bankroll on Denver last time and dominated. Can we expect the same outcome from Denver at home tonight? If so, I'm tailing you tonight.

NO! Ha, don't do that to me. That bet was unique. There is also a strong argument that the Pacers could win tonight too. Check out the write up some dude posted on my thread about this pick: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...ver-5-5-a.html I think Denver covers, but don't bet the farm on it.

As far as more picks like Denver/Sac, I don't expect them too often, and I don't want to be frivolous with them (maybe should call the Picks of the Month?). There will be more...patience

RabidGolfer · 01-28-13, 11:42 PM

27-22-2
POD 1-0

Wow, got destroyed. 0-2 tonight.

Denver -5.5 Loss
Washington -8. Loss

I almost picked Utah late. Glad I didn't. Might be time to stop fading Houston and Sac and jump on them. Need some strong games tomorrow to make up for this loss. Hope some of you did better than me tonight.

BigDofBA · 01-28-13, 11:46 PM

0-2 isn't totally horrible. You can recover.

Good luck tomorrow.

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

0-2 isn't totally horrible. You can recover.

Good luck tomorrow.

Thank you bro!

Coreos · 01-29-13, 04:17 AM

Yeah good luck tomorrow.

meyer0416 · 01-29-13, 01:30 PM

good luck today, i was on wizards, golden state, & nets... i want to parlay lakers ML with something, may be square but lakers need wins and cant afford to lose at home to sub .500 squards.. agree?

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by meyer0416

good luck today, i was on wizards, golden state, & nets... i want to parlay lakers ML with something, may be square but lakers need wins and cant afford to lose at home to sub .500 squards.. agree?

Yeah, Lakers need wins. They seem to be improving, so it may be a good bet. Good luck!

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

6-0-1

Monday night results:

Sac -5 (bought .5 pts) Win
Dallas -7 Win
LA Clips +4 (bought .5 pts) Win
Chicago -4 (bought .5 pts) Win
Boston -11 Push
Washington -1 (bought .5 pts) Win
Utah +3 Win

So since this first day when I had 6 wins, a push, and 0 losses, I've pretty much been a .500 bettor. I need to be a better bettor, and I better bet better bets or I bet my bets will result in debts.

Probably going to tail KhmerKid today here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...1-29-13-a.html because I don't have a good feel for any of the games. The next big play I'm looking at is NHL next Saturday: Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks. I may take the Sharks on this -1.5 pts for all the marbles (or at least a large percentage of my bankroll). We'll see. If I tail today, I'll post them here.

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 06:28 PM

27-22-2
POD 1-0

Here's what I've got money on tonight:

New Orleans +8 (bought .5 pts)
New Orleans vs LA Over 196
Milwaukee -1 (bought .5 pts)
Milwaukee vs Detroit over 201
Dallas vs Portland under 203
Golden State vs Cleveland under 203

Good luck!

DallasMaverick41 · 01-29-13, 06:51 PM

I put all of my money on the moneyline on Denver last night and I was so surprised when Denver only beat the Pacers by 1 point. Nevertheless, I won.

I'm betting just a tiny bit on Milwaukee vs Detroit Under 201.

Best of luck to you.
I hope you have one of those "for sure" bets soon

I need to go big this week and waiting for OKC to play on Thursday against the Memphis Grizzlies. Going to put all of my money on OKC.
Let me know on Thursday how you feel about this bet.

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 09:19 PM

David Lee's last minute unnecessary tip in just cost me a cover. Stinking overachievers! That's okay I'll take the push

Coreos · 01-29-13, 09:34 PM

Fckn Lee!!! I had the under at 202.5 and the 2H over at 97.5 and was trying to get the middle. Had a 5 pt gap.

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by Coreos

Fckn Lee!!! I had the under at 202.5 and the 2H over at 97.5 and was trying to get the middle. Had a 5 pt gap.

I feel your pain bro!

RabidGolfer · 01-29-13, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

I put all of my money on the moneyline on Denver last night and I was so surprised when Denver only beat the Pacers by 1 point. Nevertheless, I won.

I'm betting just a tiny bit on Milwaukee vs Detroit Under 201.

Best of luck to you.
I hope you have one of those "for sure" bets soon

I need to go big this week and waiting for OKC to play on Thursday against the Memphis Grizzlies. Going to put all of my money on OKC.
Let me know on Thursday how you feel about this bet.

That could be a good bet. I guess it depends on what the line ends up being. I'm not sure I have the balls to put a hundred percent of my bankroll on any one game, but more power to you. Respect

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 01:04 AM

31-23-3
POD 1-0

New Orleans +8 (bought .5 pts) Win
New Orleans vs LA Over 196 Win
Milwaukee -1 (bought .5 pts) Win
Milwaukee vs Detroit over 201 Win
Dallas vs Portland under 203 Loss
Golden State vs Cleveland under 203 Push

4-1-1 tonight. Happy!

gottaWinThemAll · 01-30-13, 01:16 AM

I'll take your picks into consideration. Good job on the wins tonight. I went 1-3 but I parlayed. Keep up the good work!

