Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str

I know I've touched on this or similar stuff before (and maybe I'm a little too obsessed with something that means nothing )..hong kong a horse finished 3rd @ 134 (133-1 our way) and < length from the winner ..a 66 that you just couldn't play (usually the case) imo finished 2nd and an 8.9 won ..big $ but came a little light by the way I figure them @ $370 for a $2 quinella..no exactas there

getting away from the point though

his last running line @ 1 1/8 turf in a 14 horse field below and today's race same track and distance

Q =quarter length
H =half
T = 3/4

8-5T/8-4/11-4H/12-5Q

without factoring anything else into this like pace,post position,distance,trouble line (none in comment) etc do you feel it takes some grittiness for a horse to maintain his lengths behind even though he remains in the 2nd half of the field and finished bottom 3 ..maybe even more so at a route distance like today..kind of like not passing but still trying..my personal opinion over the years is that it does and is a better than it looks effort


if I see anything interesting today I'll let you know

[str]

hey str

I know I've touched on this or similar stuff before (and maybe I'm a little too obsessed with something that means nothing )..hong kong a horse finished 3rd @ 134 (133-1 our way) and < length from the winner ..a 66 that you just couldn't play (usually the case) imo finished 2nd and an 8.9 won ..big $ but came a little light by the way I figure them @ $370 for a $2 quinella..no exactas there

getting away from the point though

his last running line @ 1 1/8 turf in a 14 horse field below and today's race same track and distance

Q =quarter length
H =half
T = 3/4

8-5T/8-4/11-4H/12-5Q

without factoring anything else into this like pace,post position,distance,trouble line (none in comment) etc do you feel it takes some grittiness for a horse to maintain his lengths behind even though he remains in the 2nd half of the field and finished bottom 3 ..maybe even more so at a route distance like today..kind of like not passing but still trying..my personal opinion over the years is that it does and is a better than it looks effort


if I see anything interesting today I'll let you know

Part two of the question 1st:
The short answer is sure. You can't bash the horse for losing by 5 lengths. It ran pretty even throughout so that's at least something. At those odds you would have thought the horse got blown away .

The 1st part of the question is interesting as well. That Quinella was light if that was the 2.00 payoff for those odds. Very light. So how did players know something? If indeed they did at all? I would look for 2 things. It is usually one of them. Either the pace was friendly to those three horses and I assume that means it was quicker than normal and the front runners collapsed (but it can be the other way around) or they all benefitted from a better part of the surface. Both of those scenarios could have been detected prior to the running which could lead to the lower payoff. Other than those two, the only others are well bet post positions in every race. Like the one horse can be over bet or something like that.
So bias or pace. Those are generally in the picture when all three top finishers are longshots. Certainly not always, but often enough to try and identify, even if it's after the fact.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

Part two of the question 1st:
The short answer is sure. You can't bash the horse for losing by 5 lengths. It ran pretty even throughout so that's at least something. At those odds you would have thought the horse got blown away .

The 1st part of the question is interesting as well. That Quinella was light if that was the 2.00 payoff for those odds. Very light. So how did players know something? If indeed they did at all? I would look for 2 things. It is usually one of them. Either the pace was friendly to those three horses and I assume that means it was quicker than normal and the front runners collapsed (but it can be the other way around) or they all benefitted from a better part of the surface. Both of those scenarios could have been detected prior to the running which could lead to the lower payoff. Other than those two, the only others are well bet post positions in every race. Like the one horse can be over bet or something like that.
So bias or pace. Those are generally in the picture when all three top finishers are longshots. Certainly not always, but often enough to try and identify, even if it's after the fact.
Hope that helps.

it was a wire job and fractions up front were slow based on there pars..the odds on favorite was out of it early so that certainly contributed to it..the card as a whole did close to the equivalent of $200M us$ handle which is typical for sha tin..


here's a link to the chart for the race..check out the "racing incident report" as it's unlike anything they do here..if you want to see what a race looks like go to "multimedia showcase" link then quickly from the drop down "tv programme video"..on the right middle page you'll see the races ..3 vertical boxes with a horseshoe in between..above the horseshoe is replay video for that race..below it is the chart for the race

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/information/english/Racing/LocalResults.aspx?RaceDate=2021/02/06&Racecourse=ST&RaceNo=3

[JBEX]

it was a wire job and fractions up front were slow based on there pars..the odds on favorite was out of it early so that certainly contributed to it..the card as a whole did close to the equivalent of $200M us$ handle which is typical for sha tin..


here's a link to the chart for the race..check out the "racing incident report" as it's unlike anything they do here..if you want to see what a race looks like go to "multimedia showcase" link then quickly from the drop down "tv programme video"..on the right middle page you'll see the races ..3 vertical boxes with a horseshoe in between..above the horseshoe is replay video for that race..below it is the chart for the race


https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=3

actually that's the hard way to do it..multi angle race replay on the same page takes you right to it

[JBEX]

hey str

gp r6..2 hitech is back (8-1)



first time starter with nice pedigree info top and bottom..under the radar trainer who has decent numbers especially factoring in roi..like the workout pattern ..very steady, they all seem decent and once in a while puts up a real quickie

the big guys (chad,todd and shug) all have debuters with big specs and shug's really cost quite a bit for the pedigree..he has the rail and mine right next to him which is a big edge in gulfstream sprints

what do you think ?

