Nba 2012-2013

[wguan2]

3-7 (4-10 Units)
-7 units

YTD 72-50-5 (Units 87-68-7)
+3.19 units

WOWOWOWOW I GOT LUCKY. I just logged into my book and I got lucky TWICE? I don't even know what happened to be honest but according to my book, my LAC/Minn Under 194.5 didn't go through. Not to mention I accidentally placed the Under 98 2H instead of Over. This is almost a 7 unit swing putting me at even for the day. WOW. I don't know how I'm going to go about this in terms of the thread record. I'll think about it and deal with it tomorrow. This is awesome.

Earlier in the year, I had a bet in CFB where it was a 3 unit chaser at the end of the night and I won it or so I thought. Then I realized I placed the wrong side so it was a 6 unit swing. This is variance on my bad habits apparently. So so so so so so awesome. This is better than actually winning LOL.

[wguan2]

11/29/12

Miami -6 2x (A3)
Golden State/Denver Over 198.5 1x

[wguan2]

Caught another break? lol, Spurs benching 4 of their starters. Nice. Also beating the GS line by 2 total points. Hoping for a good night. About yesterday's ridiculousness of luck, I'm going go with my actual YTD which will be posted below but I will keep in mind that if anyone questions it, I will refer to this post and they can subtract 6 units when discussing my W/L if they really feel the need to. I'll even post a screen cap if questioned about my legitimacy but otherwise, I see no point in keeping a YTD that isn't in line with my YTD in my book.

4-5 Last night (Units 6-6)
-0.57 units

YTD 76-55-5 (Units 93-74-7)
+9.62 units

[wguan2]

Aiming for +14 by the end of this week.

[wguan2]

GS +1.5 2x

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Fade the Spurs next time they play this week?

or make a play on the Heat?

[wguan2]

Fade the Spurs next time they play this week?

or make a play on the Heat?

Need to know the lines. I know the Spurs play Memphis at home and it'll probably be something like -3 or -4. Don't see why we would fade the Spurs. I really don't like betting on the Heat because of instances like tonight. The regular season bores them so I rather not bet on a team that is so unpredictable.

[wguan2]

GS -2.5 2H 2x

[wguan2]

Phew. That was a ridiculous game. I love crazy games but not when the ref has so much control like that game. The iggy call was ridiculous, all of the replays in the last few minutes. Just a crazy game but I'm glad I came out on top of this one after the debacle that was Miami...

3-1 (Units 5-2)
+2.9 units

YTD 76-55-5 (Units 93-74-7)
+12.52 units

[wguan2]

11/30/12

Cleveland +9 1x
Memphis/Detroit under 190.5

[wguan2]

Philly ML -160 1x

[wguan2]

Lakers -5.5 2x (A2)

I lost the -5 because I was waiting for it to figure itself out as to whether it was an auto play or not. Sucks but I guess I have to live with it. Autoplays will help you some and some nights it may not but that's the risk of taking autoplays. Just hope they win in the long run is all.

[Dexter]

when is the next 4in5 situation? do you have it mapped out ahead of time?

i have 12/8 with a play on the knicks...

[wguan2]

when is the next 4in5 situation? do you have it mapped out ahead of time?

i have 12/8 with a play on the knicks...

For everyoene's reference

Knicks 12/8

Denver 12/9

Denver 12/11

Charlotte 12/12

New York 12/15

Chicago 12/15

Miami 12/18

Lakers 12/22

Denver 12/22

Milwaukee 12/29

Memphis 12/29

[wguan2]

4-0 Today (Units 5-0)
+5 units

YTD 80-55-5 (Units 98-74-7)
+17.52 units

[wguan2]

Portland Cleveland over 193 1x

[wguan2]

Dallas is an A2 tonight but I think this line may drop. We'll see.

[wguan2]

Chicago/Philly Under 183

[wguan2]

Tried to wait till the last second for a possible Detroit steam (most people on the forum are taking Detroit so was playing my chances) but couldn't get it.

Dallas -7 2x (A2)

[wguan2]

12/1/12
3-0 (Units 4-0)
+4 units

YTD 83-55-5 (Units 102-74-7)
+21.52 units

[wguan2]

Record for Autoplays for the month of November:
**And remember all autoplays are 2 units each. I have not decided if I am going to increase these. More than likely not since it's my first year playing autoplays.

A1: 1-1
A2: 2-1
A3: 3-5
A4: 6-0

[Dexter]

83-55 - super impressive wguan....keep it going. i would say leave it at 2u for this year. increasing A4 now might just be bad timing.

[wguan2]

Knicks -10.5 2x

I wish I jumped on this when it was -10 but I have so many things going on right now that I forgot about the early Sunday game. I usually don't like taking double digit favorites but I think this is warranted. Phoenix isn't good on the road and they allowed one of the highest point totals on the road. On top of that, Knicks are unbeaten at home and are playing good basketball at home right now. This right here makes it deserve a one unit play.

The reason I'm playing this for two units is because it's a Sunday afternoon game. Usually I take the under here but I could see Knicks going for 110+ so I rather not. This game is being played at noon eastern time which means Phoenix (mountain west time if I'm not mistaking) will be playing this game in their minds at 10am. That is not an easy thing to do. It is extremely hard for the body to adjust to that and moreover, to mentally get focused for a basketball game against a superior team away from home. Even if the Knicks do not play their best tomorrow, jumping to an early lead should be enough to shut Phx down. I don't see Phoenix putting a fight here. If the Knicks win, they blow them out. Only way Phx covers is if they are winning for more than half the game and I just don't see that happening.

If I manage to catch it, I may take Knicks team total over here. I don't usually play team totals but this is a good one to play. I assume it's at 106ish? I'll think about it.

Good luck everyone. Tomorrow's Lakers game should be interesting too but let's see how this play goes first.

