i was mentioned to you about MSW horses , i sent you the chart ..... of the winner, now today at santa anita the horse that got third to that horse gusty ruler W. Giles is in santa anita race 7. i just like to follow the young horses coming from good races
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Comment -
Following "key " races is a must, as it is a proven angle. I am not so sure though about maiden claimers that win in their 1st start and have not yet run back. I think that might be the case here. Not sure though.
I did not think that this was a MSW race. I thought it was a 30k claimer.
Sorry for the delayed response.Comment -
OK. I went back and revisited the Gusty Ruler race. This was IMO a weak field that Gusty Ruler beat handily. So the horse that ran 3rd to him comes back in the next 30k claimer and he loses to another 1st time starter that wins by many and comes from last. Not wanting to take anything away from both FTS winners, too me, the rest of the field in both races is weak. At least that is the way it seems. Every horse with multiple starts is getting trounced by firsters that have at least some ability. Maybe they have more ability than that and time will tell but until it does and even if it does, I would have to think that any previously raced horse in either race, is weak.
Too me, those are not key races. Key races are when multiple horses come out of any particular race and several of them all win back next out. Especially horses that were off the board in that key race. THAT is a key race by my definition. I think that chasing those that have now lost twice to 2 different firsters will not work out very well. There is a good chance they are just not very good. Those types, when they do win, are usually bet way down because they have finally found a field of weaker horses than they are. That's my take on this as well as the others that lost in those two races.Comment -
hello STR i dont know if i ever showed you the kitchen , from the flood, all built with my hands, and a lot of your advice, , mike smith aint got nothing on me...lol
MOVING FORWARDComment -
Back to horses sorry for going off them, str , did you find any horse as a front runner for the derby . Over the past few weeks, nothing impressed me .. Except the filly.....and i made a 5.00 advance wager, i know sucker sucker on house rules , think thats her name for the oaksComment -
omg - I have just spent all day going through 36 pages of this thread.
Absolute GOLDEN info and I hope everyone reads everything on this thread - it will make you a better handicapper and appreciate the sport more.
Can I just say - STR - 1 word - LEGEND - the amount of info you are giving - you should be in a SBR Forum Hall of Fame - great read everyoneComment -
Oh 1 question for STR.
I have been looking at Brisnet PPS and noting "Class Dropper" and also for the horse "Switches to high % jockey" - is this a shrewd angle that trainers use to win a race - or just wait on this angle until you see 3 positives for a horse on Brisnet i.e.:-
Class Dropper
Switches to High % Jockey
Trainer is ??% on a profitable angleComment -
Hey thanks so much Singgooner. I realize that this thread is not for everybody. If all you want is a winner, this is not your thread. But if you want to know "why" various things are what they are, I can hopefully answer it for you.
The track is such a tight lipped place when it comes to the ins and outs of what is really going on, as are most sports. As a result, many have no chance to ever find out what "it really is' when it comes to a ton of things that take place in those different sports.
Having lived it, I simply offer the opportunity for anyone that might have a question they really want an honest answer to, to get one. Not some lip service or baloney that dances around a pointed question but an honest answer.
Having always enjoyed helping others, I felt it was the least I could do. And having such a high passion for the game, I really enjoy talking to people in here that also have a high passion for horse racing. I hope it has helped some players along the way.
Thanks again.Comment -
Actually, what it does is tell you that the high % jockey's agent, whose job it is to try and foresee which horses will enter into a particular race offered before it is carded, feels as though that horse is being properly spotted to win. In some cases it is say a 7% trainer that is usually 10-1 or so and usually is running a bit over a horses head, has finally decided to drop the horse down to where it can win. So, the low % trainer says to himself, if I am going to lay this horse in, let's see if I can get the leading rider. So the trainer approaches the leading riders agent and says, I am running whoever for 20k in 2 weeks . Are you available? Agent knows the horse is usually 4th or 5th for 35K and says, is the horse all right? Meaning, the horse is sound right? The trainers answer is yes, I need to win a race. The agent makes sure they are not already on a better horse and says OK. That's how it works.
