nba chase 12/13

[J.M. Disciple]

Flat betting $100 (-105)

I went back through out the season to compile a list of all b-c-d bets this season. I already knew the total from grinders number, but wanted to make a graph to see the variance in flat betting with this system. Anyways, here is a graph and excel file of all the plays up to date (not including A bets).

Enjoy

PS
I couldn't get the graph to show the dates correctly, but looks accurate with the running total. I probably need to highlight just the dates instead of entire A column. I am sure one of you can fix it.

PPS
record is 57-41 (58.16%) running below average this season. Looking for upcoming weeks to hit a small heater.

[laca07]

Out of curiosity I adjusted the juice to -110 and it reduced the current profit from $1395 to $1190 (14.6%). As much as I love to play reduced juice, sometimes it just doesn't work out that way for me at least.

Either way, I appreciate seeing a different approach. Thanks!

[Stifler]

01.02.2013

S2

(C Bet) Bos fade: Miami -3,5 1,10u | Sacramento +7 2,31u | Orlando +9,5 4,85u

S4

(B Bet) Mia fade: Brooklyn +2 1,10u | Indiana +2 2,31u

records:
S1: W 46 | L 2 (+ 9,10 units)
S2: W 23 | L 1 (+ 4,55 units)
S3: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S4: W 40 | L 1 (+23,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade

pending:
- S2 Cle, B Bet on 02.02.2013
- S2 Bos fade, D Bet on 03.02.2013



________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[noveggies]

CLE is +10.5 on BV, seems like that will go down, so I grabbed that.

Reverse calculating out the numbers from stifler and JM it looks like for the season
Abets are 65-62
Bbets are 36-26
Cbets 17-9
Dbets are 5-4

This year. I"m trying to comb through and figure this out, but I'm quitting for now. Trying to see the A, B, C, D records from the previous seasons or the backtested seasons? If anyone has, I will appreciate it!

[Stifler]

02.02.2013

S2

(B Bet) Cle: Cleveland +1,5 1,10u | Cleveland +10 2,31u


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[o2matic]

Thanks for the awesome S4 win Stif! i can now buy a car! HAHA

[J.M. Disciple]

Wish bookies did a month to month basis instead of week to week. Would never have to pay with this system.

[DustyDiamond]

Orlando sucks so bad

[Asset]

Orlando sucks so bad

That's why, TODAY is the day I'm gonna f*ckin FADE their crap. They(Orlando) better f*ck up @ the 4th which I'd noticed they been doing. This games seems too perfect LOL. Let's go Milwaukee

[J.M. Disciple]

jm is on WAS today for their C bet. spread is moving around from +13 down to 12.5 now back up to 13. Cle is at 10.5 for my bookie. sense public is on sas and okc, I am going to wait a couple hours and grab +11 and +13.5.... Eventually get there im pretty sure.

[Riceboi]

That's why, TODAY is the day I'm gonna f*ckin FADE their crap. They(Orlando) better f*ck up @ the 4th which I'd noticed they been doing. This games seems too perfect LOL. Let's go Milwaukee

you should fade the magic every half from here on out, they are bound to screw a quarter up in any given game.

example: tonight bet bucks -6 first half, if magic covers double up on bucks for 2nd half. I doubt magic can cover more than 2-3 halves in a row.

that's what i'm going to do.

[Asset]

you should fade the magic every half from here on out, they are bound to screw a quarter up in any given game.

example: tonight bet bucks -6 first half, if magic covers double up on bucks for 2nd half. I doubt magic can cover more than 2-3 halves in a row.

that's what i'm going to do.

This sounds f*cking great. One question thou, will they(bookie) offer me the second half? Atm I don't see the second half...

[Grinder12000]

Hey - J.M. Disciple - ever think about Kelly Betting your BCD Flat betting scheme? Slowly raising what one unit is?

[Grinder12000]

tonight bet bucks -6 first half, if magic covers double up on bucks for 2nd half.

Being a Bucks fan they are finally coming down from there new coach high! Orlando covers sadly. Just shootin from the hip here but it feels right for the freaking Magic.

[Riceboi]

This sounds f*cking great. One question thou, will they(bookie) offer me the second half? Atm I don't see the second half...

well not sure about bookie but on most online books they offer the 2nd half line after the first half is over. so you do have to be available after the first half to make the 2nd half bet.

Being a Bucks fan they are finally coming down from there new coach high! Orlando covers sadly. Just shootin from the hip here but it feels right for the freaking Magic.

well you can skip a match up if you don't like it, but it was just tonight's example.

[Asset]

Being a Bucks fan they are finally coming down from there new coach high! Orlando covers sadly. Just shootin from the hip here but it feels right for the freaking Magic.

Well thanks for the heads up my friend, but I don't think this crappy team is gonna cover tonight. The only bad thing I see for this game so far is the Bucks are COMING home

well not sure about bookie but on most online books they offer the 2nd half line after the first half is over. so you do have to be available after the first half to make the 2nd half bet.



well you can skip a match up if you don't like it, but it was just tonight's example.

