AFL opening spreads

[Alt75]

ALT, do you often compare the bet365 totals to sportsbet/centrebet? If so are they different and by how much?

Yup I regularly check centrebet/sportsbet Fri/Sat mornings to compare.

bet365 totals have been upto 30 points higher/lower than what centrebet/sportsbet open them at, as soon as they open on the Aus books bet365 adjust them accordingly. I've had a few chances to get some very soft bets on totals and have wussed out with minimal stakes.

[brettels]

Yup I regularly check centrebet/sportsbet Fri/Sat mornings to compare.

bet365 totals have been upto 30 points higher/lower than what centrebet/sportsbet open them at, as soon as they open on the Aus books bet365 adjust them accordingly. I've had a few chances to get some very soft bets on totals and have wussed out with minimal stakes.

HA! Are you hitting the over right now then?

[Alt75]

I was gonna wait and see if/which way it moves any further and play the over first thing in the morning before centrebet open theirs, they tend to get a bit of early action, hopefully it lowers a bit more.

[benrama]

Saints/Pies 1H under is the way to go if you want to play a total in this game. I expect this game to start similar to the last, with a tight defensive struggle early on, before the floodgates open in the 2H as the teams get tired. There were only 74 points scored at the MCG in the first match up and I would be shocked to see both teams crack 40 by half time in this one.

Both the St Kilda 1Q and 1H bets also have some value - much more so than the full game. Whatever the game ends up at half-time however, I will almost certainly be on the Pies to cover the 2H spread.

Main other lean for the round is to keep riding the West Coast 1H money train against Melbourne. I think I'm about 8-10 from these this season, the books simply don't adjust for teams tendencies to be stronger or weaker in quarters or halves.

With Sandilands back, I think Fremantle +17.5 and ML looks tempting at Patersons, but I'll wait till tomorrow to pull the trigger on that.

[brettels]

sportsbet total coll/stk 168.5 (over)

Did you wait ALT? bet365 now 169.5

[Alt75]

sportsbet total coll/stk 168.5 (over)

Did you wait ALT? bet365 now 169.5

Yeah I did, didn't get on the pc till now, meant to check at 6am or so

btw brettels I think Hareeba is going to turn your thread in players talk into a shill tread for betfair

[Lookingtostart]

I like the highest scoring half: 2nd half @ $1.80 (St/Pies).

[brettels]

Yeah I did, didn't get on the pc till now, meant to check at 6am or so

btw brettels I think Hareeba is going to turn your thread in players talk into a shill tread for betfair

I'm not worried, i just want voters in the poll. they can say whatever they want just as long as they vote. hareeba can't vote for anyone else.

[benrama]

I like the highest scoring half: 2nd half @ $1.80 (St/Pies).

Good find!

This year Collingwood average:

54 points for, 30 against in the 1H - average total of 84
66 points for, 37 against in the 2H - average total of 103

Saints average:

43 points for, 38 points against in the 1H - average total of 81
39 points for, 36 points against in the 2H - average total of 75

So you can see that the scoring output increase for the Pies games in the 2H well exceeds the slight drop off for the Saints. Solid bet.

[Gee]

LTS: i had the same problems with a few of the bookies sites. I'm a silent voter and don't have a home phone, so i can't use any of the online verification things either. I had to go through the JP certified documents. The good thing is once you do that once, you can use the same form over and over.

I really don't know about this round. I have been out to dinner every night this week, so I haven't had a chance to look over things I normally would by now.

As for tonight's game... a total is a tough on the game. I kinda like the over, but I dunno. Its dropping big time too. Its a really tough one, because I'm not sure exactly where the Saints are at now... even on their winning streak, I have not been particularly impressed with them.

There is a very good chance that I don't play tonights game. Saints 1Q may be the play. Despite everything, they have usually started quite well.

[Lookingtostart]

Benrama, where did you get those stats?

Gee, the thing is I am enrolled in the electorate role. I'll have to update my card soon so as well but yeah, I'll eventually get it done.

[benrama]

LTS - I get them from http://afl.allthestats.com/index.php, awesome resource for AFL breakdowns, head-to-heads, results on various grounds, quarter by quarter, half by half breakdowns, etc.

