Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

2nd 5+ lengths behind the winner who wired the field..no apparent excuses from what I saw but if you want to take a look at some point like to hear your opinion

Command performance simply ran out of air, or fitness. He did everything right and looked far superior down the backside.

He went from in hand and in control at the 1/2 mile pole, the red and white pole, to empty at about the 3/8ths pole. That's the Green and white pole around the far turn.

He looked sound, switched leads and just fine.
Simply not fit enough IMO.

Lets follow him for his next start JBEX.

[JBEX]

Command performance simply ran out of air, or fitness. He did everything right and looked far superior down the backside.

He went from in hand and in control at the 1/2 mile pole, the red and white pole, to empty at about the 3/8ths pole. That's the Green and white pole around the far turn.

He looked sound, switched leads and just fine.
Simply not fit enough IMO.

Lets follow him for his next start JBEX.

it's interesting,and you did mention it,that they would bring him back short even with the huge class drop of running against maidens..why not just have him ready as if he were running against stakes horses..wouldn't it be better ,if he was capable, to have a big win in that race rather than doing it with more of a struggle ?? (and of course he didn't win)

[JBEX]

it's interesting,and you did mention it,that they would bring him back short even with the huge class drop of running against maidens..why not just have him ready as if he were running against stakes horses..wouldn't it be better ,if he was capable, to have a big win in that race rather than doing it with more of a struggle ?? (and of course he didn't win)

I guess I can see not having him fully cranked but seems he went too much to the other end of the spectrum

[str]

it's interesting,and you did mention it,that they would bring him back short even with the huge class drop of running against maidens..why not just have him ready as if he were running against stakes horses..wouldn't it be better ,if he was capable, to have a big win in that race rather than doing it with more of a struggle ?? (and of course he didn't win)

Yes. It would have been perfect. But it seems to me that he was trying to get two races in the horse before the Derby. So, IMO, he is letting the calendar train the horse not logic.

Hopefully the Derby will go away now and he can allow the horse to be all it can be. But if the owners are adamant, and I assume they were which is what caused all this Derby fever stuff from the get go, he might run back at gulfstream in a MSW and then run in the Derby.

We will see but no way Todd runs that horse at Tampa yesterday without it being him fighting the calendar to the 1st Saturday in May. There is no logical reason to run him off that low amount of works without it being that.

[str]

One other note from Tampa yesterday. The rail was producing some high odds solid performances just about all day. I have to think, without following that track at all, that the rail was certainly a place that was favorable.

I do not think Command P. got beat because of that rail but being wide did not help anything from the looks of the charts.
Some of those lesser horses in claimers that ran an unexpected poor race while wide yesterday should bounce back nicely at an inflated price next out . All things being equal of course.

Tracking the next race for some of those against the bias horses that were expected to run well but did not will probably show an overall profit.

GL

[JBEX]

Yes. It would have been perfect. But it seems to me that he was trying to get two races in the horse before the Derby. So, IMO, he is letting the calendar train the horse not logic.

Hopefully the Derby will go away now and he can allow the horse to be all it can be. But if the owners are adamant, and I assume they were which is what caused all this Derby fever stuff from the get go, he might run back at gulfstream in a MSW and then run in the Derby.

We will see but no way Todd runs that horse at Tampa yesterday without it being him fighting the calendar to the 1st Saturday in May. There is no logical reason to run him off that low amount of works without it being that.

with the owner being mike repoli (biggest client) who is ny based and the pedigree on this horse suggests he would like the belmont stakes..sire won it and out of a tapit mare(tapit line does very well in the belmont stakes)..little uncertain about trying the derby (assuming a good msw win at gulfstream)but I won't question you thinking that was the idea behind running at tampa..I'm going to guess the peter pan path ppp lol to the belmont stakes ..maybe try to get him in a 7f or mile msw at aqueduct as a prep if there is one.. be interesting to see where he goes


thanks str

[JBEX]

with the owner being mike repoli (biggest client) who is ny based and the pedigree on this horse suggests he would like the belmont stakes..sire won it and out of a tapit mare(tapit line does very well in the belmont stakes)..little uncertain about trying the derby (assuming a good msw win at gulfstream)but I won't question you thinking that was the idea behind running at tampa..I'm going to guess the peter pan path ppp lol to the belmont stakes ..maybe try to get him in a 7f or mile msw at aqueduct as a prep if there is one.. be interesting to see where he goes


thanks str

of course without saying this is predicated upon a solid effort breaking his maiden

