Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

Hey Str

Like a horse in the 2nd at Belmont tomorrow trained
by David Jacobson. 3yo claimed for 35k at Saratoga
in his last start 8/9 and running for the same tag today.
Shows only 1 slow 3F breeze a week ago at AQU.Would
this be cause for concern to you or you think they've
galloped and jogged him into shape. Probably good sign
he's not dropping him below the tag as he often does

[JBEX]

Not that it matters but just in case others look in.. It's the 3rd
race (not the 2nd) and the horse is #6 el oh el... sorry

[str]

Hey Str

Like a horse in the 2nd at Belmont tomorrow trained
by David Jacobson. 3yo claimed for 35k at Saratoga
in his last start 8/9 and running for the same tag today.
Shows only 1 slow 3F breeze a week ago at AQU.Would
this be cause for concern to you or you think they've
galloped and jogged him into shape. Probably good sign
he's not dropping him below the tag as he often does

Any way you can show me the form on this horse?
Off 2 months and one slow work which is only in there to keep the public happy. It's a crap rule because it is supposed to help the public but only hurts the public with confusion. Been that way since they implemented it way back.
Couple of questions.
Did the horse come from a NY outfit when claimed?
I ask because if the clockers do not know who it is, the horse could have been reported by the clockers as a different horse mistakenly. It is there best guess on markings of each horse unless the trainer identified him to the clockers. He could have worked bullets and gone mistakenly under a different name although highly unlikely but it happened in Md. for years. But who knows. Thats why I ask about the previous trainer. Did the clockers know the horse from another NY outfit?
Is he fronts 'ON"? You will need to observe that prior to the race.
Does this trainer do that regularly?
Was the previous trainer worth a damn?
Is the rider a jock this guy typically rides in these type spots?
Does that jock regularly ride for Jacobson?
The slow work is not a concern from the time standpoint, let's face it, if I 2 minute lick a horse ( 15 per 1/8th) for a mile and then finish in 3/8s in a slow time , is that a bad move? Absolutely not! But if I roll him out there and he jogs back to the 7/8s pole and works 3/8s in a slow time , is that a weak move? Absolutely!
So I need more info and do not have a form.
I wont leave for work before 9 tomorrow so let me know and I will follow up.
Not necessarily a good sign he's not going lower, there might not have been many options and that guy has a ton of claimers right? If so, he might have had 3 other horses for the 20K and this guy might need a race before dropping and getting the dough for 20K in 2 weeks.
Remember, it's a numbers game if a trainer has too many horses for the same spot. I would bet that he has one in all other cheaper claiming races for 3 year olds only( if thats the condition, this time of year 3 year olds "only" is tougher and tougher to find as they try and combine the 3 year olds with olders to make bigger fields.) either last week when it was written or next week when it is written.
All this will be true if indeed the horse was a bit sore and needs a race to get fit again. If the horse was not recognized by the clockers and is dead fit, he probably wins easily as that guy gets it done with claims 1st time back I would have to imagine. He wins too many races to just go through the motions, right?

[Slimpickens]

He claimed the horse from trainer Michelle Nevin who was a 17% trainer at the time of the claim in August. David Cohen is the rider. Over the past 30 days he has ridden for Jacobsin 30 times and won 6. $2 roi of $1.72. The horse broke his maiden in March in a maiden claimer 50k at Gulfstream.

[JBEX]

Wow. Somehow had a hunch that this wasn't gonna be a simple answer..
Unfortunately I can't get you the drf pp's.. Horses 4th start on NY circuit ,
so he probably didn't sneak past the clockers. If that is the case does that
mean he may not be fit enough? Far as does the trainer regularly work them
this lightly off a short layoff not sure but believe it might be the case from
what I remember (realize that's a vague answer). He regularly drops them 1st
off the claim which is why I mentioned he's running at the same level.. Seems like
something there's not an easy answer to unless you pay more attention to details
which admittedly I don't.. Appreciate your thorough answer and probably gonna wager
on him anyway..

One other interesting note. Condition is 3+Clm 35000B
or 4yo N2L /3yo open.. Whole field is 3yo which I've never
seen before in this kind of race.. realize this has nothing to
do with evaluating my horse

[Slimpickens]

Try copy and paste not sure if it will work. They are brisnet pp's.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=3&param1=398574&param2=2070&param3=621

[str]

Wow. Somehow had a hunch that this wasn't gonna be a simple answer..
Unfortunately I can't get you the drf pp's.. Horses 4th start on NY circuit ,
so he probably didn't sneak past the clockers. If that is the case does that
mean he may not be fit enough? Far as does the trainer regularly work them
this lightly off a short layoff not sure but believe it might be the case from
what I remember (realize that's a vague answer). He regularly drops them 1st
off the claim which is why I mentioned he's running at the same level.. Seems like
something there's not an easy answer to unless you pay more attention to details
which admittedly I don't.. Appreciate your thorough answer and probably gonna wager
on him anyway..

