Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str..1 more lol


I have always seemed to struggle (w/o records) at churchill and trying to figure out what might be different about it.. to me horses in extended sprint races (1 mile included) there seem to try much harder earlier than at belmont where they just seem to settle in more.. realize of the 1 turn mile tracks obviously belmont the biggest, churchill the smallest at a mile and laurel, gulfstream and aqueduct about a 1 1/8 miles...do you think the smaller dimensions at churchill might make might make the way races are run there around one turn much different than belmont?

[str]

hey str..1 more lol


I have always seemed to struggle (w/o records) at churchill and trying to figure out what might be different about it.. to me horses in extended sprint races (1 mile included) there seem to try much harder earlier than at belmont where they just seem to settle in more.. realize of the 1 turn mile tracks obviously belmont the biggest, churchill the smallest at a mile and laurel, gulfstream and aqueduct about a 1 1/8 miles...do you think the smaller dimensions at churchill might make might make the way races are run there around one turn much different than belmont?

The smaller dimensions have something to do with it but it's not that Churchill is so much smaller or tighter, it's that Belmont is so darn big. The turns are so much easier to run around at Belmont. Heck, they start the 6F races right in front of the far turn. Also, NY riders as a whole are IMO and I assume many others, the best riders in the country. I think that the combination of those things has a lot to do with what you are trying to deal with.

[JBEX]

The smaller dimensions have something to do with it but it's not that Churchill is so much smaller or tighter, it's that Belmont is so darn big. The turns are so much easier to run around at Belmont. Heck, they start the 6F races right in front of the far turn. Also, NY riders as a whole are IMO and I assume many others, the best riders in the country. I think that the combination of those things has a lot to do with what you are trying to deal with.

think it makes a lot of sense that multiple factors might be in play to make that happen.. thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str


know I've been firing away lately lol but this is one of the key things I look for and wanted your opinion on it..


parx R7 watchthebourbon (15-1)


returning in 7 days and stretching out off a line I like for that.. but the key thing for me, in addition, is how fast the sprint was that he's exiting.. it's about 4-5 lengths faster than a 6f clm12.5k n2l and the pace of that race was about 4-5 lengths slow so tough to close into.. you think the last race is a nice set up to stretch out.. imo rest of the field doesn't look to scary relatively speaking

[str]

hey str


know I've been firing away lately lol but this is one of the key things I look for and wanted your opinion on it..


parx R7 watchthebourbon (15-1)


returning in 7 days and stretching out off a line I like for that.. but the key thing for me, in addition, is how fast the sprint was that he's exiting.. it's about 4-5 lengths faster than a 6f clm12.5k n2l and the pace of that race was about 4-5 lengths slow so tough to close into.. you think the last race is a nice set up to stretch out.. imo rest of the field doesn't look to scary relatively speaking

Q. you think the last race is a nice set up to stretch out.

A. Absolutely.

A lot to like at probably 20-1.

Back in a week off two sprints which is much better than off one for the stretch out. Blinkers "ON".

You already know how I like that. Three speeds/ positions inside and two more outside and he sits 6th hopefully saving ground. Plenty of pace on paper.
Drops a little, never a bad thing. Last race looks awful but actually only got beat 2 lengths for 4th. Change of rider from a jockey that has never won more than about 35 races lifetime as he went from a 7 pound bug to no bug in a month unless the trainer rode the rider without declaring the bug at entry time to which either way I would say Yikes. Seems to run a Z pattern not so much with lengths but with position. Dropping back mid race and passing a couple late. Prime candidate for blinkers.

Good luck here. This one seems to have a real chance.

[JBEX]

Q. you think the last race is a nice set up to stretch out.

A. Absolutely.

A lot to like at probably 20-1.

Back in a week off two sprints which is much better than off one for the stretch out. Blinkers "ON".

