My Motorsport 2014

[Optional]

Hard to tell exactly yet... but it appears to me like I have the pecking order close to correct after the 2 Thursday practice sessions.

Alonso shone but Kimi really struggled in the Ferrari. Alonso will probably manage one of the top 6 spots, just.

Force India looked great, and Perez looked to have the edge on Hulk for a change as predicted.

Williams was tough to get a bead on. Bottas made the car look like a top 6 contender whilst most of the time Massa struggled toward the bottom of the time sheets.

McLaren cars looked a lot better than last couple of races. They should take 1 or 2 of the top 10 spots the way they are going.

Vergne blew a few minds in the Torro Rosso. He really is good around here. Easy pick against the first time on a street circuit rookie Kyvat in head to heads... but damn it the odds will be shitty.

Both Lotus guys struggled badly for speed as predicted.



Perez is still on offer at Betfair for a top 6 at $4.50 (+350) ... If your book offers anything close to that I'd jump on it for a full unit, maybe two units. Not just great value (imho) but also a serious chance to cash.




I'll go out on a limb and try to predict the finish order.

Hamilton or Rosberg for top 2 spots again. Rosberg about 2/1 and Hamilton at Evens. No opportunity there.

Ricciardo for the 3rd podium spot. Would like to be getting 2/1 or better to make it acceptable value for a bet.

Alonso and Vettel to fill out the top 5. (Probably have to take these two along with Ricciardo to fight for a podium before knowing grid order)


Now it gets interesting....

For the top 6 market we only have 1 spot left and 3 contenders;

Ferrari - Kimi Raikkonen
Force India - Perez
Williams - Bottas


Following them we have 2 spots left to fill out the top 10 with 5 contenders;

McLaren - Button and Magnussen
Torro Rosso - Vergne
Williams - Massa
Force India - Hulkenburg


At the back of the field, Sauber looks to have a comfy setup for their drivers (compared to most others) and I would not be shocked to see either Sutil or Guitrierez pull out a qualifying surprise and possibly steal a Q3 spot. If odds are high enough and they continue to look promising after Practice3 on Saturday morning I might take a lucky dip stab on one. By high enough I mean ~ 20/1

[Optional]

I took a couple of quali matchups.

Pastor Maldonado v Jean-Eric Vergne - Head To Head ( Qualifying)
Jean-Eric Vergne @ 2.30

Jenson Button v Sergio Perez - Head To Head ( Qualifying)
Sergio Perez @ 1.85


Had to make a Titanbet account to enter the SBR tennis competition, and they had a nice first deposit bonus so used their lines.


Also taking Perez +120 over Hulkenburg @ 5D. That was the only macthup there I liked. (although Magnusen +145 over Button is almost tempting enough to take on price)

If anything changes after Practice 3 in about 3 hours I'll post, but apart from the two I mentioned I think all the listed quali favorites are tough to bet against, if trying to pick winners rather than value.


Qualifying Matchups - Monaco Grand Prix - Circuit de Monao - Monte Carlo, Monaco - Saturday 24th, 8:00 AM - NBCSN

Sat 5/24 6001 Lewis Hamilton (Qualifying) -205
5:00AM 6002 Nico Rosberg (Qualifying) +165

Sat 5/24 6003 Felipe Massa (Qualifying) +110
5:00AM 6004 Valtteri Bottas (Qualifying) -140

Sat 5/24 6005 Sebastian Vettel (Qualifying) -120
5:00AM 6006 Daniel Ricciardo (Qualifying) -110

Sat 5/24 6007 Fernando Alonso (Qualifying) -290
5:00AM 6008 Kimi Raikkonen (Qualifying) +230

Sat 5/24 6009 Jenson Button (Qualifying) -175
5:00AM 6010 Kevin Magnussen (Qualifying) +145

Sat 5/24 6011 Nico Hulkenberg (Qualifying) -150
5:00AM 6012 Sergio Perez (Qualifying) +120

Sat 5/24 6013 Jean-Eric Vergne (Qualifying) -145
5:00AM 6014 Daniil Kvyat (Qualifying) +115

Sat 5/24 6015 Jules Bianchi (Qualifying) -270
5:00AM 6016 Max Chilton (Qualifying) +210

Sat 5/24 6017 Kamui Kobayashi (Qualifying) -450
5:00AM 6018 Marcus Ericsson (Qualifying) +330

Sat 5/24 6019 Esteban Gutierrez (Qualifying) -110
5:00AM 6020 Adrian Sutil (Qualifying) -120

Sat 5/24 6021 Romain Grosjean (Qualifying) -180
5:00AM 6022 Pastor Maldonado (Qualifying) +150

[Optional]

Loving my quali bets after Practice3

Vergne for a Top 10 at those early odds was a good bet to whoever that was that said they took it.