One other interesting note. Condition is 3+Clm 35000B
or 4yo N2L /3yo open.. Whole field is 3yo which I've never
seen before in this kind of race.. realize this has nothing to
do with evaluating my horse

Thanks Slim ! It worked but I have to admit that looking at Brisnet is like trying to read Chinese too me. Lol. I am an old school DRF guy but Brisnet did answer plenty of questions.
The clockers know this horse well. No problems there. I don't know if its this trainers style to back off new claims that were worked every 5-6 days by there previous trainers. That is what I did often times and more times than not, the horses loved it, especially if they were a bit underweight. It gave them new life and energy and allowed them to gain 60-80 pounds which if underweight is a really good thing.
While losing fitness could come into play if indeed this is all about soreness and needing time off to get right, I would tend to think that he is plenty fit given his racing pattern and probably not very tough to keep fit. Some horses are just easy to keep fit while others are not. Just like people.
Would like to see this race in DRF but from what I see, ( I think I see) this race is filled with weak horses, none of which are worth near that much. With that said, the horse that gets a preferable trip might very well be the winner.
If a pace sets up, this horse can take advantage. The new barn should spring him to life if he has life in him at all. So, unless fronts are on, ( dont know if this trainer does that very often but assuming he does not) and unless he warms up terribly, he probably runs fine.
I did notice the outside horse is a fainthearted speed type and has won at this one turn distance before. Seems if he gets the lead , he gets brave. Having the box( outside post that should control the pace and keep his right eye clear , thus giving him a will to run on through the lane), even though he is cheap, he could surprise at a decent price. Saw where it said outside posts have a bad % but out of the chute, I find that hard to believe. Maybe it is though, I am not at all up to speed on NY racing from day to day. Maybe Mikemca has some thoughts on the race or others that pay attention daily.
The condition is interesting. Never had that back in the day. That condition makes it fairer for a 3 year old to continue to compete in the fall of his 3 year old year. I like it!
Wish I could help more, and did not mean to confuse with a lot of questions but I needed an overview to correctly try and help.

Great question, hope it helps and good luck today. I will watch the results on this one.

Q. One other interesting note. Condition is 3+Clm 35000B
or 4yo N2L /3yo open.. Whole field is 3yo which I've never
seen before in this kind of race.. realize this has nothing to
do with evaluating my horse[/QUOTE]

A. Actually , I think it does. Lets face it, barring a turn around from Jacobson,this horse has not shown much, but... the whole field has not shown much so this race is like a drop in class ability wise, without dropping down in money. That goes for most of them in here so it gives several a chance to appear to " jump up in ability" without really doing so. I have to think that if these types ran against a 3 and up group for 25K with some old multiple winning " salty old dogs" in there, they would all get trounced.
Best of luck JBEX and thanks again Slim!

[JBEX]

Think I understand what you meant by saying the workout
time may not necessarily be bad. It depends on what the
horse did prior to being clocked and I'm sure there's
probably other factors too. I'm a small bettor so I'll just
take my chances with this guy. Learned a lot from your
post and got to look at the brisnet pp's which are quite
impressive... thanks to both of you

[Slimpickens]

I prefer DRF as well str. i use Drf Fromulator for NYRA but dont know how I would post that on here.

As for the race in question today the number 8 is actually on my horses to watch list and I think he has a small shot if he gets clear but thats a big if with the presence of the 4 and 5. Ultimately I think the favorite #1 will prove to be too strong in the stretch especially if there is a fair track and any sort of speed duel. The horse Jbex likes should get 1st run on the tiring speed though. Good luck today!!

[str]

I prefer DRF as well str. i use Drf Fromulator for NYRA but dont know how I would post that on here.

As for the race in question today the number 8 is actually on my horses to watch list and I think he has a small shot if he gets clear but thats a big if with the presence of the 4 and 5. Ultimately I think the favorite #1 will prove to be too strong in the stretch especially if there is a fair track and any sort of speed duel. The horse Jbex likes should get 1st run on the tiring speed though. Good luck today!!

Just watched the race. Here is what I saw.

The 8 only broke OK and with the box, that is totally unacceptable if you are a fainthearted one dimensional speed horse with speeds inside. He was done after an 1/8th of a mile.
The 6 WAS fronts "ON". A huge negative. He warmed up choppy from what little I could see but he was very nervous and washy, so much so that the rider had his feet out of the stirrups for the last 3 minutes of the warm up. ( That is a last ditch effort to get the horse to reserve energy and calm down before loading in the gate). The 6 broke well but had little left for the lane and was finishing with very high knee action thus hitting the ground very hard. Although a small % of horses simply run that way, it would be fair to say that the reason he was doing that was he was shifting his weight due to a nagging injury that is directly affecting his performance. Those front bandages were not up high but only 3/4 s of the way up the tendon . That strongly suggests that the horse is running down up front, or, getting friction burns on the backs of his front ankles. While running down is common behind, running down up front is caused 90% of the time because of a soreness that has the horse changing his stride to try and stay comfortable. Thus the huge negative when fronts are added.
With the layoff, the fronts on 1st time, and the bad action through the lane, the washy warm up in 60 degree temps, etc. the answer is now clear. He was given that time off because the trainer had no choice .