You already know how I like that. Three speeds/ positions inside and two more outside and he sits 6th hopefully saving ground. Plenty of pace on paper.
Drops a little, never a bad thing. Last race looks awful but actually only got beat 2 lengths for 4th. Change of rider from a jockey that has never won more than about 35 races lifetime as he went from a 7 pound bug to no bug in a month unless the trainer rode the rider without declaring the bug at entry time to which either way I would say Yikes. Seems to run a Z pattern not so much with lengths but with position. Dropping back mid race and passing a couple late. Prime candidate for blinkers.

Good luck here. This one seems to have a real chance.

I was so stuck on the things I look for I missed some of the ones you pointed out like blinkers on, potential nice setup and jockey upgrade .. also noticed looking again the number of works he had at fair hill preceding his 3yo debut.. should be plenty fit.. thanks for the feedback str

[JBEX]

if you watched.. maybe the blinkers helped get him in contention early.. have to think the pace was fair with top 2 going at it.. if it was slow being a clear 3rd by multiple lengths not the best thing but he should've been closer in that scenario.. more likely he couldn't capitalize on a favorable pace scenario and just wasn't up to it

[str]

if you watched.. maybe the blinkers helped get him in contention early.. have to think the pace was fair with top 2 going at it.. if it was slow being a clear 3rd by multiple lengths not the best thing but he should've been closer in that scenario.. more likely he couldn't capitalize on a favorable pace scenario and just wasn't up to it

With that type of trip , I'm not sure the horse will be up to much other than the bottom at CT or maybe Penn. Sitting 3rd alone to duels both in front and behind you and fading after 3/4's in 1:15 is terrible. Did not see the race but looked at the chart. And 5-1? Wow.

[JBEX]

With that type of trip , I'm not sure the horse will be up to much other than the bottom at CT or maybe Penn. Sitting 3rd alone to duels both in front and behind you and fading after 3/4's in 1:15 is terrible. Did not see the race but looked at the chart. And 5-1? Wow.

I won't be aboard for his next attempt if there is one lol..really did get bet well to say the least

[JBEX]

hey str

saw a 2yo today out of a mr prospector mare.. amazed since he's class of 1970 like secretariat so rarely see him as a dam sire anymore.. turns out he died in 1999 and the dam was from his last crop in 2000..was thinking that would be almost like a horse in the early 70's being out of a man of war mare (ehh might be stretching it a bit but not much) who passed in 1947 at the age of 30..two of the greats lived very long lives.. ap indy also died a month before his 31st birthday back in feburary.. guessing 30 is a ripe old age for a horse to reach

[Easy-Rider 66]

Jockey Joe Bravo, a 13-time leading rider at Monmouth Park and board member of the Jockeys' Guild, shared his opinion of the recently announced more stringent whip rules with the Asbury Park Press this week.
New Jersey's new rule prevents riders from whipping a horse “to achieve a better placing,” while new rules in California restrict riders to two strikes in succession and six strikes in total.


“How many times have you watched a race where a horse opens up one or two lengths in the lane like he's going to win for fun, and then he puts his ears up,” Bravo told app.com. “Anyone can see the horse is looking at something and he's going to stop. But whoa, I can't hit him because I can't hit him for something other than a safety issue. Well, that is a safety issue, and am I going to get fined? And if you don't have that quick instinct to react, there could be danger.“They are changing the competitiveness of a horse race. I feel they should be respecting the gamblers, the breeder, the owner, who all invest heavily in the game.”




Hey STR: have not posted in a while but wanted to get your take on the new whip rules instituted by Monmouth Park and Cal Racing Thx in advance. Hope things are good on your end.