So if you see a class dropper from an barely average trainer that is going to the leading rider from an average rider, in almost all cases, that horse is very live. If the trainer lies about the horses soundness, it will be one and done, and the trainer knows that, so it would be penny wise and pound foolish to lie to the agent over one mount. Over and above that, there is a certain amount of respect that goes with a dominate leading rider and you want them to want to ride for you when you lay a horse in a winning spot so in most cases, they will both be up front about things and that barely average trainer will a least know that when they decide to run em where they can win, they will get the hot jock on there horse which is a double win in that they have the hot jocks services and they do not have to try and beat that same hot jock on someone else in that race.
Hope that answers it sufficiently for you.
Please follow up if necessary.Comment -
Brilliant info - as for all the other 36 pages - people start out on a good route to success and thanks to STR points us in the right direction.
So, now I am going to look for switch to % jockey - but rides for low % trainer - at least it narrows the sample size down - many thanks.
Much respect to you for giving up so much time to usComment -
Hi, been a bit short for time as I am going through today's cards - but did go through Monday's PPS to look at what STR said and one jumped out at me.
Aqueduct Race 2 - Maiden Claimer - Prophet's Cat - Switched to a high % jock with Trainer had poor win % - but the horse had a sharp 4f workout - GUESS WHAT - won at 6/1 - win 14.00 place 6.40 show 4.40
Show now going to really keep my eye out on this angle - switch to high % jock with another angle like blinkers on/off, sharp 4f workout, drops in class with trainer profit angle.Comment -
Hey str
Have a question that I think I know the answer to but figured I'd run it by you.
What got me thinking about it was the Tampa Bay Derby. Talented 3yo or younger
who generally is a stalker may have the ability to get out to the lead but the
connections just haven't chosen to do so yet. Probably cause the races he's been
in that stalking style was more advantageous and now they find themselves in a
situation where an aggressive approach might work better so they send him or her to the lead.
Believe I've witnessed this many times over the years but would like your thoughtsComment -
HELLO STR, I SPOKE TO NANCY YESTERDAY SHE IS IN FLA. ON A VACA. GOOD FOR HER.....
ANYWAY TODAY AT GULFSTREAM 5TH RACE HORSE NAME CONSOLE MAKER JUST CLAIMED HIM FROM MOTT , WELL HE HIMSELF BOUGHT HIM FOR 25,000 WELL IVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE HORSE, I THINK HE IS A BETTER HORSE THAN A 25 ANYWAY HE BLEW THE HORSE OUT OPENED UP BY 15 WENT TO THE HALF 44.1 HUNG ON FOR THIRD, WHAT IS THE REASON FOR THAT, IS HE SETTING HIM UP FOR A FUTURE RACE, OR HE JUST THOUGHT HE COULD BOTTOM OUT THE FIELD, WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR THAT, IM SURE THE JOCKY DIDNT DECIDE TO RUN HIM LIKE THAT , HAD TO MAKER ..WITH THE INSTRUCTIONS, WHAT WOULD YOUR GUESS BE. ALSO HE HAS RAN ABOUT 10 STRAIGHT 6 F RACES , AND TODAY HE WENT 1 1/16 I GOT TO KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS
EQUIBASE CHART http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...666®istry=TComment -
Sorry for the delay.
Every trainer's wish is that a nice horse will have the ability to not be one dimensional. So, from day one, trainers try and get the horse to relax, knowing that having that asset will allow for maximum potential down the road.
Depending on the horses temperament, once they start racing, if a spot comes up where they can make the lead and the trainer feels the horse will not turn into a speed crazy , hair on fire type, than sure, why try and lay 3rd with no pace, just take the lead and walk the dog. So basically, run the same relaxed race you always do but if you find yourself in front, so be it. That is how it is typically handled. Try as you might to read the form beforehand, often times enough, it does not work out that way. Giving the jock the option is the best way to approach it.( maybe something said before the race like, hey, if you make the lead by default or catch a flyer leaving the gate, then go ahead, but don't pump on the horse and get the motor running JUST to make the early lead). As long as the jock understands that they are not gunning the horse early and understanding that relax early is the theme, many horses can adapt to this . Some however, just can't. They get all jacked up and it just doesn't work.