Thanks for the info, I might only bet the second half. I'm fading them for sure thou. While I was watching their past games they seem to keep up UNTIL the 3rd and mainly the 4th. But I know Orl crap is gonna crap out @ the 4th. They all tired and washed up!!

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey - J.M. Disciple - ever think about Kelly Betting your BCD Flat betting scheme? Slowly raising what one unit is?

I heard of kelly betting before in someones MLB thread last season, but dont quite remember it. Definitely interested in slowly increasing my unit size though. Its a little difficult when don't really know how each week is going to turn out... some weeks lost 4 units, some win 4 units.... i just dont want to increase unit size than after a really terrible week right after.

I am more planning on increasing unit size after a losing week. So say I am betting $100 a game (flat), if I lose say $200 on the week, next week just bet $120 a game or some thing.

[MarcoScutaro19]

Well thanks for the heads up my friend, but I don't think this crappy team is gonna cover tonight. The only bad thing I see for this game so far is the Bucks are COMING home



Thanks for the info, I might only bet the second half. I'm fading them for sure thou. While I was watching their past games they seem to keep up UNTIL the 3rd and mainly the 4th. But I know Orl crap is gonna crap out @ the 4th. They all tired and washed up!!

Orlando is not a Stifler plat tonite is it? Or are you guys just trying to get some $$ back after their crappy performances. I was thinking before of fading them in 4th Q. they are +2 on 5dimes for 4th Q.

[Grinder12000]

Not a game. I would not go near that game.

[J.M. Disciple]

For gamblers who love action and canfollow the games through out the day this is for you! I picked upthis strategy from Solaman's thread. Its a “simple” strategy onceyou have some experience using it. This labby strategy can be appliedto many systems for those who do not have patience waiting for B, C,or D to arrive and want to make your money back that same day. Forthose of you who already understand the labby strategy (laboucheresystem), this will be simple to understand.


Labouchere system is a system which isalso known as a cancellation system. The system is simple; you startwith four (4) numbers on a line (10-10-10-10) and you bet to crossoff two numbers for your bet. Usually you want to cross off the firstand last number on your line. If you lose your bet you add your risk(amount lost) to the end of the line. If you were playing with (-110odds) you would bet $22 to win $20 on your first bet. If you lostthis bet your new line would now be (10-10-10-10-22). In a four tierchase your next bet (B) would be to win $32 (First and last number onyour line). On bet (B) you risk $35.20 to win $32. If this wagerloses, you now wait for bet C. After bet (B) lost your evaluate yournew line. Your new labby now is now (10-10-10-10-22-35.20). On bet Cyou wager $49.72 to win $45.20 (first and last number on your labbyline). If bet C wins you cross off first and last number on yourlabby line. Your new line is now (X-10-10-10-22-X) and the series isover. The labby strategy is designed for systems that hit 50% atleast and odds are close (+100). Because of the cross two numberswhen you win and add one number when you lose, you only need to win33.67% of the time to show a profit. However, bankroll plays a majorpart in this.


Now that you understand the labby, itbrings me to my next critical point of single line averaging. Usingthe example above of Lose, Lose, Win; I will explain single lineaveraging. You start with the same labby line (10-10-10-10). Bet oneyou lost ($22). Your new line is (10-10-10-10-22). With single lineaveraging you take the total money in play ($62) and divide it by thetotal numbers on your line (5). With single line averaging your newline is now (12.4 – 12.4 – 12.4 – 12.4 – 12.4). Note beforewhen you lost your (A) bet, your (B) wager was $32. This time becauseof single line averaging your (B) wager is now to win $24.80.Continuing with the example, once your B wager loses ($27.28 to win$24.80) you add it to the end of your line (12.4 – 12.4 – 12.4 –12.4 – 12.4 – 27.28) and use single line averaging once more.Your new line becomes (14.88 – 14.88 - 14.88 – 14.88 - 14.88 –14.88). Your C wager is now to win ($29.76). The labby strategy isdesigned to keep your wagers small and recover losses.


Bankroll management. Some people thinkthe labby is invincible and there is no way possible for you to lose.This is a huge fallacy which leads many people to lose theirbankrolls. When I first started using the labby a couple seasons ago,I had these same thoughts. I figured any system that hit 50% I couldmake a profit. I thought why not play baccarat? After all it does hitvery close to 50%. I had $50 casino bonus on betus so I thought Iwould give it a try using a $1 unit size. I started off with .5 - .5- .5 -.5 on my labby line and quickly built the $50 into just over$1,500 in two days. Eventually the AI caught on and I ended up losing$1,200 back. The moral of the story is not that I was still up money,but even though baccarat hit 50%, there were still bad enoughstretches where I lost $1,200 units back. With sports betting though,there is no AI where you will hit a 33% run. Systems do still havebad runs though, so bankroll management is crucial. I stronglyadvocate only starting with 2% on your labby line. If your bankrollis $2,000 start with (10-10-10-10). In the john morrison thread a fewpages back I have a graph showing the variance of using a labby. Thelabby strategy is a bit different, but the variance is similar.