[JBEX]

hey str

guess who's going in the 1st (hopefully at least)..thebig you know who lol..if you remember he ran an even mid pack sprint vs $40k claimers off about a 17 month layoff on 7/29 at saratoga..then they scratched him on 8/22 in 20k route at saratoga..track was muddy but he'd run great on that in his only two attempts so not sure if that was why..you thought he'd probably expose him to the 20k level and that's it..what he's up for today @ 1 1/16 on the dirt..don't like him as a betting proposition bUT of course we've been following along for about 3 years now so just letting you know

[str]

hey str

saw a 2yo today out of a mr prospector mare.. amazed since he's class of 1970 like secretariat so rarely see him as a dam sire anymore.. turns out he died in 1999 and the dam was from his last crop in 2000..was thinking that would be almost like a horse in the early 70's being out of a man of war mare (ehh might be stretching it a bit but not much) who passed in 1947 at the age of 30..two of the greats lived very long lives.. ap indy also died a month before his 31st birthday back in feburary.. guessing 30 is a ripe old age for a horse to reach

Yes JBEX, 30 is ripe old age indeed. It is really cool to see those old classic names in bloodlines. Not sure I want to mention some of the old historic names I used to see in that line. Lol. But it really was pretty cool to see them. One of the vets that did my work was a breeder and he would point out the traits that some of those classic lines would pass along within the conformation when it appeared on one of my horses. His dad was a trainer and is 10 years older than me. So he saw all this stuff as a kid. I grew up in Wash. DC . Only horses I ever saw were the Park Police mounted horses along the canal in Georgetown. So it was really cool to be able to understand some of those traits that never would have known to notice.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

no problem str.. native dancer, nashua, bold ruler lol.. nashua (w/o looking) I believe was the dam sire of mr p.. think northern dancer as a broodmare sire wouldn't have really come into play frequently till the early 70's being a 1961 foal. oops wasn't supposed to speak on this lol.. sure you could add to the list.. yeah a vet whose father was a trainer pointing out the traits of the big guys is pretty neat

[str]

hey str

guess who's going in the 1st (hopefully at least)..thebig you know who lol..if you remember he ran an even mid pack sprint vs $40k claimers off about a 17 month layoff on 7/29 at saratoga..then they scratched him on 8/22 in 20k route at saratoga..track was muddy but he'd run great on that in his only two attempts so not sure if that was why..you thought he'd probably expose him to the 20k level and that's it..what he's up for today @ 1 1/16 on the dirt..don't like him as a betting proposition bUT of course we've been following along for about 3 years now so just letting you know

Thanks for the heads up. This price makes sense. Can't drop much more than that up there. Not sure what I'm rooting for in the way of where he finishes. Mainly rooting for a nice ending for the old guy. Whatever that might be. He deserves it.

[JBEX]

Thanks for the heads up. This price makes sense. Can't drop much more than that up there. Not sure what I'm rooting for in the way of where he finishes. Mainly rooting for a nice ending for the old guy. Whatever that might be. He deserves it.

no problem ..finished a distant 3rd..3 horses including him went off between 8-5 and 2-1 and a 17-1 wired the field..possibly a slow pace but not sure what's the norm @ 1 1/16th at belmont..nobody took him..have a hunch he's off to aftercare..sure he'll wind up at a nice place

[str]

Jockey Joe Bravo, a 13-time leading rider at Monmouth Park and board member of the Jockeys' Guild, shared his opinion of the recently announced more stringent whip rules with the Asbury Park Press this week.
New Jersey's new rule prevents riders from whipping a horse “to achieve a better placing,” while new rules in California restrict riders to two strikes in succession and six strikes in total.


“How many times have you watched a race where a horse opens up one or two lengths in the lane like he's going to win for fun, and then he puts his ears up,” Bravo told app.com. “Anyone can see the horse is looking at something and he's going to stop. But whoa, I can't hit him because I can't hit him for something other than a safety issue. Well, that is a safety issue, and am I going to get fined? And if you don't have that quick instinct to react, there could be danger.“They are changing the competitiveness of a horse race. I feel they should be respecting the gamblers, the breeder, the owner, who all invest heavily in the game.”




