Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

I'm surprised smartier ml wasn't a little lower .. had excuse after the start and really bred to go long

man was I wrong..64-1 @ 17 mtp

something seriously wrong with him

He looked a little confused early on but with horses rushing up in quick time, I would be as well. Was still ok until he hit the turn, switched to his left lead correctly but threw his head up in what looked like a funny step or something. Whatever the case, that was it as he was pulling up and the rider could feel the horse doing so. Never switched back to the right so whatever it was had all of the horses attention.

We shall see but hate to see that happen. Hope he is ok.

[JBEX]

He looked a little confused early on but with horses rushing up in quick time, I would be as well. Was still ok until he hit the turn, switched to his left lead correctly but threw his head up in what looked like a funny step or something. Whatever the case, that was it as he was pulling up and the rider could feel the horse doing so. Never switched back to the right so whatever it was had all of the horses attention.

We shall see but hate to see that happen. Hope he is ok.

yes I did notice his head go up before he started to retreat and that he didn't change leads in the stretch..looking at the chart he did finish the race which I guess has to be a good sign although i imagine something still could be wrong with him ..thanks str

[str]

I posted a question about if there will be a speed bias at Delmar today. More often than not there is. I hope it is fair but we will just have to watch to see.

[str]

yes I did notice his head go up before he started to retreat and that he didn't change leads in the stretch..looking at the chart he did finish the race which I guess has to be a good sign although i imagine something still could be wrong with him ..thanks str

Yes. Everything changed in an instant. Hope he is ok.

[JBEX]

if you can believe this there's a debut horse in the race following caldera's(R5) and his name is sinatra (R6)..amazing

also an army mule in R6

#2 saving heart (6-1)

think we might have known about him in his debut..big trouble right out of the gate

R5 #6 caldera (8-1) @ 3:14
R6 #3 sinatra (6-1)



.

[JBEX]

and mention "chancer mcpatrick" in the juvenile @ 7:45..#10 @ 3-1

[str]

and mention "chancer mcpatrick" in the juvenile @ 7:45..#10 @ 3-1

A speed bias would really mess with him.

[JBEX]

A speed bias would really mess with him.

yes..even if it's also/or a rail bias don't want to be breaking from out there

[batt33]

Memories !

Thanks Batt.

[batt33]

if you can believe this there's a debut horse in the race following caldera's(R5) and his name is sinatra (R6)..amazing

also an army mule in R6

#2 saving heart (6-1)

think we might have known about him in his debut..big trouble right out of the gate

R5 #6 caldera (8-1) @ 3:14
R6 #3 sinatra (6-1)



.

Haha just saw this myself! beat me to the post!

[str]

yes..even if it's also/or a rail bias don't want to be breaking from out there

While I totally get racing in November in Calif. because of the weather, To have a bias that is constantly in play is unfair for a championship setting.

Since Delmar replaced it's racing surface 10 years ago there have been a total of twelve 1mile and 1quarter races run. In those races, 8 have been won by the front runner. 3 have been just off the pace and 1 has been a closer.

That puts the horse I thought I might pick in a world of trouble. I guess I will look at the race from that point of view and see where I land.

[batt33]

if you can believe this there's a debut horse in the race following caldera's(R5) and his name is sinatra (R6)..amazing

also an army mule in R6

#2 saving heart (6-1)

think we might have known about him in his debut..big trouble right out of the gate

R5 #6 caldera (8-1) @ 3:14
R6 #3 sinatra (6-1)



.

Aaand 2 more" liam maps" in the 7th lol both broke their maidens first out.... both didn't do well in their last start but training well! and decent odds!
8 Liam in the dust 10/1
9 lady orient 15/1

