he's got one tomorrow in R3 whose last workout was also 5 days ago.. that one was working regularly (sharply) at fair hill since 5/20.. last race (3/6) he ran a close 2nd at penn in a n1x ot..numbers from that race fit well here.. robertino diodoro has a 3/5 ml favorite
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Wish I had seen the last posts earlier.
One thing I should have posted to remind players. I know I've said it before.
There is no practicing at Saratoga. All the practicing has already happened.
Everybody pushes hard to get off to a hot start there. If they can get noticed, owners will take note. It can mean the world to trainers AND riders to get off to a hot start in the first week .
Keep looking for it.
Nobody gives a horse a race at Saratoga.Comment -
so for a solid trainer like him a win like that with a firster might pick him up a good client ...also as you've said before i'm guessing that horse is worth quite a bit now ?Comment -
It could certainly have owners watching moving forward which I doubt they were doing before yesterday.
There is no other place that I have ever been that is like the Saratoga meet. It's like how the Super Bowl is. Just over the top.
As for the value of the horse? Sure. Value is crazy high this morning. Don't know about figures or whatever parameter people will use, which will certainly matter but it's fair to say the horse will be considered for the Hopeful there in about a month. At least I would assume so.
Lastly, I think it needs to be said that you picking out that firster yesterday was a great job. Yeah, maybe you over thought it a bit and said what you said late, maybe because he was so cold on the board. But a Md. firster from Mike's barn WILL be cold on the board up there typically. At least until yesterday. They will get more play now, after that effort.
That was a very nice call on the pedigree , works and it made perfect sense . You just got sidetracked on another discussion we had had about when you ship one, often times the trainer ships two. That holds at most venues, but as I said , not Saratoga.
Hey, this game is live and learn. And while you were very close to nailing that horse, it fell off a bit late. I give you all the credit for finding it in the first place. Not many can say that. Well done JBEX. Keep up the very good work my friend.Last edited by str; 07-17-20, 07:43 AM.Comment -
yeah I was thinking about the money part afterwards.. no knock against trombetta but he's an out of town trainer, a very solid one, but not necessarily a guy who the words going to be out on.. maybe one of the good midwestern trainers who more frequently run there like amoss, romans, kenneally, arnold etc might attract more attention if they have something good.. asmussen and cox are as obvious as the NY regulars so they don't count
the van ride other horse angle doesn't apply here lol.. try to remember that.. we'll see how he gets bet today but I'm sure a lot of the value you'd get if yesterday's didn't run well will be gone.. I like whst he has today so should be interesting
appreciate the good words and your feedback as always strComment -
the other one in the schuylerville was kind of along the same lines.. very well credentialed coming in (at least imo) but because she's trained by an out of towner who's not recognized on a national level (trombetta definitely more of a name imo) she goes off at 19-1Comment -
The biggest name riders and trainers will always be overbet. Just comes with the territory no matter where you are.
What you have to do, as you well know, is decide that yes, you will lose some times because of the very hot rider or trainer but overall you will cash for a higher ROI in the long run trying to beat those over bet types. It is an approach to betting that you have to be comfortable with obviously.
That's not to say you can't split the difference and sometimes go with the shorter price and sometimes take a stand against. Personally, what I have found as a medium to that is either take the longshot knowing that it will be plus ROI over time or, if I take the heavy favorite, deciding that I just can't see the horse losing, and I will play exactas with a horse or two underneath only. Yes, sometimes the favorite wins and you miss the bet, but I just can't play bet down favorites as a rule by themselves. Over time, I am confident the exactas that have hit have out performed the short win prices.
The other thing that players have to be careful of is increasing the bet because the horse is low odds. That never made sense to me. That's how you can get caught speeding (losing too much). That is not an option in my book no matter the sport. It takes discipline but managing money always does.
Only thing worse , again IMO, is that stuff JJ talks about like getting even on Sunday so you don't have a negative week. That is statistically the worst thing you can do. Weeks mean nothing, or a day at the track means nothing. It's the overall performance that is what matters. Showing a profit short term does nothing. Showing one long term does.
Kinda got off track JBEX but hopefully someone that reads this will be better off for it.Comment -
yes when you play a lot of mid to high odds horses bad streaks are inevitable..I try to mix it up but in the end my under 5-1''s more than likely not going to yield anything special, at least that's what it seems like to me..it's cash flow (understand with me it's all hypothetical) ..also gives you a little confidence going forward that you have might some idea what you're doing lol
I agree with the exacta strategy on occasion and have advocated that for a long time..you will get burnt sometimes but also think about how many times you would have collected a much better return by having the favorite(s) on top of that good price horse in exactas..when to use it ..well that's handicapping lolLast edited by JBEX; 07-18-20, 10:32 AM.Comment -
Both racing and humanity lost one helluva person last month. His name was Frank Alexander and he passed at the age of 82. He was a trainer for 42 years. His big name horse was Cherokee Run who was an eclipse award winning sprinter that won the Breeders Cup sprint in 1994. And as great an accomplishment as that was, my story about him came many years earlier and was not about a horse of his, but about the kind of person he was.
