The NBA with John Ryan 2012-2013

[alexknyc]

November 19

Washington +3 LOSS
Memphis/Denver UNDER 196.5 WIN

Season: 10-12-1 -3.15 units

[John Ryan]

Tuesday Plays; Brooklyn + 6 over the Lakers

[alexknyc]

November 20

Brooklyn +6 WIN

Season: 11-12-1 -2.15 units

[John Ryan]

Two Plays for tonight and a ML Parlay looking for the two dogs to win SU.

Sacramento + 6 -110 and Boston + 1 1/2 -110

Money line parlay with same amount as played on any NBA game. Boston + 105 and Kings +200.

BOL and Happy Thanksgiving!

Alex, let's keep a separate category for these parlays

[alexknyc]

November 21

Sacramento +6 WIN
Boston +1.5 LOSS
ML Parlay Boston and Sacramento LOSS

Record: 12-13-1 -2.25 units
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit

Season: 12-14-1 -3.25 units

[John Ryan]

Indiana +4 over the Spurs.

The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2006. Play on home dogs after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game and in a matchup of non-conference teams. After starting out 3-8 on the season, the Pacers have righted the ship and won two games with sound fundamental team basketball. They are a strong rebounding team and had 61 boards with just eight turnovers in their 115-107 win over the Hornets. The Pacers rank second in the NBA averaging 57.5 rebounds per game and this will minimize the Spurs second chance scoring opportunities. The Spurs rank 27th in the NBA averaging just 48.3 RPG and the Pacers have an advantage on the offensive glass in this matchup, which will lead to a heavy edge in second chance scoring opportunities. Pacers rank 6th averaging 13.2 offensive boards per game. Take the Pacers.

[John Ryan]

ok. Sunday, I like the Philadelphia 76ers - 3 1/2 -110 over Phoenix

[alexknyc]

November 23

Indiana +4 LOSS

November 25

Philadelphia -3.5 LOSS

Plays: 12-15-1 -4.45 units
Parlays: 0-1 -1 unit

Season: 12-16-1 -5.45 units

[John Ryan]

Play OVER San Antonio-Washington in NBA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 195 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 82-37 mark for 69% winner since 2006. Play over with all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days with the game taking place in November. This system has already gone 14-7 ATS and 56% of all plays made have gone over the total by seven or more points. Washington is projected to shoot between 43 and 47% from the field. In past games, the Spurs are 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) in road games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are projected to have between 13 and 17 turnovers in this game. Spurs are 28-15 OVER in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons and are 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Washington is not an agressive to-the-hoop type of team and as a result they don’t get a high number of free throw opportunities. Spurs are 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) in road games versus low foul drawing teams that are attempting <=24 free throws per game over the last two seasons. Take the OVER.

[John Ryan]

ok NBA for Tuesday:

Philadelphia 76ers -3 -105 over Dallas. One of the many projections from the sim show that Dallas will have three to five more turnovers than the 76ers. In past games, Dallas is just 2-11 ATS when they commit 3 to 5 more turnovers than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

[alexknyc]

November 26

San Antonio/Washington OVER 194 WIN

November 27

Philadelphia -3 (-105) LOSS

Plays: 13-16-1 -4.50 units
Parlays: 0-1 -1 unit

Season 13-17-1 -5.50 units

[John Ryan]

Pllay OVER Portland-Washington in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 195 points will be scored in this game. Arguably the worst offensive team in Washington matched up against the worst defensive team in Portland. Washington ranks 30th averaging just 90 PPG and Portland ranks 30th allowing 104.1 PPG. Despite scoring an anemic 90 PPG, Washington can run the fast break where they rank 15th in the NBA averaging 13.2 PPG on the break. Portland is an excellent perimeter shooting team and I fully expect them to have wide open looks. They are averaging 8.4 3-point FG made per game good for fourth best in the NBA. This will force Washington to spread their defense to cover the perimeter, which will then open up the paint area for some easy looks and scores. Washington is winless, but they do have a solid shot at a win tonight, but they will have to make the game a track meet whenever possible. I don’t like Washington, but do like them to create a play that will soar over the posted total. I like the OVER.

