Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

guess no matter how good the trainer is you just don't know till they run .. have to think with his pedigree they are considering what his resume will look like at the end of his career for stud fee
purposes and as you know that money dwarfs purses..I have an above avg amount of confidence that he's ok to go and if he works out a good trip he's going to win..will there be any value..no and that's why I like the idea of going for the exacta with him on top

[str]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

[JBEX]

Without even seeing the form yet, I would be way more surprised if all three ran off the board than if all three won.

If anyone is just looking for action, play these three and you can rest assured that you will get a hard trying run for your money on all of them.
I don't think there is another sire I would say that about more confidently than I do Army Mules.

what do you think is a tougher thing to do first time str .. a dirt sprinter trying a turf sprint or a dirt router trying a turf route..both are in good current form running on dirt .. I think the sprint is tougher because there's less to no room for error

this would apply to brooklyn drew (AM CD1) as it's a first try turf sprint .. going to discount the slow start debutas experience (actually be her 2nd with that) and possibly came back too quick last start for the poor performance (good current form) .. the latter is certainly a guess as to the reason

[str]

I agree. The sprint would be more difficult.
The horse is asked to run at top speed from the gate on unfamiliar terrain.
With all the relax in route turf races, it has to be easier to adapt to any footing worries the horse might have.

if he has a turf work like a 1/2 mile, that would be a big relief for the horse.

[JBEX]

might negate some of the lack of experience if she's able to get the lead ..doesn't look impossible to do in that field

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



monmouth 7 @ 3:56
#1 bel pensiero (3-1)

monmouth 8 @ 4:28
#1 ceepeegee (9-2)

churchill 1 @ 6pm
#7 brooklyn drew (4-1)




.

just moving forward

[JBEX]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

while journalism factoring trouble was obviously the best horse,nice call with gosger str ..had he won the exacta with the win bet would've been a really nice hit

[Easy-Rider 66]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just curious on what is your take on Prat's ride on the 1- Goal Oriented? Didn't get a chance to watch it live today, just saw the replay. According to commentator Bailey, "Prat crowded Rispoli". What did you see? Make no mistake, I never like Prat so that's my personal bias. Thanks.