[batt33]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Race Recap
[/COLOR]
Caldera checked in sixth today on debut after an eventful and educational trip. Click for the chart and replay (available later this evening).
Last away, he showed good speed and determination to move up in between horses. He grabbed a rail spot not far off the pace heading into the turn, but had to tap on the brakes in traffic and lost a bit of momentum. Jockey Ramon Vazquez was able to guide him off the inside to find running room approaching the stretch, and he responded willingly to put himself back in contention. He looked like he might level off and start picking them off at the top of the lane, but he ran out of gas in the late stages while continuing to try to the wire.
While we all of course were dreaming of that blowout debut victory, we knew going in that Lukas trainees typically need at least one race before showing their best and that’s exactly how Caldera ran. He made multiple runs, showed some gears and handled the kickback and traffic trouble bravely. Caldera ran like a horse with some ability—which we still believe he has—who just wasn’t cut out to win going six furlongs on debut. He’ll gain a ton of fitness from that effort and plenty of mental maturity as well.
Both trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Vazquez were encouraged by the effort and had similar takes—they felt that was a great first experience, and believe Caldera will be better once he stretches out in distance.
A win today would’ve been great, but a six-furlong maiden special weight was not the goal or main objective when we acquired him. The Coach still seems to believe strongly that Caldera’s future is bright, and nothing Caldera did today would have us doubting the Hall of Famer’s assessment.
He seemed to come back in fine order immediately after the race. We’ll let him bounce out of this one and pick out a longer spot for next time.
We hope everyone enjoyed the excitement of today’s unveiling and remains optimistic about Caldera moving forward.

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Race Recap
[/COLOR]
Caldera checked in sixth today on debut after an eventful and educational trip. Click for the chart and replay (available later this evening).
Last away, he showed good speed and determination to move up in between horses. He grabbed a rail spot not far off the pace heading into the turn, but had to tap on the brakes in traffic and lost a bit of momentum. Jockey Ramon Vazquez was able to guide him off the inside to find running room approaching the stretch, and he responded willingly to put himself back in contention. He looked like he might level off and start picking them off at the top of the lane, but he ran out of gas in the late stages while continuing to try to the wire.
While we all of course were dreaming of that blowout debut victory, we knew going in that Lukas trainees typically need at least one race before showing their best and that’s exactly how Caldera ran. He made multiple runs, showed some gears and handled the kickback and traffic trouble bravely. Caldera ran like a horse with some ability—which we still believe he has—who just wasn’t cut out to win going six furlongs on debut. He’ll gain a ton of fitness from that effort and plenty of mental maturity as well.
Both trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Vazquez were encouraged by the effort and had similar takes—they felt that was a great first experience, and believe Caldera will be better once he stretches out in distance.
A win today would’ve been great, but a six-furlong maiden special weight was not the goal or main objective when we acquired him. The Coach still seems to believe strongly that Caldera’s future is bright, and nothing Caldera did today would have us doubting the Hall of Famer’s assessment.
He seemed to come back in fine order immediately after the race. We’ll let him bounce out of this one and pick out a longer spot for next time.
We hope everyone enjoyed the excitement of today’s unveiling and remains optimistic about Caldera moving forward.

So I read the post race write up and I know how hard it is/was to have that talk after a firster that people were getting excited about runs seemingly flat. I guess on paper it will look like that but I had no problem with that race.
Do remember, he was not trained to win this race. It might have looked like it with the workout times but he was not IMO. I saw a horse learning a ton of stuff. I saw at least two efforts to kick on with crap flying in his face and all the action around him including crowd and announcer noise. Caldera was tired. He got a ton out of that race. He will be so much better in his next start. That said, he still has much to learn. And he will. I am fine with his overall effort and what his body language was telling us.
Because he works quickly in the AM, excitement builds early. Some horses work fast and some not so fast. One of the best horses I had used to have would breeze 3/8ths in about 40 in the AM. And would run about 5-6 seconds faster for that same 3/8ths in the afternoon.

Just give him a little time to figure all this out. He will.

[str]

Breeders Cup Friday:

IMO, the track seemed to play very fair. That was a pleasant surprise. I hope it stays that way.

When the pace was too hot, the speed came back. When it was slow early, they kept going which is exactly what is supposed to happen. Horses ran good or bad from all parts of the track. Well Done Delmar.

Now let's talk about Chancer McPatrick. Am I disappointed? Yes. But not because he could not overcome having to rally into a very slow early pace. And not from any trip. I am disappointed because this is starting to look like Sierra Leone 2.0 and I don't get it.