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by gottaWinThemAll

I'll take your picks into consideration. Good job on the wins tonight. I went 1-3 but I parlayed. Keep up the good work!

Thank you sir

gottaWinThemAll · 01-30-13, 01:28 AM

Are you parlaying or straight betting?

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by gottaWinThemAll

Are you parlaying or straight betting?

Mainly straight bets and a teaser here and there. Parlays don't hit often for me.

gottaWinThemAll · 01-30-13, 02:06 AM

When are you posting your picks for todays games?

Coreos · 01-30-13, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

31-23-3
POD 1-0

New Orleans +8 (bought .5 pts) Win
New Orleans vs LA Over 196 Win
Milwaukee -1 (bought .5 pts) Win
Milwaukee vs Detroit over 201 Win
Dallas vs Portland under 203 Loss
Golden State vs Cleveland under 203 Push

4-1-1 tonight. Happy!

Nice bounceback bro! I'm in the hole (put in Cavs early in the morning + Mavs) so if you got a strong pick tomorrow, put it out please! BTW, which was your POD for today? Did I miss which of your picks was labelled as POD?

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by Coreos

Nice bounceback bro! I'm in the hole (put in Cavs early in the morning + Mavs) so if you got a strong pick tomorrow, put it out please! BTW, which was your POD for today? Did I miss which of your picks was labelled as POD?

Sorry man, I haven't had a POD since that first one. I need to call them something else, like "Rabid Riches" or some other non-sense. In all seriousness, I'm looking at an NHL game on Friday that I may go big on. I'll make sure it's really obvious if I do. Hope you get some strong plays today. Here's how I'm leaning (no bets yet):

Nets +2
Houston @ Denver under 217
Utah -7

I'm still waiting on Bovada to post all their lines (they're so stinking slow sometimes), and I want to check on these before I lay any money to make sure I'm not missing something. You guys have any thoughts?

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 01:26 PM

Guys, the more I look at the Houston @ Denver game, the more I want to take the total under 217. It's a huge total because both teams have been running up the points at times, but check out these stats:

2012-2013
Houston's points per game this year against Denver = 91
Houston's points per game this year on the road = 101
Denver's points per game at home this year = 107
Denver's points per game this year vs Houston = 99

Based on this year's stats, both teams score considerably lower than their averages when playing each other. They've only been matched up twice this year, and both times were in Houston, so lets look at last year's numbers:

2011-2012
Houston's points per game against Denver = 98
Houston's points per game on the road = 96
Denver's points per game at home = 103
Denver's points per game vs Houston = 103

Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to believe the total could exceed 217. Denver seems to hold Houston to a ppg average well below their overall average. It's a small sample size, but I think its enough for me to bet heavy on the under tonight. Especially considering both teams have been increasing their defensive efforts.

While I was writing this, the doggone line moved a point, so I'm going to throw caution to the wind and drop 75% of my bankroll on this one.
RABID PICK OF THE DAY Houston @ Denver under 216

I'm going big on this one boys. Play at your own risk! Good luck!

SaffaCappa · 01-30-13, 03:19 PM

Good luck with this play! 75% of your bankroll on one game? Bit risky

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by SaffaCappa

Good luck with this play! 75% of your bankroll on one game? Bit risky

Very risky over time. I think this play hits though, and I'd rather risk a big loss than wish I had bet more on it. I'm usually not that good at finding value, so when I see a line I really like I'm trying to jump on it. We'll see what happens.

riku33090 · 01-30-13, 03:41 PM

you have to realize the first time they played, it was the beginning of the season, both team were looking for identity. and the second time they played, rockets were in a midst of losing streak. Now this time, im sure you are aware the fact that rockets scored over 120 2 of the past 3 games, including a 45 pts blow out in Utah. Im leaning towards under too but i wouldn't put 75% of my bankroll. Denver -4 sounds better.

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Guys, the more I look at the Houston @ Denver game, the more I want to take the total under 217. It's a huge total because both teams have been running up the points at times, but check out these stats:

2012-2013
Houston's points per game this year against Denver = 91
Houston's points per game this year on the road = 101
Denver's points per game at home this year = 107
Denver's points per game this year vs Houston = 99

Based on this year's stats, both teams score considerably lower than their averages when playing each other. They've only been matched up twice this year, and both times were in Houston, so lets look at last year's numbers:

2011-2012
Houston's points per game against Denver = 98
Houston's points per game on the road = 96
Denver's points per game at home = 103
Denver's points per game vs Houston = 103

Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to believe the total could exceed 217. Denver seems to hold Houston to a ppg average well below their overall average. It's a small sample size, but I think its enough for me to bet heavy on the under tonight. Especially considering both teams have been increasing their defensive efforts.

