Horse Racing questions and answers

[BOA12]

B12: That would be Laurel Park. It would be my pleasure if that occurred.

Ball is my court,

might drag J and the Chief of AC

2 split the gas 3ways - first leg of a possible

odyssey of 3.

It would be my pleasure to make that occur.

Tazmania out-law line;


30-1

[str]

Ball is my court,

might drag J and the Chief of AC

2 split the gas 3ways - first leg of a possible

odyssey of 3.

It would be my pleasure to make that occur.

Tazmania out-law line;


30-1

How about we split it 4 ways.

[BOA12]

How about we split it 4 ways.

MIA bound- GP or bust 4US.

4-horse lover brothers

on a quest like no others.

[BOA12]

Chief all in, road trip/poker game.

Can't justify one w/out the other.

[JBEX]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

[JBEX]

I'd want at least 5-1 on white abarrio and think he will be higher than the 7-2 ml

[str]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

[BOA12]

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

I never mind being 2nd best against the best.

What % of the purse for place if you know ?

[batt33]

Catching up on the threads! I've been dealing with the parents... Dad and I are good... He needs either 2 stents or open heart surgery... his choice... anyway taking a look at the Oaklawn race!

Just saw the Flight line colt when for 10.5 million at the OBS sale! Wholly smokes! Hopefully not another "green Monkey "for the buyers!

As far as my horses "closest to racing
Caldera ..My Kenttucky derby hopeful from last year... he has been training super well... looking for an allowance race... entered but races haven't been filling.

Caldera stretched his legs this morning at Palm Meadows through 3/8 in :36.95. He’s pretty much sitting on go at this point, so doesn’t need to do much as we wait for a race. The same race we were looking at as an extra is back in the new condition book for Apr. 30, so that will be the target for now.

Bacio ..The turf speed freak... is pointed to a race derby week at keenland
Bacio worked the bullet five furlongs yesterday(10days ago)at Keeneland in :59.80 and exited the move in good order. Trainer Wesley Ward has his sights set on an allowance race on Apr. 28 at Churchill Downs (Derby week) to start off your colt’s sophomore campaign. The hope is to use that race as a potential springboard to a trip to Royal Ascot if Bacio runs well and seems up to the task.

Nakoma Update



Nakoma has been entered again today in a new extra at Gulfstream going 5 1/2 furlongs on the Tapeta. If it goes today it’ll be for Apr. 24, but with it being an extra it could take longer than one day to fill. Note that our racing team will be traveling back from Ocala right around when tonight’s overnight is released, but we’ll be sure to provide more info as soon as we can if/when the race goes.

still have a few others getting back or winding up

Black Tie Optional Check In



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning at Los Alamitos. He’s looking good and likely two to three weeks or so away from returning to the work tab.

Your colt’s sire Not This Time was represented today by G1 Dubai World Cup hero Magnitude.

[JBEX]

I never mind being 2nd best against the best.

What % of the purse for place if you know ?

usually 20% and don't think it'd be any different here.. about a half million dollar difference winning vs 2nd

[BOA12]

usually 20% and don't think it'd be any different here.. about a half million dollar difference winning vs 2nd

Thanks J

buys a lot of hay.

I'm playing White Aborrio to " steal one " 2day.

[JBEX]

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

if that scenario materializes and SOV does not press WA (as you said) he could be on an easy lead with comfortable fractions
.. maybe the ml maker sees that and feels some of the bigger money flowing in will also .. I thought it was optimistic to make him 7-2 in here off what he's done recently.. possibly the idea might be if he goes off around that it's a good sign that he's supported well and ditch the 5-1 odds minimum..I think I I have changed my mind and if WA is ml or below he would be my play

obviously we can't forget journalism but have to think his connections will probably view this race the same way as SOV's and he would also be compromised by a slow pace

i agree that the connections of WA can go into this with an underdog mentality.. everything to gain and if they run 3rd or worse that's what was supposed to happen

have a good time at laurel str and appreciate your input on the race

[JBEX]

Thanks J

buys a lot of hay.

I'm playing White Aborrio to " steal one " 2day.

no problem boa .. I like the low ml combined with str's view of how the race might unfold ..but as mentioned I do want to see WA played at ML or below .. might consider 4-1 but 9-2 too much and would scare me away .. hopefully we're both on the winner

[JBEX]

I think sovereignty and journalism just found themselves on the front end in a small field where there was really not a consistent front running type.. white abarrio is not a speed horse but looked most likely of the 3 of them to be able to get the lead if he wanted it .. I don't know if being on lead and pressing the pace respectively confused SOV and JOU or WA is just that good .. probably a combination of both and a great race and win for the latter

[str]

What a dream come true for White Abarrio. He warmed up with the full intention of settling on the front end early. So much so that while the other horses were lining up and walking to the gate, WA was still jogging in figure 8's back and forth to the gate and back to the other horses. That got the other riders attention late in the post parade and it got into their head that W.A. would be gunning for the lead. They assumed they would need to break and go just enough so as to not allow a 25-50 first couple of fractions. So, the gate opens, both former 3 yr. olds pay strict attention to W.A. and decide they would try and put a little pressure on him so that 25-50 fraction split scenario does not happen. Then, Irad, seeing the other riders using their horses just enough to lean on W.A., pulls the plug and takes back. Whoops !!

Within the next 5 strides, the setup was so perfect for W.A. to stalk 3rd with a totally clean right eye, and simply wait to pounce as they turned for home. Both Sov. and Journalism found themselves in the classic fish out of water scenario. Both riders had to be sick going down the backside. Only one thing was left to happen. W.A. simply had to respond when Irad asked him. That's it. Nothing else.
And, he did. Both Sov. and Journalism were left out of lung capacity and totally out of their element the last 1/8th of a mile.
A not so surprising " Welcome to 4 years old and upward guys".

I have to think both trainers were sick going into the 1st turn. I know I would have been. The 7 yr., old with a race under his belt who has won a BC Classic and 7+ Million gets the catbird seat against two just turned 4 yr. olds that have not run in months after a hard fought 3yr. old campaigns.

For those that played W.A., it really doesn't get much more fun than that. Wow !