nba chase 12/13

**Spoon19xx** · 02-03-13, 03:58 PM

Lol @ the trash system

**Stifler** · 02-03-13, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Bos: Boston +1 1,10u

S2

(D Bet) Bos fade: Miami -3,5 1,10u | Sacramento +7 2,31u | Orlando +9,5 4,85u | Clippers ml 10,19u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston +1 1,10u

records:
S1: W 47 | L 2 (+10,10 units)
S2: W 25 | L 2 (-11,90 units)
S3: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S4: W 40 | L 1 (+23,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade

pending:

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Asset** · 02-03-13, 04:00 PM

Dam, I might just jump off this boat ride now. Either that or I'll just play Stif's S3. S3 is the only system play that actually makes any sense to me, but then again, the way I've been thinking wasn't all there lately LOL.

Now I'm praying for the SUPERBOWL!!

**John Deere** · 02-03-13, 04:02 PM

Heater is coming !

**Grinder12000** · 02-03-13, 04:21 PM

Even though the Clippers lost - at least Boston won - look at the bright side!!

As of 2/02/13 - no worries!

**Wallco99** · 02-03-13, 04:27 PM

Boston Celtics - The unbetable, unfadeable enigma!

**dogs1972** · 02-03-13, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by Riceboi

The system is up a decent amount the last time I checked. If you're down then you're not playing it right.

Yeah. That's probably it. I keep betting these D's and when I lose they take my money. I gotta figure this out.

**Grinder12000** · 02-03-13, 04:38 PM

What was missing today was Wallco's Hockey and any other NBA games to lessen the blow.

**Asset** · 02-03-13, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by grinder12000

what was missing today was wallco's hockey and any other nba games to lesson the blow.

superbowl?

**Riceboi** · 02-03-13, 04:45 PM

The way I see it is this is only the 1st half of the season, stif's system could and should (taking into account the avg past season's backtests) go on a tear and make 70-80 units for the 2nd half. I have a strong feeling the 2nd half will be more profitable.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-03-13, 05:24 PM

QUICK UPDATE
FLAT BETTING(B,C,D): +$1,390
Chasing ABCD: +$3,565

I wanna run a labby test, but time consuming, maybe i'll post some thing next week on that.

Even though its a bad week, with JM and this system combined I am still up 4 units this week. very few personal plays as well. I think I actually lost overall on personal plays who would be up more. Only play JM system to win 1 unit starting from B though. Try to look at it week to week. Other wise day to day is too stressful some times.

For those following this system and JM, your still up right?

**Grinder12000** · 02-03-13, 05:39 PM

JM. Kelly betting is a bit involved but basically if you are betting, say 1% of your bank per play, you adjust your unit size each day. If the system is +EV you make more and more as the season goes on as the size of each unit increases.

**staf** · 02-03-13, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

QUICK UPDATE
FLAT BETTING(B,C,D): +$1,390
Chasing ABCD: +$3,565

I wanna run a labby test, but time consuming, maybe i'll post some thing next week on that.

Even though its a bad week, with JM and this system combined I am still up 4 units this week. very few personal plays as well. I think I actually lost overall on personal plays who would be up more. Only play JM system to win 1 unit starting from B though. Try to look at it week to week. Other wise day to day is too stressful some times.

For those following this system and JM, your still up right?

Are you counting these 5 games as 2 unit bets, since there were multiple B, C, or D picks on them:
11-19-12 Charlotte W 2 B's
12-19-12 Boston W 2 B's
12-29-12 Indiana W 2 B's
1-26-13 Cleveland W B and D
1-30-13 Toronto W B and C

**Grinder12000** · 02-03-13, 06:57 PM

If they are from my system, yes.

**noveggies** · 02-03-13, 07:06 PM

Did that clear everything out? Lost a D and won two As, so back with only As now?

edit: and I'm up slightly less than two from when I jumped in (which was only like 2 weeks so far, which included 2 D losses, so that seems not too bad at all).

**Grinder12000** · 02-03-13, 10:56 PM

Did that clear everything out?

Yea - it's like the official start of the 2nd half. No hangers, no games! too weird. it's like a fresh start.

**gamewinninglv** · 02-03-13, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Yea - it's like the official start of the 2nd half. No hangers, no games! too weird. it's like a fresh start.

Looking forward to the 2nd half of the season !!!!

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-03-13, 11:38 PM

Fresh start indeed. Ruined all my profit and ended up losing 6 units after being up on the week. Discipline from here on out. Will be playing 3 systems running labby lines from here on out. I would love to complain about how SF cost me a lot tonight and how Bal also cost me a lot with all the live wagers I made, but that is all in the past and hanging onto losses does no good. Focus on what I can do moving forward to start stacking the cash again. Tomorrow is official fresh start for me once more. I feel super determined, to at least earn grocery money and some going out money for this next month.

Lets Start Stacking Cash Gentlemen.

Good night.

**Stifler** · 02-04-13, 05:43 AM

04.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Ind: Indiana - no line up atm
(A Bet) Chic: Chicago - no line up atm
(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Sac fade: Utah - 8 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Grinder12000** · 02-04-13, 07:23 AM

The very last thing I would ever bet on is the Super Bowl. Total crap shoot. Might as will put money on the coin flip. Once any regular season is over in any sport it's time to move on.