[JBEX]

hey str

gp r6..2 hitech is back (8-1)



first time starter with nice pedigree info top and bottom..under the radar trainer who has decent numbers especially factoring in roi..like the workout pattern ..very steady, they all seem decent and once in a while puts up a real quickie

the big guys (chad,todd and shug) all have debuters with big specs and shug's really cost quite a bit for the pedigree..he has the rail and mine right next to him which is a big edge in gulfstream sprints

what do you think ?

if I caught before you looked at above,do you know about brittany russell at laurel? she's been tearing them up for a while there now..has a big pedigree homebred 1ster in R6 #2 gravity rainbow (2-1) ..think will be significantly lower

[str]

hey str

gp r6..2 hitech is back (8-1)



first time starter with nice pedigree info top and bottom..under the radar trainer who has decent numbers especially factoring in roi..like the workout pattern ..very steady, they all seem decent and once in a while puts up a real quickie

the big guys (chad,todd and shug) all have debuters with big specs and shug's really cost quite a bit for the pedigree..he has the rail and mine right next to him which is a big edge in gulfstream sprints

what do you think ?

So I saw the pm before the post so I went to today and took a shot that the question would be this race. So without knowing who you wanted to talk about, I tried to see what caught my eye. Here's what I saw:

Shug has the rail with a pricey firster. It is always a tougher than normal task to break, relax, and close as a firster from the one hole. I have no clue what this horse does but Shug's M O is to not have them geared way up first out. So for the probable low price, I stayed away from that one.

I saw the 2 horse, the one you are asking about and it checks a lot of boxes. I don't care about the trainers stats here in that you have Uncle Mo in there, (great with firsters as you know), a solid work tab, plenty of gate work, and the trainer is having a real nice meet. When a lesser name trainer is having a real solid meet, they typically take note as well and try to keep up the momentum with maybe a little more emphasis on staying on that roll. I know I did.

Of course the four, Todd's horse will be ready, bet on, but that's not the point.

The five caught my eye for sure. Probably has speed, and if so, has the correct rider for the moment. Clement is lagging a bit so far but he has had several great meets. You can't win all of them. This is the one I guessed you were asking about.

There are plenty more outside of this one that could very well look the part and be major players.

A real solid race on paper. I always like going against the grain and trying to beat the favs with babies and I know you do as well. I think your pick is as good as any. Again, no interest in playing Todd, Shug or Chad in races like these. So that leaves the 2 and the 5.

Your reasoning is solid throughout IMO and you mentioned what I deem as great angles to be looking for.

Good luck with this pick. With the big boys in here, you should get a decent price even if you are bet down with the steam.

[str]

if I caught before you looked at above,do you know about brittany russell at laurel? she's been tearing them up for a while there now..has a big pedigree homebred 1ster in R6 #2 gravity rainbow (2-1) ..think will be significantly lower

I do not know her but I did hear that she was doing very well at Laurel. Not sure but did she come there from Phila. Park? If so, I saw a bunch of horses train that day I was there. Whoever that trainer was from Phila. Park, and I asked who it was to the agent I went to see, just don't remember for sure, the horses looked great and it was obvious that the riders knew what they were doing. It's not hard to pick out the above average outfits by just watching them train in the morning. The subtleties just jump out at you.

Snowing like crazy now, probably getting 3-4 inches of heavy, wet snow but it should stop around 1PM. If they run, watch the rail. More often than not, the inside is the place to be on days like this. Check under the rail if you view the race. If it's broom clean under there, the rail is probably sweet. If full of clots, probably not.
Thanks JBEX. Always a pleasure.

[JBEX]

So I saw the pm before the post so I went to today and took a shot that the question would be this race. So without knowing who you wanted to talk about, I tried to see what caught my eye. Here's what I saw:

Shug has the rail with a pricey firster. It is always a tougher than normal task to break, relax, and close as a firster from the one hole. I have no clue what this horse does but Shug's M O is to not have them geared way up first out. So for the probable low price, I stayed away from that one.

I saw the 2 horse, the one you are asking about and it checks a lot of boxes. I don't care about the trainers stats here in that you have Uncle Mo in there, (great with firsters as you know), a solid work tab, plenty of gate work, and the trainer is having a real nice meet. When a lesser name trainer is having a real solid meet, they typically take note as well and try to keep up the momentum with maybe a little more emphasis on staying on that roll. I know I did.

