AFL opening spreads

**Alt75** · 08-15-11, 01:53 AM

Round 22

**Lookingtostart** · 08-15-11, 04:36 AM

I like the Adelaide line, Hawks should win by more than a goal, North should thrash freo. If anything, I think freo's going to get flogged.

**donkson** · 08-15-11, 04:37 AM

Melbourne as dogs seems odd to me, seems like an overreaction to Richmond's game which wasn't that amazing.

Agree about the Adelaide line.

**brettels** · 08-15-11, 08:28 AM

i like the saints money line, so the line is nice and short too. essendon +22.5 could be worth a shot along with freo +21.5!

**donkson** · 08-15-11, 09:02 PM

Essendon in Perth = no thanks.

**brettels** · 08-16-11, 02:30 AM

It's that time of year, I wouldn't rule it out!

**benrama** · 08-16-11, 02:30 AM

Only line I like is the ongoing money train of West Coast 1H, and will probably take them for the full game too.

**Gee** · 08-16-11, 06:14 PM

I like the Hawks line too.. something about the blues this season that I don't like in this blockbuster game.

Crows, Eagles, North and Saints all look very playable too! Probably square thinking; early leans often are.

On another note, bet365 is about to go to absolute shite. You all would have received the email that they are applying for an Australian license. This would be a disaster. An Australian license would mean they are no longer able to offer live betting on the internet, as that is against our laws. It means we would have to move to the other euro live books (there are quite a few, bwin being the other well known one). At least it'll hold out till the end of this AFL season, but I'm not holding my breath for future years.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-17-11, 01:04 AM

Yes, I got the email. Doesn't affect me as of yet, since they're not suspending the sports account, but I didn't know about live betting

**Gee** · 08-17-11, 05:19 AM

Yeah, if they take up and Aus license they have to follow our rules, which means no live betting online - only phone in. I don't get why I can bet inplay on some races on betfair then

I can't see why they didn't just buy a smaller bookie or set up an affiliate in Aus, like paddy power buying ias and sportsbet. I suppose they are smart and its a trade-off. They figure that they can throw lots of money at the Australian market due to the change in our advertising laws a few years ago and make more money that way than through their existing Australian customers . They are one book who love throwing money at advertising. Life is going to change for me. The quality of bet365's live service has been a way of life for me for a while. They say November/December. I am not pleased.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-18-11, 10:08 AM

Hawks/Blues O/U 190.5?

**Gee** · 08-18-11, 07:01 PM

Tough game to play a total on IMO.

I think I said something about this when Saints played the Pies last week - can be a free flowing affair or a complete armwrestle or a bit of both for quarters at a time. Unless you have a strong feeling stylistically, I wouldn't play a total.

I have a good feeling on Hawks -6.5 though. I have 2x on that already. Its now moved to 7.5. I did post that I liked that line early, but forgot to post when I took it.

On another note, things are going to be a bit quieter in here. Alt has been retired by the mods - RIP buddy. Those of you that got PMs probably know why... I don't think it was malicious, but those are the rules

Huge loss to the moresports forum.

**brettels** · 08-18-11, 07:43 PM

Might play even stakes 1-39 on both sides tonight

**donkson** · 08-18-11, 08:33 PM

I got Alt's pm, what the hell was wrong with it?

Anyway I like the under still, at 187.5.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-18-11, 08:39 PM

I put more units on the Hawks as well.

I didn't get a pm, what happened to alt?

**cincyhammer** · 08-18-11, 09:06 PM

Lookingtostart, we have exchanged messages before--I love the Hawks to certainly top at least a twelve point line, so this is a no brainer. I also agree with the under. Looking at what is at stake--I see lots of defense and probably a game that hits the high 170s at best.

Play smart my friend.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-18-11, 09:23 PM

Cheers cincy,
So generally speaking, do you guys think that the more is at stake or the more important the match is for both sides, the more defensive they'll play?

**Gee** · 08-18-11, 09:53 PM

Alt pms were advertising another site basically... SBR takes this kind of thing a bit too seriously.

**brettels** · 08-18-11, 10:33 PM

That sucks! Bring back ALT, how to get hold of him? He at another forum if known?

**Gee** · 08-18-11, 10:40 PM

Yeah, its not ideal. Solid poster.

I thought you'd know about that brettels?

I haven't spoken to him...

I've added another play, because the line is now at 8.5. I like Hawks/Eagles/Crows in a parlay paying about +154. The good thing is if the Hawks win tonight, there shouldn't be much to sweat about on the next two.

edit: payout is +154.

