nba chase 12/13

[mrk77]

and it's only a "D" game for 50% of you guys!! Officially in my book 50% of us lost the game the game already.

Then that means 50% of you are idiots.

[Asset]

I hope Stif is okay. He normally post the plays already...

If not I guess I might have to play MNF

[Vandyb3ar]

Then that means 50% of you are idiots.

Nope, it means 50% of us got a line that differed to Stifler's (which also happened to be the closing line, which this entire system is based on). There's no need to call people names in an adult conversation, especially as calling someone an idiot in a situation as ungrounded as this generally just points to your own idiocy.

Anyway, agree with everyone saying that we should wait for Stifler to post the plays! Also, looks like we escape some stress today Grinder at a cost of course haha

[Stifler]

03.12.2012

S2

(D Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u | Detroit - waiting...

S3

(A Bet) Tor fade: Denver - waiting...

[mrk77]

Nope, it means 50% of us got a line that differed to Stifler's (which also happened to be the closing line, which this entire system is based on). There's no need to call people names in an adult conversation, especially as calling someone an idiot in a situation as ungrounded as this generally just points to your own idiocy.

Anyway, agree with everyone saying that we should wait for Stifler to post the plays! Also, looks like we escape some stress today Grinder at a cost of course haha

This is Stifler's system and we are following it according to the lines he posts, I agree that sometimes the lines are off a bit but a very simple solution is to buy the points to match the system. You'll pay a little more juice if the play loses but this is a chase and in theory you won't pay any juice if the series wins, right? You just add the lost vig to the "b" bet. Why are 50% of you not following the system and then complaining that you already lost the d bet? Nobody is forcing you to do this. This is a pretty simple system to follow, almost "idiot" proof...Stifler posts the plays, you place your bets. If the line you get is -4.5 but Stifler posts -4, you buy a .5 point, if the bet loses and you lose $120 instead of $110 because of the point you bought, guess what? Your "b" bet will be $220 instead of $210. Is this that complicated or is everyone bored and likes a little drama to make the day go faster?

[mrk77]

calling someone an idiot in a situation as ungrounded as this generally just points to your own idiocy

Did you just call me an idiot?

[Grinder12000]

Juice - well. Some say you only pay juice when you lose - I believe you only pay juice when you win.

I'm still not 100% sold on the whole "you never pay juice" thing.

Not fond of buying points -research shows that statistically it's not a smart way to use your money. Like teasers. It's a negative expectation play.

And yes- No stress today for US!!! LOL Relax and watch the 4 games I'm playing!

[and24]

@mrk77
This system is actually based on closing lines on covers, so these guys who lost the D bet already, Just obeyed the rules that Stiffler had written down in the first post.
Read the rules carefully before calling people idiots.

[Asset]

This is Stifler's system and we are following it according to the lines he posts, I agree that sometimes the lines are off a bit but a very simple solution is to buy the points to match the system. You'll pay a little more juice if the play loses but this is a chase and in theory you won't pay any juice if the series wins, right? You just add the lost vig to the "b" bet. Why are 50% of you not following the system and then complaining that you already lost the d bet? Nobody is forcing you to do this. This is a pretty simple system to follow, almost "idiot" proof...Stifler posts the plays, you place your bets. If the line you get is -4.5 but Stifler posts -4, you buy a .5 point, if the bet loses and you lose $120 instead of $110 because of the point you bought, guess what? Your "b" bet will be $220 instead of $210. Is this that complicated or is everyone bored and likes a little drama to make the day go faster?

Okay I'm usually not the one that want to argue with you, but can you tell me who is complaining? I think people are just stating that they didn't have to worry about a "D Bet" today. If you call that complaining then...

On a side note; you've mentioned system...no? Well I hate to bust your bubble, but the system is base on the closing line taken from covers. So why do you have to buy points? I don't think you understand what you are talking about.

I don't know how you was raised, but calling people names is not cool, but hey I'm not you...have a nice day

@Stif: Sorry to cause any problems

[Asset]

@mrk77
this system is actually based on closing lines on covers, so these guys who lost the d bet already, just obeyed the rules that stiffler had written down in the first post.
Read the rules carefully before calling people idiots.

i totally agree!!!

[alexknyc]

Juice - well. Some say you only pay juice when you lose - I believe you only pay juice when you win.

