AFL opening spreads

kingsr · 08-21-11, 01:35 AM

Degenerate alert lol

I saw your post earlier about not playing any of the late games and I thought to myself hmmm I bet he comes in with a play for at least one of them! You out done yourself, you played both! Lmfao!

GroundnPound · 08-21-11, 01:42 AM

Just put $600 on richmond -4.5

GroundnPound · 08-21-11, 02:16 AM

Stupid fuckingg umpire they throw Reiwoldt without the ball no free andthen a free for deliberate for the Demonbs 12 point swing

GroundnPound · 08-21-11, 03:33 AM

**** richmondd shittest team in the comp

GroundnPound · 08-21-11, 03:37 AM

From up 26 to down 8why do i waste money on these fvcking witss

Gee · 08-21-11, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Degenerate alert lol I saw your post earlier about not playing any of the late games and I thought to myself hmmm I bet he comes in with a play for at least one of them! You out done yourself, you played both! Lmfao!

And cash both of them

I know I say this every weekend, but I really didn't intend on playing these games today, but the more I started capping them the more I saw an advantage for both the Bulldogs and Tigers. Generally speaking though, I don't think games between teams completely out of it are great value. Not only did I make a play on both games, I cashed 4x on them! I never thought I'd bet that much on them.

Nice hit GnP! Huge weekend for us

GroundnPound · 08-21-11, 04:25 AM

Yecongrats bro you didn't get anything wrong did you?

That was my biggest bet in over a year on Richmond was so sweet watching them duds melbourne lose.

brettels · 08-21-11, 04:27 AM

I know another person who is extremely happy right now!!! Wanna take a guess who that would be?

rjc · 08-21-11, 06:03 AM

Nice calls again Gee !
Massive weekend, cheers.

donkson · 08-21-11, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by donkson

Over on Melbourne/Richmond

Thanks for playing.

Lookingtostart · 08-21-11, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by brettels

I know another person who is extremely happy right now!!! Wanna take a guess who that would be?

Dean Bailey?

brettels · 08-21-11, 07:37 PM

Haha him and me both!

Anyone think Newcastle for the upset

goty0405 · 08-21-11, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by brettels

Haha him and me both!

Anyone think Newcastle for the upset

I think anywhere above 2.40 would be a +EV bet. My prediction model has them a 42% chance and I think that looks pretty accurate. Current bookie prices (~2.25) are just a little short in my opinion but Betfair is much higher (~2.38) and if late money comes on Brisbane they could drift into good value territory.

Having said that I'm looking to get on the Broncos if the late money goes the other way and I can get them 1.73+.

Gee · 08-21-11, 10:06 PM

Still getting over the weekend. Amazing.

I'm taking Broncos -3.5 for 1x.

Reasoning? Centrebet email: "It's time for a Knight in shining armour!" - now watch it go to 4.5

brettels · 08-22-11, 12:27 AM

I've backed broncos -2.5 1.80

Gee · 08-22-11, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Still getting over the weekend. Amazing. I'm taking Broncos -3.5 for 1x. Reasoning? Centrebet email: "It's time for a Knight in shining armour!" - now watch it go to 4.5

Moved to 4

and these centrebet emails. Basically telling you which way it is going to move...

jonorussell · 08-22-11, 02:37 AM

It's raining. Both good teams. I put $50 on the draw at half or full time paying 8/1. Good luck to all.

GroundnPound · 08-22-11, 02:49 AM

Am on Knights +3.5 for 0.5x very small bet

Gee · 08-22-11, 05:39 AM

Broncos win and cover. I don't believe in jinxes. This isn't changing in the next 10 mins. I just can't lose at the moment

Going to be a nice payday at the end of the month.

Heres the weekend's spreadsheet. It obviously doesn't include the extra units I had on the Bulldogs or North in parlays (the 1.5x plays that would have been 2.5x plays if the ML wasn't the last leg in a parlay).

Lookingtostart · 08-22-11, 06:26 AM

So here's this weeks:

(no need to give points)

Anything Catch your eye? Keep in mind that Freo have 7 out from last weekend's match: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsartic...7/default.aspx

Gee · 08-22-11, 06:54 AM

Thanks for doing that. It sure is quiet in here without Alt!