I got the stats above by going to the quarter and halves won stats and filtering for 2001, this direct link should work:

http://afl.allthestats.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=209:quarters-and-halfs-won&catid=34:all-time&Itemid=56&qry=1&inyr=2011

On my book they don't have the 2H highest scoring line listed, but I can effectively get the same by betting that either the 3rd or 4th quarter will be the highest scoring, giving me effective $1.80 odds.

re: Sportsbet, I found it rather easy to verify and withdraw but I registered some time ago so things might have changed. I don't find them to be as bad as they are often made out, and I much prefer their phone service to Centrebet's (who seem to have being a grumpy bastard as a requirement to working the call centres)

[Lookingtostart]

Thanks!

[Gee]

ben: i agree entirely. I do not call centrebet for this reason.

Saints have just moved to 36.5 and I suspect they will close at 35.

Pies 1-39 is my new thinking... it may be that the best bet is a live one when we see how they come out after quarter time.

[Alt75]

It doesn't look like sportsbet use the e-identi thing anymore, when I joined a few years ago there was some secure form for your DL, Medicare, Tax File Numbers and they were instantly checked with databases and verified if ok, from looking through the help section on creating an account seems you have to enter an address which goes by the electoral roll and do a KYC thing like bet365.

[brettels]

Its as easy as scanning a photo ID, utility bill or document with current address. email it, then its done.

[binomial]

anyone thinking of playing the mighty power tomorrow?

pretty much a different side being shuffled out with nine changes, which looks a bit stronger with their two key defenders back.

hawthorn have won a fair few by around 50 points but haven't been smashing teams huge.

could 80 points be enough?

[Alt75]

Hard to call that one. Those changes could be a blessing or a curse. Experimenting with a new lineup and gameplan at the end of the season is likely preparing for next season. Although I guess things couldn't get worse for Port with half the side being replaced it will probably do their structure and team morale some good. Two of those inclusions are first gamers, a few returning from injury and it is at the MCG.

[benrama]

Hawthorn don't have as strong as incentive as Pies/Cats to drive home their points %, as they almost certainly won't finish level with Carlton (due to the Carlton drawn game) and they are way ahead of the Eagles. So you'll almost certainly be sweating a backdoor cover or watching as the Hawks coast 50 up.

[Gee]

No play on an 78.5 point spread! Gotta be mad to really think there is a solid edge in a game where there is such a ridiculous gulf in class. Hawks by whatever they can b fukt winning by.

I played Pies 1-39 for 1.5x at +130 a few hours ago.

I'm seriously thinking about taking the Pies TT over as a hedge for 1x.. if they put up over 105 points against the Saints, the Saints may well struggle to stay within the 40. I don't think I hit both though, so hrm. Undecided.

Pies would need the 3rd highest score against the saints this year to cover the TT.

Its the kinda game I wish I hadn't already pulled the trigger and shouldn't have. Will be good watching though

edit: definitely not rolling with the TT over. Just going to ride out my 1-39 bet.

[brettels]

I'm nervous about the total now, I went large for the over! Nail biting entertainment on the box tonight

[Alt75]

I'm fairly confident on the over, didn't scream at me to go larger than usual though.

Best of luck brettels!

Quarters tips just now on Channel 10 news was Collingwood by 36 and Hawks by 40. They probably win by at least double that or get mugged.

[brettels]

I miss victorian TV. QLD has a whole lot of nothing except the footy show on thursday that starts at 11:45pm and runs through to 2am. AFL insight app is helping a bit now i get a little bit more.

[brettels]

im off, will be watching the game. will come back and cry if i lose my money, if not i'll celebrate and talk to ya's tommorow before the games.

[brettels]

can't help it, im back! total is on its way to the bank!!!!

[Alt75]

Don't count those chickens yet!

Looking good though, wish I had have taken the Pies 1Q too

What happened to the mysbr cascading menu with the link to the chat?

Do you ever go in there brettels?

[brettels]

Nope, never had a reason to.

[brettels]

where is it? i'll check it out!

[brettels]

the total is getting screwed, **** this quarter!!!!

[GroundnPound]

Pies 10 goals in last quarter

[brettels]

Pies 10 goals in last quarter

Nah, not this time! I'll be broke thanks to that 3rd quarter piss poor performance!

[brettels]

7 goals in 14 minutes?

i said i would so here it is.......

[GroundnPound]

Come on pies kill these saints.

[GroundnPound]

What total you need to hit?

[brettels]

over 168.5