nba chase 12/13

[gamewinninglv]

Yea - S1 "A" have been under performing for a week or so. Slowly bringing the stress level up

Is this normal? i have no idea this is the first time i am following the system.

[Grinder12000]

S1 A wins about 57% according to Stifler. This year it's 35%.

Is it normal? Nothing is normal as this is the come out year. It's only been back testers. In THEORY the back tested numbers work. So there is no final answer yet.

[thelimit0310]

It's not really a theory, the numbers are pretty solidified. There's no difference in backtesting documented results vs real time. The only thing that could change the numbers is a larger sample size. Even then around the 10 year point the trends are essentially statistical facts until the game changes. It's just been a bad month for S1.

[Grinder12000]

There is a good size difference. If Stifler was playing ALL the teams equally there would be no difference. But because he picked teams to play because of the results the system it's still a theory. It's like back testing flipping a coin 10,000 times and having heads come up 53% of the time. By those results you would assume that heads was a favorite.

I've gone back 10 years with the teams and you have about 50 hits per team. Not nearly enough to REALLY see a pattern. You would need about 300 hits per team to be near standard deviation.

HOWEVER the total quantity is a good size and is positive when ALL are combined which is a very good thing .

Wins streaks are much better then losing streaks overall and some teams really stick out. The thing is . . .is it luck? Should we be betting on the BAD teams because they have had their share of bad luck and it all evens out (like point spreads in the NFL)? 50-1 in 10 years is great 50-3 is BAD so we are walking a very tight line.

Don't get me wrong - I'm feeling good but this is still gambling. And even I believe it's a good system (which blows my mind as I'm anti chase normally).

It's been a bad 10 days for S1.

[gamewinninglv]

Thanks for the inputs. Basically this system is as close to guarantee winning as we can get, for now. Don't use the money you can't afford to lose.

Good luck to us on Friday !!!

[daneault23]

Hey guys I had a couple questions, not sure if there is a right/wrong way to go about this. Due to bad circumstances, I've had to redeposit and got a 100% freeplay bonus. So I have about equal amounts in both my real money accounts and freeplay accounts. I'm trying to figure out the best way to allocate the plays between both accounts to one doesn't get so lopsided. I was thinking maybe saving the freeplay account money for just C and D bets, or maybe there is a better way?

I know in general straight bets aren't the optimal way to use freeplays, but this is what I'm working with at the moment.

[Stifler]

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto- waiting...
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn - no line up yet

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento - waiting...


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[Stifler]

Hey guys I had a couple questions, not sure if there is a right/wrong way to go about this. Due to bad circumstances, I've had to redeposit and got a 100% freeplay bonus. So I have about equal amounts in both my real money accounts and freeplay accounts. I'm trying to figure out the best way to allocate the plays between both accounts to one doesn't get so lopsided. I was thinking maybe saving the freeplay account money for just C and D bets, or maybe there is a better way?

I know in general straight bets aren't the optimal way to use freeplays, but this is what I'm working with at the moment.

Wait for a good sport and place a straight bet for ur freeplay. C and D bets arent free money...

[baldur]

i dont understand your last picks, do you think of bet on memphis -11,5 and oklahoma -9, etc?

[msetai]

^ Yes the wagers are on teams in BOLD

[baldur]

teams in bold or black?

[msetai]

^ bold + black

[baldur]

ok, thanks my friend.

[olmec]

30.11.2012



S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...

Hi Stifler, I dont get this last post. In S2 bet, we played for Cle fade. OK... But on the other hand, will we play for Cle ' s winning? at he same time?

[willbills]

30.11.2012

S3

(A Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento - waiting...

Stiff think you mean B Bet on this one. Pacers won the game against the Lakers by 2.

[olmec]

30.11.2012


S3

(A Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento - waiting...

Another question; This is the second time Ind fade and it should be B Bet. Am i right?

[Stifler]

Another question; This is the second time Ind fade and it should be B Bet. Am i right?

yes, little typo, clearly B Bet...the lost A bet was listed.

Hi Stifler, I dont get this last post. In S2 bet, we played for Cle fade. OK... But on the other hand, will we play for Cle ' s winning? at he same time?

not happening the first time. Cleveland still has the open series on their road losing streak. Meanwhile they won 3 ATS on the road, which also qualifies for a new series on Cleveland.

D bets in S1 / S2 will always result in an A bet aswell on the opposite side. Taking notice to the closing lines on covers S2 Cle fade would be a D bet, i personally have a C bet, because i pushed on the A bet.

Understood? Its like i feel all the questionmarks over ur head now...

[msetai]

^ Stifler will your thread here reflect covers (S2 Cle fade, D bet?) or your lines (S2 Cle fade, C bet?)

Thanks!

[Grinder12000]

Asset will need to buy a 4 pack of underwear tonight!

[Grinder12000]

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...

BEST way to play this is to subtract the "A" bet from what you would put on the "C" bet and don't play the "A" bet at all. By doing this you are not paying the vig twice. If the "A' bet wins play it as your normal "B" bet next time.

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u

For some of us lucky ones that did not get the PUSH this is a "D" bet. YEE HAW!!

