Does anyone know if Ricciardo needs to pit again? I think he has only used softer tyres so far?
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Go Danny! Show that Kraut how!.Comment -
thanks ok opti, thanks for the logshots....as fun ti have a chance at low risk/big reward bet...
this really is my weekend...this is fun.....hopefully the race isnt moday, that means its a new week! shit!
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I hope you riding with me will get us over he line today!
Although dont think we are going to get it. Cars seem to have dropped off the fast lap speed as tyres go. Looking like Rosberg has got it..Comment -
Perez has a chanceComment -
Opti:
I read your detailed H2H analysis and made some strategic picks for a 5 H2H round robin parlay in Groups of 4:
Hamilton +105 over Roseberg
Button -175 over Magnussen
Kvyat -150 over Vergne
Gutierrez -150 over Sutil
Perez +105 over Massa
Only had $50 spread across the whole thing but hitting the perfect score paid about +1250....and IT WAS PERFECT!
Great start to the weekend and THANKS!
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Nice Hit Milehigh Cant belief rosberg couldnt pass lewis on the softs
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Sweet work Miler!Opti:
I read your detailed H2H analysis and made some strategic picks for a 5 H2H round robin parlay in Groups of 4:
Hamilton +105 over Roseberg
Button -175 over Magnussen
Kvyat -150 over Vergne
Gutierrez -150 over Sutil
Perez +105 over Massa
Only had $50 spread across the whole thing but hitting the perfect score paid about +1250....and IT WAS PERFECT!
Great start to the weekend and THANKS!
Definitely read this race right.
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I was cussing the last 9 laps after that caution...I knew I was doomed...can't believe Hamilton held on.
My understanding is that Rosberg had the fast lapComment -
Yeah Rosberg got fastest lap about 12 laps from the end.
Think Hamilton was 2nd fastest and Hulkenburg 3rd fastest lap. :\.Comment -
Haas accepted as the first American team in F1 since Penske in 1977.
Possibly on the grid for 2015 too.
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Hey Opti:
What do you think about this weekend? Your H2H analysis was pretty good last time...give us your wisdom! I haven't started researching yet but plan on making some plays tomorrow...Comment -
Think I went 100% on the h2h calls I made last race. (he says tooting his own horn)
I don't think we have as much great 'strange' info to work with this race, so not sure it will be so easy. But think taking drivers we expect to 2 stop in any head to heads where the other guy looks a chance to 3 stop will be a good strategy.
Hoping practice 3 about to start will help work out who is wearing the front left hard tyres the most. That'll be the key.
Will stick with the Hamiton > Rosberg h2h again, so hoping Rosberg out qualifies him to get the best price. Even though they raced hard at the end of last weeks race, fact is Hamilton would have once again trounced him by more than 10 seconds without the late safety car. I think it's a much more uneven matchup than the bookies, or most people think, so see it as being genuine value at almost any odds.
I'm not a Hamilton fan btw. And didn't think there was a great difference between them in last years car. I'm guessing part of the change is the new car is built for Hamilton's driving style..Comment -
Alonso pole??? Come on!!Comment -
There is a question over weather tomorrow. Chance of rain.
The teams appear to expect a dry race though as a bunch of them clearly weren't set up very well for the wet qualifying, suggesting they used dry race setups for quali, not being allowed to touch the cars between quali and the race.
If it does turn out to be wet, something unusual could happen due to those dry setups and how well the teams can adapt them. We might see some cars choose to start from the pitlane so they can choose to duck into the pits for changes after the parade lap.
Wet or dry the Mercedes should finish one, two. Hamilton over Rosberg.
If wet the Red Bulls should fill positions three and four by a margin over everyone else. In the dry it's not so clear cut for them. But they still 'should' be top 4. Ricciardo looked more comfortable in the wet conditions than Vettel. But think I'd take Vettel in that h2h if pushed to take a side for a dry race.
Hard to get a good read on Massa and Bottas in the Williams. They did better than expected during a wet quali but I am still skeptical they have worked out whatever issues made them look so bad in the wet in previous races. But if it's dry they will be the most likely to challenge Red Bull for the top 4 spots. One potential issue to look out for with them if it's dry would be that they might have gone with a wet setup in quali, which would account for the better than expected performance, but might leave them hamstrung a bit if its a dry race. They still should be top 6 though either way.
Ferrari have been talking up new upgrades they say will give them a real chance on race pace. But I think Ferrari are blowing smoke up our asses. I expect Ferrari will struggle for top 6 if it's wet, or top 8 if it's dry. This track seems to tax the electric power units more than the first 3 races, and it's being reported the Ferrari heat recovery unit on the turbo is less efficient then the other two engines, meaning during the race they will be without electric boost for longer each lap on average than the others. Hard to quantify the cost in time, but I'm pretty confident it will be a noticeable disadvantage. On top of that, if it's dry, they are one of the teams with front left tyre issues and I think it's about 60/40 that they will have to 3 stop if it's dry. Alonso looks way happier than Kimi with the car. Will probably be very juicy, but Alonso > Raikkonen is a fairly sure winner.