[alexknyc]

November 28

Portland/Washington OVER 193 LOSS

Plays: 13-17-1 -5.60 units
Parlays: 0-1 -1 unit

Season: 13-18-1 -6.60 units

[John Ryan]

Play on the Miami Heat as they take on the Spurs in NBA action to be aired by TNT starting at The simulator shows a high probability that the Heat will win this game by seven or more points. The Heat are in an excellent spot for an easy double digit win. The sim shows that they will shoot between 48 to 51% of their shots and wills core between 99 and 104 points. The Heat are 173-81 ATS (+83.9 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game since 1996; 157-75 ATS (+74.5 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game since 1996. Miami is 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

[thachosen1]

JR what you think now??? Spurs playing mind game slam on spurs first half and whole game, they resting their starters to force people stay away from them but their bench still good and heat will let down due to playing spurs bench warmer.. Spurs first have and whole game are the best bets!!! what you guys think spreads is -12 now wow? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...parker-vs-heat

[alexknyc]

November 29

Miami -12 LOSS

Plays: 13-18-1 -6.70 units
Parlays: 0-1 -1 unit

Season: 13-19-1 -7.70 units

[njcardshark]

Wouldnt the Miami game be considered a push? When John released his play on Miami the line was still Miami -5 as evident by his analysis on the game. The line wasnt adjusted to Miami -11.5 until about 2hours later. Im pretty sure this would have changed his analysis of the game

[usfunca]

Wouldnt the Miami game be considered a push? When John released his play on Miami the line was still Miami -5 as evident by his analysis on the game. The line wasnt adjusted to Miami -11.5 until about 2hours later. Im pretty sure this would have changed his analysis of the game

If he's not going to release a line with his pick, no choice but to go with the closing line.

[celtics3388]

what useless stats this guy gives out

[alexknyc]

Wouldnt the Miami game be considered a push? When John released his play on Miami the line was still Miami -5 as evident by his analysis on the game. The line wasnt adjusted to Miami -11.5 until about 2hours later. Im pretty sure this would have changed his analysis of the game

His analysis included the Heat winning by seven or more points. If you want to argue it should have been -7, I'd agree but that wouldn't matter. Nowhere was -5 an option in the analysis. If you want a specific line, you need to cite it in the post.

[John Ryan]

JR what you think now??? Spurs playing mind game slam on spurs first half and whole game, they resting their starters to force people stay away from them but their bench still good and heat will let down due to playing spurs bench warmer.. Spurs first have and whole game are the best bets!!! what you guys think spreads is -12 now wow? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...parker-vs-heat

good catch.. I think it is ridiculous that Stern is going to enact sanctions on the Spurs. Four games in five days? and they still put on a great show.

[John Ryan]

what useless stats this guy gives out

let's see what you use that are useful. Enlighten all of us. Back up your statement and comment.

[John Ryan]

Philadelphia -3 1/2 over Charlotte
Orlando +4 1/2 over Brooklyn
Lakers - 5 over Denver

[celtics3388]

Play on the Miami Heat as they take on the Spurs in NBA action to be aired by TNT starting at The simulator shows a high probability that the Heat will win this game by seven or more points. The Heat are in an excellent spot for an easy double digit win. The sim shows that they will shoot between 48 to 51% of their shots and wills core between 99 and 104 points. The Heat are 173-81 ATS (+83.9 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game since 1996; 157-75 ATS (+74.5 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game since 1996. Miami is 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

let's see what you use that are useful. Enlighten all of us. Back up your statement and comment.