Quali going to be very interesting. I think many of the drivers have been too scared too scared to push the limits and risk hitting the walls in practice this year. only Sutil has so far and that was only a small hit.

I suspect with so many drivers not knowing the limit this could end up being a messy quali session.


Practice 3 times





For those that don't know all the teams it goes;

Merc
Red bull
Merc
Red Bull
Ferrari
Ferrari
Force India
Force India
Torro Rosso
Torro Rosso
McLaren
McLaren
Williams
Williams
Sauber
Lotus
Marussia
Lotus
Sauber
Caterham
Marussia
Catheram

Force India, Torro Rosso and to a lesser extent Sauber are the cars looking better suited here.

Williams looking worryingly up and down for them. McLaren a bit lower in pecking order than they were last race.

Ferrari not looking too bad for race pace but nowhere near close enough to the top 2 to be very serious podium contenders.

Worth the odds for a Rosberg pole. He looked comfortable and Lewis not so much during P3, despite the Brit topping the time chart.

Actually, if I was going to bet pole I'd take Ricciardo at about 15/1. But not betting it as I suspect the Mercs will push it once quali starts and be at least ½ second ahead still.

[Optional]

I took a couple of quali matchups.

Pastor Maldonado v Jean-Eric Vergne - Head To Head ( Qualifying)
Jean-Eric Vergne @ 2.30

Jenson Button v Sergio Perez - Head To Head ( Qualifying)
Sergio Perez @ 1.85


Had to make a Titanbet account to enter the SBR tennis competition, and they had a nice first deposit bonus so used their lines.


Also taking Perez +120 over Hulkenburg @ 5D. That was the only macthup there I liked. (although Magnusen +145 over Button is almost tempting enough to take on price)

Boom... 100% even before Q3 starts

Should have taken the Magnussen over Button too. Already a winner as well.

[Optional]

Wow Lewis is chowing on sour grapes about Rosberg winning pole.

Rosberg makes an error whilst lewis is on his final fast lap bringing out a local caution flag and preventing Hamilton a chance to beat his pole time.

Hamilton acting like he thinks Rosberg did it on purpose.

[yisman]

got rosberg -150 over hamilton earlier

7725 Jean-Eric Vergne* +115 vs Kevin Magnussen

Kimi Raikkonen 25-May-2014 5:00 AM PST
	Money Line for Matchups +334

over Alonso

7711

Nico Hulkenberg 25-May-2014 5:00 AM PST
	Money Line for Matchups -102

vs Sergio Perez

7717 Adrian Sutil* +115 vs Esteban Gutierrez

#1) Sport : Motor Racing Other Sports
Selection : M. Chilton 5/25/2014 5:00AM - (PST) Money Line +185 for Game over Bianchi

7722 Marcus Ericsson* +215 vs Kamui Kobayashi



also these:

Monaco Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish - Jean-Eric Vergne +5500
Monaco Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish - Pastor Maldonado +20000
Monaco Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Jean-Eric Vergne +275

5 Dimes limited me to 10 bucks on the top 6 market



You have wagered $10.00 out of a total $10.00 on selection: Formula 1 Motor Racing Monaco Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish : Jean-Eric Vergne +275 . You will be permitted to wager again on this event once the limit is reset or the line has changed.

[Optional]

They had an error for that price earlier. Probably soemthing to do with that.

Odds came up for Vergne top 6 at 275/1 to start with

[Optional]

Small chance of rain in Monaco. Which would be lovely for the race spectacle but might interfere with our betting a little.


Vergne can crack a top 6 without some good luck. Starting 7th.

Honestly I expect him to finish 8th to 10th sort of range, but it won't take much more than a good start to see him nail a 6th too. He has the speed and extra skill for this track.

