Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

Lengthy interview with Dutrow about White Abarrio just now on FS2.

Thank you Madison!!

I'm recording it so I won't miss it while I type away .

Over/Under on making me Lol is 3 1/2. Probably going to take the over.

Appreciate it sir.

[str]

be pulling for white abarrio today str..love to see rick notch this win

Ditto. I’m going to try to watch!

If Rick keeps this horse together all year, the public will get to know him. And he is a beauty .Lol.

Funny, raw, and will tell you the truth.

It's like no other trainer you have seen interviewed. Everyone is measured . Not Ricky. He's just being himself.

[Easy-Rider 66]

GL to Rick today STR.

[str]

GL to Rick today STR.

Thanks EZ !

[str]

Rick got emotional twice during that interview.

About his mom, which I love to see, and about the horse himself.

Passion will always bring out your best . He just showed it.

[str]

Meanwhile... what did I just see?

Forever Young never switches leads and nails the leader at the wire.

An incredible performance.

[Da Manster!]

If I ever decide to bet on the ponies STR I will be more than happy to blindly tail you! (no pun intended!)...


Remember those old commercials from the 70's?! "HI HO, PIMLICO!"...

[Madison]

Meanwhile... what did I just see?

Forever Young never switches leads and nails the leader at the wire.

An incredible performance.

I posted , or tried to, the same. Wouldn't mind a derby future on him. Really nice run!

[Madison]

In my humble opinion, I love these special international days. For a neophyte like me the breakout segment regarding the transport of The Foxes was really interesting. Not sure it's that way for the less valuable but "down to a science", amazing.

[str]

Well I've drank the Kool aid for Ryan Moore.

Oh my !!!

He is an incredibly gifted rider.

Man that's fun to watch.

[mrginandtonic]

He is even money now…. Best of the connections!!

[mrginandtonic]

Well I've drank the Kool aid for Ryan Moore.

Oh my !!!

He is an incredibly gifted rider.

Man that's fun to watch.

Yeah, I’m surprised that when they said he was for 0 for 18….

[Easy-Rider 66]

He is even money now…. Best of the connections!!

6/5 five minutes out
White Abarrio

[jamesrav]

"My guess would be that the 2% of winners are either limited or asked to leave over time. "

they are only limited in the sense that once you hit a certain profit level (I think its like $250,000) you have to pay a premium fee. I'm sure those people/groups continue on since its still profitable for them. Their motto is "We like winners", so its very different than the typical sports book philosophy.

[str]

6/5 five minutes out
White Abarrio

Don’t know if you were able to see it and I have not seen a replay but.. when they showed that shot about half way around the turn , WA did not respond at all. Irad stirred him up and there was nothing.
It was subtle but certainly all he would have needed to start a move forward.
Race was over for him there. Damn shame but that’s the game.
We will see what shows up in the morning. Hopefully it’s not a problem and just a not his best day thing.
Sorry folks. That’s a tough one.

I sure do appreciate all the positive support .

[Easy-Rider 66]

Don’t know if you were able to see it and I have not seen a replay but.. when they showed that shot about half way around the turn , WA did not respond at all. Irad stirred him up and there was nothing.
It was subtle but certainly all he would have needed to start a move forward.
Race was over for him there. Damn shame but that’s the game.
We will see what shows up in the morning. Hopefully it’s not a problem and just a not his best day thing.
Sorry folks. That’s a tough one.

I sure do appreciate all the positive support .

OK STR THX for your take. I watched the race on RTN. He ran flat I guess. Hope he comes out of the race in good order and continues to run in the states. Keep us updated. THX

[str]

"My guess would be that the 2% of winners are either limited or asked to leave over time. "

they are only limited in the sense that once you hit a certain profit level (I think its like $250,000) you have to pay a premium fee. I'm sure those people/groups continue on since its still profitable for them. Their motto is "We like winners", so its very different than the typical sports book philosophy.