You are using stats that go back to 1996. How the game is played has completely changed since then. I'd rather focus on how a team has been playing over the current season, and more importantly, over the past few weeks to a month. Teams change not only year to year but throughout the course of the season so giving out ancient stats does no good but makes people think you know what your talking about. I do use some relevant stats but think the best way to find an edge and be ahead of the market is by watching games with an open mind and also looking for situational angles - not using a random sample size that makes your stats look more meaningful than they are.

[usfunca]

You are using stats that go back to 1996.

This. It's pretty crazy to rely on stats for a team that go back 16 years. Yikes.

[njcardshark]

His analysis included the Heat winning by seven or more points. If you want to argue it should have been -7, I'd agree but that wouldn't matter. Nowhere was -5 an option in the analysis. If you want a specific line, you need to cite it in the post.

You are misunderstanding what I am saying...Im saying that the line was 5-5.5(depending on your book) all day up until the news came out that San Antonio was benching its 4 top scorers. When John released his play it was a reflection of the current line as evident by him saying he expected the Heat to have at least a 7 pt edge. If someone was reading his pick after the Poppovich's announcement, I would like to think they would have the common sense to realize his pick was based on the -5 line and not a line that was reposted by the sportsbooks at -11.5.

[alexknyc]

You are misunderstanding what I am saying...Im saying that the line was 5-5.5(depending on your book) all day up until the news came out that San Antonio was benching its 4 top scorers. When John released his play it was a reflection of the current line as evident by him saying he expected the Heat to have at least a 7 pt edge. If someone was reading his pick after the Poppovich's announcement, I would like to think they would have the common sense to realize his pick was based on the -5 line and not a line that was reposted by the sportsbooks at -11.5.

Even at -5.5, it's still a loss.

Things like this are going to happen if you're vague about spreads. Best way to avoid this is to be specific about the spread at the time of posting.

[John Ryan]

No NBA today..

[John Ryan]

No NBA plays for Sunday either

[celtics3388]

let's see what you use that are useful. Enlighten all of us. Back up your statement and comment.

You are using stats that go back to 1996. How the game is played has completely changed since then. I'd rather focus on how a team has been playing over the current season, and more importantly, over the past few weeks to a month. Teams change not only year to year but throughout the course of the season so giving out ancient stats does no good but makes people think you know what your talking about. I do use some relevant stats but think the best way to find an edge and be ahead of the market is by watching games with an open mind and also looking for situational angles - not using a random sample size that makes your stats look more meaningful than they are.

.....

[John Ryan]

play on Bradley as they take on George Washington in College Hoops action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Bradley will win this game by nine or more points. Two different styles of teams take to the floor tonight. GW likes to run a methodical offensive scheme with significant ball movement. They don’t have the personnel, though. to get into a higher paced game. Bradley has significant advantages choosing to run on every opportunity, especially on missed GW shots and score often in transition. GW ranks 219th averaging 64.3 PPG, 135th posting a +2.4 scoring margin, 61st averaging 14.6 assists per game. Bradley ranks 58th in the nation averaging 75 PPG, 64th posting a 8.6 points per game margin, and 29th averaging 15.9 assists per game. They are vastly better ball handlers than GW posting a 1.321 assists to turnover ratio good for 24th best in the nation. GW ranks a horrid 200th in this category posting a 0.836 ratio. This simply means that GW turns the ball over more times than they record assists. The sik shows a high probability that GW will hit less than 30% from beyond the arc. In past games, GW is just 0-6 ATS when they make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Bradley.

[John Ryan]

Detroit + 2 1/2 over Chicago
Toronto +7 over Utah

Two plays for Friday night action.

[alexknyc]

December 7

Detroit +2.5 LOSS
Toronto +7 LOSS

Season: 15-22-1 -9 units

[John Ryan]

Nothing in the NBA for today..

25* plays went 3-0 ATS last night.. 76ers, Lakers, and Canisius. 39-17-1 ATS All Sports including 14-3 ATS in the NFL.

[celtics3388]

guy is a huge joke