I'm still not 100% sold on the whole "you never pay juice" thing.

Not fond of buying points -research shows that statistically it's not a smart way to use your money. Like teasers. It's a negative expectation play.

And yes- No stress today for US!!! LOL Relax and watch the 4 games I'm playing!

I'm not sure I understand. How do you pay juice when you win?

[Grinder12000]

When you buy something for $110 and only get $100 back - you paid $10 juice.
When you buy something for $110 and lose it all - you did not pay juice.

You lost all $110 - you are not paying anything EXTRA - you bet 110 and lost 110. I win more then I lose and I lose that juice every time I win.

It's all how you look at it.

AND BTW - This systems BACK TESTING is based on the closing lines at Covers. There are other closing lines where the system acts differently. Everybody will have their own numbers.

Anybody that suggests that a person should wait all day to get the Covers closing line is fooling himself. Get the best line you can and closing is NORMALLY not the best line. Sometimes a book will not go lower.

And "I" personally am not complaining. Not a drop. I've back tested S1 for 10 years on every team and I'm following Stifler AND augmenting with my own findings. I don't always agree with Stif but I'll play him. NOT a fan of S1 Fade Toronto but I'm on board with it.

[Asset]

I'm not sure I understand. How do you pay juice when you win?

IF YOU WIN...
I think that's what Grinder means, I'm not sure thou

[mrk77]

@mrk77
This system is actually based on closing lines on covers, so these guys who lost the D bet already, Just obeyed the rules that Stiffler had written down in the first post.
Read the rules carefully before calling people idiots.

I don't have time to read the last 300 posts but I'd like to know out of curiosity which game is the one that pushed for some and lost for others? What was the spread difference? Thanks

[Fed_42420]

i missed something, why isnt this a D bet for some?

[Asset]

i missed something, why isnt this a d bet for some?

lmao!!!!!!

[thelimit0310]

When you buy something for $110 and only get $100 back - you paid $10 juice.
When you buy something for $110 and lose it all - you did not pay juice.

You lost all $110 - you are not paying anything EXTRA - you bet 110 and lost 110. I win more then I lose and I lose that juice every time I win.

It's all how you look at it.

AND BTW - This systems BACK TESTING is based on the closing lines at Covers. There are other closing lines where the system acts differently. Everybody will have their own numbers.

Anybody that suggests that a person should wait all day to get the Covers closing line is fooling himself. Get the best line you can and closing is NORMALLY not the best line. Sometimes a book will not go lower.

When you win you don't just get $100 back you get $210 back total. So no you don't pay juice on a win.

The system SHOULD be held to the standard of the Covers closing line for the sake of accuracy. If you get a better line of course take it, but the results that have been posted here are based on Covers closing lines and for those results to stay accurate and expected then that is the site you have to use. When I post the 7/5 plays over in the JM thread, I don't post what I personally get, I post the lines from the site I used to backtest because that keeps things accurate and consistent (and generally it is also the line that most people will get, since Covers is an aggregate). The very instant you start recording results based on what you personally get, go ahead and take the back tested results and burn them.

[Asset]

I'm going for my "E Bet" today, but with only a couple of units. Plus they have two players out for today's game. Also the public is on Cle. normally that's a good sign for fade

[thelimit0310]

This is Stifler's system and we are following it according to the lines he posts, I agree that sometimes the lines are off a bit but a very simple solution is to buy the points to match the system. You'll pay a little more juice if the play loses but this is a chase and in theory you won't pay any juice if the series wins, right? You just add the lost vig to the "b" bet. Why are 50% of you not following the system and then complaining that you already lost the d bet? Nobody is forcing you to do this. This is a pretty simple system to follow, almost "idiot" proof...Stifler posts the plays, you place your bets. If the line you get is -4.5 but Stifler posts -4, you buy a .5 point, if the bet loses and you lose $120 instead of $110 because of the point you bought, guess what? Your "b" bet will be $220 instead of $210. Is this that complicated or is everyone bored and likes a little drama to make the day go faster?

So many things wrong with this post. A simpler solution is to just go by Covers because that is what was used in the backtest. Screw Stiflers personal lines, they don't carry any value in this system. The results are expected from Covers closing lines, if you want that consistency to continue then that is the final word, not Stifler's line. If you buy points to match him and the series loses your digging a hole. The people here who lost the D bet are the people here who ARE following the system as laid out.