I'm starting a Jai alai league chase. Who's in.

2nd half of NBA - BRING IT!!!!

**OFS** · 02-04-13, 09:32 AM

Can someone help me out with the proper strategy going into tonight's Chicago and Indiana bets? Thanks in advance.

**vigster** · 02-04-13, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

The very last thing I would ever bet on is the Super Bowl. Total crap shoot. Might as will put money on the coin flip. Once any regular season is over in any sport it's time to move on.

I'm starting a Jai alai league chase. Who's in.

2nd half of NBA - BRING IT!!!!

Post em!

**njb5572** · 02-04-13, 09:59 AM

I have been applying a simple modified version of the kelly criterion with my unit size and despite an abysmal first half of the NBA, I am still up slightly more than I would have been had kept my unit size constant.

**Grinder12000** · 02-04-13, 10:48 AM

I've been trying to figure out if I can apply the kelly criterion to this chase but the games come in such big clumps!

the kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. In most gambling scenarios, and some investing scenarios under some simplifying assumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run.

Basically proportional betting.

HOWEVER - the Proebsting's paradox argues that Kelly betting can lead to ruin especially in sports betting because "Some sports bettors try to make income from anticipating line changes rather than predicting event outcomes."

But I do not agree.

**Teamprofit101** · 02-04-13, 10:51 AM

You guys should seriously consider the labby approach on ll 4 systems..... D bets don't are not hurting as much because i know that loss is coming back to me. Plus the D bets are not as expensive since the money is spread out between losses. I mean it takes a little longer to get your money back but it's worth it.

**Stifler** · 02-04-13, 11:03 AM

- NYK line updated.

04.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Ind: Indiana - no line up atm
(A Bet) Chic: Chicago - no line up atm
(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks -10 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Utah - 8 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**samrock67** · 02-04-13, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by OFS

Can someone help me out with the proper strategy going into tonight's Chicago and Indiana bets? Thanks in advance.

1) Bet on both because your goal is to win 1 unit per series
2) Bet on neither and continue as normal with whichever series loses tonight.

**Want2Win** · 02-04-13, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

I've been trying to figure out if I can apply the kelly criterion to this chase but the games come in such big clumps!

Basically proportional betting.

HOWEVER - the Proebsting's paradox argues that Kelly betting can lead to ruin especially in sports betting because "Some sports bettors try to make income from anticipating line changes rather than predicting event outcomes."

But I do not agree.

I use Kelly for all my wagering. I keep a separate bankroll for each type of wagering I do, Sports wagering, casino wagering, etc. I will recalculate my unit size every month, so I don't have a problem using Kelly in a chase system. Kelly uses the idea of compound interest I like to call it and I have been using it for the last 20 years. My unit size and bankroll have grown because of it

**OFS** · 02-04-13, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by samrock67

1) Bet on both because your goal is to win 1 unit per series
2) Bet on neither and continue as normal with whichever series loses tonight.

Ok thanks. Kept seeing conflicting advice before, but I feel confident that whichever loses tonight will still win their respective series.

**Nino7** · 02-04-13, 11:37 AM

What's kelly? anyone?

**CrazyCarl** · 02-04-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Nino7

What's kelly? anyone?

Some of the math guys use it to determine how much to bet. Just google "site:forum.sbrforum.com kelly criterion" and you'll find lots of good threads on it.

I don't really recommend it for systems that strongly (certainly could work though), but betting half kelly on regular bets instead of flat betting should be better. Full Kelly I think is a bit crazy, even for me!

**MARCUS** · 02-04-13, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Want2Win

I use Kelly for all my wagering. I keep a separate bankroll for each type of wagering I do, Sports wagering, casino wagering, etc. I will recalculate my unit size every month, so I don't have a problem using Kelly in a chase system. Kelly uses the idea of compound interest I like to call it and I have been using it for the last 20 years. My unit size and bankroll have grown because of it

**Stifler** · 02-04-13, 11:56 AM

- Bulls & Pacers line updated.

04.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Ind: Indiana -5 1,10u
(A Bet) Chic: Chicago +5 1,10u
(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks -10 1,10u
(A Bet) Sac fade: Utah - 8 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**thelimit0310** · 02-04-13, 12:11 PM

Maybe I'm missing something on this Kelly stuff but it seems like an amateur move. You start at $20 units, win and adjust until your unit size is $30, then hit a loss. So now you suffered a bigger loss than if you stayed at 20, and after the loss you readjust to a lower amount so it on top of a larger loss your recovery is prolonged?

Also JMD , not sure if you mentioned this before when first mentioning your labby stuff, your imitating Solomans method of half game betting correct? Has this worked in the past? I remember following his thread a year or two ago and his system performed great until a chase loss killed the rolls, makes me wonder if starting from bet B or labbying would have cut down on this and allowed for more profit. Very profitable system if you can shorten the losses from the 1 or 2 series losses that happen

**thelimit0310** · 02-04-13, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

The very last thing I would ever bet on is the Super Bowl. Total crap shoot. Might as will put money on the coin flip.

Funny I'm almost the opposite in my thinking here. I think most superbowls are easy to call. Yesterday's superbowl was one of the easy ones with Ravens +4, the books almost seemed unprepared. Though yes sometimes it isn't worth it.