Of course the four, Todd's horse will be ready, bet on, but that's not the point.

The five caught my eye for sure. Probably has speed, and if so, has the correct rider for the moment. Clement is lagging a bit so far but he has had several great meets. You can't win all of them. This is the one I guessed you were asking about.

There are plenty more outside of this one that could very well look the part and be major players.

A real solid race on paper. I always like going against the grain and trying to beat the favs with babies and I know you do as well. I think your pick is as good as any. Again, no interest in playing Todd, Shug or Chad in races like these. So that leaves the 2 and the 5.

Your reasoning is solid throughout IMO and you mentioned what I deem as great angles to be looking for.

Good luck with this pick. With the big boys in here, you should get a decent price even if you are bet down with the steam.

yes I like your point about a lesser known trainer having a good meet maybe paying a little more attention to things vs a big outfit like the others you discussed..I realize shug not big on debuters although when he hits it's often at a decent mutuel..I do like him better here vs the other biggies (meaning as a 2nd horse) for the reasons I stated..also sire above avg with firsters. chad posted outside a good thing also

james toner has one that looks like she may be good down the road but probably poses no threat here..she's probably a lock now lol


thanks for the feedback and enjoy the game

[JBEX]

I do not know her but I did hear that she was doing very well at Laurel. Not sure but did she come there from Phila. Park? If so, I saw a bunch of horses train that day I was there. Whoever that trainer was from Phila. Park, and I asked who it was to the agent I went to see, just don't remember for sure, the horses looked great and it was obvious that the riders knew what they were doing. It's not hard to pick out the above average outfits by just watching them train in the morning. The subtleties just jump out at you.

Snowing like crazy now, probably getting 3-4 inches of heavy, wet snow but it should stop around 1PM. If they run, watch the rail. More often than not, the inside is the place to be on days like this. Check under the rail if you view the race. If it's broom clean under there, the rail is probably sweet. If full of clots, probably not.
Thanks JBEX. Always a pleasure.

no problem str


here's something fairly recent from the paulick report that gives a good overview of her..she's the wife of sheldon russell who was at the time the leading jockey at the meet

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/people/trainer-brittany-russell-could-make-history-in-race-for-laurels-fall-title/

[JBEX]

hey str


may have asked you about him before..dale capuano has excellent roi numbers over huge samples of races (meaning he only loses a little which is impressive with no capping)..know he is a guy who has been around for a long time on the maryland circuit..what impression do you have of him ,if any, being a fellow maryland trainer ?


R7 at laurel was a tough call but that was my tiebreaker

feel free to comment on the race..a nice field of 3yo allowance horses





.

[str]

hey str


may have asked you about him before..dale capuano has excellent roi numbers over huge samples of races (meaning he only loses a little which is impressive with no capping)..know he is a guy who has been around for a long time on the maryland circuit..what impression do you have of him ,if any, being a fellow maryland trainer ?


R7 at laurel was a tough call but that was my tiebreaker

feel free to comment on the race..a nice field of 3yo allowance horses





.

Glad to see the 4 horse scratched. Did not look eligible to me. But with new rules in place, maybe he was and I could not see it. Wasn't in for a tag and seemed like that was his only way to be able to start.
Quality field of 3 year olds. Actually liked a couple and one was the winner. When I see a horse win the A other than at Aqueduct and run in the same race here, I assume it is a drop in class. But again, without following it, I'm probably wrong. Lol.


Dale and Gary both started before I left. I knew there dad from Bowie way back in the day. Both hard working guys that put there life into the game. Dale has had a lot of success over many years as had Gary. Gary almost won the Derby. I knew Gary better than Dale from playing golf I guess. Both deserve all they have achieved. They both worked very hard for it.

All the best JBEX.

[JBEX]

hey str

had the longshot winner of R3 @ gulfstream (they've been few and far between of late lol)..played him because one of my expensive for the specs angle and trainer has decent numbers..not doing this to brag but it was a very impressive effort for a first time starter at a mile from the rail..wanted to get your thoughts #1 caxambas candy

[JBEX]

[JBEX]

important note..was an off the turf race but the two ml favorites did run

#3 (5-2 ml ,off 5-2) mto
#8 (even ml, off 1-2)

[str]

hey str

had the longshot winner of R3 @ gulfstream (they've been few and far between of late lol)..played him because one of my expensive for the specs angle and trainer has decent numbers..not doing this to brag but it was a very impressive effort for a first time starter at a mile from the rail..wanted to get your thoughts #1 caxambas candy

It looks like he did everything right on cue. Was fortunate that the field did not cross down to the fence . That allowed him to race without much of any kick back, especially early where it might have caused his mind to wander. He found his stride after about a 1/4 and was ready to be asked anytime from that point on. Went through on the inside as well. Very well taught and prepped by his trainer and exercise rider.