I know, let's criticize a guy with a great record. And you guys have known me long enough to know I am not about that. But why is it that every horse gets taken waaay back . Do any of these horses want to stalk? Or be on the lead? Or mid pack. Must they all drop back 15 lengths and be at the mercy of pace AND trip? You can do all that stuff when you are just much better but when you run in G-1's they are all much better. Simply put, I don't get it. And I said this after his last race when he won if you recall.

I guess I was taught differently. My mentor had speedballs, stalk, close, deep close, you name it. So naturally , that is what I tried my best to do. He took what he was given and made it do little things so as to be the best it could be.

You folks all know how hard I preach R E L A X. I seem to say it almost everyday. Relaxed breathing. Relaxed effort. Relaxed mentally. Wait for riders instruction. Plenty left to finish up. It is how you win races. But do all of them need to be Silky Sullivan? Jeez!

He trained Lite The Fuse. A one dimensional speed ball that refused to switch off his left lead after the far turn and therefore was always tired through the stretch . When it became obvious the horse was going to refuse to switch, he did his best to work with what he had. No offense to Chad I hope, who is a brilliant horseman and a HOFer but would he have had Lite The Fuse close? I know, that's an exaggeration. But my frustration with what I saw coming a month ago is spilling over right now. So I will stop typing. Too early for a drink. Guess I will just try and look at the card and try and find a winner today. More later.

[str]

My two cents on a few of these races today.

BC F and M sprint: 4th race

Looks like a program selection type of race.

I see 4,6,9,10



In the BC Classic: 8th race

I will take a swing with a Japanese horse.

Ushba Tsoro at 12-1 works for me.




BC Mile: 12th race

I'll take a swing against Saudi Crown, etc. with;

#3 Full Serrano 15-1

Special shout out to Batt who co owns Siege The Grey.

If he can repeat that Derby day race he could be right there as well.

GL Batt !





BC Sprint race 10 :

Loaded with speed .

Another shout out to Batt who co owns # 8 Straight No Chaser.

GL my friend.



I go bombs away with a last stride up closer:

#2 Gun Pilot 20-1

[str]

B C Distaff Race 6:

Will hope Torpedo Anna finishes off a great season but if you folks end up playing her to win maybe more than you should, back it up with a straight exacta with the 9 on top only.

So a 9-2 straight saver. No way to know how great this one could be. She is obviously special.

[JBEX]

Breeders Cup Friday:

IMO, the track seemed to play very fair. That was a pleasant surprise. I hope it stays that way.

When the pace was too hot, the speed came back. When it was slow early, they kept going which is exactly what is supposed to happen. Horses ran good or bad from all parts of the track. Well Done Delmar.

Now let's talk about Chancer McPatrick. Am I disappointed? Yes. But not because he could not overcome having to rally into a very slow early pace. And not from any trip. I am disappointed because this is starting to look like Sierra Leone 2.0 and I don't get it.

I know, let's criticize a guy with a great record. And you guys have known me long enough to know I am not about that. But why is it that every horse gets taken waaay back . Do any of these horses want to stalk? Or be on the lead? Or mid pack. Must they all drop back 15 lengths and be at the mercy of pace AND trip? You can do all that stuff when you are just much better but when you run in G-1's they are all much better. Simply put, I don't get it. And I said this after his last race when he won if you recall.

I guess I was taught differently. My mentor had speedballs, stalk, close, deep close, you name it. So naturally , that is what I tried my best to do. He took what he was given and made it do little things so as to be the best it could be.

You folks all know how hard I preach R E L A X. I seem to say it almost everyday. Relaxed breathing. Relaxed effort. Relaxed mentally. Wait for riders instruction. Plenty left to finish up. It is how you win races. But do all of them need to be Silky Sullivan? Jeez!

He trained Lite The Fuse. A one dimensional speed ball that refused to switch off his left lead after the far turn and therefore was always tired through the stretch . When it became obvious the horse was going to refuse to switch, he did his best to work with what he had. No offense to Chad I hope, who is a brilliant horseman and a HOFer but would he have had Lite The Fuse close? I know, that's an exaggeration. But my frustration with what I saw coming a month ago is spilling over right now. So I will stop typing. Too early for a drink. Guess I will just try and look at the card and try and find a winner today. More later.

obviously very disappointed by that showing also str

could it be that when prompted early he refuses to be aggressive ? other thought that came to mind is he's only a 2yo and was undefeated vs the best in ny running that way..maybe he didn't want to mess with him so early for 1 race albeit it was a bc race..probably get a few months
off till gulfstream and they'll have more time to address it in that time period ..you obviously know these things better than me but good opportunity to learn by making some guesses

[JBEX]

cd R3 a liam's map ..#4 austin's map (8-1)
@ 2:08..went with another

[str]

cd R3 a liam's map ..#4 austin's map (8-1)
@ 2:08..went with another

Not the toughest maiden 50K I've seen.