I met Frank at Pimlico in 1976. I had just started training 10 horses and was about 3 weeks into my career. Needless to say, I was green as grass. Being young, as I have written in here before, I didn't really have anyone I could go to to ask about the political side of being a trainer or the processes that customers never see or hear about. Some of those can be a tough lessens unless there is someone to explain certain nuances. For me, Frank became that guy. He seemed to welcome the opportunity.
I was stabled in the 1st barn on the old side of Pimlico if any of you have ever been there or seen pictures and Frank was directly across the way. Our outfits basically looked towards each other. I shared a barn with Hall of Famer Henry Clark who was pretty old by then. And while he was really nice, it felt weird going to some one of his caliber and age to ask what were in hindsight pretty simple questions. And because I fell a bit out of favor with my mentor for a while right during that period of time, after meeting Frank, he became that guy. He was so nice to me and explained things so well. He was a gentleman trainer who in my eyes dripped of class. He kind of took me under his wing for those 4 months, explaining about the racing secretary's office, entries, getting hustled to fill races, dealing with the GM, jocks agents, stall applications and all that stuff. If you are left to learn all that on your own, it's a tough road to hoe. He made sure that I avoided that tough road as much as could be expected.
After those 4 months I shipped out and went to Bowie, and basically followed the circuit around for pretty much my entire career. He stayed at Pimlico year round. So the daily talks went away but the lessons he showed me did not. In the following years, I was stabled in other parts of Pimlico as my outfit grew while he stayed where he always was, in that 2nd barn on the old side. I did still see him probably every week or two, but it was in passing when he or I was running a horse or something like that. We stayed very good friends but you all know how it is. It's never quite the same as when you were stabled across from each other daily.
Years later he got Cherokee Run and by then had moved his outfit to NY permanently I'm pretty sure. I was so happy for him and he did a great job training that horse. And while we saw less and less of each other, the friendship never wavered. I always went out of my way to say hello when we crossed paths as did he.
The last time I saw Frank was 2012 at Saratoga. I had been out of the game for over ten years and had not seen him for at least that long. I told Tony D. to get me into the paddock for a race Frank had a horse in and while I had no credentials to get in, Tony and I walked right in like we owned the place. After Frank gave his jock a leg up, I went over to him and said hello. He turned around and lit up with that smile he always wore. Blurting out my name, we shook hands and talked for a minute or two. It was so so good to speak with him. I did tell him in those short minutes how much I had appreciated what he had done for me all those years ago and like typical Frank, he humbled his way around the topic, but he heard me, and I am sure glad I had the chance to say it. He told me he only had several horses and retiring was on his mind but I didn't realize for another year or two, that he retired shortly thereafter. Frank won 997 races in his career. And while that is quite an achievement, along with his handling of Cherokee Run, the person he was seemingly everyday, at least in my mind, tells the story of who Frank Alexander was.
I have to think that anybody that has had the good fortune to find any level of success in any occupation, as I had, can think back to a handful of people that helped them along the way. And while my level is no great shakes, I did all right. And for me, Frank is one of those people I think of when I think back. He was all class, as kind as they come, and I will always consider him a true friend. Now that he's gone, I'm really happy I was able to actually say to him what we both knew but never spoke of. As true a gentleman trainer as you can get.
I thought it was noteworthy for everyone that reads this thread and enjoys the racing game to know who Frank was if you already didn't. So thanks for taking the time to read this.