**brettels** · 08-18-11, 10:54 PM

Didn't know! He's disappeared from chat aswell

**Gee** · 08-18-11, 11:37 PM

hrm, who knows... I thought you'd know where he was posting that is brettels, because I thought you posted there as well...

I'll pop him an email soon, but I don't think he'll be allowed back in a hurry. Apparently he carried on and said some things he shouldn't and then i saw in his profile "Account disabled - just like Shari's kid," - not cool.

**brettels** · 08-18-11, 11:42 PM

That wasn't funny!

**donkson** · 08-19-11, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Cheers cincy, So generally speaking, do you guys think that the more is at stake or the more important the match is for both sides, the more defensive they'll play?

I think that's a pretty good way of looking at it as a rule, just look at the scoring records of finals, they're always lower. But apart form this, the total is set by books by looking at past games, Carlton and Hawthorn haven't played for 15 months, and are both very different now.

Originally posted by Gee

Alt pms were advertising another site basically... SBR takes this kind of thing a bit too seriously.

lol stupid, he was hardly taking traffic away from sbr.

**benrama** · 08-19-11, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by Gee

hrm, who knows... I thought you'd know where he was posting that is brettels, because I thought you posted there as well...

I'll pop him an email soon, but I don't think he'll be allowed back in a hurry. Apparently he carried on and said some things he shouldn't and then i saw in his profile "Account disabled - just like Shari's kid," - not cool.

Well - if he said that, then fk him, I don't want him here either. Seriously - no excuses.

On to tonight's action, really liking Hawthorn tonight and don't think it matters at 6.5 to 7.5 because I think they quite possibly win by 20-30. They have Buddy and Cyril in almost career best form, have the best kicking accuracy in the game, have a healthy roster - as good as Carlton have been I think Hawthorn is potentially destined for great things this year.

The more I look at it the more I'm thinking my biggest bet of the year will be West Coast 1H spread against Essendon, and my 2nd biggest bet the full game spread. Essendon's stats in Perth are horrible and West Coast are still my dark horse for the premiership.

**Gee** · 08-19-11, 02:48 AM

Yeah, Ben - that was the thing on his profile the other day. I tried to give him points for posting those opening lines, but it said not enabled, then i saw that. It doesn't make it right, but a lot of people post on SBR drunk/stoned whatever and type things that they don't mean and wouldn't say sober or in real life.

Yup, onto tonight. I agree the Hawks win and the 8.5 won't matter, but why wouldn't you parlay hawks/eagles/crows at +154 and that way you don't have to worry about laying any points. I can't see the rejuvenated crows losing to a sick looking gold coast or the bombers winning in Perth against this eagles team. It may be just my current thinking, but I'm starting to look for two teamers (max 3) to win rather than betting them to beat an completely arbitrary line.

I just checked. Out to 10.5 now at centrebet. I just put another unit on the parlay, so 2x on each now.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-19-11, 03:23 AM

They're still -8.5 on pinny if you want to catch that.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-19-11, 03:40 AM

If you guys are that confident on the Eagle, why not try Eagles/Eagles @ $1.45 or Eagles/EaglesEagles/Eagles @ $1.82? Or Crows/Crows/Crows/Crows?

**Gee** · 08-19-11, 03:46 AM

I have no interest in doing the stats behind, but if someone else can, report back your findings

I am confident it has no value and is too hard to cap though.

Any team can start well, but not all teams can play 4 quarters.

Go hawks tonight!

**GroundnPound** · 08-19-11, 04:05 AM

$300 on Hawthorn -7.5 here

**Gee** · 08-19-11, 06:40 AM

Carlton 4th qtr +3.5. 1.5x momentum hedge. Lets get a middle here!

**benrama** · 08-19-11, 07:18 AM

Nice Gee, I need to get more into this live betting, I would have made the same call there. Carlton came home strong, but Hawks should have been further ahead by 4th quarter, so I still feel the final score slightly flatters the Blues.

Went big on Storm and Hawks tonight and it paid off, nothing like starting off a weekend with a bang.

Looking forward to the Eagles game tomorrow.

**Lookingtostart** · 08-19-11, 09:20 AM

There's some fairly high O/U's this saturday, three of them over 190. Anyone going for unders?

**brettels** · 08-19-11, 09:45 AM

If eagles bombers are 190 it could be worth a play

**Gee** · 08-19-11, 05:08 PM

What a great night last night with the middle. Now I just need Crows and Eagles to win today to make it a +6.5x start to the weekend.

I wish I'd taken the Crows line earlier, but I'm on them now for 1.5x at 32.5. I will prob be on the Eagles line too, but not sure yet. I think its going to be a real favourites weekend. Probably North tonight to extinguish Freo's finals chances.

Eagles/Bombers should be high scoring.