nba chase 12/13

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 11-30-12, 01:58 PM

For paying the vig on wins...unless you bet through Joe behind the bar, your account will be deducted -110 for a 100 dollar bet (-110 odds), but when you win you will get $210 back ($100 winnings + the $110 you put up). That's what I thought Grinder was talking about. Unless you didn't mean that, Grinder!!!

**olmec** · 11-30-12, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

yes, little typo, clearly B Bet...the lost A bet was listed.

not happening the first time. Cleveland still has the open series on their road losing streak. Meanwhile they won 3 ATS on the road, which also qualifies for a new series on Cleveland.

D bets in S1 / S2 will always result in an A bet aswell on the opposite side. Taking notice to the closing lines on covers S2 Cle fade would be a D bet, i personally have a C bet, because i pushed on the A bet.

Understood? Its like i feel all the questionmarks over ur head now...

Thanks mate, i get t

**Stifler** · 11-30-12, 04:07 PM

- Toronto line updated

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto -2,5 4,85u
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento +1,5 2,31u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by olmec

Hi Stifler, I dont get this last post. In S2 bet, we played for Cle fade. OK... But on the other hand, will we play for Cle ' s winning? at he same time?

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

For the record here my lines will count. This is no covers backtest statistic thread, we are sitting in a live season, so u wont get closing lines from covers all the time. U have to live with whatever line ur getting whether its a better or a worse line. I said it a few pages before what if im getting a worse line than the closing line on covers and the closing line covers the spread while my line will lose? Is it a win just because covers line did cover the spread?

Still i will take notice that this would have been a D bet (when i backtested it later).

I still dont know if this is ecactly right. And tbh im too lazy to do the math on that. Im personally playing both games, i dont give a shit on the juice, there is just juice on losing picks and as long as we are not losing a full series we wont pay the juice.

He actually is right about skipping, or playing down. Where as you may only be paying an extra $10 in unnecessary juice if one of the plays is an (A) bet, you will be wasting considerably more if both bets are higher than (A). If this scenario was on two (C) bets, you would be throwing away $44 if you were playing $100 units, and your (C) bet was for $441. And for obvious reasons, I will not mention if they were (D) bets. LOL.
However, these wasted monies would only be relavent if a series was to lose, otherwise the wasted monies will be recovered when the bet wins.

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

What? You don't pay juice on winning picks?? Stifler, put the pipe done (and hand it to me) :-)

It adds up over a year to at least 5 or 6 units in profits (estimating here).

BUT - if it is confusing just bet both, not a duper big deal - bookies will love you. :-)

On this point, I disagree with you and agree with Stifler. It only "adds up" as long while the series is active. As soon as the series is won, that temporary wasted money is recovered. It only ends up costing you more permanently if the series was to lose. As system players, we should always play a series the cheapest way possible to attain our final goal in case such losses do happen, and that is the reason that I believe in skipping.

**Asset** · 11-30-12, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

Thank-you; I could barely read it earlier LOL.

(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

Btw people, I have a bad feeling this game is gonna go to a (B Bet). But then again, I'm a robot that just follow Stif's system

BOL to everyone

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Grinder you don't pay juice on a winning bet, only when the bet loses do you pay vig. This is what I tried to point out to you last time this was brought up, nothing extra is being put down. If the series loses you pay the vig just like any other series, if it wins you don't pay vig at all.

And like Stifler pointed out, when you bet both sides on the A bet yes one bet will lose and you will pay vig on that bet, but we chase the series. So on the B bet you bet to recover the loss including the juice. If the series wins you lose nothing, if it loses its just like every other series.

But if the series does lose, less money will be lost if some of the bets were skipped along the way and doubled up on the next bet. That is a fact. If it wins you win the same, and if it loses you lose less. For that reason alone, there is no better way

**Riceboi** · 11-30-12, 05:46 PM

Hoping for a great night. A clean sweep would be sweet, really need it now.

**Nino7** · 11-30-12, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

I still dont know if this is ecactly right. And tbh im too lazy to do the math on that. Im personally playing both games, i dont give a shit on the juice, there is just juice on losing picks and as long as we are not losing a full series we wont pay the juice.