Vettel has some KERS problem, which if not fixed could see him miss a top 6. Both Alonso and Kimi have been fighting the Ferrari around the track and one or both could easily drop out of top 6 too. So chances of Vergne lucking in to a top 6 are there too.



Sun 5/25 7701 Nico Rosberg -150
8:00AM 7702 Lewis Hamilton +120

If you like Lewis to win this take the +185 win price instead of course. If you like Rosberg to win may as well take this instead.

No bet for me.


Sun 5/25 7703 Daniel Ricciardo -165
8:00AM 7704 Sebastian Vettel +135

Vettel has possible car problems and I think was a little slower than Dan anyway. Not worth the risk for this dog.

Meh, I guess -165 is near right. maybe -145 would be closer to fair odds.

No bet for me.

Sun 5/25 7705 Fernando Alonso -350
8:00AM 7706 Kimi Raikkonen +250

Well I don't think he will do it, but +250 is definitely better than fair odds for Kimi to beat Fred.

Waaayyyy too juicy to think about Alonso.

Sun 5/25 7707 Jean-Eric Vergne -165
8:00AM 7708 Daniil Kvyat +135

Similar to Ricciardo Vergne is probably near the right odds.

Might be a good one for a parlay at -165

Kyvat is a genuine talent (just turned 20) and did better than I expected in Quali but I'm not convinced he will able to make pace and miss the walls for an entire race distance here as yet.


Sun 5/25 7709 Kevin Magnussen -225
8:00AM 7710 Jenson Button +175

Button said in press conference that "Kevin is just faster than me here this weekend".

Dayum it makes it tough to back a driver that thinks that let alone says it out loud.

But apart from that Button is pretty good value against the rookie. It's not about who is fastest in the race here most of the time.


Sun 5/25 7711 Nico Hulkenberg -115
8:00AM 7712 Sergio Perez -115

Perez without a shadow of a doubt in my mind.


Sun 5/25 7713 Valtteri Bottas -195
8:00AM 7714 Felipe Massa +160

Don't trust the car or either driver enough to risk money on them the way they have performed in prac/quali.

Doubtful Massa can beat Bottas even if they both have clean races.


Sun 5/25 7715 Romain Grosjean -215
8:00AM 7716 Pastor Maldonado +170

Grosjean showed flashes of brilliant speed as usual around here. Chances of him not finishing this race like every other attempt he's made are about 50/50 I'd say.

On that basis we could take Maldonado, who has seemed more careful and maybe determined to not throw another race away. But no bet for me.


Sun 5/25 7717 Adrian Sutil +100
8:00AM 7718 Esteban Gutierrez -130

I'd take Sutil here. The weight problem he has against Guitierrez seems to be less of a factor around Monaco and the car seems to be well behaved which will also help Sutil I think.


Sun 5/25 7719 Jules Bianchi -230
8:00AM 7720 Max Chilton +170

Chilton has been way behind Bianchi in speed all weekend.


Sun 5/25 7721 Kamui Kobayashi -270
8:00AM 7722 Marcus Ericsson +210

Same as above. Kamui been clearly faster all weekend but maybe worth a small shot on Ericsson keeping out of trouble better than Kamui.


Sun 5/25 7723 Sebastian Vettel -250
8:00AM 7724 Fernando Alonso +190

The only reason you would take Alonso is if betting Vettel's car is going to continue it's KERS issues.

If we don't hear a clear confirmation from Red Bull that is fixed by race time, probably jump on Alonso late.


Sun 5/25 7725 Jean-Eric Vergne +120
8:00AM 7726 Kevin Magnussen -150

Vergne. Starting ahead of the rookie in a car that has shown better pace all weekend. And as we all know by now. Vergne is actually extra good on the track.

As long as he stays ahead from the start I think Vergne should win this.

Pound it.



Sun 5/25 7727 Sergio Perez -140
8:00AM 7728 Daniil Kvyat +110

Perez should win this. Kvyat over performed in quali whilst Perez and Hulkenburg under performed in the Force Indias.



Sun 5/25 7729 Nico Hulkenberg -160
8:00AM 7730 Jenson Button +130

Hulk should win this. Odds about perfect imho.







Not really that much good action to be found considering I have been feeling so strong about this race.