While I was writing this, the doggone line moved a point, so I'm going to throw caution to the wind and drop 75% of my bankroll on this one.
RABID PICK OF THE DAY Houston @ Denver under 216

I'm going big on this one boys. Play at your own risk! Good luck!

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by riku33090

you have to realize the first time they played, it was the beginning of the season, both team were looking for identity. and the second time they played, rockets were in a midst of losing streak. Now this time, im sure you are aware the fact that rockets scored over 120 2 of the past 3 games, including a 45 pts blow out in Utah. Im leaning towards under too but i wouldn't put 75% of my bankroll. Denver -4 sounds better.

I considered Denver -4, but I think the Rockets are coming around and wouldn't want to risk an upset. They way they blew out Utah was stunning, and could very well do the same to Denver. What's telling to me is that they held Utah to 80 points. EXCELLENT defense. Denver has also been playing good D, and I think between those two defenses you're going to see a lower scoring game. I know there have been some high scores, but I don't see it happening today. Hope I'm right.

riku33090 · 01-30-13, 04:13 PM

yea hopefully its a low scoring game.

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

I considered Denver -4, but I think the Rockets are coming around and wouldn't want to risk an upset. They way they blew out Utah was stunning, and could very well do the same to Denver. What's telling to me is that they held Utah to 80 points. EXCELLENT defense. Denver has also been playing good D, and I think between those two defenses you're going to see a lower scoring game. I know there have been some high scores, but I don't see it happening today. Hope I'm right.

DallasMaverick41 · 01-30-13, 06:03 PM

Rabid, are these one of your "I'm pretty sure I'll win" bets? I remember you going big on Denver last time and winning and now you're going back again with them and Houston.

DallasMaverick41 · 01-30-13, 06:32 PM

Also, why don't you take Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Over?
I'm thinking about going all in on that, thoughts?

Coreos · 01-30-13, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

Guys, the more I look at the Houston @ Denver game, the more I want to take the total under 217. It's a huge total because both teams have been running up the points at times, but check out these stats:

2012-2013
Houston's points per game this year against Denver = 91
Houston's points per game this year on the road = 101
Denver's points per game at home this year = 107
Denver's points per game this year vs Houston = 99

Based on this year's stats, both teams score considerably lower than their averages when playing each other. They've only been matched up twice this year, and both times were in Houston, so lets look at last year's numbers:

2011-2012
Houston's points per game against Denver = 98
Houston's points per game on the road = 96
Denver's points per game at home = 103
Denver's points per game vs Houston = 103

Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to believe the total could exceed 217. Denver seems to hold Houston to a ppg average well below their overall average. It's a small sample size, but I think its enough for me to bet heavy on the under tonight. Especially considering both teams have been increasing their defensive efforts.

While I was writing this, the doggone line moved a point, so I'm going to throw caution to the wind and drop 75% of my bankroll on this one.
RABID PICK OF THE DAY Houston @ Denver under 216

I'm going big on this one boys. Play at your own risk! Good luck!

I don't think too much faith should be put in last year's stats since it's a new team this year (heard this before right). Denver is 9-2 over the last 11 games and Houston is 6-2 under for their last 8. What is concerning to me is that the last time Houston blew out a team (20+ pts) they went on a run of 3 consecutive games winning by 20+ back in December. Meaning that they may not slack off on their scoring and may be looking for revenge for the loss against Denver last week. But I do like that it appears they score considerably less when in Denver. Also, Denver almost gave it up to Indiana the last game so maybe they will look to tighten it down more.

In any case, I'm with you on this (maybe not as much) so BOL to the both of us.

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Also, why don't you take Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Over?
I'm thinking about going all in on that, thoughts?

I didn't really look at the Chicago Milwaukee game, so that one may be a good play also. The last time I went big on a game I was 95% sure. This time I would say I'm 75% sure. I don't want to bring you with me if I'm wrong, so if you play it, play small.

DallasMaverick41 · 01-30-13, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by RabidGolfer

I didn't really look at the Chicago Milwaukee game, so that one may be a good play also. The last time I went big on a game I was 95% sure. This time I would say I'm 75% sure. I don't want to bring you with me if I'm wrong, so if you play it, play small.

Tailing you
All in on this one
Make it or break it

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by DallasMaverick41

Tailing you
All in on this one
Make it or break it

Dammit Dallas! Now I've got the added pressure of knowing I bankrupted you if I'm wrong. Okay man, let's get this!

RabidGolfer · 01-30-13, 07:15 PM

Here's the other thing. Both of these teams know that their opponent is a high-scoring team. So instead of trying to outscore them, the focus from both will be on good defense.