The math are pretty simple:
Lets say you have two series starting on a team and fading that team both on A
you will bet 1,1 vs 1,1 outcome will be -0,1 (+1 -1,1)
next bet on B on the losing team will be 2,31 to win 2,1 (1+1,1 lost) if that serie end up winning you ll be up 1 + 1 = 2 units

If you skip both bet you bet 0 vs 0 outcome will be 0 (or +1 -1)
Next bet on B on losing team will be 2,2 to win 2 (1 + 1 "lost" ) if that serie end up winning you 'll be up 0 + 2 = 2 units
If that serie end up losing you saved 0,11 on B + what needed to make up on C and D.

Now lets say your betting on a team on D bet and fade this team on A bet

you will bet 10,19 vs 1,1 outcome will be +8,16 (9.26 - 1.1 ) if you win the D bet so you ll bet to win 2,1 on B,if that serie end up winning you ll be up 9.16 ( 8.16 + 1) or -9.19 (-10.19+1) if you lose the D bet

now you count it this way: 10,19 vs 1,1 = 9.09 + 1,1 vs 1,1

so you just skip both 1,1 like in the first exemple and bet 9,09 on D then if D bet wins you ll bet 2,2 to win 2 on B (if that serie end up losing you saved 0,11 + what needed to make up on C and D)
if A bet wins you lost -9.09 so you saved 0,1

Hope it's clear

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by Nino7

The math are pretty simple:
Lets say you have two series starting on a team and fading that team both on A
you will bet 1,1 vs 1,1 outcome will be -0,1 (+1 -1,1)
next bet on B on the losing team will be 2,31 to win 2,1 (1+1,1 lost) if that serie end up winning you ll be up 1 + 1 = 2 units

If you skip both bet you bet 0 vs 0 outcome will be 0 (or +1 -1)
Next bet on B on losing team will be 2,2 to win 2 (1 + 1 "lost" ) if that serie end up winning you 'll be up 0 + 2 = 2 units
If that serie end up losing you saved 0,11 on B + what needed to make up on C and D.

Now lets say your betting on a team on D bet and fade this team on A bet

you will bet 10,19 vs 1,1 outcome will be +8,16 (9.26 - 1.1 ) if you win the D bet so you ll bet to win 2,1 on B,if that serie end up winning you ll be up 9.16 ( 8.16 + 1) or -9.19 (-10.19+1) if you lose the D bet

now you count it this way: 10,19 vs 1,1 = 9.09 + 1,1 vs 1,1

so you just skip both 1,1 like in the first exemple and bet 9,09 on D then if D bet wins you ll bet 2,2 to win 2 on B (if that serie end up losing you saved 0,11 + what needed to make up on C and D)
if A bet wins you lost -9.09 so you saved 0,1

Hope it's clear

Crystal Clear!!! He approves.

**Stifler** · 11-30-12, 06:47 PM

- Cleveland line updated

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto -2,5 4,85u
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +9 1,10u
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento +1,5 2,31u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

**Nino7** · 11-30-12, 06:48 PM

Stifler whats your secret to pick 80% of the time some better lines that the closing one?

**Grinder12000** · 11-30-12, 07:37 PM

OK - the PROBLEM is this when it comes to the whole canceling team thing.

On one hand I agree with myself and you WILL lose juice WHEN YOU LOSE!!

However - how many times will you lose?? IN the last 3 years the worst is 4 times. So yea - you will lose juice 4 times.

HOWEVER - how many times will you brain cramp and add something wrong. KEEP IT SIMPLE. In this case don't make it harder then it is and the risk of losing a small amount of juice you will lose far out weighs the small amount of juice you will lose.

I bet we have this problem 3 or 4 times a week - keep it simple.

**Wallco99** · 11-30-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

OK - the PROBLEM is this when it comes to the whole canceling team thing.

On one hand I agree with myself and you WILL lose juice WHEN YOU LOSE!!

However - how many times will you lose?? IN the last 3 years the worst is 4 times. So yea - you will lose juice 4 times.

HOWEVER - how many times will you brain cramp and add something wrong. KEEP IT SIMPLE. In this case don't make it harder then it is and the risk of losing a small amount of juice you will lose far out weighs the small amount of juice you will lose.

I bet we have this problem 3 or 4 times a week - keep it simple.

Sounds to me like you've made a complete 180 in less than 3 hours. I guess never bringing it up would have been the best option.

**Asset** · 11-30-12, 09:14 PM

YES!! I was wrong LOL

**itsjhurley** · 11-30-12, 09:25 PM

Toronto game nail biter!!