Rest in peace Frank and thank you, one more time for everything you did for me.Last edited by str; 07-26-20, 10:27 AM.Comment -
sorry to hear str..a name i saw for years in the pp's and from a handicapping perspective thought was a solid trainer ..wasn't aware he started in maryland..sounds like someone who really helped you out in your early days ..as you said these are the types' of people who are invaluable to have around with whatever new challenges you're taking onComment -
hey str
our old friend is back in R6 @ saratoga..you probably would guess it
#6 thebigfundamental (6-1)
last raced at parx 3/19..up for a 40k tag..ran well twice here in 2017 (win and a close 3rd)
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yeah poor effort especially considering he's won off a very similar long layoff before..the shortest distances he'd run before this were 1 turn routes in ny and florida and now he runs him at 6.5f ..he's 7yo ?? I think that might be it..todd owns him in partnership with his dad (as we've talked about)..with all the money he makes and how well this horse ran for him over his short career you'd think maybe even if he were capable of running for around 25k he wouldn't want to risk seeing him descend down the scale with a differnet owner..don't want him up at finger lakes as a 9yo..maybe i'm too sentimental but this is definitely not a typical situation for todd to deal withComment -
well short career not really a good description..over 5 years he raced 8 times going 3-3-2 and winning over $200k..his worst 3rd was by <6 lengths with a good corresponding figure..all the other races that he lost were by < 2 lengths..i'd have to think this is a special horse to himComment -
If he runs him for a quarter, that would probably be as low as he goes. If he lost him, he could claim him back to retire him or purchase him privately. Guess it is impossible to know exactly how he feels about all this. Either way, he probably ends up sending him to Old Friends or another retirement center. Soundness certainly plays a role as well. Can't imagine he takes any chances at all with him.Comment -
should have thought of that (reclaim).. I guess that happens on occasion in situations like this... I agree if he can be a useful horse for $25k but lower let him live the good life.. have a hunch something's not right this time especially because they ran him in a sprint.. guess only way to know is to notice him in the entries or check equibase every month or so.. going to keep an eye out for him.. thanks strComment -
hey str
I played a horse today whose last race was at belmont.. it (last race) was a oc62.5/n2x @ 7f on the dirt.. my horse was on the lead in 44 4/5 and lost by <2 lengths and the final time was 1:20 2/5..realize pace figures isn't exact science but it rated my horse about 4 lengths slower than the pace par going that fast early.. so obviously a lightning fast surface.. is it possible that a natural speed horse might not like a surface that's that glib?Comment -
This will be kind of a broad answer. No two surfaces are typically alike. 44 4/5ths is indeed fast but it has to be all about HOW the horse is doing that. In hand, pinned inside, running off, controlling outside? It's all about relaxed, breathing, exerting energy it shouldn't be, etc.
Guess I'm trying to say it's not how fast but how it is fast. Hope that makes sense. They finished up in 35 3/5 so they weren't exactly crawling home.
Plenty of speed horses can have feet that do not appreciate that fast, therefore hard or packed, or floated but not sloppy, like right before a storm, surfaces. Was the horse grey or chestnut by any chance? Have white stockings and therefore white feet? Those types are more prone to tender feet but enough darker horses are as well. Just wondering and trying to put a puzzle together. I would look there second after looking at HOW the horse did what he did.
So the answer has to be yes, some horses will not thrive on that hard/ packed a track.
Kind of an all over the place answer but hope it helps somewhat.Comment -
without watching the race 6 post **2nd by 1/2 * *1st by 1/2**2nd by head ** 2nd by 1 3/4
comment 2 wide, spar 2X, 2nd best.. heavy weight fight assuming it was one other horse he was battling.. not a gray and not sure about the feet.. the main part though is can a really fast surface sometimes affect even a big time speed horse.. with normal pace figures should have been to the half sub 44 on that surface.. hard to fathom although this is just short of and on occasion can be a stakes quality fieldComment -
hey str
parx R5 is a 2yo msw @ 4.5f..saw a horse I like and noticed how uniform his works were leading up to the race.. they're all first time starters except 1 (not mine)..
all at prx
7/13.. 50 2/5 b
7/20.. 50 b
7/27.. 49 3/5 bg
just thought it was interesting the spacing and improved exactly 2 ticks each time ending with a gate work
R5 #9 he's a shooter 8-1
obviously post may not be a positive although he is outside everybody.. but at 4.5f he would need some early lick to get position.. does have way above average speed and win early pedigree and the trainer is excellent with debutersLast edited by JBEX; 08-03-20, 08:18 AM.Comment -
Love the post position. The box for a firster , albeit a shorter run to the far turn , is ideal for a horse that should show some speed early. If all else makes sense and it sounds like it does, the outside post is a last one in first one out opportunity. And if not, an immediate stalking position.Comment -
hey str
R6 saratoga.. msw turf route .. bill mott has a big pedigree first time starter who worked 2 bullets leading up to the race.. kind of strange for him don't you think? guess the horse must just do it on his own and they don't want to fight himComment -
Yes. That must be all horse doing that. As you know, he is not in to time, but relax and finish. More interested in development than flash 1st out.
The horse might be a bit keyed up for it's first start if the works are trying to tell us something whereas many of Mott's will not be. Interesting to watch in the paddock and warming up. That is the kind of situation that Maggie might pick up on. If so, and if the horse does not finish up today, a playback might be in order as most horses if overly stimulated with the paddock and 1st race, will learn and be much more professional 2nd time around, thus saving energy for the 1/4 pole where it is needed.