That sound about right IMO.

So if you are a big winner they will keep you but charge a tax, pushing up your needed win % .

There motto should be We Like (taxing) Winners.

What a business!

[str]

Hey STR: have you watched any races from Laurel Park recently? They have a new information deal where they have a live prediction on who will win the race. With changing percentages. Interesting feature.

I watched a race or two over the weekend but did not see any fixed odds stuff.

Is there a certain place I should be looking, like the Laurel website?

Thanks EZ.

[str]

If I ever decide to bet on the ponies STR I will be more than happy to blindly tail you! (no pun intended!)...
Remember those old commercials from the 70's?! "HI HO, PIMLICO!"...

Da Man ! Somehow I missed this post until last night.

I really appreciate the kind words and you being a Bowie guy from back in the day.

God I loved that track.

And OMG, that friggin song Hi Ho Pimlico. It truly drove me crazy.

I heard that damn song 3 times a day from the middle of March until the end of May for two years at least.

They used to play it at 12:30 before the 1st race, 3:00, just after the 5th, and just before the last race EVERY DAY !!!

It would start really quietly and build up. I can STILL hear that damn song in my head. Lol.

Pimlico was very good to me over the years. A lot of history there and that's where I got to get up close to Secretariat and met his groom Eddie Sweat, who by the way is getting ready to be enshrined posthumously along with another groom whos name escapes me into a subset of the horse racing HALL OF FAME. Don't know the exact name of that branch but I heard it's coming later this year or thereabouts. With no place to honor grooms and backstretch workers in horse racing, this is way overdue. Without them, nobody wins a race.

Also, thank you, along with everyone else that did so, for the nomination of this thread. It's been a long run and I've enjoyed every minute of it. I hope it goes for 13 more years. I always enjoyed talking with people that went to the track. I was one of those before I started full time there.

I hope you get a chance to skim through the years and find some posts that hit home with Bowie or other Md. racing chat. If you do, please ask away as you see fit.
All the best my friend. Glad to see you in here. Oh, and, nice pun.

str (which if you look closely at the blinkers of the horse in my avatar, were on most of my blinkers way back when). The entire staff of the racing secretary's office called me that. Lol. I've been called worse.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I watched a race or two over the weekend but did not see any fixed odds stuff.

Is there a certain place I should be looking, like the Laurel website?

Thanks EZ.

yeah I watch races on RTN. on the LRL feed they have a constantly updating percentage prediction on who will win the race. Nothing to do with fixed odds. Maybe see if you can watch a replay off the site. go to race videos and they have the replays online there. hit me back once you see it. THX STR.

[jamesrav]

yeah I watch races on RTN. on the LRL feed they have a constantly updating percentage prediction on who will win the race. Nothing to do with fixed odds. Maybe see if you can watch a replay off the site. go to race videos and they have the replays online there. hit me back once you see it. THX STR.

it is an interesting feature, but basically mimics the closing odds once they are known (ie even odds horse has a 50% chance if its anywhere near the front, and that opinion lasts for much of the race). But it does start to have a 'real' opinion late in the race, which leads to the question of what they are basing it on? Could they just be displaying the Betfair in-play payout in real time? (ie 2.5 = 40% chance) Otherwise, it has to be their own calculation. Which leads to a fanciful question: is technology at the stage where a sensor on a horse could give a completely accurate position, from which you could calculate velocity using a few readings? I used to be in the barcode biz, and you could scan something via RFID from 200' and it would instantly be available on a computer - and that was 30 years ago. You'd think a track would have to disclose such an ability. Velocity ... distance remaining - easy as pie to determine who will win.

