AFL opening spreads

**Gee** · 08-24-11, 07:21 PM

Melb have already moved to 45.5 on centrebet. I think they will prob close at 47.5.

**donkson** · 08-25-11, 02:03 AM

Are you guys going to get into some Brownlow bets?

**brettels** · 08-25-11, 02:24 AM

No brownlow for me! By the whispers I think the umps may have rigged another Judd fund raiser!

**donkson** · 08-25-11, 06:32 AM

Yeah I won't be betting on the outright, but some props.

**brettels** · 08-25-11, 10:32 AM

i see what you meant about freo's outs. ouch

**Gee** · 08-25-11, 05:49 PM

Yeah, I'm going to be on the Pies tonight I think.

Freo have 17 players injured/out! Anyone available gets a game. Freo's season is officially over as well and that has to be deflating.

This is going to be a belting of epic proportions. I don't like big spreads, so its only going to be a 1.5x play. Again, I think this closes higher.

**GroundnPound** · 08-25-11, 07:17 PM

On the other side Gee

**donkson** · 08-25-11, 07:31 PM

Why are you taking freo out of interest?

**benrama** · 08-25-11, 10:35 PM

There is no possible angle to take Freo except for pride in their final home game. I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep it close for the first part of the game, but I expect Collingwood to blow them out of the water in the 2H - if I was going go take Freo it would only be the 1H line. I'm on the Pies as well at -69.5, and I expect that line to keep rising prior to the game.

If by any chance Freo are close at half-time, I will be doubling up on the Pies to cover the 2H spread.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-25-11, 11:32 PM

O/U at 187.5? Mayhap a little low?

I took Pies as well, at first 70 points seemed risky at Perth even for Collingwood, but Freo are now practically a seconds side. You guys also made me confident on picking the Pies.

**GroundnPound** · 08-26-11, 04:25 AM

$200 on Fremantle +69.5
$200 on Manly -4

**donkson** · 08-26-11, 05:00 AM

I'm not really confident on the pies bet, even though I took it.

**benrama** · 08-26-11, 05:13 AM

Maxwell out for the Pies, and yes, it shouldn't be a confident bet as Pies have little motivation to go for the jugular. That said, they are still fighting for places in the top side and Malthouse doesn't accept less than 100% effort.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-26-11, 05:26 AM

Would you be more nervous betting on Freo? I would. If Pies take this game seriously, they should cover comfortably. I guess we're betting on intent.

**brettels** · 08-26-11, 05:33 AM

i've accepted some lower odds tonight to be safe, safer, if there is such a thing? PIES 40+

**benrama** · 08-26-11, 05:42 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Would you be more nervous betting on Freo? I would. If Pies take this game seriously, they should cover comfortably. I guess we're betting on intent.

Absolutely, I'd be nervous on Freo even if they were ahead at 3Q time

Don't like betting on outclassed teams, particularly when they are undermanned. Hope no-one went overboard with the betting anyway.

**donkson** · 08-26-11, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Maxwell out for the Pies, and yes, it shouldn't be a confident bet as Pies have little motivation to go for the jugular. That said, they are still fighting for places in the top side and Malthouse doesn't accept less than 100% effort.

This is what tipped me to actually making the bet, the Brisbane game was a let down in terms of effort, Malthouse would be very unlikely to let it happen twice in a row at this time of the year.

Looking ok at the moment anyway.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-26-11, 08:28 AM

I don't think I'm going to bet on large spreads any more. That was fairly close.

**brettels** · 08-26-11, 08:17 PM

don't see how a cowboys, hawks, cats multi couldn't be a winner, low odds though.

**benrama** · 08-26-11, 08:50 PM

Brettels - you can play a team in a multi at $1.10 - $1.20 in the AFL because over 4 quarters it really is hard for a poor team to beat a good team. NRL is entirely different, a try in the NRL, if converted, is like a swing of 4-5 goals in the AFL (as ~40 points are scored in NRL and ~180 in AFL), and you can easily have these occur from an intercept, lucky bounce off the high ball, etc. Teams are more evenly matched as well, so on any day a heavy favourite can lose.

So in the NRL really anything can happen, I lost with storm in a multi earlier this season paying about $1.10, I had them in about 6 multis as the final leg, learnt my lesson then. People playing the Dragons recently would have experienced the same.

So stay away from those short priced NRL teams in a multi!

**Gee** · 08-26-11, 09:26 PM

I think I lost a few posts.

Nice 2x winner last night.

I'm going to play Hawks/Bulldogs o/186.5 today for 1x. Not touching Sydney game with Cats having nothing to gain... (cats in multi - they don't lose, but no idea if they cover). I have Crows -18.5 for 2x and Melb -42.5 for 2x tomorrow, so really waiting until then. Today's games are too hard. Too many variables I don't know how to factor in.