[wguan2]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and play the Lakers playing fast pace tonight. The only way the Magic can even compete tonight is by containing the bigs which they can't do because the size difference is massive. On top of that, the Lakers are shooting it pretty well tonight and if the bench can keep producing like it has been, 110+ is very possible tonight. With Dwight playing his old team, I think he will try to have a great game which should nullify whatever Pau decides to do tonight. Hopefully Pau doesn't decide to have one of his off games where he just doesn't seem to be focused. Even if he did though, Jamison and Dwight should be able to pick it up. In the end to be honest, I think this play comes down to whether Ron Artest can make his threes. I wanted to play the spread but it's just too high and after getting heavily burned this morning by the Knicks, I just can't play a double digit spread again on the same day. It is possible Orlando attempts to slow down the pace but I don't see even that being an issue. Good luck everyone.

Lakers TT Over 105.5 2x

[wguan2]

0-2 Was bound to hit an o-fer day after my latest run. Oh well I hit my goal for the end of the weak and will continue to grind it out to get where I want to be by the end of the season.
-4.2 units

YTD 83-57-5 (Units 102-78-7)
+17.32 units

Have a few leans for tomorrow already. Good luck everyone.

[sando]

Nice plays today mate, both were solid, just one of those days, oh well on to tomorrow. Keep up the great work.

[wguan2]

Denver Toronto over 200.5 2x

i see no difference in this game compared to the Toronto Houston game a few nights ago. I have this set at 203 but missed the early steam because my book releases Monday lines late. Anyway, I'm glad it came back down but I think it will close around 202 or so. With 2.5 points of value ill play it for 2x.

Golden State Orlando under 195.5 1x

this will either be a blowout or a defensive struggle with two jump shooting teams. There will be no hack a Dwight to save the over. Also with the high scoring first half last night and the high pace, it still had a chance of the under until the hack a Dwight.

I have leans on Nola +4 Utah under and Portland.

Will wait for line movements. I will take Nola no matter what though but I want to get 4.5. This will be a close game. I'm from Nola and watch them every game. They will play hard tonight after the blowout. They always do.

[wguan2]

Denver Toronto over 200.5 2x

i see no difference in this game compared to the Toronto Houston game a few nights ago. I have this set at 203 but missed the early steam because my book releases Monday lines late. Anyway, I'm glad it came back down but I think it will close around 202 or so. With 2.5 points of value ill play it for 2x.

Golden State Orlando under 195.5 1x

this will either be a blowout or a defensive struggle with two jump shooting teams. There will be no hack a Dwight to save the over. Also with the high scoring first half last night and the high pace, it still had a chance of the under until the hack a Dwight.

I have leans on Nola +4 Utah under and Portland.

Will wait for line movements. I will take Nola no matter what though but I want to get 4.5. This will be a close game. I'm from Nola and watch them every game. They will play hard tonight after the blowout. They always do.

Denver Over 201 0.5x
New Orleans +4 2.5x
New Orleans ML +160 1x
Detroit -4.5 2x (I originally had 1x here but it was a typo)

This is probably the biggest card I've had this year in terms of risk. I really like today's card especially those two plays. New Orleans always plays hard after being embarrassed and after being outplayed twice in a row by OKC, I think they know they need to show up here. The fact that they are at home makes me like it even more. 4 points is a lot of points to give to New Orleans. I think they win this game outright. This will be a great up and down game. Good luck everyone, lets have a great day today.

[wguan2]

So many typos in the last post but I got it all fixed, it should be right now.

[imadegen]

betting on the under on a warriors game?! haha jk, i'm tailing today. gl

[sando]

Glad I'm not the only one who likes Detroit today. That Bowen comment in my thread was absolutely hilarious!

[wguan2]

Denver Over 201 0.5x
New Orleans +4 2.5x
New Orleans ML +160 1x
Detroit -4.5 2x (I originally had 1x here but it was a typo)

This is probably the biggest card I've had this year in terms of risk. I really like today's card especially those two plays. New Orleans always plays hard after being embarrassed and after being outplayed twice in a row by OKC, I think they know they need to show up here. The fact that they are at home makes me like it even more. 4 points is a lot of points to give to New Orleans. I think they win this game outright. This will be a great up and down game. Good luck everyone, lets have a great day today.

Added one unit to Nola ML now a total of 2x at +160

[wguan2]

betting on the under on a warriors game?! haha jk, i'm tailing today. gl

Haha this is actually exactly the response I'm looking for though. I think the Golden State's name is so entrenched into betting the over that their defense is incredibly underrated. Mark Jackson has put a completely new philosophy in that team with defense. On offense, they do play fast sometimes still but they're primarily a jumpshooting team so they can go through stretches missing a lot of shots. This same goes for Orlando. They're very similar teams. The only thing I'm worried about is foul shots. I didn't look into the ref assignments. I would've played this at multiple units but with Orlando coming off b2b, I'm worried they give up just an insurmountable number of points to GS. But it's definitely worth a play still. Good luck buddy.

[imadegen]

Haha this is actually exactly the response I'm looking for though. I think the Golden State's name is so entrenched into betting the over that their defense is incredibly underrated. Mark Jackson has put a completely new philosophy in that team with defense. On offense, they do play fast sometimes still but they're primarily a jumpshooting team so they can go through stretches missing a lot of shots. This same goes for Orlando. They're very similar teams. The only thing I'm worried about is foul shots. I didn't look into the ref assignments. I would've played this at multiple units but with Orlando coming off b2b, I'm worried they give up just an insurmountable number of points to GS. But it's definitely worth a play still. Good luck buddy.

They have vastly improved their defense, I agree. Actually rebounding.

[wguan2]

Not enough free throws in this Nuggets game. This needs to change.