I guess you won't know for a while how good a group he beat but as far as the horse was concerned, he did everything asked of him.
Very nice first effort. Trainer did a real nice job.

Nice hit JBEX. I think that angle you applied is a solid one. People don't just over pay for no reason.

[JBEX]

It looks like he did everything right on cue. Was fortunate that the field did not cross down to the fence . That allowed him to race without much of any kick back, especially early where it might have caused his mind to wander. He found his stride after about a 1/4 and was ready to be asked anytime from that point on. Went through on the inside as well. Very well taught and prepped by his trainer and exercise rider.

I guess you won't know for a while how good a group he beat but as far as the horse was concerned, he did everything asked of him.
Very nice first effort. Trainer did a real nice job.

Nice hit JBEX. I think that angle you applied is a solid one. People don't just over pay for no reason.

yes that's a great observation ..they did seem to break out a bit so he had plenty of room and as you said no kickback.. it was noticeable at the quarter how he seemed to really get into stride and catch up to them with apparent ease..had a lot of horse in the stretch and being able to do that at a mile first out may suggest he'll like going further down the road..turf or dirt will be interesting also but have a hunch you'll say it's more of a schedule thing..definitely excellent turf pedigree and probably why the trainer entered him here (or could also be a schedule thing)


yeah I really like that angle and some of my best hits have come with it..this one was clear based on sire and dam record and production which were minimal..it's always nice to beat pletcher,brown (in this case the former) when they're running a mega expensive horse with one that's more modestly priced


thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

if you're not aware laurel has a big day today with 6 stakes races..only one of those for 3yo's and lacey,hamilton smith and i'm sure a few others you probably know going..i'm taking the linda rice shipper..some nice horses in there

[str]

hey str

if you're not aware laurel has a big day today with 6 stakes races..only one of those for 3yo's and lacey,hamilton smith and i'm sure a few others you probably know going..i'm taking the linda rice shipper..some nice horses in there

Thanks JBEX.

The Campbell, Fritchie and General George are old time Bowie winter Stakes. Got to be at least 50 years old.
Really loved that place.

[JBEX]

Thanks JBEX.

The Campbell, Fritchie and General George are old time Bowie winter Stakes. Got to be at least 50 years old.
Really loved that place.

no problem str..aware of this day (and stakes) going back a long ways but wasn't aware it originated at bowie


losing #4 to a claim 4 back must sting..homebred with a productive dam and initial 2 starts weren't bad (albeit vs mcl's)..other side must be a high for the new connections..that's the game as you well know

[str]

[QUOTE=JBEX;30111384]no problem str..aware of this day (and stakes) going back a long ways but wasn't aware it originated at bowie


losing #4 to a claim 4 back must sting..homebred with a productive dam and initial 2 starts weren't bad (albeit vs mcl's)..other side must be a high for the new connections..that's the game as you well know.

The claiming game was the toughest game I ever played in. Harder than sports betting IMO and much harder than real estate.
If you are willing to put in the time and willing to constantly learn along the way, you can succeed in all of them. But like most things, it takes dedication, hard work long hours, and a relentless will to win. With that, you need to have a legal edge. That part, you have to figure out. Illegal edge, I hate that crap. Not necessary. That's the lazy way IMO and for those with less talent.
Good luck today JBEX. All the best.

[JBEX]

[QUOTE=str;30111563]

no problem str..aware of this day (and stakes) going back a long ways but wasn't aware it originated at bowie


losing #4 to a claim 4 back must sting..homebred with a productive dam and initial 2 starts weren't bad (albeit vs mcl's)..other side must be a high for the new connections..that's the game as you well know.

The claiming game was the toughest game I ever played in. Harder than sports betting IMO and much harder than real estate.
If you are willing to put in the time and willing to constantly learn along the way, you can succeed in all of them. But like most things, it takes dedication, hard work long hours, and a relentless will to win. With that, you need to have a legal edge. That part, you have to figure out. Illegal edge, I hate that crap. Not necessary. That's the lazy way IMO and for those with less talent.
Good luck today JBEX. All the best.

ok thx str

[JBEX]

hey str ..wanted your opinion ,if you have time, on the horse below

R8 parx

#6 katesaluckygirl (6-1)

some of things I see..

had to break from 10 post vs open msw in her route debut..was bet well and a good starter effort vs better than today (today statebreds)

got lasix for her 2nd start and dropped in against mcl ..got the waiver I'm guessing cause she never ran vs mcl before ? not up for sale a good sign..also was bet to favoritism

very gritty effort on the front end of a fast pace at 1m 70y and just misses by a half length..I would think this
would bode well for going 7f today..trainer an excellent roi overall..guessing john servis's son but not sure..solid jockey aboard who rode in both of her first 2 starts


homebred with a dam who's been a big time producer


the negative only two slow works since her last race 55 days ago..I know that usually doesn't bother you and guessing that would be the case again here ?



.