[slayer14]

hi anyone have a free stream to watch the woodbine races, thanks

[Easy-Rider 66]

hi anyone have a free stream to watch the woodbine races, thanks

Woodbine.com

[JBEX]

Great commentary on the horse str. So what do you think he'll do with the horse now?Run him at a lower level and hope he gets claimed. Give him time to heal if that's possible.. Sell him privately to run at a lesser track..
curious what your thoughts are on this!!

[str]

Great commentary on the horse str. So what do you think he'll do with the horse now?Run him at a lower level and hope he gets claimed. Give him time to heal if that's possible.. Sell him privately to run at a lesser track..
curious what your thoughts are on this!!

Without knowing the exact problem, but there is little doubt one exists, it would be a pure guess at this point.

I am not sure how much lower NY racing goes for a 3 year old this time of year. I also do not follow the trainer well enough to know if he has a string at another track or not. If he did, that would be the logical move . Hard to imagine that anyone would claim a 3 year old this time of year with bad recent form , the obvious gap for necessity, the lack of works, fronts on, etc. If they watched the replay of the race the other day, they would see the same thing I did, that is, a horse hitting the ground real hard.

Giving him time to heal could be an option but some injuries clean up great while others is a 50-50 prop and time is money. Along with the typical 20% price devaluation that hits many 3 year olds of claiming value when they turn 4 years old, time is no bargain.

Every trainer has a "go to" trainer at a lesser track if they only stable and race at one track( don't know if that's the case). Someone that follows NY racing must know who this go to trainer is. You can sell them to that trainer, send them to that trainer and the owners continue to own and try and get out that way, or a few other options.

With a horse like this, he is a n/w of 2 lifetime. If for instance this horse went to Charles Town, he would in all probability dominate a n/w of 2 allowance field going 1 1/16th. He nets about 11K after everything. Do it again in a n/w of 3 with the same result.
Then run n/w of 4 lifetime for 12,500. Probably net 9K . If claimed, you have 43K and probably lose 5 k total for the deal. Of course, that is easier said than done but because he has those conditions, he still have value.

It just all depends on what is wrong, can he run with it, can it be fixed or only managed, etc. But as long as he has those n/w conditions, he carries a value.

There is always the slim chance that he has always hit the ground hard and he merely tired from not being fit. While that is a stretch, it could indeed be true. Again, without knowing the horse at all and not being able to spend any time around him, it's a best guess. One thing is for sure, the trainer knows how to get it done. He wins at a high rate and runs them in winning spots. What ever he comes up with, he will have given it a lot of thought. That, I know for sure. Been there, done that.

Keep an eye on the horse and let me know if and when he runs back.

[DanL32]

Quick question... I see the pedigrees and racing records of some of these fillies and mares at finger lakes, and they have a claiming price of 4,500. Why don't guys just take these horses and start their breeding career? It seems like a huge bargain compared to the prices at auction. Maybe I am completely wrong here though. Any insight?

[str]

Quick question... I see the pedigrees and racing records of some of these fillies and mares at finger lakes, and they have a claiming price of 4,500. Why don't guys just take these horses and start their breeding career? It seems like a huge bargain compared to the prices at auction. Maybe I am completely wrong here though. Any insight?

Back in the 70s what you describe is exactly what happened all the time. Claiming mares that had solid pedigree were scooped up all the time. The broodmare market crashed and burned , I don't recall exactly when, but early 80s rings a bell. Once it did, well bred mares were a dime a dozen. A lot of people lost a lot of money. You could not give a horse like that away. As a result, it is common to see what you describe .
Over the years, as breeders aged out, many families with siblings that were not interested in the game because of the depressed market that was around for years and years after the crash, opted to sell the land as it's value soared, especially along the east coast. So, farms dried up. This was certainly the case in Md. Maybe not as much in NY because of the lucrative NY Bred purses. Also, the costs of carrying mares soared to the point that it had to be a labor of love, not wanting to make a buck. Making money with cheap mares was impossible. Nobody would buy your baby. Even today, the nice horses that look the part go for MUCH more than they should while mildly inferior horses can go for much less than anticipated. Buying a yearling for 10k or less can be done everyday and you get MUCH more breeding wise than you did back in the day. You can really get some nicely bred yearlings for under 20k.

Your thought is spot on though. You would think that you could find a nice broodmare that way. Some people still do this but what was once common place is now rare.