Onto the labby strategy which I willbegin applying today using Stifler's system. I will be betting theseries in terms of first half and second half. Yesterday we had twogames on ORL and on IND. Using a labby strategy which requires you tobet either first half or second half, you will need to run multiplelines. In solaman's thread there is more detailed examples of this.For now I will share a quick example and answer any questions you mayhave after.


02/01/2013
ORL) 10-10-10-10
IND) 10-10-10-10


First half ORL (+5) Lose
ORL) 10-10-10-10-22
First half IND (+1.5) Win
IND) X-10-10-X.


2ND HALF ORL (+1.5) Lose.
ORL) 10-10-10-10-22-35.20.


2/2/2013 (TODAY)
We have one bet today on CLE. The Indyline I basically delete since there are only two numbers on the lineand series is over. I continue to use ORL's line the next day.


FIRST HALF CLE (+6.5) ($49.72 TO WIN$45.20)
CLE)10-10-10-10-22-35.20


If cle wins first half your new line is(x-10-10-10-22-x). I will continue to use this line tomorrow.Tomorrow if we have two bets it is up to you to decide which gamegets a fresh starting labby line. For example if we have MIA and SAStomorrow. Maybe SAS will get (10-10-10-22) where CLE left off and MIAwill get fresh line (10-10-10-10).


If you are still confused I suggestchecking out solaman's thread before asking any questions. Here isthe link.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1436705-nba-road-system-2011-12-a-p44.html

[abzflabz]

Whan asset fades orlando they will win lol

[CrazyCarl]

your units might be too high.
maybe you thought it would be mostly A and B bets. maybe you didnt expect so many Cs and Ds. I sure didnt
it might be worth rethinking your unit size.
be careful with your unit size

Early on in this thread when someone asked about unit size, I said 1% or even better .5% would be safe unless if re-depositing is an option to replenish it, and I got laughed off as way too conservative. So, I haven't mentioned it since.

[Mr.Bushido]

change Waiters.
crazy turn over mashine.

[Mr.Bushido]

Speights is beast!

[illisdre]

Cleveland with 39 points in the 4th quarter.
what a team. I almost had em on ML.

[J.M. Disciple]

Just throwing my strategy out there with ORL as an example. For those of you who got +10 today they still might not cover because of 2nd half run by MIL. If you were labbying at least you would cover one of the halfs and make small profit or vice versa on fading. Personally I didn't have any money on ORL today or MIL. I know some of you are on orl others on mil.. cant really root for either team at this time.

Best of Luck to all.

Great Cash with CLE tonight. Covered both halves.

[o2matic]

Big cash in CLE game today. Thanks Stif!

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone know the plays tomorrow? Usually i wait for stiff, but games start at 10 and want to sleep in.

Also thoughts on superbowl? I might labby 49 first half and 2nd half.

[miczz14]

d bet bos fade

[J.M. Disciple]

LOL @ are there any plays tomorrow! Huge D bet against Boston. Idk how i didn't remember that after orl cost me so many units this week.

[licker9]

anybody have the link to last yr and other seasons for stiflers plays? a spreadsheet of sorts would be great!
I think I may have found something interesting, however I want to see prior seasons to be sure it is good.

Side note I think Orl should have been filtered at the beginning of the season. All stats from prior seasons should have been null since D.H. was traded for cr@p.

[illisdre]

anybody have the link to last yr and other seasons for stiflers plays? a spreadsheet of sorts would be great!
I think I may have found something interesting, however I want to see prior seasons to be sure it is good.

Side note I think Orl should have been filtered at the beginning of the season. All stats from prior seasons should have been null since D.H. was traded for cr@p.

not sure what your finding. but this is the first actuall season of play for stiflers Nba system. the previous years are a validation back test. you can find the summary first page. but I dont think anyone has a spreadsheet of past game results.

[Stifler]

02.02.2013

S2

(B Bet) Cle: Cleveland +1,5 1,10u | Cleveland +10 2,31u

records:
S1: W 46 | L 2 (+ 9,10 units)
S2: W 24 | L 1 (+ 5,55 units)
S3: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S4: W 40 | L 1 (+23,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade

pending:
- S2 Bos fade, D Bet on 03.02.2013



________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[knugen]

On the clippers ML. Nice with an early game for us in europe . BOL

[Stifler]

03.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Bos: Boston - waiting on line movement

S2

(D Bet) Bos fade: Miami -3,5 1,10u | Sacramento +7 2,31u | Orlando +9,5 4,85u | Clippers ml 10,19u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston - waiting on line movement


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586