So I think a lot depends on the individual horse and how hard or easy it was and is to get them to settle.
Hope that helps.Comment -
When a sprinter stretches out, the horse is going to show more early speed the 1st time around 2 turns than if the horse had already been around 2 turns before. It sounds to me that the horse simply "ran off'. Or, grabbed the bit and was uncontrollable. The horse ran as fast as it could for as long as it could and any restraining by the jockey was actually detrimental .
Of course, while a jock is trying to get the horse to calm down, they don't know for sure if it's going to work or not so they have to try. But if a horse just " runs off" there is very little a rider can do but look stupid to the bettors who question why he let the horse go so fast. The rider actually did not let the horse go so fast, the horse would not cooperate with the rider.
Often times, the horse that runs off is wearing a simple style bit, one that only gives the rider so much control. My guess is next time out, the horse will be wearing a ring bit instead of a straight bit or a simple D bit. The ring bit gives the rider plenty of metal in the horses mouth to discourage running off. The other bits I mentioned have very little effect once the horse grabs it and bites down and locks there jaw.
Kind of like taking a pea shooter to a knife fight. They will be better prepared next time I would bet.Comment -
About taken off so fast, so do trainers ever use a long race 1 1/8 go as fast as you can for a prep for 6 f race
another question. Watching a movie dreamer a horse movie , a question about breeding , how come they dont take a horse who is running ... And breed between races, lol .i mean it only takes a few seconds........lolComment -
Thanks for the great answer str.Can understand if a stalker happens
to get the lead by default the jockey just trying to rate him on the
front as best he can. How about the trainer deciding to get aggressive
and try to surprise what looks like the obvious speed by sending his
horse (assuming horse is capable). If it backfires and he can't outrun
the obvious other speed he takes a hold of him and settles him into a
stalking position. Guess another way to put it would be do you think these
lightly raced stalking types have the ability to aggressively go to the lead if
asked.. assuming no equipment change either.
Gulfstream has a 1.5 mile maiden turf race scheduled tomorrow in the 7th
race. Mott and Clement (has two) have horses in the race and without going
into all the details and giving you each horses last running line do you think
they benefited from this race
Mott
4yo home bred gelding making his 8th start.By English Channel who was a multiple
G1 winner at this distance. Ran at 8.5f turf last out 17 days ago off a 51 day layoff
and his line was this in an 11 horse field.. 3(5) 3(5) 4(5) 5(5) 5(4).. lengths behind rounded
off.. I like this line to stretch out if a horse were going 6f to 9f as well as doing what he's
doing today
Clement
3yo Firestone home bred by elite sire medaglia d'oro (100k stud) who
has the highest stamina rating you can have in my sire ratings book. He's
a half to a horse who won 1.6 million and was a multiple G1 winner who
also won at this distance multiple times. Debut race at 9f turf 52 days ago
and his line was this in a 9 horse field.. 8(11) 7(15) 7(14) 8(12) 8(11).Regular
5f works at Payson Park since.. As bad as that line looks I like the eveness back
of the pack as a primer for today's assignment.. Like your thoughts on Mott's
also. Not concerned for playing purposes but just trying to learn something if I
gave you enough to work withComment -
No, they never use a 1 1/8th race for a prep for a sprint. That distance dulls the horses speed so much that it would take 2-3 races to get back to where they were.
Breeding between races would not work well for the horse for a ton of reasons. There is a whole lot more that goes into prepping a horse to be a stallion than that. It would be great if it did work like that, I mean, how easy would it be to just set up your stud to make a date with a mare , buy her a bale of hay, or a bag of sweet feed and take care of business all in one night. Lol.
