Nba 2012-2013

[wguan2]

Saturday 11/24/12

OKC -4 2x
LAC -2 2x
OKC Over 191 2x (A4)
LAC Over 187.5 2x (A4)

Dallas is an A3 tomorrow but I'm going to wait to see if I can get +2. Good luck everyone.

[wguan2]

Chicago Milwaukee Under 193 1x

[wguan2]

Dallas +2 2x (A3)

[wguan2]

Sacramento +1.5 1x

[wguan2]

Today: 5-2 (Units 8-4)
+3.8 units

YTD 68-48-5 (Units 79-64-7)
+11.94 units

Great night. Just keep on grinding my way there. I know I've been playing a lot of games lately and that's probably partially because I've been a little on tilt from a brutal weekend of CFB last weekend but I'll try to scale it back a little. However, I also have to keep in mind that this is my style and as long as I am picking good picks and beating the closers, I am happy with my picks. Good luck everyone on Sunday football.

PS. I am going to lock in the New York under as soon as my book opens it. Should be at 192.

[wguan2]

Lost the under this afternoon. Both afternoon games went over the total. Bound to happen I guess.

Philly -3.5 1x
Philly under 194.5 1x

Gonna play Boston over but wanna see if the line continues to move down. I think Boston realizes they can't play the slow game they are so used to anymore and Orlando should be able to have decent production at home. Also, I think this game ends up being a free throw shootout. I'll see how the line moves but I'm happy with 190 anyway.

[wguan2]

Boston over 189.5 1x

[wguan2]

Denver -10 1x

[wguan2]

2-3 (Units 2-3)
-1.15 units

YTD 68-48-5 (Units 79-64-7)
+10.79 units

[wguan2]

11/26/12

Memphis/Cleveland Over 197 2x

[wguan2]

WOW. I got destroyed by the Memphis line overnight. Did not see this one coming at all. Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams and plays with one of the highest pace while Memphis is in the middle for both. I understand that Memphis plays good defense but I see them easily scoring 105-110 tonight. Whether Cleveland gets blown out will decide this game for me I guess but damn, first time this year I've gotten completely owned by the line movement. Bad call by me. It happens. Just gotta learn from it.

Utah -3.5 2x (A1)
San Antonio over 191.5 2x (A4)

[wguan2]

LAC/Nola under 189.5 1x
Knicks -1 2x

That's it. Good luck everyone. Got a lot of work to do this week so going to cap early and let everything ride. Hasn't been a great week but hopefully the last day of the betting week can be good to me. The Memphis game still worries me but can't think too much about it. Oh well.

[wguan2]

Chasing.
Added a unit to the lac under for a total of 2
Hornets +13 2x

[wguan2]

2-4 (Units 4-8)
-4.4 units

YTD 68-48-5 (Units 79-64-7)
+6.39 units

[wguan2]

Dallas/Philly over 193 2x

All of the stats in this game tell me that this should go under which is what I leaned at first. Only one stat would support the over and that is Dallas is number 3 in pace. However, after looking at the teams and how they've played lately, I think Philly is understanding now that they can't simply grind games out anymore because their defense is not as good as before and neither is their offense. With no Iggy to defend wings and no Lou Williams to score off the bench, winning games at around the early 90s in score just won't happen anymore. I think they're playing at a much faster pace lately and just playing harder in general. Also, I've watched their past two games and they seem to be figuring things out on offense much better than the first 10 games of the season. As for Dallas, they play no defense on the road and simply try to outscore opponents. If they win, they'll have to score 100. If they lose, they'll probably lose by 10+ to a score around 100-90 which will put us close to the 193 mark. I think they get up for this game though after being embarrassed by the Lakers last game.

Waiting on taking Phoenix A3, wanna get the key number of 2. Also am thinking about the Houston/Toronto over. Also like the Phoenix over. With those two games, I just don't see anyone playing defense, especially Cleveland. Wanted to lock it in but the opening number of 204 was just way too high. I think 200-201 is the right number but seeing as it's being hit down, I think I'll wait a little bit to see if I can get around 200. I think this will end up back at 202-203 though.