I can't believe this is such a hotly contested topic. It's system betting 101

[mrk77]

Okay I'm usually not the one that want to argue with you, but can you tell me who is complaining? I think people are just stating that they didn't have to worry about a "D Bet" today. If you call that complaining then...

On a side note; you've mentioned system...no? Well I hate to bust your bubble, but the system is base on the closing line taken from covers. So why do you have to buy points? I don't think you understand what you are talking about.

I don't know how you was raised, but calling people names is not cool, but hey I'm not you...have a nice day

@Stif: Sorry to cause any problems

I couldn't care less about covers closing line no matter what the rules of the system are concerning the lines. Stifler posts the lines he gets and that's what I follow. If he's in Europe and there's a 5 or 6 hour time difference, there's a good chance the line will move by game time but we can't expect him to update the lines at 1-2 in the morning over there. You can all go back to page 1 and read the rules over and over again but bottom line is that if you don't follow the same lines, you're not following the system. I buy points to match the lines that are posted when I have to, what's so hard to understand about that? I don't think you get it, it's common sense. I see it as complaining when someone keeps stating something but that's just my opinion and everyone here seems to have one. Sorry if I offended anyone by using the word idiot but another opinion of mine is that if you weren't one,you wouldn't be offended. Have a nice day

[mrk77]

So many things wrong with this post. A simpler solution is to just go by Covers because that is what was used in the backtest. Screw Stiflers personal lines, they don't carry any value in this system. The results are expected from Covers closing lines, if you want that consistency to continue then that is the final word, not Stifler's line. If you buy points to match him and the series loses your digging a hole. The people here who lost the D bet are the people here who ARE following the system as laid out.

I can't believe this is such a hotly contested topic. It's system betting 101

To each their own, I don't mind buying points.

[Asset]

I couldn't care less about covers closing line no matter what the rules of the system are concerning the lines. Stifler posts the lines he gets and that's what I follow. If he's in Europe and there's a 5 or 6 hour time difference, there's a good chance the line will move by game time but we can't expect him to update the lines at 1-2 in the morning over there. You can all go back to page 1 and read the rules over and over again but bottom line is that if you don't follow the same lines, you're not following the system. I buy points to match the lines that are posted when I have to, what's so hard to understand about that? I don't think you get it, it's common sense. I see it as complaining when someone keeps stating something but that's just my opinion and everyone here seems to have one. Sorry if I offended anyone by using the word idiot but another opinion of mine is that if you weren't one,you wouldn't be offended. Have a nice day

And you still don't understand. I guess everyone has a different way of thinking, but it's fine Anyways, were all here for one thing "earn money", so I don't want to argue with you about this in Stif's thread.

Btw, just a friendly advice, in the future please choose your words wisely b4 using them. Thank-you

[tr4sh]

mrk77, you seem to think people are complaining/whining about the system or Stifler. No one is doing that. They're just stating facts that some people already lost this series and it's not "wrong" that they did. No need to be so defensive man.

FYI, words do offend people and I'm pretty sure you are a person as well so please don't act as if you're "above" it .

Anyways, onto tonight's bets... bol

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I'm with Fed...why isn't this a D bet for some...the 50% masses who've lost already? I've kept the plays since I've started following Stif. Here's what I got for the current Cleveland fade (S2): 24Nov Mia , 26Nov Mem, 30-Nov Atl, 3-Dec (tonight). Tonight's the "D" bet. The Miami fade v Cleveland was S4 on 24Nov and a whole separate chase. The S4 won and stopped, the S2 didn't and continued on.

[Riceboi]

And "I" personally am not complaining. Not a drop. I've back tested S1 for 10 years on every team and I'm following Stifler AND augmenting with my own findings. I don't always agree with Stif but I'll play him. NOT a fan of S1 Fade Toronto but I'm on board with it.

Was every season you tested profitable just blinding playing the S1 system on every single team?

[fooubar]

So many things wrong with this post. A simpler solution is to just go by Covers because that is what was used in the backtest. Screw Stiflers personal lines, they don't carry any value in this system. The results are expected from Covers closing lines, if you want that consistency to continue then that is the final word, not Stifler's line.

That is not true, if you constatly can pick better lines than the closing lines you gain an extra edge. It can make a big difference.
I would even go that far and rely on handicapping knowledge to sometimes even skip some of those series, when I look at the schedule and decide it's not a good spot.

