Yeah no AFL live betting on Pinny.
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What are you thoughts on these:
1) AFL Half Time/Full Time Double : Geelong/Collingwood + 700
2) AFL Margin Betting U/O 39.5 Points: Collingwood 1-39 Points +170
3) Either Team Under 15.5 Points +180
I dont know shit about AFL, these were given to me - But not keen to blind bet them without consulting this thread
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If you like Collingwood to win, then No.2 from those 3 would be the best play.
For me It's Gee 1-39. but everyone is divided on this one so go with your gut, most people have this one at 50/50 and rightly so. Me personally I have Gee winning 65% of the time in this spot.Comment -
Exodus. If you are going to bet 1, then bet Pies/Cats HT/FT as well, getting you effectively +600 on it if either win... The stats with these two teams historically and how I have capped the season suggest that the bet is probably +EV, but I'm not great at calculating that on props and do not have a huge database.What are you thoughts on these: 1) AFL Half Time/Full Time Double : Geelong/Collingwood + 700 2) AFL Margin Betting U/O 39.5 Points: Collingwood 1-39 Points +170 3) Either Team Under 15.5 Points +180 I dont know shit about AFL, these were given to me - But not keen to blind bet them without consulting this thread
I don't like the u/39.5 margin bets, particularly when you have the pies at +money anyway. If you like the bet, just take the pies. Although, if the pies win, they prob don't win by 40+... I just like Pies +115 as it is.
I hate the each team under 15.5 bets, mainly because I have never done the math on them. Maybe someone else can help here. The thing I usually don't like about this type of bet on AFL is both teams are capable of kicking 3 goals in 2 mins to mush it in junk time.Comment -
there are actually more ppl on geelong hence the line movement from collingwood favouritsm to geelong. haven't done my research yet but if i had to make a forced lean at this point in time i'd go collingwood.Last edited by dRavidC; 09-29-11, 11:49 PM.Comment -
Exodus, I am personally playing the under 15.5 points bet at +180, though I'm not super confident in it. My thinking is that these two teams are very closely matched and I expect any team behind at the end to press intensively to get the scoreline close.
I agree with Gee that these bets are generally very -EV, particularly for teams that can turn it on like the Cats and Pies can.
An added reason I've made this bet is just so I can cheer for a "good game" for the grand final, it's one game I generally find no edge in either way so may as well enjoy my money - I don't support either team so a close game is all I'm after.
If you like the Pies, then you could split your bet 50/50 on the ML and 1-39, I think this is a +EV bet.
The HT/FT ones are speculators, but Collingwood won 20 1H's this year to Geelong's 16, and they are evenly matched for the 2H, so I think you've got the right speculator.Comment -
Just thought about this some more. I don't mind that HT/FT bet either, but only when combined with a live hedging strategy.
i.e.
Put
1 Unit on Coll/Geel at +600
1 Unit on Geel/Coll at +700
And, regardless of who is leading at half-time, as long as the other team gets close some time in the 2H (or, ideally, leads), then you put 3 UNITS on them at as close to $1.92 odds as you can and you've just locked in 2-3 units of profit. Or if you want to gamble some more, put a live bet on to cover if the half time leader wins at full time, and you're free-rolling the rest of the game.
I like this, with the only logistical hassle of finding out some way to call up my Aussie book during the game and not make it look obvious to the other 10 people watching the game with me
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I heard that 85% of sportingbet's taking were on geelong. Pretty insane if true.
I agree with Gee about the margin bets, 1-39s can probably be +EV in some spots (tomorrow could well be one) but in general they are a bit of a crap shoot that are pretty damn hard to estimate an edge in, especially the really narrow markets like the either u15.5.Comment -
GL.
