Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career

I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway




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[str]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.

[str]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




.

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

[JBEX]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




.

[JBEX]

have to think if an ohio bred with a ky sire has a good career would be an attractive broodmare prospect ..long ways away from that if it happens

[JBEX]

If ,you watch the replay, only look at the different hand placements of the riders near the lead. The 1 horse had slacked reigns and the hands were at least /1/2 - 3/4's way up the neck all the way around the track. Look at the other two riders near the lead. Their hands are much further down the neck towards their crotch. Their reigns were tighter and their horses awaiting instructions from the bit. What that is, is the 1 horse is being asked early and entirely while both outside horses are being reserved down the backside. At no point did the reigns of the 1 horse (Army Mule) get tightened and jocks hands slid back so as to try and relax, rate, or even give the horse a comfortable breather. Honestly, in my judgement, it was ridiculous.
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.

She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.

That is what I see.

see what you mean with the reigns..I wonder if thats comparable to torque ..hands further up towards the neck there'd be more force on bit vs the way the AM jock had his hands positioned ..maybe not a good example but throwing it out there just in case it is

even to me it made sense to try and use different tactics and not sure why it wouldn't to the connections ..at this point if they don't attempt to in her next start
would be a real head-scratcher

[str]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

no problem str..sounds right what you are saying but definitely have a look when you can..no rush

I looked at the condition books and they have multiple levels of maiden claiming races if they need to go that path .. besides the in-betweens and succesfull ones interesting to follow some of them trying to find some success at the bottom levels

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

appreciate the feedback batt..will be interesting to see if she can change tactics otherwise probably will be dropping into maiden claimers

understand not every army mule
going to be a runner which I'll define as suceeding at some level of the game ..we'll see with this one

If ,you watch the replay, only look at the different hand placements of the riders near the lead. The 1 horse had slacked reigns and the hands were at least /1/2 - 3/4's way up the neck all the way around the track. Look at the other two riders near the lead. Their hands are much further down the neck towards their crotch. Their reigns were tighter and their horses awaiting instructions from the bit. What that is, is the 1 horse is being asked early and entirely while both outside horses are being reserved down the backside. At no point did the reigns of the 1 horse (Army Mule) get tightened and jocks hands slid back so as to try and relax, rate, or even give the horse a comfortable breather. Honestly, in my judgement, it was ridiculous.
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.

She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.

That is what I see.

[JBEX]

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

appreciate the feedback batt..will be interesting to see if she can change tactics otherwise probably will be dropping into maiden claimers

understand not every army mule
going to be a runner which I'll define as suceeding at some level of the game ..we'll see with this one

[batt33]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

[JBEX]

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str..sounds right what you are saying but definitely have a look when you can..no rush

I looked at the condition books and they have multiple levels of maiden claiming races if they need to go that path .. besides the in-betweens and succesfull ones interesting to follow some of them trying to find some success at the bottom levels

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hi all,

Following up again to let you know we are on track for the forum upgrade to go ahead next week. We have targeted the evening of Tuesday, March 4th into the morning of Wednesday, March 5th to complete the migration. During this time, the forum and contests will be offline.

No action is required on your end. All post and message history will transfer over with the upgrade. I will touch base again here prior to launch to ensure everything is ready to go.

from SBR Andy

[Easy-Rider 66]

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

Hey STR based on what I read the site will be down Tues night into WED morn/afternoon. Just a heads up.

[str]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

[str]

did you notice #3 john fitzgerald by the sire kennedy..perfect name although you'd think someone would've done that sooner

I missed that. Good catch. Great name !

[str]

so distracted by an army mule running vs ohio breds I didn't notice it was a filly..didn't stop them from smashing her at the windows in the first 2 starts including 1/5 in start 2..that 2nd start was at belterra Park which might be a notch below this track and thistledown ..possibly has something to do with the odds

I think the class of AM compensates and more for fillies vs boys in her 1st 2 starts as the typical ohio stallion is very inexpensive ..that early in the year for 2yos as you know str it's not unheard of to run against colts

thought the pace scenario was a little unfavorable last out as the eventual winner went by her before the 3/8th marker..the AM gained 3 lengths in the stretch and possibly because of the early move the winner was a bit tired at the end ..thought possibly the winner didn't switch leads till very late but not sure

could see her on the lead alone or pressed by (possibly stalking)
the 5 ..be interesting to see how this race develops ..I don't get 8-1 ml and think will be significantly lower

Probably right in the difference in stallions JBEX.

I did watch that race and yes, the Army Mule continued to run and finish but the horse in front hit a wall and was totally out of gas that last 70 yards. That is why the field made those lengths up late. The winner struggled galloping out after the race.
The in race pace did make it real tough on her IMO.
Agree that 8-1 is high. Probably a good bit less than that.