The reason is I've done some back testing and started to doubt this whole thing, simply the way this is developed.

Stifler just filtered out the profitable teams, based on some rules. It doesn't mean these teams will be value in the future, it can be completely random.
The funny thing with this chase system, each series is only supposed to lose 0.5^4 ~ 6.25%, that means you can go unbeaten on a lot of those series although you didn't pick any value and had no edge, simply because they win 93.75% of the time even if you do it randomly.

[mrk77]

mrk77, you seem to think people are complaining/whining about the system or Stifler. No one is doing that. They're just stating facts that some people already lost this series and it's not "wrong" that they did. No need to be so defensive man.

FYI, words do offend people and I'm pretty sure you are a person as well so please don't act as if you're "above" it .

Anyways, onto tonight's bets... bol

you're right, I'm just fed up with all these posts. I read this thread to see what the plays are and that's it. 934 posts is ridiculous in such a short period of time and I'm partly at fault also but I'm just hoping that some people can see it the same as I do and realize there's no need for all of this. If I decide to start my own thread and post picks with the line I got and won but you waited until game time to place your bet but the line moved and you lost, how is that my problem? I would count it as a win in my record regardless of what the closing line was. That's just me I guess. Sorry for calling people idiots...you bunch of babies lol just kidding. Gl on tonight's plays!

[Stifler]

03.12.2012

S2

(D Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u | Detroit -4,5 10,19u

S3

(A Bet) Tor fade: Denver - waiting...

[fooubar]

Since Stifler made his method public.
I've done some back testing on my own and I've come up with the following:

(0 = A, 1 = B, 2 = C, 3 = D bet) I'm a programmer, you know these arrays start with 0, to lazy to convert the output ;D

Atlanta

S1 loss streak last 6 years:
0 bet 13 - 18 - win_pct 0.42
1 bet 7 - 11 - win_pct 0.39
2 bet 9 - 2 - win_pct 0.82
3 bet 2 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 31.000000

S1 loss streak last 3 years:
0 bet 4 - 10 - win_pct 0.29
1 bet 4 - 6 - win_pct 0.40
2 bet 5 - 1 - win_pct 0.83
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 14.000000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 0 - 2 - win_pct 0.00
1 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
2 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - N/A
profit: 2.000000

They are 31-31 ATS last 6 years and 14-17 ATS, 2-3 ATS last year when you bet on them. I'm curious why you picked this team? They covered mostly on C,D bets and A,B bets on them are mostly losers.

Chicago

S1 loss streak last 6 years:
0 bet 14 - 11 - win_pct 0.56
1 bet 6 - 5 - win_pct 0.55
2 bet 3 - 2 - win_pct 0.60
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: 5.550000

S1 loss streak last 3 years:
0 bet 4 - 6 - win_pct 0.40
1 bet 2 - 4 - win_pct 0.33
2 bet 3 - 1 - win_pct 0.75
3 bet 0 - 1 - win_pct 0.00
profit: -9.450000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 0 - 1 - win_pct 0.00
1 bet 0 - 1 - win_pct 0.00
2 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - N/A
profit: 1.000000

Oh well, that team I would not fade. They also changed to a good playoff in the last years, might coincide why they actually lost in the last 3 years playing S1 fade on them.

Detroit

S1 win streak last 6 years:
0 bet 14 - 14 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 9 - 5 - win_pct 0.64
2 bet 3 - 2 - win_pct 0.60
3 bet 0 - 2 - win_pct 0.00
profit: -10.900000

S1 loss streak last 6 years:
0 bet 18 - 11 - win_pct 0.62
1 bet 4 - 7 - win_pct 0.36
2 bet 4 - 3 - win_pct 0.57
3 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
profit: -9.900000

Why is this even S1?

New Jersey (Brooklyn) I wouldn't touch them for S1 loss, just because they are a much different team this year. I've noticed this on some teams like Chicago and Oklahoma City as well, when those teams start becoming contenders those losing streaks start becoming unprofitable very quickly and it's showing in the 6 to 3 year comparison. Especially here I suspect fading them this year could be costly.