Hey STR: have not posted in a while but wanted to get your take on the new whip rules instituted by Monmouth Park and Cal Racing Thx in advance. Hope things are good on your end.

Hi Easy. It is great to see you back !

You lead off with a really good question. One that will take some explaining to get my point across. I will get to this tomorrow but wanted to be sure and say hello this evening. I wish nothing but the best to you and your family. Hope everyone is safe.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hi Easy. It is great to see you back !

You lead off with a really good question. One that will take some explaining to get my point across. I will get to this tomorrow but wanted to be sure and say hello this evening. I wish nothing but the best to you and your family. Hope everyone is safe.

OK STR thx. no rush. Take your time. Looking forward to your take as I know very little about the hows and whys of the situation at hand. Things good. stay safe.

[str]

New Jersey's new rule prevents riders from whipping a horse “to achieve a better placing,” while new rules in California restrict riders to two strikes in succession and six strikes in total.


How many times have you watched a race where a horse opens up one or two lengths in the lane like he's going to win for fun, and then he puts his ears up,” Bravo told app.com. “Anyone can see the horse is looking at something and he's going to stop. But whoa, I can't hit him because I can't hit him for something other than a safety issue. Well, that is a safety issue, and am I going to get fined? And if you don't have that quick instinct to react, there could be danger.“They are changing the competitiveness of a horse race. I feel they should be respecting the gamblers, the breeder, the owner, who all invest heavily in the game.”






I certainly understand what Joe is talking about and he does have a valid point when it comes to a horse not paying attention to the rider but instead " thinking, or looking" as he is running. And in some cases that could become a very dangerous situation for a rider. So with that said, let's not dance around the real reason for the consideration towards changing the whip rule. The reason is fan perception. Fans see it, and in this ever changing world we live in, more and more do not like what they see. So, because it is a business that solely depends on fans enjoying what they see, which means attending and or betting from afar, some jurisdictions are starting to try and implement rules to make the game easier on the eyes of fans.

So, lets ask a couple of questions and I will give you my best shot at honest answers.

Q. Does the whip make the horse run faster?

A. Initially,yes. It is best used as the element of surprise. But what has made this problem the problem that it is, is when fans see jocks pound away on a horse over and over and over again. My take on that is that it is stupid. Period.

I have talked about this before in here. A jockey hall of famer that I literally grew up with a barn apart at Bowie in the early 70's, told me way back then that the whip is best used as the element of surprise. NOT as a whip to beat the hell out of the horse. A horse can start to resent it after several strikes. And some horses will never respond to a whip, but instead they will sulk and refuse to extend if you hit them even once.

Q. Will the whip keep a horse from bolting or bearing out or in severely?

A. In most cases, no. If they are bolting, forget it. If they are bearing in or out riders will use it but more often than not it is out of frustration more so than fear. Riders are competitive and we all get that. But when you see a horse lugging in and the rider hits them left handed to keep them straight they have more tools than that they are using but fans for the most part do not notice them. They have shifted their hands to put severe pressure on the horse's mouth by way of the bit they are wearing. If a horse has a history of lugging in or out there is a pretty big chance they are outfitted with a bit that if needed will put pressure on the jaw and mouth that helps prevent leaning in or out.
Try it on yourself. Think in terms of running straight and then take your thumb and push real hard on one side of your face so you feel it above your jaw and below your teeth on either side about 3-4 inches from the front of your jaw. Right about on you gum line. As soon as you push hard your first thought will be, OMG. It is direct pressure and would get anybody's attention immediately. If you have tried it, see what I mean?

Q. Why do horses lug in or out?

A. Sometimes it is a habit and a bad one. Other times, the horse is trying to shift weight off of one side because of discomfort which can be up front or behind. It is a case by case situation. But either way, the trainer should have the horse outfitted with a bit that helps out with that. It can also come from being tired and, or not switching leads.