There was a race yesterday, the favorite (roughly even odds) was being offered at 4.8 and was leading by several lengths with about 1.5 furlongs left - I was sure it was a bot or human error since there was only like 15 seconds left in the race. But it was easily overtaken by a 12/1 horse that was well behind. In re-watching the race, you could kind of tell the 12/1 was motoring and going to catch up and probably overtake ; but 'in the moment' it sure looked like the heavy favorite with a 3 length lead would cruise to victory and was easy money at 4.8. 'Probably' just some talented observers who could see something unfolding 3 seconds in advance

[Easy-Rider 66]

it is an interesting feature, but basically mimics the closing odds once they are known (ie even odds horse has a 50% chance if its anywhere near the front, and that opinion lasts for much of the race). But it does start to have a 'real' opinion late in the race, which leads to the question of what they are basing it on? Could they just be displaying the Betfair in-play payout in real time? (ie 2.5 = 40% chance) Otherwise, it has to be their own calculation. Which leads to a fanciful question: is technology at the stage where a sensor on a horse could give a completely accurate position, from which you could calculate velocity using a few readings? I used to be in the barcode biz, and you could scan something via RFID from 200' and it would instantly be available on a computer - and that was 30 years ago. You'd think a track would have to disclose such an ability. Velocity ... distance remaining - easy as pie to determine who will win.

There was a race yesterday, the favorite (roughly even odds) was being offered at 4.8 and was leading by several lengths with about 1.5 furlongs left - I was sure it was a bot or human error since there was only like 15 seconds left in the race. But it was easily overtaken by a 12/1 horse that was well behind. In re-watching the race, you could kind of tell the 12/1 was motoring and going to catch up and probably overtake ; but 'in the moment' it sure looked like the heavy favorite with a 3 length lead would cruise to victory and was easy money at 4.8. 'Probably' just some talented observers who could see something unfolding 3 seconds in advance

OK James thx for your take. interesting.

[str]

In my humble opinion, I love these special international days. For a neophyte like me the breakout segment regarding the transport of The Foxes was really interesting. Not sure it's that way for the less valuable but "down to a science", amazing.

I missed that segment. Was it about shipping horses and other animals into Saudi Arabia and the preparation behind it?

[Madison]

I missed that segment. Was it about shipping horses and other animals into Saudi Arabia and the preparation behind it?

Yes, was great, from taping their ankles etc to feed and on. The transport stall/pen was all automated to ensure the enclosure was as comfortable as possible. The transport was for "The Foxes" and I think 11 others from Britain to Saudi.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just read that WA came out of the race in good order. Didn't really give an explanation for the subpar performance. In your opinion, do you think that the one turn 1 1/8 mile is not suitable for him?? I am thinking he is more of a two turn kind of horse; one turn to me is more a long sprint. That race to me was set up perfectly for a closer. Just my opinion; would like to hear what you think? thank you in advance.

[JBEX]

Sir STR, just read that WA came out of the race in good order. Didn't really give an explanation for the subpar performance. In your opinion, do you think that the one turn 1 1/8 mile is not suitable for him?? I am thinking he is more of a two turn kind of horse; one turn to me is more a long sprint. That race to me was set up perfectly for a closer. Just my opinion; would like to hear what you think? thank you in advance.

he answered that question before the race mrgnt

https://youtu.be/S_Fi8VCl224?si=WGunkoDfghVMwy4K

[str]

Sir STR, just read that WA came out of the race in good order. Didn't really give an explanation for the subpar performance. In your opinion, do you think that the one turn 1 1/8 mile is not suitable for him?? I am thinking he is more of a two turn kind of horse; one turn to me is more a long sprint. That race to me was set up perfectly for a closer. Just my opinion; would like to hear what you think? thank you in advance.

he answered that question before the race mrgnt


https://youtu.be/S_Fi8VCl224?si=WGunkoDfghVMwy4K

Rick explains it pretty well.

So if it turns out that the pace is too hot, the track is playing to closers, or whatever the case might have been, and your horse is trying to stalk that pace sitting 3,4,5,6 but tightly bunched AND you are down on the fence with 13 horses to your right, moving forward when necessary is really your only option. If Irad felt the pace was too quick, he still didn't have many options because of the 1 post. If he takes back, where does it end? Probably when you are about 12th or so. That's not going to work for WA, so you end up just having to go with the flow.