I played Coll 1-39 1u
under 158.5 2uComment -
Benrama, I see you looking for action simply for viewing pleasure. So here's my suggestion:
1. Pick a side, stop sitting on the fence!
2. Play that side to win by 1-24, since you do like the game to be a close one. Odds are Coll 3.70 Gee 3.55.
3. Don't bet it too big, cos you don't wanna be too emotional in front of your 'non-betting' friends/family LOLComment -
AFL GRAND FINAL GAME
GEELONG V COLLINGWOOD:
The two best teams of the year clash..... Who ever wins I see a big margin victory either way.... I like the way Geelong have handled themselves this campaign...
They have beaten Collingwood twice this year.... Forget about the big 94 point victory some 4 weeks ago.. Collingwood TANKED that game.. But I'm thinking the CATS can strike back again today...
GEELONG ML and MARGIN OVER 39.5 pts..................
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Peter it is very wet in Melb, it's pissing rain as we speak. Goals may be harder to come by.Comment -
Did he just say some dude put 500k on the pies?Comment -
Please geelong win this, it only makes sense. Put a play on over 160.5 yesterday before i knew about the weather
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You obviously don't live in Melbourne then.
Shit weather since Wednesday and getting worse.Comment -
You can read into that bet as you please...for me, this is a stunt to get money on Coll, since most money has been for Gee. Books need to even it up somehow, so by announcing a punter put 500k (which is INSANE) on Coll, will influence the Public to bet on Coll.
Not me though, I love my Gee bet even more now after that announcement.Comment -
Haha, thanks mate!
1) I'm going to be surrounded by Pies supporter, the pain of secretly supporting Geelong would detract from my enjoyment, and I think Geelong win here so can't pick the Pies
2) I looked at playing the U24 line but will take the higher odds for U15.5
3) Too bloody right! I will have one decent sized bet on the game but it's a strategic one, will be posting in my thread (edited to add: scrap that, couldn't be fked trying to live bet during the game, sticking with a 1X bet on the U15.5)
Enjoy the game boys!Last edited by benrama; 09-30-11, 10:28 PM.Comment -
Lmao good luck bro! I'm on the same side...hoping to cash!Comment -
Took the Cats as well 1-39 and ML, have had success tailing you guys, benrama and some others! Plus, I think Cats will win anyway.Comment -
Very happy! Been a great year. Now I don't know what to do with myself
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Brettels you're a genius.
It was close in the end, I couldn't watch because ch10 don't show how much time's left, had more on 1-39!Comment -
Well done on the margin LTS
I think Hawkins deserved the norm smithComment -
Yeah I agree, started the momentum for the Cats.Comment -
Thanks for the advice boys!!!
Played both sides!! Geelong/Collingwood & Collingwood/Geelong! Put 2 units on each and made over 8 units!!!
How did the other two bets go?
2) AFL Margin Betting U/O 39.5 Points: Collingwood 1-39 Points +170
3) Either Team Under 15.5 Points +180
As stated I have no idea how AFL works, was just blind betting! CheersComment -
2 and 3 lostComment -
Cracker of a game! Really remarkable how Cats came good at the right time - they certainly proved me wrong.
Even the army of Pies supporters watching the game with me weren't their usual cynical, swearing selves - think they knew they were outclassed here.
Been a highly profitable AFL season yet again, nice thread Gee, let's do it all again next year! I'm working on an AFL model for next year based on "fantasy points" and some key stats that I think will be the nuts, so looking forward to putting it into practice.
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Not even the refs could get Coll over the line! Very biased reffing imo. Gee got the raw end of the stick HARD but still rose above and beyond!Comment -
Yeah umpires were shocking, there would have been huge stories if Collingwood won by a goal or something.Comment -
Collingwood shouldn't have even been in the Grand Final.Comment -
What a great grand final!
won everything i bet and live bet too. Ended up about +700 on the game.
great end to the season. I'll finally update my spreadsheet soon and post up how the season finished (haven't done since round 22, but only made about 5-6 bets since then)... was about +70 units at 62% though.
See you all next season! Who is going to pick up the torch and run w/ their own thread next season as well?Comment -
I'll start one titled AFL 2012, not putting my name on it want other peoples opinions like this thread which went well.Comment