It just doesn't work like that, but it does work well similarly for some jockey's. Lol.Comment -
Q. Thanks for the great answer str.Can understand if a stalker happens
to get the lead by default the jockey just trying to rate him on the
front as best he can. How about the trainer deciding to get aggressive
and try to surprise what looks like the obvious speed by sending his
horse (assuming horse is capable). If it backfires and he can't outrun
the obvious other speed he takes a hold of him and settles him into a
stalking position. Guess another way to put it would be do you think these
lightly raced stalking types have the ability to aggressively go to the lead if
asked.. assuming no equipment change either.
A. If a trainer does that, the horse in many cases would burn so much energy early that they would not have enough to sustain their run that they typically show later in the race when it was needed. It's like they all have a set amount of energy, if you use it in the wrong place, it's not there when you need it most of the time, so they try and conserve until each horses preferred time. That's what made a horse like Seattle Slew so incredible. His energy burn started leaving the gate, and ended at the finish line. Simply incredible!
Q.Gulfstream has a 1.5 mile maiden turf race scheduled tomorrow in the 7th
race. Mott and Clement (has two) have horses in the race and without going
into all the details and giving you each horses last running line do you think
they benefited from this race
A. Yes and yes. Both horses benefited greatly from their last efforts. When trainers, especially those 2 guys, who are as solid and familiar with that awkward distance as anyone, put there horses in that distance a race, it was not something they just decided to do. They both had that type of race in mind months ago. The foundation that a trainer has to have under a horse going 1 1/2 miles off one race 7 weeks ago or off one career start,, is totally different from the amount of foundation a trainer would ordinarily put under a horse that was going to run up to 1 1/8th. It is night and day. So there is no doubt that both of these guys had a mile and a half in there minds all through February and probably more like December.
The Mott horse looks as though he will be forwardly placed early. The last race was a race under his belt for today's distance.
The Clement horse debuting at a mile and an 1/8th says that this horse has no speed whatsoever and needs this type distance.
Because he did not get that much experience out of his only race, this guy might be a little behind the learning curve compared to the Mott horse. Not definitely, but probably. You can bet that all those 5/8th works were the last 5/8ths of a 7/8s or mile or mile and an 1/8th efforts that had the horse going 15 second 1/8 mile splits early, and therefore too slow to record until he hit the 5/8ths pole.
Let me know how they do.Last edited by str; 03-19-14, 06:30 AM.Comment -
Will do and thanks for the prompt answer. Interesting that they might have
jogged him slow for 2-4f prior to timing the 5f works at Payson..Also that both
trainers may have had this in mind possibly months in advance. With their
pedigrees seems to make sense.. should be interestingComment -
Clement absolutely did. A few 5/8ths work with no earlier quickened gallop going into it would never have a horse fit enough to race a mile and a half . It's called a 2 minute lick, meaning each 1/8th is roughly 15 seconds( within a fifth of a second) . Times 8 1/8s would be 2 minutes. So you break off at the mile pole or at least the 7/8s pole and you go 15, 15, 15 and then quicken up to go 13s and hopefully finish up with a 12 or two. That type of workout happens every day. That is one reason I tell people to put very little into workout times. It's a good thing that they are working regularly, but it's how they did a time, in 1/8th mile increments, not how fast they did the time. Standing alone with a full time and no details is just not enough information to have a true understanding of what actually went on.Comment -
What do you personally think of the PETA video on Asmussen and his guys working for him, as a former trainer?Comment -
I watched the 9 minute version of this on DRF.
Where do I start.
First of all, while these people in PETA have plenty of passion for what they do, like most over the top organizations, they are filled with people that are so bent on what they feel, they can't see the forest for the trees.
I could spend an hour or two on that video and go point by point but I won't. If anyone has a particular question about something they saw or heard, I will explain what was going on.
PETA took hours of video and chopped it up to promote there agenda. There are IMO a couple of things in there that are worthy of a track investigation. No question about it. But the vast amount of all that was garbage. Not my opinion, but fact.