Last thing. About what Joe said of it being a safety issue when the make the lead and put their ears up. Well, yes, technically it could be. But in more cases than not, probably not so much. And that's the problem with commissions or management making rules about things they know for the most part very little about. This is something that they should be consulting with retired HOF'ers about. Not current riders who could have an agenda but riders like Pincay, McCarron, Baeza, Hawley, and so on. If the damn sport would have a commissioner, sooo many things could be done to better the game. But this state by state or track owner by track owner crap has not worked in racing at all and never has. It leads to chaos, which shows up as incompetence to the patrons. And then the racing commissions make rules and many have no idea about the game. Sure, some might but others are friends of the Governor or lawyers, car dealers or social whatevers.
It's so easy to see when you are not in the forest I guess. Or have people blowing smoke up your butt to climb a ladder. Geez I wish they would wake the hell up but if everyone always said yes to me, I would probably have a tough time thinking I might be wrong sometimes too.

So, as for the different rules IMO it's going to be a mess. Jersey has no whip but does that mean the rider can use it turned down which means taps on the shoulders by holding it like you would if let's say it was a baseball bat and they were holding it upside down? Who knows.

As for the 2 strikes in succession and 6 strikes overall rule, I go back to what I have said before. And what I have said before is what I was told by that same HOF rider that I grew up with at Bowie in 73 and 74. He said that if you hit them more than once or twice in succession, it's pretty much for show because you just don't get the same out of the 3rd, 4th and however many more that you do from the 1st or possibly the 2nd one. He said, ideally, hit them once or twice, switch sticks use that same pattern if necessary, switch back and maybe one more. After that, the rest is pretty much a waste of time. He said that almost 50 years ago. The rule probably should have been put in then. But it was a different world for sure.

I have talked before about riding left handed, meaning, using the stick left handed first, then go right, then back to left. The reason for that is simply the horse is not expecting it. It's the element of surprise as most riders ride right handed. And of course, racing position and having room to use the stick has plenty to do with it if you are riding tight, but at most venues, riders do not ride that tight like in NY for instance. The reason is for the most part, the skill of the riders. The best of the best can ride that tight. But the vast majority of riders need a little more room than that to be safe.

Hope that helps but do follow up if I missed what you were looking for.

Great to see you back Easy !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx STR. In reading your take sounds like the Cal racing rules make some sense. I do not agree with the Monmouth rules that states you can not use the whip to improve placings. And I do agree that horse racing needs a Commissioner that regulates all tracks. Stay safe up in Maryland.

[Easy-Rider 66]

After years of effort to reach the U.S. House Floor, once there, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act won in a walkover.
After passionate pleas for support of the bill from U.S. Reps. Paul Tonko, a New York Democrat, and Andy Barr, a Kentucky Republican, the bipartisan legislation that would see formation of the Horseracing Anti-Doping and Medication Control Authority to oversee the sport's equine medication and anti-doping policies and its drug testing was passed by a resounding voice vote (no opposition votes were audible).



When Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced Aug. 31 his plan to introduce similar legislation on the Senate side—adding oversight of racetrack surfaces to a previous bill—he said it could be possible, noting the bipartisan support, to quickly pass the legislation either before the November elections or in the lame duck session afterward.
After Tuesday's support in the House, the legislation (S. 4547) appears to still be on track for that timetable as it's expected to now go to the Senate. S. 4547, which is mirrored by the House bill, was introduced by McConnell, Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat; Martha McSally, an Arizona Republican; and Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat.



Hey STR: did you hear about the pending legislation? I assume you approve?

[str]

After years of effort to reach the U.S. House Floor, once there, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act won in a walkover.
After passionate pleas for support of the bill from U.S. Reps. Paul Tonko, a New York Democrat, and Andy Barr, a Kentucky Republican, the bipartisan legislation that would see formation of the Horseracing Anti-Doping and Medication Control Authority to oversee the sport's equine medication and anti-doping policies and its drug testing was passed by a resounding voice vote (no opposition votes were audible).



When Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced Aug. 31 his plan to introduce similar legislation on the Senate side—adding oversight of racetrack surfaces to a previous bill—he said it could be possible, noting the bipartisan support, to quickly pass the legislation either before the November elections or in the lame duck session afterward.
After Tuesday's support in the House, the legislation (S. 4547) appears to still be on track for that timetable as it's expected to now go to the Senate. S. 4547, which is mirrored by the House bill, was introduced by McConnell, Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat; Martha McSally, an Arizona Republican; and Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat.



Hey STR: did you hear about the pending legislation? I assume you approve?

Well, I suppose it's better than nothing Easy, which is currently what horse racing has. But it is the federal government.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong with something the federal government runs.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well, I suppose it's better than nothing Easy, which is currently what horse racing has. But it is the federal government.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong with something the federal government runs.

Yeah good point STR. LOL.

[str]

With the Preakness running today I thought it might help to remind everyone to watch the trips of the early dirt races.

Last year's Preakness had a very strong rail bias all day on dirt. It produced some very nice prices for horses that raced inside. Not necessarily speed, but inside trips. Conversely, it had horses with outside trips seemingly " bounce" which was not a bounce at all, but instead an outside 3-4 wide trip that played heavily against them.

Can you still win from the outside on a rail track? Yes, but you are playing at a disadvantage so you better be much the best.

I do not know if this will show up today or not. What I did see was that after several days off, on Thursday, the rail was a solid advantage. Yesterday, not as much which makes perfect sense. So today, if they did not grade the track, it might even favor the outside some. But they have always graded the track on Preakness eve in years past weather permitting and the weather was no problem yesterday evening to do so if they wanted to, so I will assume until proven otherwise that they did it again this year.

As for a Preakness pick, as of now, I would pick Art Collector. That pick is because of the trip that on paper has a solid chance of happening. If I see the track is playing differently, I would probably have to adjust my pick to a horse that looks like it should have an outside trip. So we will have to wait and see. On paper, it seems very competitive . If there is an edge for a certain horse, that edge might indeed be what puts them over the top.

As for the turf, a freshly mowed turf course at Pimlico had always favored speed in my time there. I have no idea of the turf length today so another thing to look for.

Good luck to all that play today. I hope this helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the info STR. Not playing horse game today but will watch and see what happens with Art Collector. GL.

[JBEX]

hey str


delaware R5 #3 casper slew (4-1)


thought interesting set of circumstances.. claimed 3 back out of a 6250n3l and he wins first out vs beaten 12.5 claimers.. then they get a little too ambitious and try a n1x allowance (what a score that've been for them) but 44-1 and obviously over his head.. now back in 16 days and spotted to win.. with money in the bank from his win this is a nice situation to be in would you say.. maybe the allowance race gave him some useful conditioning to boot?

[str]

hey str


delaware R5 #3 casper slew (4-1)


thought interesting set of circumstances.. claimed 3 back out of a 6250n3l and he wins first out vs beaten 12.5 claimers.. then they get a little too ambitious and try a n1x allowance (what a score that've been for them) but 44-1 and obviously over his head.. now back in 16 days and spotted to win.. with money in the bank from his win this is a nice situation to be in would you say.. maybe the allowance race gave him some useful conditioning to boot?

Yes. The back class got invigorated by the claim it seems. Something clicked. And the horse tried real hard last out. Seems like a wasted effort on the horses part. Looks like he was over his head. So today, no excuses. If he runs back to either race he wins.
Well spotted.