[str]

hey str ..wanted your opinion ,if you have time, on the horse below

R8 parx

#6 katesaluckygirl (6-1)

some of things I see..

had to break from 10 post vs open msw in her route debut..was bet well and a good starter effort vs better than today (today statebreds)

got lasix for her 2nd start and dropped in against mcl ..got the waiver I'm guessing cause she never ran vs mcl before ? not up for sale a good sign..also was bet to favoritism

very gritty effort on the front end of a fast pace at 1m 70y and just misses by a half length..I would think this
would bode well for going 7f today..trainer an excellent roi overall..guessing john servis's son but not sure..solid jockey aboard who rode in both of her first 2 starts


homebred with a dam who's been a big time producer


the negative only two slow works since her last race 55 days ago..I know that usually doesn't bother you and guessing that would be the case again here ?



.

Well I guessed wrong. I looked before seeing the thread and guessed it would be about Mike Pino's firster and the slow gate work after the fast work off the pole. I'll give you that answer anyway. Lol. Guaranteed that he only went 3/8ths in probably 35 and change or 36 and was pulling up when he hit the 1/2 mile mark. That is a classic mentor gate workout just before their 1st start. Especially when the gate sits at a 1/16th pole which it often does. The clockers will usually add 7 seconds and start the watch on the 1/4 or 3/4 pole and that has the horse pulling up on an odd pole which can screw up an actual time from the gate. ( Not sure where the gate sits at Parx but assume it's at the 1/4 pole chute). I must have done it hundreds of times and Mike certainly has and would as well. So would Mark Reid, Michelle Nevin Tony, etc. (I'm forgetting a few) for future reference.

Now on to the real question.

So the works do look somewhat confusing on this horse. I cannot explain why that is occurring but as you said, I would never allow that to bother me and it does not here. He dropped in for 20k maidens off that disguised poor first race. It really wasn't poor at all IMO coming from the 10 post and wide throughout in quick early fractions but the form was muddied so why not run for 20k. Just got beat and now returns in MSW. So that alone negates any slow work questions. The horse is fine and they are protecting the horse from being claimed.

Do not know the relation or family other than John and his dad and that was a lifetime ago so I can't help there.

I see the Uncle Mo sires for both your horse and Mike's. Should like an off track assuming it is wet up there. Sure is here in Md.
Certainly has a chance in what appears to be a race several can win. Really like the turn back to 7/8ths off two routes. Always a good thing if the horse has any speed going longer which yours has.
With the two horse getting plenty of early money, which I assume, you should get 7 or 8 -1. If so, why not. Plenty to like and make a case for.
Good luck with the play JBEX.

[JBEX]

Well I guessed wrong. I looked before seeing the thread and guessed it would be about Mike Pino's firster and the slow gate work after the fast work off the pole. I'll give you that answer anyway. Lol. Guaranteed that he only went 3/8ths in probably 35 and change or 36 and was pulling up when he hit the 1/2 mile mark. That is a classic mentor gate workout just before their 1st start. Especially when the gate sits at a 1/16th pole which it often does. The clockers will usually add 7 seconds and start the watch on the 1/4 or 3/4 pole and that has the horse pulling up on an odd pole which can screw up an actual time from the gate. ( Not sure where the gate sits at Parx but assume it's at the 1/4 pole chute). I must have done it hundreds of times and Mike certainly has and would as well. So would Mark Reid, Michelle Nevin Tony, etc. (I'm forgetting a few) for future reference.

Now on to the real question.

So the works do look somewhat confusing on this horse. I cannot explain why that is occurring but as you said, I would never allow that to bother me and it does not here. He dropped in for 20k maidens off that disguised poor first race. It really wasn't poor at all IMO coming from the 10 post and wide throughout in quick early fractions but the form was muddied so why not run for 20k. Just got beat and now returns in MSW. So that alone negates any slow work questions. The horse is fine and they are protecting the horse from being claimed.

Do not know the relation or family other than John and his dad and that was a lifetime ago so I can't help there.

I see the Uncle Mo sires for both your horse and Mike's. Should like an off track assuming it is wet up there. Sure is here in Md.
Certainly has a chance in what appears to be a race several can win. Really like the turn back to 7/8ths off two routes. Always a good thing if the horse has any speed going longer which yours has.
With the two horse getting plenty of early money, which I assume, you should get 7 or 8 -1. If so, why not. Plenty to like and make a case for.
Good luck with the play JBEX.

thanks str


track labeled good for now but will update..off track should be no problem for mine with the breeding top and bottom..of course you never know till you do lol but going in a positive


michael pino's horse is scratched


the other prominent trainer (john servis who is tyler's dad) is a horrible investment with debut horses..looks good on paper and with jock will draw lots of play

[JBEX]

thanks str


track labeled good for now but will update..off track should be no problem for mine with the breeding top and bottom..of course you never know till you do lol but going in a positive


michael pino's horse is scratched


the other prominent trainer (john servis who is tyler's dad) is a horrible investment with debut horses..looks good on paper and with jock will draw lots of play

all for nothing..card is canceled

[str]

all for nothing..card is canceled

Oh well.