Great question.

[JBEX]

Without knowing the exact problem, but there is little doubt one exists, it would be a pure guess at this point.

I am not sure how much lower NY racing goes for a 3 year old this time of year. I also do not follow the trainer well enough to know if he has a string at another track or not. If he did, that would be the logical move . Hard to imagine that anyone would claim a 3 year old this time of year with bad recent form , the obvious gap for necessity, the lack of works, fronts on, etc. If they watched the replay of the race the other day, they would see the same thing I did, that is, a horse hitting the ground real hard.

Giving him time to heal could be an option but some injuries clean up great while others is a 50-50 prop and time is money. Along with the typical 20% price devaluation that hits many 3 year olds of claiming value when they turn 4 years old, time is no bargain.

Every trainer has a "go to" trainer at a lesser track if they only stable and race at one track( don't know if that's the case). Someone that follows NY racing must know who this go to trainer is. You can sell them to that trainer, send them to that trainer and the owners continue to own and try and get out that way, or a few other options.

With a horse like this, he is a n/w of 2 lifetime. If for instance this horse went to Charles Town, he would in all probability dominate a n/w of 2 allowance field going 1 1/16th. He nets about 11K after everything. Do it again in a n/w of 3 with the same result.
Then run n/w of 4 lifetime for 12,500. Probably net 9K . If claimed, you have 43K and probably lose 5 k total for the deal. Of course, that is easier said than done but because he has those conditions, he still have value.

It just all depends on what is wrong, can he run with it, can it be fixed or only managed, etc. But as long as he has those n/w conditions, he carries a value.

There is always the slim chance that he has always hit the ground hard and he merely tired from not being fit. While that is a stretch, it could indeed be true. Again, without knowing the horse at all and not being able to spend any time around him, it's a best guess. One thing is for sure, the trainer knows how to get it done. He wins at a high rate and runs them in winning spots. What ever he comes up with, he will have given it a lot of thought. That, I know for sure. Been there, done that.

Keep an eye on the horse and let me know if and when he runs back.

Very interesting.. I'll put him in my stable give you a heads up when he runs again

[DanL32]

Thanks for your response. The horse that brought me to this was "My Kinda Party." With her pedigree, and a little speed, I thought she should have the ability be a decent BM. 4,500 seems like a bargain. Hell, she was once claimed for 150k! Was claimed for 4,500 yesterday. Am I just wrong in thinking she could produce quality offspring?

I guess paying 10-25k for a yearling is really no different then 5k for a BM when you factor in potential and taking care of them. Here is the profile of My Kinda Party:

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8867765&registry=T

A++ everywhere on trunicks!

http://www.truenicks.com/free-reports/hypothetical-mating/display?stallionReferenceNumber=1436590&mareReferenceNumber=8867765&mareName=My%20Kinda%20Party

4,500 mare and a 10k stud fee producing that!


This brings me to my next question- one which I am sure is often debated. Where, in your opinion, is the "sweet spot" for buying a filly to start one's ownership career? 20k? 50k? 100k? It seems that for return on investment purposes, the best way to go would be to get a solid bloodline with successful breeding history in her family for under 200k, right? Are there any books dedicated to this?

[str]

Thanks for your response. The horse that brought me to this was "My Kinda Party." With her pedigree, and a little speed, I thought she should have the ability be a decent BM. 4,500 seems like a bargain. Hell, she was once claimed for 150k! Was claimed for 4,500 yesterday. Am I just wrong in thinking she could produce quality offspring?

I guess paying 10-25k for a yearling is really no different then 5k for a BM when you factor in potential and taking care of them. Here is the profile of My Kinda Party:

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8867765&registry=T

A++ everywhere on trunicks!

http://www.truenicks.com/free-reports/hypothetical-mating/display?stallionReferenceNumber=1436590&mareReferenceNumber=8867765&mareName=My%20Kinda%20Party

4,500 mare and a 10k stud fee producing that!


This brings me to my next question- one which I am sure is often debated. Where, in your opinion, is the "sweet spot" for buying a filly to start one's ownership career? 20k? 50k? 100k? It seems that for return on investment purposes, the best way to go would be to get a solid bloodline with successful breeding history in her family for under 200k, right? Are there any books dedicated to this?

Q. Thanks for your response. The horse that brought me to this was "My Kinda Party." With her pedigree, and a little speed, I thought she should have the ability be a decent BM. 4,500 seems like a bargain. Hell, she was once claimed for 150k! Was claimed for 4,500 yesterday. Am I just wrong in thinking she could produce quality offspring?

A. I see an awful lot of speed in that pedigree. Any time I would see Holy Bull, Great Above and Al Hattab my 1st thoughts were always speed and bleed. Not that both could not be controlled but... it would worry me. That might be unfair but too me, that is what I saw and thought right away. I would be concerned that any baby would be a 6f. max. type horse.