Nice catch JBEX.Comment -
hey str
lacey has one in R1 @ saratoga.. couple of interesting things I noticed are..
the debut race she exited at laurel last year was extremely fast and stumbled at the start..
both efforts up there last year were solid and the figure she earned on the fast track was very good for a 2yo..both horses who finished in front of her in that race came back to win next out
the two races this year were useful and now she drops and spots her reasonablyComment -
Sorry for the delay in responding JBEX.
I saw the form beforehand and the horse looked like she belonged. Then saw the chart and while she didn't exactly run bad, they had to be somewhat disappointed only beating one horse. The public bet on her which tells you she was spotted correctly but she just never fired like many expected. I saw she was claimed by Michelle Nevin, a former Dick Dutrow disciple. Having seen that type of transition from the Gaudet system to Dickie's system,( not only first hand but with other trainers as well,) which I have to think is not far off from her father's, and knowing that Michelle's system is pretty close to her mentor's as well, it will be interesting to see how the horse does 1st off the claim. Of course, the physical end of things from how the horse came out of the race is a big factor but if there is no down side effect from her last race, so all things being equal I guess, I would expect two things. I would expect the horse to be spotted in a winning situation on paper, and I would expect Michelle to have the horse ready to fire.
I don't know Michelle's stats on first off the claim but my guess , especially with this one and the way the horse ran, would be that she runs very well when she runs back. Probably at Belmont or out of town if a big drop is in order but wherever it is, I will be surprised if the horse does not run very well. The transition from the former's system to the new system has had decent success , of course, I am going back about 30-40 years or more. Lol. But as they say, somethings never change, and I doubt this would.
It does not matter when it happened to see that horses coming from a barn that trains aggressively that did not run so well last out, typically thrive at least early on when put into a barn that trains somewhat lighter. This is especially true with fillies.
Thanks for the heads up and if you see the horse in, please try and let me know. Thanks JBEX.Comment -
no problem str.. great info there and it'll certainly be the optimum time to try to cash a bet next out with her performance yesterday .. by what your saying ( the patient approach) probably see her at belmont if she's ok..
really talented last year and wouldn't be surprised if she does well with her.. don't know if you noticed that every horse in that race was claimed.. the fox analysts (not sure if amoss was there) commented that's a rarity.. thanks and I'll try to stable ( I always seem to struggle with that).. let you know if I see herComment -
barclay tagg doesn't seem like the most comfortable guy in front of the camera.. read his mentor was the same way lolComment -
I'm sure it was painful to watch. Lol.
No, Barclay is not a camera guy. Old school Whiteley all the way.
I'm sure many would say he's a miserable old goat. Until I got to know him, that's what I thought.
Actually a really good guy but all business.
No night life for Barclay. When he makes it rain, he's going stall to stall topping off the water buckets at 8:30 Saturday night with a hose. Lol.
But no question, you would leave impressed with him if you ever got the chance to sit down with him.
All business, all horses, all detail, everyday. That's just who he is. I have nothing but respect for the guy.
The HOF is waiting for him. Should come soon. He deserves it.Comment -
yeah just get that impression about him.. I told you (although you might have known anyway) that I read an old ny times (I think it was that paper) article when a reporter asked frank whiteley if damascus slept well the night prior to the derby and he answered "how would I know I didn't sleep with him" and stormed away.. too funny
be rooting for tiz the law.. running a 109 beyer as easy as he in the travers did is amazing.. think he's a superstar talentComment -
hey str
have run into this situation before and wanted your opinion..linda rice who's having a great meet and overall a very solid trainer ran two horses (separate entries) in R3 @ saratoga..her main jock lezcano* rode both of theses horses prior (one last 2 starts, other last 4 starts)..both imo solid on paper..this time the higher price (w/ dylan davis) won @ 8-1 ..her other @ 3-1 got out a little slow to be fair..so would a fair way to interpret this that the better chance over time will be with the regular jockey (assuming the other is a lower % jock) but that doesn't mean the other is an auto toss..she has two horses ready to go at the same time and level and has to find another jockey ..think overall from a value perspective the "other jockey" might be a better bet as most think* this way in this situationComment -
I have heard about this since they split entries. Much of the talk is people thinking the trainer might have held back the favorite to cash a ticket and while that is absurd, I totally get the mindset. I mean, who betting at the track wouldn't think they died and went to heaven if they could do that. So I do understand their mindset. But from a pure angle, I would never recommend that.
That said, often times, the horse the regular rider chooses gets overbet and the other half gets underbet. That creates value and from THAT perspective, absolutely. So it's all how you want to look at it. And any serious player should look at it this way.
What I would say is: Always look for the value. A player will stay in the game a long time doing that. Do NOT focus on the trainer betting angle ( not saying you do at all, but enough do that I try and discourage that mainly because the percentage of that happening is miniscule, and at Saratoga, non existent. ).
Good question JBEX.
Thanks.Comment