Torro Rosso have historically been strong here, particularly in the wet, and look that way again. I don't have a lot of faith in either Vergne of Kyvat in the wet. But if they do drive well the car should provide enough to fight for a top 10.
Think the Force Indias could be a good fade. In the wet they don't seem to have their engine mapping sorted out very well, and in the dry the characteristic of being easy on the rear tyres that helped them in the last race is the opposite of what they need here and will see them more likely than not have to 3 stop.
Grosjean in the Lotus starting top 10 is impossible to tell what he might do if the car holds together. Best bet might be to take him for first car to retire based on his history and how long it has been since he had to start a GP in the thick of things with fast cars behind him.
The Saubers look less competitive that last race and will struggle to stay ahead of Marrussia and Caterham I think.
Marrussia with the Ferrari engine will have the same issue as the factory team over the race distance. And Caterham have an upgraded Renault power unit in their cars this race. So Kobayashi > Bianci and Ericson > Chilton if can get those head to heads.
haven't seen odds re-posted yet and full set of head to heads so havent really made any decisions. Thats just my thoughts whilst still fresh in my head..Comment -
I took vettel and Alonso for race. Anyone else ever win besides Hamilton and rosberg!?Comment -
Not this year, so far.
Their new spec car is way better than anything else. But Red Bull are catching them a little each race.
It's a bit of a bummer, but when they each make different cars and have such a huge rule change for this year, someone was always going to come out the box best..Comment -
this series really is all about the car
in nascar a driver can make a good car a great car, i don't ever see that happening here...not that i am an expert or even know much of anything as u all know about F1, but just seems like same guys win every single race every year (they may change).....the driver cant make up any differnce if his car is decent and not great and out front all day, ...especially with rare restarts and rare passing the entire race going on....the crew cant seems to help the car either get much better, just tires do....but like i said i don't understand it just my take....
ill be back from vacation though, might make my only ever F1 bets of fastest lap cause the odds are decent, or surprise podium finish to have some action
gonna need some opinions as usual...even though im like 0-8 lifetime on fastest lap but 2 win get me even at the odds they usually are and dont bet much....
hell i might even grab my nut sack and parlay a race winner!
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all depending on what time it starts in the U.S., wont bet unless its on TV in the morning, not the middle of the night as usual or 5amComment -
The big difference between NASCAR, and most big racing series, and F1 is that there is no equalization rules. You don't have a rule maker trying to tell engine makers how much horsepower, just overall specs for an engine, which they change every 10 years or so. No trying to make everyone work with the same downforce etc.
Like NASCAR was originally. When it really was 'pure racing' and not a spec car series.
Sure, artificially equalized racing series are closer and offer more winners and are easier for fans to like... which is why almost every major series tries to do that.
But F1 is still trying to be close to pure racing. Build a better car and get a better driver and you will win.
You're right that about the car being more than the driver in F1... maybe 75-80% car I'd say. But if you are a close fan you can easily see where and how the best drivers show themselves. Alonso is a freak in any car good or bad. Doesn't mean he can always win, but finishing better than your car should in F1 is an exciting result for fans too.
F1 is just different. And honestly the rule makers in F1 have been working more and more toward equalizing cars with the rules as years go by and sponsors demand more exciting racing too. I would prefer they wound it back and there was even more inequality between teams. So it is even more like real pure racing.
It starts at 3.00am your time Mike. About 6.5 hours from now.
There won't be a lot of passing this race, and most of it will happen at the end of one long straight. probably not one you should stay up for specially.
But I'll post my leans on all the 5D head to heads soonish if you do want a winner finally. No Kimi fastest lap bets this week. ;-).Comment -
It's cloudy now and 0% chance of rain around race time. So I just going on the assumption it will be a dry race in cool temps.
It's important that it's cool as that will exacerbate the left front graining effect.
I won't be betting until the SkyF1 broadcast starts and I can see for sure what the weather is. But if dry...
Sun 4/20 7701 Lewis Hamilton -350
3:00AM 7702 Nico Rosberg +290
Silly price, so I guess the sharp bet here is Rosberg. Hamilton -250 to to win, or you can get -500 either Merc car wins. Both better options than -350 here imho.
Sun 4/20 7703 Daniel Ricciardo -125
3:00AM 7704 Sebastian Vettel +105
Interesting odds. All things being equal, and as much as i love Ricciardo's skills and want him to whip Vettel, when the cars have been similar performing for both guys, Vettel still looks better. These odds are probably a reflection of how unhappy Vettel sounded on the radio in the wet yesterday as well as early car issues. I suspect he will be fine in the dry and Vettel +105 is the play.
Sun 4/20 7705 Felipe Massa -130
3:00AM 7706 Valtteri Bottas +110
Bottas all day at +110 for me. (wet or dry)
Sun 4/20 7707 Valtteri Bottas -130
3:00AM 7708 Nico Hulkenberg +110
As I said earlier I suspect the Force India's will have problems wet or dry, in particular with the low temperature today. So Bottas -130 or nothing.