Q. I guess paying 10-25k for a yearling is really no different then 5k for a BM when you factor in potential and taking care of them. Here is the profile of My Kinda Party:

A. Actually, paying 10-25K is much safer , much quicker, and less risk. Here is why.

So you pay 5,250 after tax and it is October. Off to a farm to prep to be covered in February. Figure 1,000 per month for vans, vets, blacksmiths, vitamins, sonograms, costs when she gets sick, etc. That might be a little high but come breeding season, vans, and plenty of other things crop up so lets not be surprised.
Fast forward to next October and say you were lucky enough to get her in foal. Add the stud fee. Shall we say 7,500? That is typically due on Sept. 1st. so we are at 24,750 so lets call it 25K. Add four more months and now you have a foal. 29K spent. You now have to breed the mare back. So on the van with the foal as well. You will repeat the cycle so that's another foal( assuming that she is 2 for 2 having babies and everyone is healthy. So 23K more +/-. Add one more year because the 1st baby is 2 years old but has not yet run. 23k.
So, you have roughly 75K in a mare and 3 foals, remember, they can't have a baby every year so plan on skipping at least one out of 4 years and in this scenario you are very fortunate with your luck. So lets examine the 1st baby for a minute.

When the foal is born , it costs a per day also, not as much but about 35% until it starts eating grain. After that, about 70%. Carry the foal for 18 months at that rate and now you have to pay to break the baby, (teach it to be ridden). Lets call it 17K total. Now it's off to the track with the baby at 1,500- 2,000 per month at least, for maybe 6 months. If you are lucky, the baby runs in September. You are up to 29K , been very lucky to this point and now the baby runs twice, earns 2K( doesn't have to earn anything) and bucks it's shins, thus needing about 6 months to be ready to run again. This means you have 39K in the horse and if this horse can't run well lets examine where you would be. 39K in a horse that is worth 10k tops, 2 siblings that have expenses in front of them and a 1/2 brother that is a maiden and maybe worth 10k. You have 17K in the yearling and 8 K in the weanling but you have a broodmare that you have 75K into.
If you were to try and sell the broodmare, you would not get back the stud fee in all probability. As for the now 3 year old, you can sell it for 10k because it has conditions it can win somewhere. The two year old you might get 6k for because its brother stinks and it will cost 10k to get that horse into the starting gate. The yearling you might get 2K for because of all the expenses it is looking at to get to the races.
So you can see why the breeding business collapsed 30+ years ago. Under this scenario, you have lost over 100K and it is now 4 years down the road !!

Q. This brings me to my next question- one which I am sure is often debated. Where, in your opinion, is the "sweet spot" for buying a filly to start one's ownership career? 20k? 50k? 100k? It seems that for return on investment purposes, the best way to go would be to get a solid bloodline with successful breeding history in her family for under 200k, right? Are there any books dedicated to this?

A. Would this be a filly to race and then breed or just to breed? If you are thinking about getting into the breeding business, it certainly does not have to be as bad as I just spoke about but often times, it is. I did not paint an unusual picture just now. I actually was easy going in that the mare was in foal EVERY year and everyone was healthy. That happens but it also does not happen just as often.
If you were looking at trying the breeding business, I would highly suggest visiting a breeding farm near you. Just drive up , introduce yourself and tell them of your interests. Listen and learn. Do be weary of someone that might see a cash cow coming but if you have any disposable income, there is a good chance you can see through the BS and find someone sincere that will tell you like it REALLY is, not whatever they think you want to hear.

I don't know of any books but I am sure plenty exist. You have to be careful of who wrote them though.

If I were you I would get a catalog from the Keenland Fall broodmare and horses of racing age sale that probably is in a few weeks. Just sit down and go page to page and do the math yourself from the breeding history's of the mares being sold. Those are facts and nobody can spin reality. If you do the math and can afford the game from that angle and still want to pursue it, go for it. If you prefer to race a filly, you can do that as well.
Let me know what your goal is and I will try and help if I can.

[DanL32]

Wow.. thanks a lot for the information! I figured that I had to be thinking too idealistically, but you really put everything into perspective. I will definitely pick up the Keeneland catalog; and I have been keeping up with auctions recently. After reading your post, I can now put together why some broodmares were going for a couple thousand at the Fasting-Tipton Saratoga sale last week.

I'm interested in entering the thoroughbred industry as a career, and I plan on visiting a breeder farm asap. Glad to hear that there are some farms out there who would be open to helping. As of now I am a student with an accounting background, and I follow equity/forex/commodity markets constantly, and have a large interest in the thoroughbred industry. Finding a way to tie those all together will be no small feat, but it never hurts to explore what may be out there. I'm sure it will be easier to make a decent living in accounting or finance, especially considering my background. But, I guess now is the time to explore whether a career in thoroughbreds is realistic, or if it would be better suited as my hobby. Thanks again for the informative reply.