[JBEX]

Yes. The back class got invigorated by the claim it seems. Something clicked. And the horse tried real hard last out. Seems like a wasted effort on the horses part. Looks like he was over his head. So today, no excuses. If he runs back to either race he wins.
Well spotted.

yes I think the back class is a very important part of this..relatively lightly raced 4yo gelding who was competitive v's significantly better not so long ago..so the talent was there ..ok post about an hour away and we'll see how he does ..thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

belmont (tomorrow)

R4 #4 well kept secret (5-1)

2yo first time starter.. love the name for starter's, pun intended, lol.. but seriously, solid pedigree that's speed oriented top and bottom.. asmussen always can win with a firster..
what I thought was interesting was the workouts.. the extremely slow 3f breeze 3 days ago
and then 7 five furlong works all spaced exactly 7 days apart.. 2 four furlongs and a three furlong spaced 7 days apart prior to that.. all the 5f works are within a second of each other and nothing special.. i have a hunch this horse is fast (besides the name hint) and he just wanted to keep her fit and sharp.. any opinion on how he's prepped her?

[str]

hey str

belmont (tomorrow)

R4 #4 well kept secret (5-1)

2yo first time starter.. love the name for starter's, pun intended, lol.. but seriously, solid pedigree that's speed oriented top and bottom.. asmussen always can win with a firster..
what I thought was interesting was the workouts.. the extremely slow 3f breeze 3 days ago
and then 7 five furlong works all spaced exactly 7 days apart.. 2 four furlongs and a three furlong spaced 7 days apart prior to that.. all the 5f works are within a second of each other and nothing special.. i have a hunch this horse is fast (besides the name hint) and he just wanted to keep her fit and sharp.. any opinion on how he's prepped her?

Let's talk about the last work first. That work was actually a " blowout through the lane", meaning, a work to get the horse on its toes and have it sharp and attentive. It was most likely a 15,13,12 work. I'm sure she could have gone 11 and change but that would undue all that has been worked on which I will explain. And because clockers need to post 3/8ths or longer works, that's what you get. ( Really dumb rule but it was always that way when I was there.) So, the horse is on alert for something although being a firster, she's not sure what yet.

All the 7 day works are kind of typical if you are in no hurry and are simply getting the horse ready to run. Once a week ( one was 8 days but probably an off or wet track situation), can be pretty common if you are just working towards running without pointing towards an absolute date. Some trainers do it every 5 days, or 6, but 7 can fit nicely into an off day for the help being as most horses get the day off after a workout, when only half or one third of the help is there, typically a dark day, when the majority if not all the horses get a day off and only walk, not train, which coincides with the help getting a day off as well. Those that are working that day will catch twice as many horses to cover for those that are having a day off. The last gate work was months ago, which tells you she got her "OK'ed" gate card which cleared her to be entered. Probably has been back more than once to "stand and back out" which gets her to relax instead of all tight and fired up when she gets behind the gate.

I'm sure that she could have gone much faster if allowed.

It looks like no speed was intentionally put into the horse which also makes sense if she is naturally fast. Focus on relax and breath. All that makes sense as well.

That trainer is solid with babies as you noted. No reason to think she won't run well. It's all about her ability and racing luck as to who else is in there at this point barring something unusual happening.

This style of training is about not pointing for this exact race, but instead, prepping to run. Only the last short work and maybe the 5/8ths before that pointed her for today. That's not a bad thing, just wanted to note that.

[JBEX]

Let's talk about the last work first. That work was actually a " blowout through the lane", meaning, a work to get the horse on its toes and have it sharp and attentive. It was most likely a 15,13,12 work. I'm sure she could have gone 11 and change but that would undue all that has been worked on which I will explain. And because clockers need to post 3/8ths or longer works, that's what you get. ( Really dumb rule but it was always that way when I was there.) So, the horse is on alert for something although being a firster, she's not sure what yet.