As for the Houston/Toronto game, it comes down to who controls the tempo and usually the home team does. Houston is number 1 in pace but Toronto is a little farther behind. Both teams are middle of the pack in off eff and def eff but Toronto is 21 in def eff. We'll see. I think the line is pretty sharp right now but it's an interesting game.

[wguan2]

Suns -3 2x (A3)
Suns/Cavs Over 201 2x

BOL Everyone.

[wguan2]

Toronto Houston over 203 2x

[wguan2]

Cleveland/Phoenix 2H under 98.5 2x

[4seasons]

Cleveland on the road against Memphis, Miami & Orlando come out smoking, and then when they get home for lowly Phoenix they can only score 32 in the first half? 32 points ... at home ... against the Suns? The only thing I've figured out so far about the outcomes of meaningless sporting events, is that you can't figure it out. Of course if and when we can, all the Books, Vegas, etc. will be bankrupt. Want to bet when that will happen?

Since the Cavs found a way to lose their last 3 games in the end, and they were so miserable in the first half, the only logical expectation is to expect what is not logical and that the Cavs come back in this one so Cavs +1 2nd half has to be the play, right?

[wguan2]

Houston/Toronto over 101 2x

[wguan2]

Cleveland on the road against Memphis, Miami & Orlando come out smoking, and then when they get home for lowly Phoenix they can only score 32 in the first half? 32 points ... at home ... against the Suns? The only thing I've figured out so far about the outcomes of meaningless sporting events, is that you can't figure it out. Of course if and when we can, all the Books, Vegas, etc. will be bankrupt. Want to bet when that will happen?

Since the Cavs found a way to lose their last 3 games in the end, and they were so miserable in the first half, the only logical expectation is to expect what is not logical and that the Cavs come back in this one so Cavs +1 2nd half has to be the play, right?

Dude, that first half of the Cleveland game really pisses me off. With that and the Utah game last night along with just the shit outcomes the past week, I've been on complete tilt. After tonight, I'm going to completely scale it back because clearly I'm not getting the right read on the games lately. I don't know what it is but you're right, how do they score 32 in the first half? I knew they'd be tired and they wouldn't play defense but to not at all play offense? I just don't know. I'll have to regroup after tonight. I'll be lucky to get up. Good luck buddy.

[4seasons]

Dude, that first half of the Cleveland game really pisses me off. With that and the Utah game last night along with just the shit outcomes the past week, I've been on complete tilt. After tonight, I'm going to completely scale it back because clearly I'm not getting the right read on the games lately. I don't know what it is but you're right, how do they score 32 in the first half? I knew they'd be tired and they wouldn't play defense but to not at all play offense? I just don't know. I'll have to regroup after tonight. I'll be lucky to get up. Good luck buddy.

How about the Clippers who were 10:1 favorites last night? Who's 'capping that? All you can do is say no NBA team is ever a 10:1 favorite, and then the only option is to take the dog. Just like Cleveland +15 at Miami, that all but won that game, who can bet that any NBA team is going to win by 16+ points in ANY game? Frankly, whether the game is a -1 or -15, we don't know who's going to win, and it's ALWAYS just a roll of the dice. To bet your money on the outcomes of these meaningless sporting events, is simply to be a sap. And like syrup being sucked from the maple tree, the Books suck cash from loose wallets. If you truly 'completely scale back' then and only then you've made the most wise and profitable decision that you can. Betting on meaningless sporting events, is simply to volunteer to deposit your money for good to the Book. And if you think I'm wrong, just look at all the posts here, and covers.com, etc. and you'll see that the folks are just natural born losers. I'm one of them too, like my Cavs 2nd half pick, and we have to realize that there's got to be something better we can do with our money, isn't there?

[wguan2]

How about the Clippers who were 10:1 favorites last night? Who's 'capping that? All you can do is say no NBA team is ever a 10:1 favorite, and then the only option is to take the dog. Just like Cleveland +15 at Miami, that all but won that game, who can bet that any NBA team is going to win by 16+ points in ANY game? Frankly, whether the game is a -1 or -15, we don't know who's going to win, and it's ALWAYS just a roll of the dice. To bet your money on the outcomes of these meaningless sporting events, is simply to be a sap. And like syrup being sucked from the maple tree, the Books suck cash from loose wallets. If you truly 'completely scale back' then and only then you've made the most wise and profitable decision that you can. Betting on meaningless sporting events, is simply to volunteer to deposit your money for good to the Book. And if you think I'm wrong, just look at all the posts here, and covers.com, etc. and you'll see that the folks are just natural born losers. I'm one of them too, like my Cavs 2nd half pick, and we have to realize that there's got to be something better we can do with our money, isn't there?