[str]

Wow.. thanks a lot for the information! I figured that I had to be thinking too idealistically, but you really put everything into perspective. I will definitely pick up the Keeneland catalog; and I have been keeping up with auctions recently. After reading your post, I can now put together why some broodmares were going for a couple thousand at the Fasting-Tipton Saratoga sale last week.

I'm interested in entering the thoroughbred industry as a career, and I plan on visiting a breeder farm asap. Glad to hear that there are some farms out there who would be open to helping. As of now I am a student with an accounting background, and I follow equity/forex/commodity markets constantly, and have a large interest in the thoroughbred industry. Finding a way to tie those all together will be no small feat, but it never hurts to explore what may be out there. I'm sure it will be easier to make a decent living in accounting or finance, especially considering my background. But, I guess now is the time to explore whether a career in thoroughbreds is realistic, or if it would be better suited as my hobby. Thanks again for the informative reply.

What state do you live in if you don't mind me asking? Depending on where, I might be able to point you in a direction.

There are plenty of accounting based jobs available at the track. Depending on where and what track, you can make an ok salary up to a very nice salary working for management. Horseman's bookeeper, money room in pari mutuals eventually,( takes a while to get in there obviously), comptrollers office, etc. These jobs require no gambling though so they might not fit.
Trainers need accounting services, that's for sure. There is probably plenty of money in that eventually but you are young so that could work. I was always lucky with that as I am a numbers guy, but for many talented trainers, it can be and has been their downfall. Understanding basic economics is not a strong suit of most trainers. It took me years to figure out optimum totals of horses in training for instance. What I mean is if you have say 20 horses and get a chance to have 21, you actually will net less money than if you only kept 20. You need 23 to make it work. 99% of the trainers out there have no idea that this is true. They are very good at what they know but have no clue as to the economics side. As stated, I did not either early on. It took me about 6-7 years to figure this out . I was only 20 when I won my 1st race so my age had something to do with that but for most, they just never know to look at the business from that angle.
Plenty of opportunities in the game, but it can only be from a recreational gambling aspect at most, if any at all depending on what you do, so I don't know if that fits for you or not.

[harthebar]

hello str, you are on the hot seat ...like the espn show ....you are the star lol the question 2 weeks out ...the breeders crown out of all the races.....if you had to pick one horse any race,,,,which horse and race ........................................ .............................

[str]

hello str, you are on the hot seat ...like the espn show ....you are the star lol the question 2 weeks out ...the breeders crown out of all the races.....if you had to pick one horse any race,,,,which horse and race ........................................ .............................

I remember talking about the rider switch with Game On Dude earlier this year. After last years debacle in the Classic, and remember, Baffart was really steamed,he has pointed every move all year long towards having this horse as perfect as he can be. Too date, it is mission accomplished. He is taking a risk with the time gap before the Classic but he has mulled this over for the past year.

With 100% focus on this race all year long, the rider switch being such a positive, and a virtual home game for the horse, all that is left is 2 works and a decent draw. While I never pick horses until I see how the race will layout, but being on the hot seat and needing to answer, I would say Game On Dude in the Classic.
Good hearing from you Har !

[JBEX]

Hey str

That jacobson horse "el oh el" that we talked about
last week is entered to run back next Thursday at Belmont The race is
a 15000B (n2L or 3yo)..He ran for 35000B(same condition )last time
and the time in between will be 15 day's .Just making you
aware as you asked me to do

[JBEX]

Hey str

That jacobson horse "el oh el" that we talked about
last week is entered to run back next Thursday at Belmont The race is
a 15000B (n2L or 3yo)..He ran for 35000B(same condition )last time
and the time in between will be 15 day's .Just making you
aware as you asked me to do

He's scratched

[JBEX]

He's scratched

I apologize for the confusion on this. He was entered last week and
was scratched. He is entered to run this Thursday for the above conditions.
Happened to see his running line for the last race and while
I won't see the whole race till tomorrow have a hunch he'll be competitive
in this spot. The race is one mile on the dirt

[str]

I apologize for the confusion on this. He was entered last week and
was scratched. He is entered to run this Thursday for the above conditions.
Happened to see his running line for the last race and while
I won't see the whole race till tomorrow have a hunch he'll be competitive
in this spot. The race is one mile on the dirt

Thanks for the updates. I had no idea that Belmont offered a n/w2 for 15k ! That is the bottom of the barrel up there.