Denver

S1 win streak last 6 years:
0 bet 16 - 21 - win_pct 0.43
1 bet 9 - 12 - win_pct 0.43
2 bet 7 - 5 - win_pct 0.58
3 bet 1 - 4 - win_pct 0.20
profit: -40.800000

S1 loss streak last 6 years:
0 bet 15 - 7 - win_pct 0.68
1 bet 4 - 3 - win_pct 0.57
2 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: 2.550000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 8 - 4 - win_pct 0.67
1 bet 2 - 2 - win_pct 0.50
2 bet 0 - 2 - win_pct 0.00
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: -7.450000

Why is it even on the S1 list?

Utah

S1 loss streak last 6 years:
0 bet 12 - 12 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 8 - 4 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 2 - 2 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: 4.550000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 4 - 6 - win_pct 0.40
1 bet 4 - 2 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 0 - 1 - win_pct 0.00
profit: -9.450000

Would not fade them...

Toronto

S1 win streak last 6:
0 bet 16 - 14 - win_pct 0.53
1 bet 6 - 8 - win_pct 0.43
2 bet 5 - 3 - win_pct 0.63
3 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
profit: 10.550000

S1 win streak last 3:
0 bet 6 - 8 - win_pct 0.43
1 bet 2 - 6 - win_pct 0.25
2 bet 5 - 1 - win_pct 0.83
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 14.000000

S1 win streak last year:
0 bet 2 - 4 - win_pct 0.33
1 bet 2 - 2 - win_pct 0.50
2 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 6.000000

I don't know with this team, since Bosh is gone they are different. And it's actually 14-15 ATS last 3 and 6-7 ATS and last year with lots of A, B bets losing could be completely random.

Sacramento

S1 loss streak last 6:
0 bet 21 - 15 - win_pct 0.58
1 bet 7 - 8 - win_pct 0.47
2 bet 4 - 4 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 3 - 1 - win_pct 0.75
profit: 16.550000

S1 loss streak last 3:
0 bet 11 - 7 - win_pct 0.61
1 bet 4 - 3 - win_pct 0.57
2 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: -1.450000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 4 - 4 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 1 - 3 - win_pct 0.25
2 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: -11.450000

Yep would not fade them either.

San Antonio

S1 loss streak last 6:
0 bet 5 - 5 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 3 - 2 - win_pct 0.60
2 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 0 - 1 - win_pct 0.00
profit: -9.450000

S1 loss streak last 3:
0 bet 11 - 16 - win_pct 0.41
1 bet 11 - 5 - win_pct 0.69
2 bet 2 - 3 - win_pct 0.40
3 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
profit: -11.900000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
1 bet 0 - 0 - N/A
2 bet 0 - 0 - N/A
3 bet 0 - 0 - N/A
profit: 1.000000

Why fade them?

I personally will make those changes above and also add those teams:

Cleveland

S1 loss streak last 6:
0 bet 15 - 15 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 9 - 6 - win_pct 0.60
2 bet 4 - 2 - win_pct 0.67
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: 10.550000

S1 loss streak last 3:
0 bet 10 - 9 - win_pct 0.53
1 bet 6 - 3 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 19.000000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 3 - 3 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 1 - 2 - win_pct 0.33
2 bet 2 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 6.000000

Looks good, might have smth. to do with LeBron gone, although I suspect this can change soon, once they develop into a plaoff team again, but not this season.

Oklahoma City

S1 win streak last 6:
0 bet 15 - 18 - win_pct 0.45
1 bet 9 - 9 - win_pct 0.50
2 bet 4 - 5 - win_pct 0.44
3 bet 4 - 1 - win_pct 0.80
profit: 13.550000

S1 win streak last 3:
0 bet 9 - 6 - win_pct 0.60
1 bet 3 - 3 - win_pct 0.50
2 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 15.000000

S1 win streak last year:
0 bet 3 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
1 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
2 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 3.000000

Since Durant, Westbrook made them a playoff team this looks like a good S1 follow team.

Portland

S1 loss streak last 6:
0 bet 13 - 13 - win_pct 0.50
1 bet 7 - 6 - win_pct 0.54
2 bet 5 - 1 - win_pct 0.83
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 26.000000

S1 loss streak last 3:
0 bet 4 - 7 - win_pct 0.36
1 bet 3 - 4 - win_pct 0.43
2 bet 4 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 11.000000

S1 loss streak:
0 bet 0 - 3 - win_pct 0.00
1 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 3.000000

Although I don't like these ATS stats too much I'm adding them to the fade list, I think the situation with this team is not great. Weak bench and starters play loads of minutes, I can see them getting exhausted playing many games in a row so that you get a C,D bet win in the worst case.