All the 7 day works are kind of typical if you are in no hurry and are simply getting the horse ready to run. Once a week ( one was 8 days but probably an off or wet track situation), can be pretty common if you are just working towards running without pointing towards an absolute date. Some trainers do it every 5 days, or 6, but 7 can fit nicely into an off day for the help being as most horses get the day off after a workout, when only half or one third of the help is there, typically a dark day, when the majority if not all the horses get a day off and only walk, not train, which coincides with the help getting a day off as well. Those that are working that day will catch twice as many horses to cover for those that are having a day off. The last gate work was months ago, which tells you she got her "OK'ed" gate card which cleared her to be entered. Probably has been back more than once to "stand and back out" which gets her to relax instead of all tight and fired up when she gets behind the gate.

I'm sure that she could have gone much faster if allowed.

It looks like no speed was intentionally put into the horse which also makes sense if she is naturally fast. Focus on relax and breath. All that makes sense as well.

That trainer is solid with babies as you noted. No reason to think she won't run well. It's all about her ability and racing luck as to who else is in there at this point barring something unusual happening.

This style of training is about not pointing for this exact race, but instead, prepping to run. Only the last short work and maybe the 5/8ths before that pointed her for today. That's not a bad thing, just wanted to note that.

well I'm encouraged by what you said.. think training her like that all this time a positive and he believes she's ready.. especially the blowout 3 days ago.. from my end as I said the sprint, win early pedigree top and bottom along with the dam could run and her only runner was solid..and of course the name lol.. thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

if you are able to in R5 @ parx #7 b b's rocket (4-1) ..a 2yo first time starter
who I like but stopped working throughout the month of september after steady works in august and resumed again this month..obviously not a positive but would a horse like that be an automatic toss because of that ? obviously no way to know what the issue was but could she possibly be as good as if they had trained her up to the race with no breaks

[str]

hey str

if you are able to in R5 @ parx #7 b b's rocket (4-1) ..a 2yo first time starter
who I like but stopped working throughout the month of september after steady works in august and resumed again this month..obviously not a positive but would a horse like that be an automatic toss because of that ? obviously no way to know what the issue was but could she possibly be as good as if they had trained her up to the race with no breaks

Those works are all messed up. There must be some confusion with the clockers somewhere as to who the horse was. No way you don't work for 38 days and get your gate card to start in 47 and change. It just doesn't make any sense. Can't say how they missed some works but they did in all probability.

If the horse can run like that gate work suggests, the money will show. Can't think a 21% rider is on the horse without a solid reason as well. Adds up to a short priced speed horse I would assume going in.

Everything adds up to a solid effort today except the works from august. I would ignore that part. They cannot be right.

[JBEX]

Those works are all messed up. There must be some confusion with the clockers somewhere as to who the horse was. No way you don't work for 38 days and get your gate card to start in 47 and change. It just doesn't make any sense. Can't say how they missed some works but they did in all probability.

If the horse can run like that gate work suggests, the money will show. Can't think a 21% rider is on the horse without a solid reason as well. Adds up to a short priced speed horse I would assume going in.

Everything adds up to a solid effort today except the works from august. I would ignore that part. They cannot be right.

ok solid insight...thanks str

[str]

Just saw the result. The money showed but the horse ran poorly.

I feel bad because this I'm pretty sure this is the 2nd horse in a row that you have asked about as a firster where I did not see the distance until after the race. I assumed they were 6 furlong races or 5 1/2. This one was 7/8ths . Pretty sure the last one was as well.
For the record, I feel as though any firster that has been pointed for a solid effort first out will NOT run 7/8ths in it's 1st race. Typically the condition book will alternate 6 and 7 furlongs every about 2 weeks. Trainers see these races 4-6 weeks before they run. Getting a baby ready to run 3/4's and 7/8ths is totally different. Most times, if the trainer is looking to pop 1st out, they will wait for the 6 furlong race.

I would always be at least a bit skeptical of a 7/8ths firster with a speed pedigree. Might be different if they are bred to go long but if you are thinking speed, I doubt I would trust them at that funky distance for a firster. And if they ARE bred to go long, 7/8ths can be a nice way to start but most times they are looking for 2 turns for the improvement.

Sorry I missed that JBEX.