I was surprised Mike was going to run 7/8ths first out. That's a tough distance unless it is to stretch out next time with what seems to be a slow firster. I usually shy away from firsters going 7/8ths. Don't know any statistics on that but do know it's a tough distance to get a baby ready to go. At least it was for me. Lol.

[JBEX]

hey str

greatest honour is going in the fountain of youth tomorrow..this was part of the comment you made reviewing his previous race in the holy bull

"The horse broke a step slow for sure and took a 1/16th to find it's early stride. That will have to stop to have a decent chance in the Derby. Keep an eye out for that"


shug gave him two 4f works eight days apart at payson park since that race..do you think part of the purpose of those works was to try and get him a little more aggressive and sharp earlier than he was for his last start?

[JBEX]

one other question..let's say instead of being a homebred that he was bought at auction for $600k..I say that because I would think they might be more willing to sell him if he was purchased..you brought up how good the female family is and of course he's by one of the best sires in north america..at this stage how much do you think they would want for him if there were very wealthy buyers interested..if he won this race I doubt they would part with him for almost any reasonable amount afterwards ..but a little more interesting considering offers heading into the 2nd leg..my guess would be low end in the $4-5 million range

[str]

hey str

greatest honour is going in the fountain of youth tomorrow..this was part of the comment you made reviewing his previous race in the holy bull

"The horse broke a step slow for sure and took a 1/16th to find it's early stride. That will have to stop to have a decent chance in the Derby. Keep an eye out for that"


shug gave him two 4f works eight days apart at payson park since that race..do you think part of the purpose of those works was to try and get him a little more aggressive and sharp earlier than he was for his last start?

Q. shug gave him two 4f works eight days apart at payson park since that race..do you think part of the purpose of those works was to try and get him a little more aggressive and sharp earlier than he was for his last start?

A. No. Not at all. What he has done is mimic the same schedule that he has had success with this horse with. That is... Ran on the 26th, 14 days, work a 1/2, 7 days, work 5/8ths, 8 days, work a 1/2, 6 more days, run.
Then, 14 days, work a 1/2, 8 more days, work a 1/2, 6 days later which is today, run.

The only difference is the 5/8ths which makes total sense in that the gap between races was 35 days and this one is 28 days.

All those works are keeping fitness, concentration, and general maintenance. As long as he keeps winning, do not expect the pattern to change much. If something occurs that requires a change, Shug will address that when it presents itself. Otherwise, if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

At this point the horse is plenty fit, certainly for 1 1/16th and after today, 1 1/8th for sure. When it comes to the 1 1/4 Derby, he will have had two more racers in him so that won't be a problem either. With a longer gap between the Florida Derby and the Ky. Derby, expect a 5/8ths or even a 3/4 mile work depending on the next two races.

Any sharpening for a better start will come from standing the horse at the gate a couple times which I assume he did. What that is , is taking the horse to the gate in the morning, having him walk into the gate, close both doors, let him stand in there with a gate crew guy climbing around him , just to keep him familiar with the process, and then while keeping the front door closed, quietly, open the back stall gate, NO BELL for Gods sake, and back the horse out, walk him around the gate and let him gallop away and get his daily exercise in. He probably did that twice since that last race if he was concerned with that first 1/16th. If he wasn't, he probably did none of that.


It will be interesting to see how he does leaving the gate and that first 1/16th today. I'm not saying he needs to lay closer. I'm saying he needs IMO to be more focused early. Just seems to me that if he breaks like that in the Derby he could get shuffled back to 17th which obviously makes things harder. Just my opinion but what the hell do I know. Lol.

I looked at the race and of course, off that last race, he is the class of the field on paper.

He should have pace with the one horse in there as well as the 7 horse. I see they switched to Tyler on the 7 horse. That makes total sense IMO. You always have to worry on big days, that they have over graded the rail and there is a big advantage down inside. Nothing you can do about that except worry.

The thing to remember while following a horse to the Derby is that if for instance the horse wins today, the wait until the next race becomes easier for a future bettor like yourself ( Sure hope I read that right in another thread). If he loses, a bit harder. But the most important thing to remember is that most of these horses that are pointing for the Derby, are NOT fully keyed up for todays effort. They are not built to sustain top form for multiple months. Those that he have seen do so, are simply great horses that really were not all fired up but instead, very dominate horses who simply were tons better than the others, even at 80%. One exception that comes to mind was Seattle Slew. Man, that horse was born in high gear. But great ones that went on to be super type horses were mostly at about 80% in February if pointing towards early May. Hopefully, this horse is as well.

Hope that makes sense.

Good luck to all that play today.