[str]

with the owner being mike repoli (biggest client) who is ny based and the pedigree on this horse suggests he would like the belmont stakes..sire won it and out of a tapit mare(tapit line does very well in the belmont stakes)..little uncertain about trying the derby (assuming a good msw win at gulfstream)but I won't question you thinking that was the idea behind running at tampa..I'm going to guess the peter pan path ppp lol to the belmont stakes ..maybe try to get him in a 7f or mile msw at aqueduct as a prep if there is one.. be interesting to see where he goes


thanks str

I just have no idea what other reason would have Todd run that horse at Tampa instead of Gulfstream in 3 or 4 weeks with those many more works when the horse is coming off a 4th in the BC Juvenile unless it was Derby driven or Preakness and Belmont driven.
Can't wait to see what he does next and would love to hear him explain the logic.
Should be interesting.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

I just have no idea what other reason would have Todd run that horse at Tampa instead of Gulfstream in 3 or 4 weeks with those many more works when the horse is coming off a 4th in the BC Juvenile unless it was Derby driven or Preakness and Belmont driven.
Can't wait to see what he does next and would love to hear him explain the logic.
Should be interesting.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str..I'll do a search every once in a while to see if todd comments publicly on him..found nothing up to now but I guess it might be a little soon
sure I'll spot him checking the maiden races regularly

quite a few msw at aqu in april (made sure for the boys..made that mistake once before lol)

2nd .. 1 mile
16th .. 7f
21st .. 1 1/8 th

5/14 peter pan 1 1/8 th
6/11 belmont


understand a lot of speculation here but what the heck.. fun to take a crack at it

[JBEX]

hey str

aqu R1 #12 we ready (8-1) 1:20

part of this play is #4 bold victory (7-5) making the big drop after a nice race at the spa 1st off the claim..then put on the bench about 8 months..i would think that can't be good I

mine

like his fast track dirt form..understand it's a mile today but can't have everything

4th off a long layoff..

trainer has good #'s first start with him and also stretching out

see him up close this race and that's an edge in routes here (not many 9f races run)..outside posts good but admittedly 12 is not ideal

even for maiden claimers this is a bad bunch imo


if you like another go right ahead lol




.

[str]

hey str

aqu R1 #12 we ready (8-1) 1:20

part of this play is #4 bold victory (7-5) making the big drop after a nice race at the spa 1st off the claim..then put on the bench about 8 months..i would think that can't be good I

mine

like his fast track dirt form..understand it's a mile today but can't have everything

4th off a long layoff..

trainer has good #'s first start with him and also stretching out

see him up close this race and that's an edge in routes here (not many 9f races run)..outside posts good but admittedly 12 is not ideal

even for maiden claimers this is a bad bunch imo


if you like another go right ahead lol




.

Sorry I'm late to the party on this one. Was at work this morning.

So in this case of such a long run down the backside, the 12 post with a position type speed like this horse, is not terrible. Yes the horse will run a wide race. But that might not be the worst thing that could happen. I saw the chart and he was 3 wide around the turn but was in a good spot if he was best. He did not run badly at all finishing 4th. Not great, but he had his chances turning for home. Pretty weak bunch as you said.

The big drop down horse is scary. This is the 2nd time he has been laid in. Gotta have a problem that most likely won't hold forever. Those are indeed good horses to not chase, and, bet against. Totally agree with your assessment on that one even though it was scratched.

Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

Sorry I'm late to the party on this one. Was at work this morning.

So in this case of such a long run down the backside, the 12 post with a position type speed like this horse, is not terrible. Yes the horse will run a wide race. But that might not be the worst thing that could happen. I saw the chart and he was 3 wide around the turn but was in a good spot if he was best. He did not run badly at all finishing 4th. Not great, but he had his chances turning for home. Pretty weak bunch as you said.

The big drop down horse is scary. This is the 2nd time he has been laid in. Gotta have a problem that most likely won't hold forever. Those are indeed good horses to not chase, and, bet against. Totally agree with your assessment on that one even though it was scratched.

Thanks JBEX !

no problem str

wanted your opinion on the trip of #8 magny cours
in last years dubai world cup..tomorrow is the 2022 edition and he is running again..they give you an angle view head on early/mid part of the backstretch and a straight head on through the latter part .. my impression was he ran in tight quarters for much of it and was shut off trying to making his initial move going into the turn..was really moving to the wire but not even close to the winner


blue silks , white cap so it's easy to spot with the head on view

breaks from the 12 post

https://youtu.be/eyoWVQnnjYU

.