One thing that caught my ear was they put in a quick conversation about how "no pulse was felt in one foot, and barely felt in the other foot". That would seem to most people that the horse is near death and is doing terribly wouldn't it? Well, when you feel a horses legs and feel for a pulse in the two veins running down behind the ankle of each front leg, you do NOT want to feel any pulse. Someone at PETA should have consulted someone that actually knows before putting that in there video. What that did IMO was to cheapen the entire video.
When you feel for a pulse, of course they have one, but it is so subtle going to the feet that you really do not detect it from just putting your fingers on the veins. When a pulse is active, it means that the blood is trying to get to the foot, meaning, that the body is trying to supply more blood than normal to the area to fight off infection. So having NO PULSE is telling you that the foot is doing much better than it was when a heavier pulse was detected. I hope that makes sense because that is the truth.
So when I hear that, too me, the video loses a ton of credibility.
Lasix is a performance enhancer? Of course it is, so is aspirin. I think I spoke to that 2 years ago in here.
Freeze firing legs? It's been accepted by the entire veterinary medicine colony for probably 100 years. And while the horse is uncomfortable for roughly 48 hours afterwards, the daily discomfort from chronic sore shins or splints is far worse.
So, the vast majority of this video is simply propaganda .
However, there are some things that if proven to be true, should be acted upon immediately.
The stuff about the electrical devise needs to be looked at. If found to be true, that jock and asst. trainer should be held accountable IMO.
The illegal immigrant stuff should absolutely be looked into.
The minimum wage stuff, is hard to comment on because I do not know how they pay people and for what. In my day, you were paid by the job, not by the hour. If done properly, and in due time, it was a 40 hour week for grooms and less for hot walkers. You could make extra money doing other jobs on off hours. So, it's hard to comment on that without knowing what is going on.
As for the change your name stuff, it looks like that guy has a lot of explaining to do. Never happened on my watch. Not even close.
The asst. trainer seems to talk a big game around his employees. Some of that stuff sounded like I was watching King of the hill or Hee Haw. Again, none of my asst. trainers ever spoke like that and if they had of, they would have been looking for a new job.
I guess it's good that this stuff comes out in that it helps clean things up .
It is a shame though, that shock TV, slanted coverage and instant outrage is the way people choose to do it.
I guess there are three sides to every story though.
Peta's , the horseman, and the truth.Comment -
Great answer str, very thorough and great to hear your take. The illegal immigrant and changing name stuff seems to be the one thing everyone agrees is bad.Comment -
Hey Str, do you have any posts covering how horses are trained? Like, how they taught technique or kept athletic? Are they being worked everyday or like a normal athlete, they have off-days? I've gone this deep without actually knowing how a horse is trained.Comment -
Thanks for the help offered:
I have a questions in regards this bet a recently placed:
It was $6 on the WIN PLACE on the horse the ended up coming second.
The payout table showed 6.40 for place.
I ended up receiving $3 payout.
Is this correct?Comment -
Hey str
Was looking at the 3rd race at GP tomorrow and noticed Castellano on a horse (first time)
with bad recent form for an average local trainer. His races 4 or 5 back would easily
beat these. He's breaking from the rail at 8.5f on the turf. Noticed his last 3 breaking
from the rail he has 2 wins and a 3rd by a length. When he draws outside posts he just
seems to run evenly back of the pack and do nothing (all turf routes). Should mention he
did have troubled trips his 2nd and 3rd starts back. Could Castellano have taken the mount
after he found out the horse drew the rail? It's a 16k claimer so he certainly doesn't have to
go out of his way to ride in a race like thisComment -
I am sure that I have posted the basics in here before but in short, yes they are trained just about every day. A typical week of a horse training up to a race will be work a 1/2 mile, walk only the next day, then gallop 4 or 5 days and work again , about every 6 days or so. A lot of people work on Saturdays so the barn can only have to send a few to the track on Sunday, and therefore give some of the help the day off. Weather obviously can change that if the track will be closed for snow, etc.