If what you saw made you feel like the horse would have seemed more comfortable back some more in that one turn race, I can understand that but that 1 post dictated what Irad did. I mean, it's not like he used him hard to be where he was, but it was sit , but constantly be on alert to move. There was not a ton of relax in there but again, that's the devil in then 1 post out of a chute. They are all coming over on you.

I'm not at all making excuses as the horse was pretty quiet from the 3 and 1/2 pole to the wire. It just wasn't there. It usually is, at least since Rick took over.

So what we know is he was not the same that day. Now what? Well, if there was anything that helped lead to that flat effort, Rick will find it. And it could have been anything. A thousand different things, or, a few small things. No matter, if it can be found, Ricky will find it, rest assured.

We will never know for sure if 2 turns would have made a difference. I would bet not, but who knows?

I think you will see a different horse next out, whenever and wherever that is. Rick is not going to run him without having cleaned up whatever took place last week.
We will see how it goes.

That's my take Mr. GandT.
As always, nice to hear from you.

[JBEX]

don't think senor buscador had a horse to his right the whole race (or very little on the backstretch) while WA did for most of the race .. of course the 1 post in a big field had everything to do with that ..just have a hunch allowed to settle ,clean right eye (as you've explained many times) for more of the race and going around 2 turns @ 10f (dubai world cup) he could turn the tables and run a big race..also a return in 5 weeks off the lengthy layoff and a chance to settle from the long trip.. this is assuming of course that he exited this race in good order

maybe at belmont in an 8 horse field @ 9f the rail is not as bad a place to be but imo in a large field,at that class level, it's a different story

[JBEX]

KINGSBARNS

gulfstream saturday

R6 @ 7f

allowance

n2xot/n3L/ nw race 9 months/ clm 62.5






.

[mrginandtonic]

Rick explains it pretty well.

So if it turns out that the pace is too hot, the track is playing to closers, or whatever the case might have been, and your horse is trying to stalk that pace sitting 3,4,5,6 but tightly bunched AND you are down on the fence with 13 horses to your right, moving forward when necessary is really your only option. If Irad felt the pace was too quick, he still didn't have many options because of the 1 post. If he takes back, where does it end? Probably when you are about 12th or so. That's not going to work for WA, so you end up just having to go with the flow.

If what you saw made you feel like the horse would have seemed more comfortable back some more in that one turn race, I can understand that but that 1 post dictated what Irad did. I mean, it's not like he used him hard to be where he was, but it was sit , but constantly be on alert to move. There was not a ton of relax in there but again, that's the devil in then 1 post out of a chute. They are all coming over on you.

I'm not at all making excuses as the horse was pretty quiet from the 3 and 1/2 pole to the wire. It just wasn't there. It usually is, at least since Rick took over.

So what we know is he was not the same that day. Now what? Well, if there was anything that helped lead to that flat effort, Rick will find it. And it could have been anything. A thousand different things, or, a few small things. No matter, if it can be found, Ricky will find it, rest assured.

We will never know for sure if 2 turns would have made a difference. I would bet not, but who knows?

I think you will see a different horse next out, whenever and wherever that is. Rick is not going to run him without having cleaned up whatever took place last week.
We will see how it goes.

That's my take Mr. GandT.
As always, nice to hear from you.

Thank you very much for your take. Always appreciated it.

[str]

Yes, was great, from taping their ankles etc to feed and on. The transport stall/pen was all automated to ensure the enclosure was as comfortable as possible. The transport was for "The Foxes" and I think 11 others from Britain to Saudi.

So much goes into any sports event that when you get an behind the scenes look at it, it's amazing. Same goes for lots of other things I'm sure. I just happen to know about horse racing.