Some of those lines are pretty tough (you know how I hate big spreads and shit teams, until the last minute!), but I'm going to like the Cats TT whatever that opens at, Crows, Melb, Essendon. I think Melb looked like they tried really hard for Viney on yesterday, but were let down. They are a very good team at the MCG, where Suns players haven't played too much and I think the Suns are done for the year. As much as I hate to say this, I think Melb will be a decent play.

Those are my early thoughts and subject to change, but a few of these spreads look alright. I hope I'm not getting cocky, but I think i'm getting a feel for where each of these teams are at toward the end of the season.

donkson · 08-22-11, 07:41 AM

Melb 60+ is at $3.05

brettels · 08-22-11, 07:48 AM

freo +60 looks good, i think the pies might alternate resting there stars or rest all of them. they will either do that or both geelong and collingwood will rest all there best players for the last round vs each other. who knows but its a good possibility.

like the melbourne line too. same reasons as gee!

Lookingtostart · 08-22-11, 08:10 AM

The only line I liked were Crows, but now I'm confident on Melbourne too. Hmm... Dons as well. I'm going to take my own advice (should have done so many rounds ago) and fade the port line no matter what!

Lookingtostart · 08-22-11, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by brettels

freo +60 looks good

Have you read about their outs?!

donkson · 08-22-11, 08:38 AM

Yeah.. wouldn't go near Freo, they've given up on the season now.

brettels · 08-22-11, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Have you read about their outs?!

Not yet, will see if collingwood makes it an even field when teams are announced

Gee · 08-22-11, 06:59 PM

Freo at home should play with a bit of pride though. If this was in Melb, a 100 point line wouldn't be surprising, as I expect them to come out with all the pride they have shown over their existence. I don't know if I'd touch such a big spread in this spot though, but Pies should cruise. If they were smart, they'd use this as a tune up game.

On the Melbourne play, the more I think about it, the more it won't be more than 2x. I think they play with some pride vs gold coast and show the effort they showed in the 2nd half vs richmond, but that is what you are betting on. The club is in disarray and there is always the prospect that they won't turn up.

One thing I need to check and I don't really know the answer to is if there are any draft pick implications if the Demons lose the last two games. I'm pretty sure there aren't, but its an area of AFl i really need to do more work on. That being said, you can't bet on the draft and it is what it is... I don't incorporate tanking into this, but it'll be rare for me to bet on a bottom side to cover anyway!

donkson · 08-22-11, 11:25 PM

No one can get any priority picks this year. Even if there was Melbourne wouldn't tank v Gold Coast.

bennyt · 08-23-11, 12:04 AM

freo game reminds me of when they rested all those players last year against the hawks. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 100pt loss.

(Reyes) · 08-23-11, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Australians can only live bet over the phone I believe

Gee does it bet365 will fully get rid of live betting or just block it to australian players or ip address?

oh

Gee · 08-23-11, 03:41 AM

hawley: I can't see how bet365 could be licensed and based in australia and not conform to our laws. There will be no live betting for australian players. They figure they can make more money from our sheep than from us live bettors. Probably fair enough. You could easily use a VPN to get around it if it was an IP thing only, but they may want proof you were in the place you are proxying in from. The IP is the easy part. I know betfair would be asking questions, but who knows what attitude bet365 would take to it. I wouldn't want to be the first to find out. Bet365 are giving me the shits right now though, waiting on a payout since mid last week. moneybookers should take 2 minutes, like it did with sportbet last night.

Anyway, give bwin a go for AFL. It looks decent for live betting and market selection (like a bet365 cousin) and has some things 365 doesn't. e.g. last weekend it had the Kangaroos game live, when bet365 didn't. Either that or it was the Pies game. One of the two. Bet365 had one and bwin had the other.

Gee · 08-23-11, 06:27 PM

OK, I've made a few early plays for this weekend. I'm not as confident as I was last week when I looked at the lines and thought "

"

I have played a rare 4 teamer: Eagles/Crows/Melb/Cats at about +120 for 1.5x and Melb -42.5 for 2x (in case this one moves against me, but I suspect it will stay firm).

brettels · 08-23-11, 07:27 PM

ok, who can make a full list of who allows live betting online for AFL and or NRL?? we all know bet365 and bwin, what can be added to the list?

Gee · 08-24-11, 04:23 AM

Thats it for AFL as far as i know. I haven't looked for a while, but they were the only options for AFL when I looked into it about 18 months ago before the start of season 2010.

I don't care so much for NRL, because if they have AFL, they will almost certainly have NRL.