[str]

Q. shug gave him two 4f works eight days apart at payson park since that race..do you think part of the purpose of those works was to try and get him a little more aggressive and sharp earlier than he was for his last start?

A. No. Not at all. What he has done is mimic the same schedule that he has had success with this horse with. That is... Ran on the 26th, 14 days, work a 1/2, 7 days, work 5/8ths, 8 days, work a 1/2, 6 more days, run.
Then, 14 days, work a 1/2, 8 more days, work a 1/2, 6 days later which is today, run.

The only difference is the 5/8ths which makes total sense in that the gap between races was 35 days and this one is 28 days.

All those works are keeping fitness, concentration, and general maintenance. As long as he keeps winning, do not expect the pattern to change much. If something occurs that requires a change, Shug will address that when it presents itself. Otherwise, if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

At this point the horse is plenty fit, certainly for 1 1/16th and after today, 1 1/8th for sure. When it comes to the 1 1/4 Derby, he will have had two more racers in him so that won't be a problem either. With a longer gap between the Florida Derby and the Ky. Derby, expect a 5/8ths or even a 3/4 mile work depending on the next two races.

Any sharpening for a better start will come from standing the horse at the gate a couple times which I assume he did. What that is , is taking the horse to the gate in the morning, having him walk into the gate, close both doors, let him stand in there with a gate crew guy climbing around him , just to keep him familiar with the process, and then while keeping the front door closed, quietly, open the back stall gate, NO BELL for Gods sake, and back the horse out, walk him around the gate and let him gallop away and get his daily exercise in. He probably did that twice since that last race if he was concerned with that first 1/16th. If he wasn't, he probably did none of that.


It will be interesting to see how he does leaving the gate and that first 1/16th today. I'm not saying he needs to lay closer. I'm saying he needs IMO to be more focused early. Just seems to me that if he breaks like that in the Derby he could get shuffled back to 17th which obviously makes things harder. Just my opinion but what the hell do I know. Lol.

I looked at the race and of course, off that last race, he is the class of the field on paper.

He should have pace with the one horse in there as well as the 7 horse. I see they switched to Tyler on the 7 horse. That makes total sense IMO. You always have to worry on big days, that they have over graded the rail and there is a big advantage down inside. Nothing you can do about that except worry.

The thing to remember while following a horse to the Derby is that if for instance the horse wins today, the wait until the next race becomes easier for a future bettor like yourself ( Sure hope I read that right in another thread). If he loses, a bit harder. But the most important thing to remember is that most of these horses that are pointing for the Derby, are NOT fully keyed up for todays effort. They are not built to sustain top form for multiple months. Those that he have seen do so, are simply great horses that really were not all fired up but instead, very dominate horses who simply were tons better than the others, even at 80%. One exception that comes to mind was Seattle Slew. Man, that horse was born in high gear. But great ones that went on to be super type horses were mostly at about 80% in February if pointing towards early May. Hopefully, this horse is as well.

Hope that makes sense.

Good luck to all that play today.

One thing I failed to mention. Those 1/2 mile works are not jacking him up near the 1/2 mile pole to fly around there like some horse might do. Almost assuredly, he started galloping a little fast like a 17 then 16, then 15 sequence of 1/8th mile times before easing into the work at the 1/2 mile pole in my guess, 13, 13 12 and change and a 12 flat or 11 4/5ths type of work. That is usually what you are looking for with this situation.
Just want to give the opportunity for anyone reading this that cares to, to be able to visualize what is likely going on.

[JBEX]

Q. shug gave him two 4f works eight days apart at payson park since that race..do you think part of the purpose of those works was to try and get him a little more aggressive and sharp earlier than he was for his last start?

A. No. Not at all. What he has done is mimic the same schedule that he has had success with this horse with. That is... Ran on the 26th, 14 days, work a 1/2, 7 days, work 5/8ths, 8 days, work a 1/2, 6 more days, run.
Then, 14 days, work a 1/2, 8 more days, work a 1/2, 6 days later which is today, run.

The only difference is the 5/8ths which makes total sense in that the gap between races was 35 days and this one is 28 days.

All those works are keeping fitness, concentration, and general maintenance. As long as he keeps winning, do not expect the pattern to change much. If something occurs that requires a change, Shug will address that when it presents itself. Otherwise, if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

At this point the horse is plenty fit, certainly for 1 1/16th and after today, 1 1/8th for sure. When it comes to the 1 1/4 Derby, he will have had two more racers in him so that won't be a problem either. With a longer gap between the Florida Derby and the Ky. Derby, expect a 5/8ths or even a 3/4 mile work depending on the next two races.