Well, you have to keep in mind that most of us on these boards are doing this as a hobby. Losing money to a hobby isn't necessary a loss. I do think that if you take this seriously and you put in serious work into becoming good at this, capping games is no different than trading on wall street. If anything, with comparable skill levels relative to either wall street or sports betting, I think sports betting actually yields better results than trading. My brother's a trader at a company for about 10 years now and he's always said that less than 33% of the hires at the company (it's an international company) actually succeed in generating profit their first 2 years. Moreover, he's said out of his hires locally in Austin, TX, the number is even lower.

All I'm saying is if we put the time into this, scale back the losses, maximize the gains, we can profit. But even if I don't profit and I end up losing 1k at the end of the year, I truly won't be mad. I love sports and handicapping sports is incredibly enjoyable (though it makes me a little cynical at times).

But I'd say in terms of large dogs, I'm wary of playing the favorites but they do cover. Denver -10 the other day for instance. OKC last night.

The thing about the Hornets is the public perception of them is that they're god awful (and they are in terms of SU) but they play extremely hard. No matter who is on the court, Coach Monty Williams makes them play tough defense and smart offense. I'm from Nola so I follow them closely. I would bet that they had a winning ATS last year and that they will have a winning ATS this year, especially at home. Also, they tend to play extremely well against good teams like Miami, Lakers, etc. There's a reason Nola took the Lakers to 7 games a few years ago. I also think they played Miami to even in ATS last year.

Anyway, hope you make the best decision for yourself in terms of whether you want to continue. This post actually helped me snap out of my tilt so I do thank you for that. Good luck to you.

[4seasons]

Being on tilt is the kiss of death, the waving of the white flag, the basically surrender mode. Wise to never put yourself in a position where any one loss sends you over the edge. Was fun when put it in a little and got back a little, unlike these days when I put in a lot and wind up getting my cheeks spread. Often wonder if you just bet your favorite team, presuming is a contender, and just forget all the 'capping and injuries and trends and spreads and weather and officials, etc. and just blindly bet your team, if that's the answer to having a simple profitable season and at worst just be down a tad. Or, just bet the non-contenders like the Hornets who come to compete and cover more than 65% of the time. All I've learned, is that the answer to who will win the game, is no where to be found no matter what you hear, read, see or feel.

[wguan2]

4-2 (Units 8-4)
+3.8 units

YTD 72-50-5 (Units 87-68-7)
+10.19 units

[wguan2]

Boston/Brooklyn over 191.5 1x
Chicago/Dallas under 190.5 1x

I'll provide some write-up/insight tomorrow. BOL

[wguan2]

Portland -3 1x
New Orleans +3 1x

[wguan2]

ML Parlay San Antonio/LAC/Atlanta (-120) 2x

I don't like to do this type of play but I don't see any of these 3 teams losing tonight. SA may or may not cover but they shouldn't lose here. LAC shouldn't lose after losing SU to Hornets as a 13 point favorite. Atlanta shouldn't lose here because Charlotte just isn't good. All 3 teams are coming off rest and SA is the only team on the road. Just don't see it here. Only possibility I can fathom is LAC losing SU to Minnesota but I am willing to risk this bet counting on LAC's pride at home and also Billup's return.

Only considering one more play but this is probably it. Good luck everyone. I usually don't run too well on these large card days but let's hope that trend changes tonight.

[wguan2]

Knicks -2 1x

[wguan2]

New Orleans Utah 2H Under 94.5 1x

[wguan2]

LAC/Minn under 194.5 2x

[wguan2]

LAC/Minn 2H over 98 2x
LAC TT 2H over 52 2x

[wguan2]

3-7 (4-10 Units)
-7 units

YTD 72-50-5 (Units 87-68-7)
+3.19 units

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

who do u like tomo?

[wguan2]

who do u like tomo?

Miami is an A3 autoplay. San Antonio on 4th in 5 nights. Also will probably play the over in GS Denver.