**GroundnPound** · 08-26-11, 10:34 PM

Gee your runnning hot brother. I am debating with myself on whether to hit up Hawthorn -41.5 or Sydney +46.5 but am leaning Swans..

**GroundnPound** · 08-26-11, 11:08 PM

2x Swans +46.5 @ Cats

**Lookingtostart** · 08-26-11, 11:32 PM

Hawks/Doggies under 198.5 x1 @1.85

**benrama** · 08-27-11, 12:51 AM

And this is why you don't take Geelong in multi's - they look pathetic today, only Sydney came to play.

**donkson** · 08-27-11, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Brettels - you can play a team in a multi at $1.10 - $1.20 in the AFL because over 4 quarters it really is hard for a poor team to beat a good team.!

Originally posted by benrama

And this is why you don't take Geelong in multi's - they look pathetic today, only Sydney came to play.

ok.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-27-11, 01:43 AM

I trust we all lost our multis today...

**brettels** · 08-27-11, 03:45 AM

saints and roos last time they played the total was 149. given they are both playing for something tonight, i'd suggest it will likely go under the 172.5 given by the books. i'm not playing it or any market in this match tonight but thats my two cents.

**Gee** · 08-27-11, 03:49 AM

fail on over and parlay

Hot run ends.

Taking Eagles -20.5 for 2x tonight.

I'm going to enjoy the North/Saints game. Should be a cracker, but no idea who is going to win. My lean would be the Saints...

I'm also going to play All Blacks -5 tonight.

**brettels** · 08-27-11, 03:53 AM

saints will win in a close one, i think its been raining in brisbane and the ground will be soggy. eagles under 40

**brettels** · 08-27-11, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by benrama

And this is why you don't take Geelong in multi's - they look pathetic today, only Sydney came to play.

Originally posted by benrama

Brettels - you can play a team in a multi at $1.10 - $1.20 in the AFL because over 4 quarters it really is hard for a poor team to beat a good team. NRL is entirely different, a try in the NRL, if converted, is like a swing of 4-5 goals in the AFL (as ~40 points are scored in NRL and ~180 in AFL), and you can easily have these occur from an intercept, lucky bounce off the high ball, etc. Teams are more evenly matched as well, so on any day a heavy favourite can lose.

So in the NRL really anything can happen, I lost with storm in a multi earlier this season paying about $1.10, I had them in about 6 multis as the final leg, learnt my lesson then. People playing the Dragons recently would have experienced the same.

So stay away from those short priced NRL teams in a multi!

lol

this you?

**Brian891** · 08-27-11, 06:19 AM

i just cannot grasp this sport or i am biggest jinx ever i swear. figured eagles have everything to play for, big spot for them, and they come out flat and struggle against a team they should beat to clinch. hope they can finish strong, but man oh man....

**Lookingtostart** · 08-27-11, 06:36 AM

I have been watching Brisbane games in the past weeks, (except for this week because they're playing the Eagles

), if you had seen their previous games you would have known they are quite good. In their games against North and Geelong they were screwed by the umpires (words cannot describe how biased the umps were) and you have to take that into account as well.

I find that I'm very good at predicting games if I have seen both teams' previous matches. Also keep your eye on Adelaide.

**donkson** · 08-27-11, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

i just cannot grasp this sport or i am biggest jinx ever i swear. figured eagles have everything to play for, big spot for them, and they come out flat and struggle against a team they should beat to clinch. hope they can finish strong, but man oh man....

There were a fair few points pointing to a good show from Brisbane. Perth - Brisbane is a long trip, the longest in the AFL. WC had 4th basically sealed with Adelaide next week at home. Brisbane are also a much tougher team than people give them credit for, they're the only 'bottom' club that simply doesn't give up.

**benrama** · 08-27-11, 09:13 PM

Well, Geelong fked us all yesterday it looked like, and donkson/brettels, I said it was hard for a "poor team" to beat a good team over 4 quarters, no way Sydney should not have been put in the poor team category. I think Cats 29 unbeaten streak at Skilled swayed me, but they looked really pathetic yesterday while Sydney gave it 110%. Unfortunately I chose the wrong time to go large on a multi with Cats and Hawks in it - c'est la vie, live and learn, all that shit.

Whatever the ML is for the Pies next week I'll be hitting it in multis and maybe even straight up, Cats are over-rated for the title, I thought that when I watched them lose to Essendon live at Etihad.

As for today, I give Richmond a good chance to get up against Adelaide so will probably take the points start, but the other two games I wouldn't watch or bet on if you paid me. NRL games are the entertainment of the afternoon.