Sun 4/20 7709 Kimi Raikkonen -160
3:00AM 7710 Jenson Button +140
This is a tough one. Kimi has looks really out of sorts and the McLarens have shown nothing. It is possible Kimi ran with a dry setup in quali making him look worse than he will be today... but not taking -160 on that hunch and not confident enough McLaren can even get a top 10 to bite at the +140
Sun 4/20 7711 Jean-Eric Vergne -145
3:00AM 7712 Daniil Kvyat +125
As we are talking dry now... Kvyat +125. No bet if wet.
Sun 4/20 7713 Kevin Magnussen +145
3:00AM 7714 Sergio Perez -165
Fading Perez in the Force India against the lame looking McLaren of Kmag is probably worth trying at +145. Although might take a little more to get me to bite come race time.
Sun 4/20 7715 Adrian Sutil -165
3:00AM 7716 Esteban Gutierrez +145
Guitierrez has 'beaten' Sutil by retiring later in the last 2 races. Sutil finished one place ahead in Australia. Gutierrez has shown good speed compared to Sutil in practice sessions. This should be a coin toss, or -120/+100 sort of odds because of start spots at worst. So if you want value the +145 is it. But you are just playing for the odds not picking a winner, if you know what I mean.
Sun 4/20 7717 Kamui Kobayashi -310
3:00AM 7718 Marcus Ericsson +255
Shame we didn't get Caterham v Marrussia matchups instead of the team mate ones.
Kamui will beat Ericsson baring problems, but not interested in -310 on a backmarker team.
Sun 4/20 7719 Jules Bianchi -200
3:00AM 7720 Max Chilton +170
Bianchi should win the Marussia battle but not at -200 for me.
Sun 4/20 7721 Kimi Raikkonen +145
3:00AM 7722 Felipe Massa -165
Massa.
Sun 4/20 7723 Nico Rosberg -205
3:00AM 7724 Sebastian Vettel +165
Rosberg
Sun 4/20 7725 Sebastian Vettel -225
3:00AM 7726 Fernando Alonso +175
Pass.Comment -
oh ok, well at least that makes me understand alot more of all those things now that u explained them that way....nascar wants all cars to be equal and just adjust on them where F1 they will let them pretty much bulid the car any way then want to a point and every week just make major changes to catch up to the best cars...even though like last season hell no body ever came close to that vettel machine!
and no ill be snoozing long b4 3am, my time that's for sure...ill just have to check in on how u guys did whenever i wake up...
my vacation winding down now so need the sleep for than watching that race
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here's what I did with HTHs, mostly just taking longshot HTHs, even though not sure that's a viable betting strategy for F1
STRAIGHT BET
[7722] F MASSA -150
(K RAIKKONEN vrs F MASSA)
8001 Pastor Maldonado +300* vs Romain Grosjean
8003 Kimi Raikkonen +300* vs Fernando Alonso
8005 Kevin Magnussen +200* vs Jenson Button
8008 Sergio Perez +260* vs Nico Hulkenberg
8010 Fernando Alonso -210* vs Jenson Button
7718 Marcus Ericsson +255* vs Kamui Kobayashi
7707 Valtteri Bottas -130* vs Nico Hulkenberg
7720 Max Chilton +175* vs Jules Bianchi
7723 Nico Rosberg -190* vs Sebastian Vettel
Ericsson>Kobayashi was the one I bet the biggest.
oh, and after reading Opti's post, I'll add:
MU [7716] E GUTIERREZ +155 (A SUTIL vrs E GUTIERREZ)[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Any fast lap bets?Comment -
Took Kyvat for top 10 +175
and these head 2 heads
4/20/2014 3:00 AM Formula1 Motor Racing 7704 Sebastian Vettel* +105 vs Daniel Ricciardo
4/20/2014 3:00 AM Formula1 Motor Racing 7706 Valtteri Bottas* +110 vs Felipe Massa
4/20/2014 3:00 AM Formula1 Motor Racing 7712 Daniil Kvyat* +120 vs Jean-Eric Vergne
4/20/2014 3:00 AM Formula1 Motor Racing 7716 Esteban Gutierrez* +145 vs Adrian Sutil
4/20/2014 3:00 AM Formula1 Motor Racing 8005 Kevin Magnussen* +175 vs Jenson Button.Comment -
will tail
MU [7712] D KVYAT +129 (JE VERGNE vrs D KVYAT)
bet Kvyat and Grosjean in all four markets
5 Dimes the only US book to actually offer full odds, as opposed to listing 4 or 5 drivers and then the field (and the field is not being offered at fair odds)[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Looks like you might have escaped near even Yis? As long as you didn't go too hard on that Ericsonn>Kobayashi bet.
4-2 +350
That'll do considering Alonso laughed at my prediction Ferrari would be in trouble, and so did the Force Indias.
Although the weather turned out warmer than expected helping decrease graining issues, which was a big part of thinking for fading both of them..Comment -
Opti:
once again your commentary was right on the mark. Made some good money off some round-robin betting once again on your H2H plays
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ah, the big underdogs didn't hit
Oh well
Made a little back by tailing Gutierrez over Sutil, thanks Opti[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Opti: Ready for analysis this week? :-)Comment