[MatI]

Nice work so far Opti. Sorry I havent been around to comment, man I love this night - best Sunday of the year! Sad to hear about Sir Jack, what a legend.

[MatI]

Couldnt find anything I liked at all for F1 except for race winning margin prop. Everything so one sided...

Winning Margin Under 6.0sec @ 1.68 - risking 1u

boring, i know but that is the only one I liked, still looking out for a nice h2h but doubt it

[Optional]

Good to see you Matt.

Black Jack had a long and great life. Hard to be sad about anything but not having him around anymore.

Yeah baby best night of the year!


I've bet a lot less than i expected I would too. Just not that many opportunities in the end.

Surprised you didnt parlay that with Yes Safety Car at least!

[Optional]

I ended up with

Vergne Top 6 +275
Kimi Fastest Lap +4000
Jean-Eric Vergne* +120 vs Kevin Magnussen
Sergio Perez* -115 vs Nico Hulkenberg

Parlayed the head to heads with Kurt > Villeneuve in 500 and Kurt > Smoke in 600 too. Probably a bit greedy going 4 legs but feel very confident in first 3

[Optional]

Vergne and Perez DNF... but the heartbreak is eased by Kimi nabbing fastest lap at 40/1

[yisman]

nice hit, I went to sleep so I didn't get to tail

hth not great, won with rosberg -150, hulk -102 over perez, and ericsson +215 over kobayashi

time for indycar

[yisman]

Marco Andretti vs Helio Castroneves
7751. Marco Andretti +145

James Hinchcliffe vs Ed Carpenter
7759. James Hinchcliffe +106


Ed Carpenter vs Will Power
7762. Will Power +100



Will Power vs Simon Pageneaud
7763. Will Power -131


Simon Pageneaud vs Ryan Hunter Reay
7766. Ryan Hunter Reay -121

#1) Sport : Motor Racing Other Sports
Selection : G. Rahal 5/25/2014 9:00AM - (PST) Money Line -110 for Game over Servia

Ryan Briscoe vs Charlie Kimball
7773. Ryan Briscoe -125



Charlie Kimball vs Justin Wilson
7776. Justin Wilson -133



Alex Tagliani vs Jacques Villeneuve
7778. Jacques Villeneuve +129




Alex Tagliani vs Townsend Bell
7780. Townsend Bell +106

#1) Sport : Motor Racing Other Sports
Selection : J. Hinchcliffe 5/25/2014 9:00AM - (PST) Money Line -125 for Game over Pagenaud



#1) Sport : Motor Racing Other Sports
Selection : J. Hildebrand 5/25/2014 9:00AM - (PST) Money Line +130 for Game over Newgarden

Sebastian Saavedra vs Martin Plowman
7784. Martin Plowman +111


MU [7792] C MUNOZ -160 (J HAWKSWORTH vrs C MUNOZ)

7794 Kurt Busch* -185 vs James Davison

7797 Marco Andretti* -165 vs Ed Carpenter


7800 Scott Dixon* -125 vs Will Power



Rahal top 3 +1400

[MatI]

really pumped for indycar, great work opti on kimi fastest lap, that had to come through eventually!

Ended up spending way more than i planned for indy, but its only once a year! gl guys

Indy race win
Power @ 11.00 - 1u
Dixon @ 10.00 - 1u
Pagenaud @ 18.5 - 1u
Wilson @ 51.00 - 0.5u
Aleshin @ 149.00 - 0.5u

top 3
Pagenaud @ 6.25 - 0.5u
Aleshin @ 34.00 - 0.5u

h2h
Tagliani @ 1.667 vs Villeneuve - 7u

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl opti and yisman..

opti, who are we on for indy 500 today? The answer might be in one of your novel long posts but alas, I'm far too high and lazy to weed through all that

[Optional]

really pumped for indycar, great work opti on kimi fastest lap, that had to come through eventually!

Ended up spending way more than i planned for indy, but its only once a year! gl guys

Indy race win
Power @ 11.00 - 1u
Dixon @ 10.00 - 1u
Pagenaud @ 18.5 - 1u
Wilson @ 51.00 - 0.5u
Aleshin @ 149.00 - 0.5u

top 3
Pagenaud @ 6.25 - 0.5u
Aleshin @ 34.00 - 0.5u

h2h
Tagliani @ 1.667 vs Villeneuve - 7u

Yeah I know! Lucky it was 40/1 as I must have bet him for fast lap 15 times over the last couple of years at least!