[JBEX]

did you notice #3 john fitzgerald by the sire kennedy..perfect name although you'd think someone would've done that sooner

[JBEX]

Let's start with this.
Still a maiden. Filly against the boys. She has worked 3/8ths, a 1/2, another 1/2, and a 5/8ths on a surface where she was the only horse to work 5/8ths that day. Then no works for 18 days. She is asked to run 3/4's from the 1 post today. Funny thing is, she will run hard all the way today and I won't be surprised if she isn't right there.
And while I would, and maybe should, bash the connections for this spot, I do understand that this is a very odd stake in that it is restricted to Ohio Bred horses that went through the Ohio Breeders sales ring. That kind of race can make owners a big name in the Ohio breeders community sometimes and as a result, you can and do see crazy stuff happen at the entry box when it comes to this race. This is most likely that.

The form screams that she is not as prepared to run well as she could be. The filly against the boys, well you know my thoughts on that. Fronts on for every start. Maybe she really needs them but....??

All in all, if she was by just about any other sire., she would be a bet against off all the things she has going against her.

But she is an Army Mule. She has never been off the board in her life. All she know is to try her guts out. She will today I'm sure. This is her 3rd start against the boys out of five races. In spite of all the hurdles she just keeps on going.

This last sentence in the race conditions makes breeders heads spin .

"Trophies presented by the OTBO to the winning Owner, Trainer, Jockey and Breeder".

Hey, it's not like I never got pressure from an owner to run in a race that I probably would not have. And a few of those won.

So while I do not like it at all.... I understand.

As always I appreciate the heads up. These AM horses are incredible.

so distracted by an army mule running vs ohio breds I didn't notice it was a filly..didn't stop them from smashing her at the windows in the first 2 starts including 1/5 in start 2..that 2nd start was at belterra Park which might be a notch below this track and thistledown ..possibly has something to do with the odds

I think the class of AM compensates and more for fillies vs boys in her 1st 2 starts as the typical ohio stallion is very inexpensive ..that early in the year for 2yos as you know str it's not unheard of to run against colts

thought the pace scenario was a little unfavorable last out as the eventual winner went by her before the 3/8th marker..the AM gained 3 lengths in the stretch and possibly because of the early move the winner was a bit tired at the end ..thought possibly the winner didn't switch leads till very late but not sure

could see her on the lead alone or pressed by (possibly stalking)
the 5 ..be interesting to see how this race develops ..I don't get 8-1 ml and think will be significantly lower

[str]

While we are on the Army Mule subject and mismanagement of placement for some of these horses by their connections, it will be cool to watch the horse Army Gal that Linda Rice just won her 2nd race in two starts with. As you know, I constantly praise her for putting her horses in really good situations. That's what she does. And the theory of a horse improving by being successful is hopefully something we will witness together.
That said, she is quickly running out of spots without trying a Stake as 2 other than races for 3 year olds in March are hard to fill and may not even be written quite yet. Either way, she will be looking for what is best for the horse which is always a breath of fresh air.

[str]

by army mule..monday @ mahoning R7 #1 holidays army brat (8-1)..post @ 3:03

ohio bred stakes race for 3 year old fillies



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just noticed she's still a maiden.. a little aggresive but being it's vs statebreds and AM a kentucky sire not concerned with it

Let's start with this.
Still a maiden. Filly against the boys. She has worked 3/8ths, a 1/2, another 1/2, and a 5/8ths on a surface where she was the only horse to work 5/8ths that day. Then no works for 18 days. She is asked to run 3/4's from the 1 post today. Funny thing is, she will run hard all the way today and I won't be surprised if she isn't right there.
And while I would, and maybe should, bash the connections for this spot, I do understand that this is a very odd stake in that it is restricted to Ohio Bred horses that went through the Ohio Breeders sales ring. That kind of race can make owners a big name in the Ohio breeders community sometimes and as a result, you can and do see crazy stuff happen at the entry box when it comes to this race. This is most likely that.

The form screams that she is not as prepared to run well as she could be. The filly against the boys, well you know my thoughts on that. Fronts on for every start. Maybe she really needs them but....??

All in all, if she was by just about any other sire., she would be a bet against off all the things she has going against her.

But she is an Army Mule. She has never been off the board in her life. All she know is to try her guts out. She will today I'm sure. This is her 3rd start against the boys out of five races. In spite of all the hurdles she just keeps on going.

This last sentence in the race conditions makes breeders heads spin .

"Trophies presented by the OTBO to the winning Owner, Trainer, Jockey and Breeder".

Hey, it's not like I never got pressure from an owner to run in a race that I probably would not have. And a few of those won.

So while I do not like it at all.... I understand.

As always I appreciate the heads up. These AM horses are incredible.