From a trainers view, and understanding that the horse has problems that don't seem by the trainers actions to have much chance to getting better, the gap in time is ideal. The horse gets a nice drop in class and has a race under his belt. The training for this guy in the last 2 weeks has been simple. Walk, jog and maybe gallop a little. I would be surprised if he worked but stranger things have happened. ( Don't have a form). That should not matter. The horse was all fired up going to the post last time. He should be a bit more settled this time and that will help. The race under his belt will also help. Bottom line is if he is going to run well , this race should be where he shows it. Yes, this horse has his problems but the old adage of " no hop like the drop" comes into play here.
I don't know if they are calling for rain up there tomorrow or not. If so, having the rail will probably be a good thing as the track is typically graded prior to wet weather. But... if the fronts on are to help support a suspensory or tendon problem, and the track comes up sloppy, there is a good chance he will have to scratch as those types of injuries ,call for a trainer to try and prevent a deeper than typical surface. Muddy or sloppy tracks act as deep tracks in that they have a suction effect on the legs. Much like running in sand or a loose surface, sloppy or muddy tracks can be very demanding on tendons and suspensories. That is why quite often, you see so many scratches on off tracks.
If he shows up with fronts "off" , that would be a good thing.
Thanks again for the heads up JBEX.

[JBEX]

Thanks for the updates. I had no idea that Belmont offered a n/w2 for 15k ! That is the bottom of the barrel up there.

From a trainers view, and understanding that the horse has problems that don't seem by the trainers actions to have much chance to getting better, the gap in time is ideal. The horse gets a nice drop in class and has a race under his belt. The training for this guy in the last 2 weeks has been simple. Walk, jog and maybe gallop a little. I would be surprised if he worked but stranger things have happened. ( Don't have a form). That should not matter. The horse was all fired up going to the post last time. He should be a bit more settled this time and that will help. The race under his belt will also help. Bottom line is if he is going to run well , this race should be where he shows it. Yes, this horse has his problems but the old adage of " no hop like the drop" comes into play here.
I don't know if they are calling for rain up there tomorrow or not. If so, having the rail will probably be a good thing as the track is typically graded prior to wet weather. But... if the fronts on are to help support a suspensory or tendon problem, and the track comes up sloppy, there is a good chance he will have to scratch as those types of injuries ,call for a trainer to try and prevent a deeper than typical surface. Muddy or sloppy tracks act as deep tracks in that they have a suction effect on the legs. Much like running in sand or a loose surface, sloppy or muddy tracks can be very demanding on tendons and suspensories. That is why quite often, you see so many scratches on off tracks.
If he shows up with fronts "off" , that would be a good thing.
Thanks again for the heads up JBEX.

No problem str.. weather should be good.. 3rd race and he's
part of a coupled entry.. 9/5 ml.. Will look at the race tomorrow

[JBEX]

No problem str.. weather should be good.. 3rd race and he's
part of a coupled entry.. 9/5 ml.. Will look at the race tomorrow,

As I said 1-el oh el is running as part of a coupled entry with 1a puget sound.. It's
possible they will both run as different jocks are named. Both are 3yo's making their
7th career start. Both are big pedigree horses claimed from their owner/breeder for
35K.puget sound won first off the claim in a mdn 40k at this same track and distance..
They tried him in a 3yo listed stake next out (??) and at 47-1 was last at every call. 4.5
months on the shelf and 4 of the slowest works you can run.. 2 in august and 2 this
month.. up for sale for 20k less than claiming price.. not for me..

I think what el oh el did in the 35000b last race will condition him nicely
for this.. like when horses gradually fade against better, faster
company than they're running against today.. He also won in his 2nd
career start and this is his 2nd start off a 2 month layoff. That race also
happened to be a mile at GP which of course is also one turn. While I guess
the horse is a bit of a disappointment running for 20k less 2nd off the claim
I think he's well meant here.. Think he'll go off around his ml odds of 9/5

[str]

As I said 1-el oh el is running as part of a coupled entry with 1a puget sound.. It's
possible they will both run as different jocks are named. Both are 3yo's making their
7th career start. Both are big pedigree horses claimed from their owner/breeder for
35K.puget sound won first off the claim in a mdn 40k at this same track and distance..
They tried him in a 3yo listed stake next out (??) and at 47-1 was last at every call. 4.5
months on the shelf and 4 of the slowest works you can run.. 2 in august and 2 this
month.. up for sale for 20k less than claiming price.. not for me..

I think what el oh el did in the 35000b last race will condition him nicely
for this.. like when horses gradually fade against better, faster
company than they're running against today.. He also won in his 2nd
career start and this is his 2nd start off a 2 month layoff. That race also
happened to be a mile at GP which of course is also one turn. While I guess
the horse is a bit of a disappointment running for 20k less 2nd off the claim
I think he's well meant here.. Think he'll go off around his ml odds of 9/5

I agree. As I said, this should be a nice fit for the horse as long as he is healthy enough to win, which he probably is.

Good luck.