Any sharpening for a better start will come from standing the horse at the gate a couple times which I assume he did. What that is , is taking the horse to the gate in the morning, having him walk into the gate, close both doors, let him stand in there with a gate crew guy climbing around him , just to keep him familiar with the process, and then while keeping the front door closed, quietly, open the back stall gate, NO BELL for Gods sake, and back the horse out, walk him around the gate and let him gallop away and get his daily exercise in. He probably did that twice since that last race if he was concerned with that first 1/16th. If he wasn't, he probably did none of that.


It will be interesting to see how he does leaving the gate and that first 1/16th today. I'm not saying he needs to lay closer. I'm saying he needs IMO to be more focused early. Just seems to me that if he breaks like that in the Derby he could get shuffled back to 17th which obviously makes things harder. Just my opinion but what the hell do I know. Lol.

I looked at the race and of course, off that last race, he is the class of the field on paper.

He should have pace with the one horse in there as well as the 7 horse. I see they switched to Tyler on the 7 horse. That makes total sense IMO. You always have to worry on big days, that they have over graded the rail and there is a big advantage down inside. Nothing you can do about that except worry.

The thing to remember while following a horse to the Derby is that if for instance the horse wins today, the wait until the next race becomes easier for a future bettor like yourself ( Sure hope I read that right in another thread). If he loses, a bit harder. But the most important thing to remember is that most of these horses that are pointing for the Derby, are NOT fully keyed up for todays effort. They are not built to sustain top form for multiple months. Those that he have seen do so, are simply great horses that really were not all fired up but instead, very dominate horses who simply were tons better than the others, even at 80%. One exception that comes to mind was Seattle Slew. Man, that horse was born in high gear. But great ones that went on to be super type horses were mostly at about 80% in February if pointing towards early May. Hopefully, this horse is as well.

Hope that makes sense.

Good luck to all that play today.

I see what you mean about keeping the horse on the same workout routine going race to race..the little subtlety of working him the extra furlong because of the 5 week layoff in his race two back ,as you said, makes perfect sense ..know from you that payson park a deep surface so he should be plenty fit

the attentiveness from the gate a separate issue and if shug feels it's necessary will school him..makes sense


yes I know you can't ask too much from them early on in the derby trail or they may be spent come derby day..so a situation where they leave something in the tank after these races is ideal if it works out that way. running well and not winning is better than wearing yourself out

a pace duel and closing to pass them without using max effort probably the ideal win scenario (ease up last 50 yards)..looking forward to the race..thanks str

[str]

I see what you mean about keeping the horse on the same workout routine going race to race..the little subtlety of working him the extra furlong because of the 5 week layoff in his race two back ,as you said, makes perfect sense ..know from you that payson park a deep surface so he should be plenty fit

the attentiveness from the gate a separate issue and if shug feels it's necessary will school him..makes sense


yes I know you can't ask too much from them early on in the derby trail or they may be spent come derby day..so a situation where they leave something in the tank after these races is ideal if it works out that way. running well and not winning is better than wearing yourself out

a pace duel and closing to pass them without using max effort probably the ideal win scenario (ease up last 50 yards)..looking forward to the race..thanks str

Gotta hope for a duel with the 1 horse and I guess the 7. If the 1 horse gets loose, the inside is better, and he gets to relax, that could be a tough out. Can't imaging Tyler would let that happen but you never know what the plan is for that horse either. Being out of gas last time turning for home, maybe they try something a little different . Although not of the same quality in all probability, it's just a race and anything can happen with the right, or wrong, setup.

[JBEX]

Gotta hope for a duel with the 1 horse and I guess the 7. If the 1 horse gets loose, the inside is better, and he gets to relax, that could be a tough out. Can't imaging Tyler would let that happen but you never know what the plan is for that horse either. Being out of gas last time turning for home, maybe they try something a little different . Although not of the same quality in all probability, it's just a race and anything can happen with the right, or wrong, setup.

I think it's a very tough scenario for the 7 and i agree hooking the 1 not a good idea..maybe take back a little if possible since the 1 isn't distance tested..that's usually not a good situation though for the stalking horse I find ..probably set it up nice for gh if the pace is fair and the 1 is not up to the distance

also saw there will be a significant wind from the southeast at 14- 17 mph with gusts up to 23..this track is north/south oriented with the grandstand facing the ocean so this could possibly be a factor..guess that would favor the speed ?

[str]

one other question..let's say instead of being a homebred that he was bought at auction for $600k..I say that because I would think they might be more willing to sell him if he was purchased..you brought up how good the female family is and of course he's by one of the best sires in north america..at this stage how much do you think they would want for him if there were very wealthy buyers interested..if he won this race I doubt they would part with him for almost any reasonable amount afterwards ..but a little more interesting considering offers heading into the 2nd leg..my guess would be low end in the $4-5 million range

Money would have to mean something to the owners. In this case, it doesn't. But... let's say it did. At this point your number seems about where I would guess. But after today it would drop in half with a so so effort, go away with a poor effort or double at least with a win. People get so crazy for the Derby, stupid money flies around this time of year for that one chance.
Crazy right?