[batt33]

Thanks STR for your insights regarding Caldera and your thoughts on the races! aww Silky Sulliven I got a chuckle on that comment!

[JBEX]

Not the toughest maiden 50K I've seen.

owner and breeder are the same..dam very productive so another sign LM is a live sire ..don't know about this one with the late start but excuse first out,adds blinkers and spotted realistically ..still have a hunch this is one a bust

[batt33]

Thanks STR for your insights regarding Caldera and your thoughts on the races! aww Silky Sulliven I got a chuckle on that comment!

Talk about silky sulliven.... wow race 4..... soul of an angel....

[str]

Congratulations Batt !!!!
Straight No Chaser.
He rated ,took a breather and fired hard late.

That is fantastic !!!

[batt33]

Congratulations Batt !!!!
Straight No Chaser.
He rated ,took a breather and fired hard late.

That is fantastic !!!

Talk about a natural high! .... the 8 post ..... broke on top..... in my mind game set and match.... well that was what I was thinking.... and alike I said in another post.... the team took time to take him over ... get saddled and get use to the surroundings.... as he had a tendency to get agitated while getting saddled..... cudos to the team for taking the extra time with him....

[batt33]

federal judge and straight no chaser...!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6piPIZ20YJ0

[batt33]

I felt pretty confident with STC.... not so much with STG..... but overall thankfull that ALL the horses came home safe...... batt
well fudge ...spoke too early..... dang it...

[str]

Having spoken about this a lot over the years, for those new here that have not read this through ( which I highly encourage you to do so, and just skip over the talk stuff), Straight No Chaser ran the race of his life yesterday. So very happy for Batt as well as the connections. But, for handicappers , the reason that was possible was what we refer to as " the box".
Simply put, when 2 or more speeds get hooked up together, the inside and middle speeds have a much more difficult task. The outside speed has a clear right eye. That horse is not pinned between horses vying head and head and unlike the rail horse, not having to work to maintain position going into the turn when all three horses will shift over about 4 feet when they switch to the left legs as the lead legs. The outside horse can control the amount of pressure put on the inside horses and the inside jocks will have to go harder or take back before the turn starts and the legs switch.

The box is a perfect setup for a speed horse if they can control the flow even if it is just by a head or so. There is no relax or short breathers for an inside speed horse with outside pressure and their right eye covered up. I encourage anyone that is interested in what I am explaining to use the search box function at the top of the thread page and type in "the box" as a key search word or "right eye". This will shed a whole new light on handicapping races if you were not aware. And of course, feel free to follow up with any questions once you have read it. Understanding this will shed a whole new light on what is happening in a race from a jockeys as well as horses perspective. And, it will keep you off losing plays and put you on winning plays.
You will be glad you did.

And again, congratulations Batt. An incredible performance by the horse, rider, and trainer and his team.

[JBEX]

congratulations on the win batt





.

[JBEX]

Having spoken about this a lot over the years, for those new here that have not read this through ( which I highly encourage you to do so, and just skip over the talk stuff), Straight No Chaser ran the race of his life yesterday. So very happy for Batt as well as the connections. But, for handicappers , the reason that was possible was what we refer to as " the box".
Simply put, when 2 or more speeds get hooked up together, the inside and middle speeds have a much more difficult task. The outside speed has a clear right eye. That horse is not pinned between horses vying head and head and unlike the rail horse, not having to work to maintain position going into the turn when all three horses will shift over about 4 feet when they switch to the left legs as the lead legs. The outside horse can control the amount of pressure put on the inside horses and the inside jocks will have to go harder or take back before the turn starts and the legs switch.