[JBEX]

Like your opinion on this also. In the 1st race at Bel, Bill Mott has a 2yo
filly homebred by bluegrass cat (15k)..dam was 3/15 won 98k and a half
sibling won 643k.Showed speed to the half at 7f on the turf without lasix
exactly 4 weeks ago and receives it today in her 2nd start. She's running in
in a mdn 25k @ 6f today.. To be giving up on this horse so soon is obviously
a bad sign but doesn't necessarily mean that she's an automatic toss and can't
get it done today at this level.. Not really concerned about the race today but
your thoughts in general whenever you get a chance

[str]

Like your opinion on this also. In the 1st race at Bel, Bill Mott has a 2yo
filly homebred by bluegrass cat (15k)..dam was 3/15 won 98k and a half
sibling won 643k.Showed speed to the half at 7f on the turf without lasix
exactly 4 weeks ago and receives it today in her 2nd start. She's running in
in a mdn 25k @ 6f today.. To be giving up on this horse so soon is obviously
a bad sign but doesn't necessarily mean that she's an automatic toss and can't
get it done today at this level.. Not really concerned about the race today but
your thoughts in general whenever you get a chance

Several things. When a trainer runs a horse 1st time at 7/8s or longer, they , in almost all cases, are telling you that there horse does not have much speed. If they did have speed, the trainer would simply wait 2 weeks and run at 6F. This is not absolute, but 3 out of 4 times, it's true. So when this horse shows speed for a 1/2 mile in a 7/8s race, that usually means she will show less speed at 6 F.
Such was the case here. I saw she ran terribly at 4/5. So a couple of things...

She might not have shown much coming up to her 1st race but maybe the 1/2 sibling of the dam won that money on the grass?

When a horse shows very little in the morning, grass CAN wake them up, but not usually. Seems like an odd place to start the horse off, but Mott is a tremendous trainer. He might have just felt that she was only worth 30K or thereabouts. Running her for a quarter would be the right move. With all the talent he has in his barns, he does not have time for inferior horses, at least I would not think. She takes up a stall that a better horse could occupy, so lets get her winning or get her somewhere else. I would think he would be thinking along those lines.
Lasix in their 2nd start is very popular in NY among the better trainers. So I would not read anything into that.

I guess I would say that it probably was not so much giving up on her after one race as he was just saying to himself, she hasn't shown much, hasn't beaten much in the morning, turf isn't it, and she got outrun once the race started last month, so what the heck else is there except lay her in and try and win a race. I wonder if she was a little horse that is kind of ratty looking, or is goofy or something that might restrict her from being much down the road?

Not much else to say. I am kind of blind on this one but I hope it helped a little. Let me know if you have anything on your mind with her that I might not have mentioned.

[dise-pa]

sorry to get this in, breeders cup when does it start and where is it held this year since I'm totally out of it..next weekend is all I have??Friday SAT

[JBEX]

Several things. When a trainer runs a horse 1st time at 7/8s or longer, they , in almost all cases, are telling you that there horse does not have much speed. If they did have speed, the trainer would simply wait 2 weeks and run at 6F. This is not absolute, but 3 out of 4 times, it's true. So when this horse shows speed for a 1/2 mile in a 7/8s race, that usually means she will show less speed at 6 F.
Such was the case here. I saw she ran terribly at 4/5. So a couple of things...

She might not have shown much coming up to her 1st race but maybe the 1/2 sibling of the dam won that money on the grass?

When a horse shows very little in the morning, grass CAN wake them up, but not usually. Seems like an odd place to start the horse off, but Mott is a tremendous trainer. He might have just felt that she was only worth 30K or thereabouts. Running her for a quarter would be the right move. With all the talent he has in his barns, he does not have time for inferior horses, at least I would not think. She takes up a stall that a better horse could occupy, so lets get her winning or get her somewhere else. I would think he would be thinking along those lines.
Lasix in their 2nd start is very popular in NY among the better trainers. So I would not read anything into that.

I guess I would say that it probably was not so much giving up on her after one race as he was just saying to himself, she hasn't shown much, hasn't beaten much in the morning, turf isn't it, and she got outrun once the race started last month, so what the heck else is there except lay her in and try and win a race. I wonder if she was a little horse that is kind of ratty looking, or is goofy or something that might restrict her from being much down the road?

Not much else to say. I am kind of blind on this one but I hope it helped a little. Let me know if you have anything on your mind with her that I might not have mentioned.

I'm really trying to come to a decision on how to handle from a
Handicapping perspective either an expensive horse up for sale
1st or 2nd start (I'll include homebred with big pedigrees in this
category). While of course some of them will win I would guess
over the long haul these types aren't profitable. When I see them
from here on out, going to bet against them or just pass on the
race.. Thanks again for helping me to see it from a trainers perspective

[str]

sorry to get this in, breeders cup when does it start and where is it held this year since I'm totally out of it..next weekend is all I have??Friday SAT

It runs next Friday and Saturday @ Santa Anita.

You can go to DRF.com and read plenty about it.