Washington

S1 loss streak last 6:
0 bet 18 - 23 - win_pct 0.44
1 bet 15 - 8 - win_pct 0.65
2 bet 3 - 5 - win_pct 0.38
3 bet 4 - 1 - win_pct 0.80
profit: 21.550000

S1 loss streak last 3:
0 bet 10 - 12 - win_pct 0.45
1 bet 8 - 4 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 2 - 2 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
profit: 2.550000

S1 loss streak last year:
0 bet 4 - 1 - win_pct 0.80
1 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
2 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 5.000000

Fading them aswell.

Posting this to inspire some discussion. Not entirely sure if those numbers are 100% correct, just programmed it yesterday in a couple hours, but those teams I reviewed manually and compared to the output were correct.

[fooubar]

And by the way that Cleveland series that is going to a D bet, these are the split up stats for Cleveland last 6 years:

S2 loss streak H:
0 bet 11 - 3 - win_pct 0.79
1 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
2 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 14.000000
S2 loss streak A:
0 bet 3 - 6 - win_pct 0.33
1 bet 2 - 4 - win_pct 0.33
2 bet 1 - 3 - win_pct 0.25
3 bet 2 - 1 - win_pct 0.67
profit: -10.450000
S2 win streak H:
0 bet 9 - 5 - win_pct 0.64
1 bet 3 - 2 - win_pct 0.60
2 bet 1 - 1 - win_pct 0.50
3 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
profit: 14.000000
S2 win streak A:
0 bet 7 - 8 - win_pct 0.47
1 bet 7 - 1 - win_pct 0.88
2 bet 1 - 0 - win_pct 1.00
3 bet 0 - 0 - win_pct N/A
profit: 15.000000

[Grinder12000]

fooubar - noce work and I'll absorb it over time - one thing you mentioned when speaking of Brooklin who I LOVE in Winning streaks.

I don't think it matters WHO is on the team at all. I feel we are handicapping the town and organization, not the players.

DET Why is this even S1?

Yea - I agree on that one! same with Denver BUT - I don't think we have the entire system but we are of like mind. HOWEVER - this is the beauty of what Stifler has done - tweaked our brains and shown us a path.

[thelimit0310]

Good info fooubar, If the numbers are correct I can't help but wonder as well what some of those teams are doing on the play list.

[Wallco99]

Why is anyone but Stiffler posting plays?

If everyone would simply let Stiffler post the plays and ask "aren't (insert team here) a play too?" questions by PM, this thread would be a lot less of a clusterfuck.

I tried to give you 200 points but I was limited to two!

[thelimit0310]

I'm with Fed...why isn't this a D bet for some...the 50% masses who've lost already? I've kept the plays since I've started following Stif. Here's what I got for the current Cleveland fade (S2): 24Nov Mia , 26Nov Mem, 30-Nov Atl, 3-Dec (tonight). Tonight's the "D" bet. The Miami fade v Cleveland was S4 on 24Nov and a whole separate chase. The S4 won and stopped, the S2 didn't and continued on.

The play before Mia was the real A bet, the game against Orlando. The closing line and the line many people got here was a loss, Stif got it as a push and replayed the A bet on Miami. That's why.

[Wallco99]

This is Stifler's system and we are following it according to the lines he posts, I agree that sometimes the lines are off a bit but a very simple solution is to buy the points to match the system. You'll pay a little more juice if the play loses but this is a chase and in theory you won't pay any juice if the series wins, right? You just add the lost vig to the "b" bet. Why are 50% of you not following the system and then complaining that you already lost the d bet? Nobody is forcing you to do this. This is a pretty simple system to follow, almost "idiot" proof...Stifler posts the plays, you place your bets. If the line you get is -4.5 but Stifler posts -4, you buy a .5 point, if the bet loses and you lose $120 instead of $110 because of the point you bought, guess what? Your "b" bet will be $220 instead of $210. Is this that complicated or is everyone bored and likes a little drama to make the day go faster?

The other guy was right, YOU are an idiot!
Let me see....a four game chase buying points? That sound like a cheap loss.