After a race, a horse will walk only 2 or 3 days depending on each horse, then maybe jog the wrong way a day and then gallop 5 or 6 days about a mile and a half each day. If they won't run back quickly, they might start maintenance works after about 2 weeks. It really depends on each horse though, as you rarely train them all the same. Each individual might need more or less, or gate work, or whatever. A lot of variables goes into it but that is the simple overview.
Wander through if you have time as I am pretty sure I went over this.
Hope that helps.Comment -
Sounds like you bet online so remember, you get reimbursed for your wager plus any profit.
So if you bet 3 to win and 3 to place the payout would have been nothing for the win and 6.40 plus 3.20 for the place. So after getting your investment of 6.00 back, you would have won 3.60 cents.
All payoffs for win, place or show are based on a 2.00 bet. So did you have 3 to win and 3 to place or 6 to win and 6 to place. If you risked 6 total dollars, above is correct. If you risked 12 total dollars, you should have received zero for the win bet and three times 6.40 for the place bet.Comment -
I am pretty sure but not positive that riders must be named at the time of entry. Each track has their own set of entry rules. It was not like that years ago. You could enter NB or no boy and name a rider at scratch time, which gave you a chance to see who was available. Just don't know about Gulfstream but many tracks have gone to trying to get the riders named asap for the public as well as the printer.
I looked at Fridays entries at Gulfstream and all riders have been named and no duplicate riders in any race except for a main track only horse, who will scratch unless they are off the turf. That leads me to believe that Gulfstream makes you name the rider at the time of entry. But not positive.
You are right, he could sit this one out with no problem but my guess is that maybe Castellano was in the race, and maybe had a hand, in getting the horse in a switch before, or saw it happen , did not have a mount for the race and it all worked out. Then, he draws the fence and that catches your eye.
Sounds like a very promising entry if it can take the right shape if the horse gets a trip, which will probably happen with that jock.
It's these types of scenarios that I was referring too when I talked about following a certain circuit as well as the top rider jumping on at exactly the right time.
Great catch . I hope it works out. It sure sounds promising so far. You know he would not waste his time unless he had a positive opinion at that claiming price. If nothing else, the jock goes in optimistic and expecting a solid effort. Nothing worse than a jock that doesn't want to be on the horse and ho humming it when they are riding the entire card. Certainly worth a long look IMO.Comment -
Thanks for the help.
I'm still not able to see how the payout was only $3. Let me share more details of the race/horse pick so you can better assist.
The horse that came second have odds of 4.20 according to equibase (3.2/1 if I'm not mistaken).
I risked a total of $6 on the WIN PLACE on the horse that came second.
A couple of questions:
if the horse odds were 4.20, doesn't this mean I get 9.6 when I risk $3 (3.2 multiplied by 3).
Secondly, the place payout ended up been 6.40, but If i'm not mistaken this is based on a $2. So in my case who's risking $3, it should be 6.40 ($2) + 3.20 (the remaining $1). OK I get that.
But I don't quite understand the part that you say "So after getting your investment of 6.00 back, you would have won 3.60 cents." Shouldn't the investment at this point be of $3 on the place, because the other $3 of the original $6 risk amount were to the WIN and therefore lost?
Thanks for all the help. I'm new to this but really loving it.Comment -
You bet a total of 6.00 .
3 to win and 3 to place.
The win bet lost.
The place bet paid 6.40 ( no odds are ever posted on place because the pool is split after the takeout with the other horse that placed, in this case, the winner. Without knowing who is going to be part of the split, there is no way of knowing what the exact odds will be beforehand.
So you got back 6.40 and 3.20 for a total of 9.60
If you take out of that your original risk amount of 6.00, it will leave you with a profit on the race of 3.60.
If the horse that you bet was 4.20-1 , if that horse had won, it would have paid 10.40 to win. 4.20 X 2 and the 2.00 you bet , so 8.40 +2.00 = 10.40.
It seems confusing but you will get the hang of it.
Hope that helps.Comment