The box is a perfect setup for a speed horse if they can control the flow even if it is just by a head or so. There is no relax or short breathers for an inside speed horse with outside pressure and their right eye covered up. I encourage anyone that is interested in what I am explaining to use the search box function at the top of the thread page and type in "the box" as a key search word or "right eye". This will shed a whole new light on handicapping races if you were not aware. And of course, feel free to follow up with any questions once you have read it. Understanding this will shed a whole new light on what is happening in a race from a jockeys as well as horses perspective. And, it will keep you off losing plays and put you on winning plays.
You will be glad you did.

And again, congratulations Batt. An incredible performance by the horse, rider, and trainer and his team.

do you think if not all (probably) that at least some who are strict speed can make that adjustment if given a more outside post ?



.

[str]

Talk about a natural high! .... the 8 post ..... broke on top..... in my mind game set and match.... well that was what I was thinking.... and alike I said in another post.... the team took time to take him over ... get saddled and get use to the surroundings.... as he had a tendency to get agitated while getting saddled..... cudos to the team for taking the extra time with him....

Like most sports that are really competitive, most everyone does the big things, the easy things, but it's the little things, and difficult, time consuming, unnoticed things, that can make all the difference.

Looks like it did.

Ah, the sweet smell of success for a job well done that spared no extra time or work. Great job by that trainer.

[str]

do you think if not all (probably) that at least some who are strict speed can make that adjustment if given a more outside post ?


.

Absolutely JBEX. They can breathe just a little easier, think just a little less, and feel just a little more comfortable.

Compare it to driving on an interstate. You are on the inside of two tracker trailers or dump trucks and a turn on the inside is coming. Don't you feel yourself tapping the brakes just a bit more? Or pinned in between two big rigs in your car on a three lane interstate and they are both 1/2 a car length in front of you. You typically ( at least I do), maybe tap the brakes and pull out of that situation or gun it and clear them both. As soon as you are out of being pinned, driving is immediately no big deal. And you breathe a sigh of relief. That means you were holding your breath and didn't know it.

Now imagine if you were three across the interstate and you were in the far left lane, a left hand turn was coming up and your lane was ending. Rut Row, Scooby Doo. You either speed way up or back out of there. Either way, as soon as that claustrophobia is over, you breath a sigh of relief. Again, holding your breath without realizing it.

Horses do the same exact thing. And that catches up to you at the 1/8th pole if you are a horse.


You can use this as a handicapping tool to better understand WHY a horse quit, or kept running, depending on the last scenario AND you can predict how the race flow will help or hurt that same horse or other speeds this time.
What an EDGE! And it is right there in the pp's but many race fans, who you are betting against, do not know to look for that.
Hope that makes sense everyone.

[batt33]

congratulations on the win batt





.

Thanks JBEX!

[batt33]

Having spoken about this a lot over the years, for those new here that have not read this through ( which I highly encourage you to do so, and just skip over the talk stuff), Straight No Chaser ran the race of his life yesterday. So very happy for Batt as well as the connections. But, for handicappers , the reason that was possible was what we refer to as " the box".
Simply put, when 2 or more speeds get hooked up together, the inside and middle speeds have a much more difficult task. The outside speed has a clear right eye. That horse is not pinned between horses vying head and head and unlike the rail horse, not having to work to maintain position going into the turn when all three horses will shift over about 4 feet when they switch to the left legs as the lead legs. The outside horse can control the amount of pressure put on the inside horses and the inside jocks will have to go harder or take back before the turn starts and the legs switch.

The box is a perfect setup for a speed horse if they can control the flow even if it is just by a head or so. There is no relax or short breathers for an inside speed horse with outside pressure and their right eye covered up. I encourage anyone that is interested in what I am explaining to use the search box function at the top of the thread page and type in "the box" as a key search word or "right eye". This will shed a whole new light on handicapping races if you were not aware. And of course, feel free to follow up with any questions once you have read it. Understanding this will shed a whole new light on what is happening in a race from a jockeys as well as horses perspective. And, it will keep you off losing plays and put you on winning plays.
You will be glad you did.

And again, congratulations Batt. An incredible performance by the horse, rider, and trainer and his team.

Thanks STR!

[batt33]

Thanks STR!

like I said earlier when he broke out on top and the 2 speed horses to his outside couldn't keep up..... well yeah I was stoked!