GL

gl opti and yisman..

opti, who are we on for indy 500 today? The answer might be in one of your novel long posts but alas, I'm far too high and lazy to weed through all that

I don't know much about Indy Jake. Pretty much following a poster named Trident for this one


Juan Pablo Montoya +700
Will Power +1000
Ryan Hunter Reay +1250
Kurt Busch +4400
Justin Wilson +5000


And went with these H2Hs

Will Power* -135 vs Simon Pageneaud
Kurt Busch* -175 vs Jacques Villeneuve
Ryan Briscoe* -130 vs Charlie Kimball

Also parlayed first two with Harvick and Kahne in 600

[Optional]

Boom

Hunter Reay wins plus 3-0 in the head to heads.

What a day.



How good was Kurt Busch to finish 6th?!

[MatI]

unreal run by kurt, also top drive by jpm and munoz too i thought.

Nice work opti, on fire!

[Optional]

[MatI]

You watching Practice Opti?

Only one bet for me so far:
Qual H2H, Hulkenberg @ 1.71 vs Perez 1u

[Optional]

You watching Practice Opti?

Only one bet for me so far:
Qual H2H, Hulkenberg @ 1.71 vs Perez 1u

went to bed early last night.

Nice work on quali bet.

Force Indias surprisingly down the fast lap times eh?

[MatI]

Yeah surprising they were so far back, but there wasnt much in it Nico missed out on Top 10 by half a tenth. He can on whatever strategy he wants from 11th, i think he should still get some more points.

[Optional]

Yeah surprising they were so far back, but there wasnt much in it Nico missed out on Top 10 by half a tenth. He can on whatever strategy he wants from 11th, i think he should still get some more points.

How confident do you feel about Williams? Think they will as good in race pace or have more tyre issues than others?


Did you have a bet on Indy race?

I took homers, Briscoe and Power

[MatI]

Williams' pace seems great but not sure, they both have been inconsistent in stringing together a perfect race. Not sure if podium is a realistic option.

GL with Power hope he comes back Ed looking strong late though. I couldnt pick a winner in this one, seemed way too open, just rolled over my f1 qual bet win onto JPM -145 over Munoz.

[Optional]

Well thats looking good.

Hoping for a good change at his last stop to come back

[Optional]

Oh wow... what an anti climax

[MatI]

what happened to Will? Was out for 20mins dropping the missus off at work. How did Will drop so far back?

[MatI]

ok seems like he got caught speeding on final stop?

[Optional]

Yeah pit speeding penalty.

Gutted!

1 more lap and he would have won anyway at least!

[MatI]

Yeah that is screwed. I loved Will's response after the race seemed to realised he threw that one away, glad he acknowledged he needs to stop making stupid mistakes.

Despite the result, glad to see Will so competitive on ovals this year. Finally turned the corner and racing up front on all types of tracks now.

[Optional]

Definitely.

Was almost funny as he railed against 4 pit lane speeding penalties in 5 races and then kind of trailed off to finally blaming himself I thought actually.

[MatI]

crazy, Nico available at +odds. He might not be as fast around Circut GV as Lewis but he is starting from clean side and will have first choice of stops if he can stay in front. Clearly has the upper hand going into the race...

[Optional]

crazy, Nico available at +odds. He might not be as fast around Circut GV as Lewis but he is starting from clean side and will have first choice of stops if he can stay in front. Clearly has the upper hand going into the race...

I think their respective records warrant the +odds.

I agree the dirty side of the track will probably see him unable to challenge at the first corner. But I just can't see Lewis staying behind for the 70 laps. I'm hoping for a ding dong battle.

Who will come third to sixth is even more interesting.

I've heard Alonso say the car is too slow too often when he comes out and drives it to a top 4 or 5 and stuffs me up. But thinking I might be able to discount them?

Hulk for a top 6 is about $3.50 on betfair. Thinking about that but want to see what odds 5D post for it first.

Still pondering head to heads. Wondering if the Renault cars will really be eaten up by all the mercs. perez $2.05 over Vergne is probably a good head to head if so?

I'd like to see an Alonso v Vettel matchup, thinking Alonso might be worth a shot if good odds.