AFL opening spreads

**benrama** · 09-11-11, 07:38 PM

Hawks, Sydney game is a really interesting one. Buddy, even if he plays has to be below 100%; for Sydney Mumford could be suspended and also Rohan who's been a star for them is battling injury, so the impact to both teams could be reasonably even.

I think the line at the moment is un-bettable until you figure out what is happening with the above players.

In terms of team statistics H2H, Hawthorn have a high disposals work-rate, and are well ahead of the Swans in total disposals/marks/kicks/handballs. I don't read much into that though, it's more a playing style statistic, and St Kilda also had the Swans dominated in this area.

My key stats for finals football are contested possessions, tackles, clearances and inside 50's. Inside 50's are even, but the other 3 stats clearly favour the Swans, and in contested marks they have 15% more per game on average than the Hawks. See http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...1=108&tid2=114

If Mumford and Rohan are good to go for the weekend and Buddy is out, then any line of Swans +10-12 has to be the play.

For Carlton/Eagles, I think the line is razor sharp. I've watched plenty of Eagles games this season, as they've been in that 4:40pm time slot quite a bit, and they are a beast at home, particularly in the 1st half. I haven't looked through all my plays but I'd say that WCE 1H line is hitting at 70% at least.

So my initial lean on that game is Eagles 1H.

**maroona** · 09-13-11, 06:38 AM

Where are you Gee?

You taking a break for the finals..

**astrobloke** · 09-15-11, 06:13 PM

I am not sure about tonights game.

The swans sort of take my fancy at the moment Hawthorne Vs Swannies.

anyone have a better read or lean?

**donkson** · 09-15-11, 06:41 PM

Hawthorn are no doubt the better team, but Sydney are such a good finals team and in good form that its very hard to pick.

fwiw I took Hawthorn -12.5 but I'm not particularly confident.

**TwoWays** · 09-15-11, 08:51 PM

I like Hawthorn by 20+. They will come out firing. Hopefully Rioli will rebound from his disappearing act last week.

**kingsr** · 09-15-11, 08:51 PM

This is something i normally wouldn't do but I like the look of it for a number of reasons...

Multi

Hawks 1-39
West Coast 1-39
Tigers 1-12
Bris 1-12

Combined dividend approx $35.00

Taking my chance with this for $50

**hawley** · 09-15-11, 10:47 PM

Can some of you sharp punters give me the AFL play tonight?

I got nothing as usual

**kingsr** · 09-15-11, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by hawley

Can some of you sharp punters give me the AFL play tonight?

I got nothing as usual

It's a tough one Hawley...I have Hawks to win SU and by 1-39. There's be been big money coming in for Hawks SU and spread. It seems Franklin may be fit.

**hawley** · 09-15-11, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

It's a tough one Hawley...I have Hawks to win SU and by 1-39. There's be been big money coming in for Hawks SU and spread. It seems Franklin may be fit.

Who is Franklin

Ha no worries may find some stuff to multi them with. Unfortunately it may have to be the Tigers.

**kingsr** · 09-15-11, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by hawley

Who is Franklin

Ha no worries may find some stuff to multi them with. Unfortunately it may have to be the Tigers.

Franklin - a solid goal kicker, highest number of goal kicks this season. Plays in the forward line. Is considered by some as a game breaker type player.

**WillC** · 09-16-11, 04:23 AM

Franklin clearly below 100% in warmups ... don't know why hes playing but I suppose the medics know more than me.

I can't see a blowout happening so debating whether to go Syd +15.5 or Hawks 1-39. Leaning Syd atm

**donkson** · 09-23-11, 02:37 AM

zomg pinny has a total up for tonight's game. Won't be playing it but hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

**Ace_of_Spades** · 09-23-11, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by donkson

zomg pinny has a total up for tonight's game. Won't be playing it but hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

Been asking them for years. They finally posted NRL totals, glad to see AFL.

**Gee** · 09-23-11, 06:16 PM

well i let this thread die

sorry about that.

i haven't really been betting much pregame these finals. a lot of spreads and totals live when i've seen how the game has been going. I've also been parlaying the favs ML or teasing them into other sports, which has been quite good. Its been quite a good final series.

Anyway, two games left. Pies look fallible don't they? This one will open as a pickem if the Cats win well today, which I think they will. I was at the game a subi and the eagles were great, but i'm not putting too much store in that. Eagles had a great spot there and off for the cats and it wasn't in melbourne! Cats -28.5 for 1x. Can't go any bigger on that kind of spread in a prelim. I'll be live betting the game though.

**brettels** · 09-24-11, 04:47 AM

Im already on geelong ML, tightest grand final odds in a long time.

**kingsr** · 09-24-11, 04:55 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Im already on geelong ML, tightest grand final odds in a long time.

I like it, Geelong should MURDER them....but No Steve Johnson!!!

**brettels** · 09-24-11, 05:09 AM

from what i have read there is still a chance (very slight chance) that stevey j could still play. Without him geelong will still win.

**TwoWays** · 09-24-11, 07:16 AM

I have the Cats 4-1 to win the premiership. Basically, I can make a 4x wager on Pies and at most break even. Don't know why I'm even contemplating this scenario.

**donkson** · 09-24-11, 07:50 PM

Johnson will play.

Won't be making a bet until the teams come out.

**brettels** · 09-24-11, 09:23 PM

Yep, scans reveal injury isn't as bad as initially thought, less damage than Franklins injury. See ya next week Steve J.

**Gee** · 09-25-11, 08:00 PM

Nice win for Cats as expected on Saturday

Yeah, it basically opened about even. Pies as a slight favourite. Won't last. This game will close at $1.91 IMO.

I will prob have a bit on Geelong pre-game, then bet it live again...