Without seeing the clip, I'm sure people are amazed at the attention to the detail that goes into this stuff. Nowadays probably even more so than when I was doing it.
Take it back 45 years and I know I have this in here somewhere but Bud Delp was prepping Spectacular Bid to go to California to race and he wanted to not shock the horse with the difference in time change so he starting feeding Bid 1-2 minute earlier every day for a good month plus. That was forward thinking back then. Today, it's probably 10 times that . Bud was VERY good. Of course, Dickie Dutrow was better and it wasn't close. Kind of shows that the HOF is for those that did great work AND had a Spectacular horse, pun intended. King T. is an exception to that and deservedly so.

Glad you enjoyed that Madison.
All the best.

[str]

KINGSBARNS

gulfstream saturday

R6 @ 7f

allowance

n2xot/n3L/ nw race 9 months/ clm 62.5






.

A two other than is the PERFECT spot to start him and hopefully get him back to who he was before the Derby. Especially mentally. I might be wrong but that is where I think all this starts and ends. Of course I've said this "ad nauseum" at this point.
7/8ths is really smart IMO as well.
All you can ask for is a fair shake and Kingsbarns has gotten exactly that.

This looks like it will give him every chance to blossom if he can. Sure hope so.

Can't wait to see him on the track.

Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

A two other than is the PERFECT spot to start him and hopefully get him back to who he was before the Derby. Especially mentally. I might be wrong but that is where I think all this starts and ends. Of course I've said this "ad nauseum" at this point.
7/8ths is really smart IMO as well.
All you can ask for is a fair shake and Kingsbarns has gotten exactly that.

This looks like it will give him every chance to blossom if he can. Sure hope so.

Can't wait to see him on the track.

Thanks JBEX !

no problem str and remember you did not too long ago..only reason I thought it might be the grade 3 @ 1/16 was this type of race wasn't available but the "time frame for last win" part does it .. agree 100% this is a perfect spot ..look forward to it also


if you missed it in pigpen's pool 4 thread "deterministic" is running in the gotham and have another future in "locked" going in the fountain of youth .. lots to root for on saturday and of the 3 only deterministic interests me from a betting standpoint

[str]

no problem str and remember you did not too long ago..only reason I thought it might be the grade 3 @ 1/16 was this type of race wasn't available but the "time frame for last win" part does it .. agree 100% this is a perfect spot ..look forward to it also


if you missed it in pigpen's pool 4 thread "deterministic" is running in the gotham and have another future in "locked" going in the fountain of youth .. lots to root for on saturday and of the 3 only deterministic interests me from a betting standpoint

I did see Pigpens thread and Deterministic. Thanks.
A few weeks ago, I think, I wrote about running a high claimer in one of these and learning all about " since" dates and the monsters sitting on the bench getting ready to run. How would you like to be the guy in the next stall over at the gate running for 62,500? Might win, but oh my!
Been there done that. It's a rumbling in your stomach that isn't real bad, but comes back every time you think about the race. Not a mistake I made twice. Once was enough.

[JBEX]

I did see Pigpens thread and Deterministic. Thanks.
A few weeks ago, I think, I wrote about running a high claimer in one of these and learning all about " since" dates and the monsters sitting on the bench getting ready to run. How would you like to be the guy in the next stall over at the gate running for 62,500? Might win, but oh my!
Been there done that. It's a rumbling in your stomach that isn't real bad, but comes back every time you think about the race. Not a mistake I made twice. Once was enough.

yes you did and can see how "since" in the condition usually will make it a much tougher race..probably just as much for the ones getting in under allowance conditions as the ones running for a high tag..used to think in the old days that straight $50-75k claimers in ny were just as good or better than your avg alw n2x ot field ..more like n3x ot or listed stakes type horses


think he needs to run the style of race he did in his debut .. his ability to relax ,as you've mentioned before,will be put to the test with some of the others going in here