**mcrisp** · 11-30-12, 09:41 PM

Lets go atlanta!

**ZigZagMan** · 11-30-12, 09:46 PM

Piss poor effort by the Hawks in the 4th. Up 9 to start, being outscored 24-9 right now. Unreal.

**msetai** · 11-30-12, 09:50 PM

wow ATL sh*t the bed, there goes my -18.45 units

--> does it count if they win ATS in OT?

also if Anderson Varejao stays healthy he will def win the rebounding title...

**mcrisp** · 11-30-12, 09:57 PM

OT please atl!

**brigade125** · 11-30-12, 10:01 PM

D bet ...on its way... time to put up the cash...

**Grinder12000** · 11-30-12, 10:14 PM

Two "D" bet losses in a week (well, for MANY of us). suck. I think this one get's an "*". Amazing how 1/2 a point can kill you a week later.

Sounds to me like you've made a complete 180 in less than 3 hours. I guess never bringing it up would have been the best option.

Yea - let things rattle around in the head a bit. Losing juice 3 or 4 times a year is not that big of deal. However I believe that 3 or 4 times is a low estimate LOL

AT LEAST CLEVELAND WON. Gotta say though - this one hurt a little. Whole lot of units on that game.

ON THE BRIGHT SIDE - everything else is winning but THE BIG ONE!! Clearing the plate tonight!

**Nino7** · 11-30-12, 10:23 PM

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees

**Stifler** · 11-30-12, 10:23 PM

i gotta have to say it: LMAO @ grizzlies ending. I will take it...

**Riceboi** · 11-30-12, 10:23 PM

wow thank goodness that 3 ball hit for the grizz cover.

**fooubar** · 11-30-12, 10:24 PM

Wow so lucky on that Memphis cover.
5 secs to go, Conley shoots a meaningless undefended 3 to avoid a turnover and makes it, yeah ;D

**brigade125** · 11-30-12, 10:24 PM

thank god for conley jr...memphis covers

**samcro1** · 11-30-12, 10:29 PM

Thank you Conley!!!!!!!!! Damn Atlanta.. no effort in the 4th..

**Grinder12000** · 11-30-12, 11:00 PM

OK - think of us Atlanta losers as the alternate Stifler* . A slightly modified universe with a loss as opposed to a push in the "A' game?

The System is 37-2 which is slightly in the black so . . . . unlike 90% of the gambling population, we're in the black.

You guys still in Stiflers main universe - good luck, at least you won't have to wait long.

**Riceboi** · 11-30-12, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

OK - think of us Atlanta losers as the alternate Stifler* . A slightly modified universe with a loss as opposed to a push in the "A' game?

The System is 37-2 which is slightly in the black so . . . . unlike 90% of the gambling population, we're in the black.

You guys still in Stiflers main universe - good luck, at least you won't have to wait long.

still a long season ahead. I think his MLB system started out in the red early on as well but made money by season's end.

**Asset** · 11-30-12, 11:03 PM

Freaking Atlanta...now I have to go and get more underwear...

How's this idea. Lets say whoever lost today including me on the Atlanta game. We chase a 5th time? Along with Stif's 4th? To be honest I'm gonna be sick if Stif, along with those who pushed wins the S2 (D Bet) fade Cle.!!

**tr4sh** · 12-01-12, 12:30 AM

No way you should chase for 5th. It's not worth it. Just take the loss and move on.

If you must, maybe place a 1-2 unit bet on it but there's no need to chase on a mostly proven system like this.

**gamewinninglv** · 12-01-12, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by Asset

Freaking Atlanta...now I have to go and get more underwear...

How's this idea. Lets say whoever lost today including me on the Atlanta game. We chase a 5th time? Along with Stif's 4th? To be honest I'm gonna be sick if Stif, along with those who pushed wins the S2 (D Bet) fade Cle.!!

You got balls Asset !!!

I cheer for you !!!

**Stifler** · 12-01-12, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto -2,5 4,85u
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +9 1,10u
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento +1,5 2,31u

records:
S1: W 15 | L 1 (-3,45 units)
S2: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
S3: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S4: W 12 | L 0 (+13,00 units)

pending:
- S2 Cle fade, D Bet on 03.12.2012
- S3 Ind fade, C Bet on 01.12.2012

________________________________________ ________________________________________ _______

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786