On another note, does anyone like anything for the Brownlow tonight? You can get Ablett for $1.01 for best Gold Coast poll getter. It is literally free money

My capping style does not involve a lot of individual player analysis though, so I have no idea who is going to win. I view it a bit similar to Melbourne cup. Just throw a few $$ down for the sake of it and don't really expect to get much back.

**donkson** · 09-26-11, 04:00 AM

The Brownlow is seriously crushable but its really a whole year thing.

**Gee** · 09-28-11, 06:13 PM

I agree donkson, but I don't pay attention throughout the year. I am not a dream teamer or a supercoacher or anything like that. My mate who follows it through the year and had about $600 in bets cleaned up this year. I will just tail him in the future.

I am on Cats -113 for 3x (got it on Tuesday). It'll keep moving, so get cats now if you want a reasonable price.

On another note, the only low juice sportsbook in australia has folded. Not a good sign. Aussies just want vanilla books with nice colours:

Dear Readbet Customers,

Due to new business opportunities presenting themselves, I have made the decision to cease trading my online business www.Readbet.com.au. I will still continue my on-track business and look forward to seeing you during the Spring Carnival.

Please note that we will continue trading over the weekend with Monday the 3rd of October 2011 being our final day of trading. Following this date, the website will be available until the 15th of October 2011 for you to request a withdrawal of your funds, pending having met appropriate verification requirements.

Please note that from the 16th of October 2011, unclaimed funds will be held in trust until verification requirements are met and withdrawals requested.

I would like to thank you for your loyalty and support. It has been an exciting and fulfilling journey; however I look forward to my new venture with great enthusiasm.

Kind regards,

Kathryn Read

**benrama** · 09-28-11, 07:36 PM

Shame to see Readbet go, but to be honest they didn't really provide a compelling proposition. Their lines were out too late, they had very few betting options compared to the other books, they covered only a few of the sports, etc, etc.

If you are going to replicate a Pinny type proposition you need to do it properly, I still think there's an opportunity there, but it could well be that Pinny starts to lift their game on Aussie sports betting options (just look at how many options they have for the AFL final), and makes this a moot point.

**maroona** · 09-28-11, 07:41 PM

Looks like it could be wet for Grand final day -

Melbourne area

Partly cloudy. Showers with possible hail, becoming less widespread by early evening. Winds west to southwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h tending southerly up to 35 km/h during the morning.

Probably a bonus for Collingwood, they've proven themselves a good wet weather team in the past, or at least it makes what was always going to be a close game closer..or maybe its just wishful thinking, haha..

**maroona** · 09-28-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Shame to see Readbet go, but to be honest they didn't really provide a compelling proposition. Their lines were out too late, they had very few betting options compared to the other books, they covered only a few of the sports, etc, etc.

If you are going to replicate a Pinny type proposition you need to do it properly, I still think there's an opportunity there, but it could well be that Pinny starts to lift their game on Aussie sports betting options (just look at how many options they have for the AFL final), and makes this a moot point.

Think bet365 will shake things up when start operating with their aus licence, be interesting to see what they offer

**Gee** · 09-28-11, 08:31 PM

bet365 is a shitty book with shitty prices, but good live betting and number of markets.

i don't care so much about depth of markets and live betting will be gone when it comes to australia.

i will be withdrawing my funds from there if they lose live betting. they won't shake things up at all IMO. they love their juice and is how they make so much money.

Ben: i reached the same conclusion and just use pinny instead, but it was good to know you have a local low juice book that is easy to get money in and out of....

**donkson** · 09-28-11, 08:34 PM

lol I'd never heard of readbet, Pinnalce and Centrebet provide a near perfect mix right now. Just a shame Pinny isn't a bit quicker with lines.

I honestly don't think the weather makes a difference to the game, both are very good in the wet.

**maroona** · 09-28-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Gee

bet365 is a shitty book with shitty prices, but good live betting and number of markets.

i don't care so much about depth of markets and live betting will be gone when it comes to australia.

i will be withdrawing my funds from there if they lose live betting. they won't shake things up at all IMO. they love their juice and is how they make so much money.

Ben: i reached the same conclusion and just use pinny instead, but it was good to know you have a local low juice book that is easy to get money in and out of....

Regardless it seems to me bet365 are big on marketing themselves heavily so will no doubt be offering plenty of incentives to suck people in such as free bets and bonuses, should be enough to get the local books more than a little concerned

**Gee** · 09-28-11, 10:30 PM

Oh yeah, they will do that maroona. Hopefully it shakes things up a bit...

I am relaly going to miss live betting though

pinnacle and centrebet are a good combo, but there are a few things i don't like about centrebet and don't intend on playing there again in a hurry. My main problem is they send almost every bet i make for approval, which can take 2-3 mins and often will be limited :/

**maroona** · 09-28-11, 11:45 PM

Yeah live betting online would be great here, don't think that will ever happen.

Off topic, but just saw some of the best baseball I think i've ever seen, wow, incredible stuff..

**brettels** · 09-29-11, 12:00 AM

Bet365 may pull some strings in Australia for live betting, at least I hope they do

**Domestic** · 09-29-11, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by maroona

Yeah live betting online would be great here, don't think that will ever happen. Off topic, but just saw some of the best baseball I think i've ever seen, wow, incredible stuff..

You can live bet with Pinnacle on a lot of sports from Australia.

Also check out the bonus centrebet is giving this week.

**maroona** · 09-29-11, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

You can live bet with Pinnacle on a lot of sports from Australia. Also check out the bonus centrebet is giving this week.

Really!! I've never noticed Pinny betting live on any Aus sports

**Gee** · 09-29-11, 01:55 AM

you can't live bet pinny on aussie sport as far as i know and they are my main bookie.

examples??