Think of this not as a "D" bet. Think of it as AN OPPORTUNITY!!

[msetai]

^ so you are saying Atlanta (4.85-1.1 = 3.75u) and Cleveland 1.1u?

or for the D bet people Atlanta (10.91-1.1 = 9.81) and Cleveland 1.1u?

[samcro1]

Does the "waiting" mean you're waiting for the spread or you're waiting for them to lose, so the B bets become C bets, and the C bets become D bets?

[msetai]

^ better spread

[Stifler]

^ Stifler will your thread here reflect covers (S2 Cle fade, D bet?) or your lines (S2 Cle fade, C bet?)

Thanks!

For the record here my lines will count. This is no covers backtest statistic thread, we are sitting in a live season, so u wont get closing lines from covers all the time. U have to live with whatever line ur getting whether its a better or a worse line. I said it a few pages before what if im getting a worse line than the closing line on covers and the closing line covers the spread while my line will lose? Is it a win just because covers line did cover the spread?

Still i will take notice that this would have been a D bet (when i backtested it later).

BEST way to play this is to subtract the "A" bet from what you would put on the "C" bet and don't play the "A" bet at all. By doing this you are not paying the vig twice. If the "A' bet wins play it as your normal "B" bet next time.

I still dont know if this is ecactly right. And tbh im too lazy to do the math on that. Im personally playing both games, i dont give a shit on the juice, there is just juice on losing picks and as long as we are not losing a full series we wont pay the juice.

[kosti]

Here's another issue with the closing line for keeping stats. The guys that had Orlando -4.5 against cleveland (and lost) should also be playing Orlando S2 Fade 'A' bet since they've lost three in a row at home and are playing at home today.

Although I can get better lines at times, I'm keeping stats using closing odds and starting series' accordingly using the closing lines since that is what was backtested. This is the first time this has happened because of the push, but may come up again.

[Stifler]

Here's another issue with the closing line for keeping stats. The guys that had Orlando -4.5 against cleveland (and lost) should also be playing Orlando S2 Fade 'A' bet since they've lost three in a row at home and are playing at home today.

Although I can get better lines at times, I'm keeping stats using closing odds and starting series' accordingly using the closing lines since that is what was backtested. This is the first time this has happened because of the push, but may come up again.

we all should play it...missed it. Updated todays games.

[Stifler]

- Brooklyn line updated.

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto- waiting...
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento - waiting...

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[Grinder12000]

there is just juice on losing picks and as long as we are not losing a full series we wont pay the juice.

What? You don't pay juice on winning picks?? Stifler, put the pipe done (and hand it to me) :-)

It adds up over a year to at least 5 or 6 units in profits (estimating here).

BUT - if it is confusing just bet both, not a duper big deal - bookies will love you. :-)

[Stifler]

What? You don't pay juice on winning picks?? Stifler, put the pipe done (and hand it to me) :-)

It adds up over a year to at least 5 or 6 units in profits (estimating here).

BUT - if it is confusing just bet both, not a duper big deal - bookies will love you. :-)

E.g. a moneyline of -220: risk 2,20u to win 1u. Ur just paying the juice if the bet is going to lose. Every win will result in +1unit.

Show me why im losing extra money if i play both sides? This may just happen if we are having a losing series overall. Winning both series will end in +2units. Ur probably just talking about single betting both sides, thats different ofc. Single betting both sides (-110 odds) to win 1 unit will end in -0,10 units overall, but we are chasing here.

other example:

ur going to play -110 odds over a full season and ur playing to win 1unit (only single bets). Ur going 100-0 on this season adding +100 units. Ur going to pay the juice on winning bets here? Where?

[thelimit0310]

Grinder you don't pay juice on a winning bet, only when the bet loses do you pay vig. This is what I tried to point out to you last time this was brought up, nothing extra is being put down. If the series loses you pay the vig just like any other series, if it wins you don't pay vig at all.

And like Stifler pointed out, when you bet both sides on the A bet yes one bet will lose and you will pay vig on that bet, but we chase the series. So on the B bet you bet to recover the loss including the juice. If the series wins you lose nothing, if it loses its just like every other series.

[Grinder12000]

You are right - I stand corrected. Yea - you WILL lose it a few times but on something like this - IF, the numbers hold up . . . I stand corrected.

HEY - I'm never afraid to be proven wrong. I was still thinking old school - non-chase.

And interesting nuance to be sure.

Can I still be handed the pipe? or did I forfeit being passed too.

[Stifler]

- Sacramento line updated

30.11.2012

S1

(C Bet) Det fade: Portland +1 1,10u | Phoenix +3,5 2,31u | Memphis -11 4,85u
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto +6 1,10u | Toronto+10,5 2,31 | Toronto- waiting...
(B Bet) Utah fade: New orleans +3 1,10u | OKC -9 2,31u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u | Memphis -12,5 2,31u | Atlanta -8,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Orl fade: Brooklyn -3,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Ind fade: Lakers -7,5 1,10u | Sacramento +1,5 2,31u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[thelimit0310]

[Asset]

lmfao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[TheJettylife]

Wow big day Lets go STIFFFF!! Love it!