[str]

no problem str

wanted your opinion on the trip of #8 magny cours
in last years dubai world cup..tomorrow is the 2022 edition and he is running again..they give you an angle view head on early/mid part of the backstretch and a straight head on through the latter part .. my impression was he ran in tight quarters for much of it and was shut off trying to making his initial move going into the turn..was really moving to the wire but not even close to the winner


blue silks , white cap so it's easy to spot with the head on view

breaks from the 12 post

https://youtu.be/eyoWVQnnjYU

.

I do not see the shut off going into the far turn. He did sit still the latter part of the backside and into the far turn due to traffic but his momentum was not impeded. He just sat a bit longer than he might have wanted to. All in all, with all those horses and that post, I think he got a ok trip.
He did have to decide going into the 1st turn to take back a bit instead of lose ground but again, with that field size, you have to be very fortunate if you are a mid pack type, to get a great trip. The outside horse caused him to take back about 2 lengths early.
A push button horse with a high motor can make it's own trip but those horses are rare.

He ran very well late. His leads were pretty good except he broke on his left lead instead of his right. I'm being picky there but we look for and hope to get perfect trips and that was an unforced error. Nothing you could do about it. It might explain why his right lead which he used from the 1/4 pole home, was doing a nice job with that late run. It was a little fresher than ordinarily.

Nice to see the rider continue riding from 5th at the 1/8th pole. We have all seen them shut it down and this rider didn't. I guess a 12 M purse makes you ride hard for any piece. Lol.

Question: Doesn't this track heavily favor speed? I don't follow it but it just seemed to me from limited reruns that the leaders don't seem to be caught much. Is that correct?

[JBEX]

I do not see the shut off going into the far turn. He did sit still the ladder part of the backside and into the far turn due to traffic but his momentum was not impeded. He just sat a bit longer than he might have wanted to. All in all, with all those horses and that post, I think he got a ok trip.
He did have to decide going into the 1st turn to take back a bit instead of lose ground but again, with that field size, you have to be very fortunate if you are a mid pack type, to get a great trip. The outside horse caused him to take back about 2 lengths early.
A push button horse with a high motor can make it's own trip but those horses are rare.

He ran very well late. His leads were pretty good except he broke on his left lead instead of his right. I'm being picky there but we look for and hope to get perfect trips and that was an unforced error. Nothing you could do about it. It might explain why his right lead which he used from the 1/4 pole home, was doing a nice job with that late run. It was a little fresher than ordinarily.

Nice to see the rider continue riding from 5th at the 1/8th pole. We have all seen them shut it down and this rider didn't. I guess a 12 M purse makes you ride hard for any piece. Lol.

Question: Doesn't this track heavily favor speed? I don't follow it but it just seemed to me from limited reruns that the leaders don't seem to be caught much. Is that correct?

I'm not surprised you didn't think it was a bad trip but just wanted to make sure.."still the ladder" is a new one for me lol but guess you mean something like running comfortably behind the leaders waiting for a possible opening ? being between all those horses in the backstretch wasn't a hinderance..another thing is with that angle you are guessing a bit as to whether there are horses right off his flank..main thing though is you didn't feel it was a bad trip


I believe there is a speed edge to this track but honestly haven't watched the earlier races


thanks str

[str]

I'm not surprised you didn't think it was a bad trip but just wanted to make sure.."still the ladder" is a new one for me lol but guess you mean something like running comfortably behind the leaders waiting for a possible opening ? being between all those horses in the backstretch wasn't a hinderance..another thing is with that angle you are guessing a bit as to whether there are horses right off his flank..main thing though is you didn't feel it was a bad trip


I believe there is a speed edge to this track but honestly haven't watched the earlier races


thanks str

Lol. I meant latter not ladder.
I corrected it.
What an idiot. Haha.

[JBEX]

Lol. I meant latter not ladder.
I corrected it.
What an idiot. Haha.

no I'm the idiot..should have gotten that one..blade is getting very dull

[JBEX]

hey str

parx

R5 #7 champion by design (12-1)

wanted to see what you think of this one..

to me..

solid first couple of races at pid
including winning his debut..might bode well that he runs well fresh


bled from the nostrils last race and prior race stopped fairly abruptly after the half mike mark
..maybe some bleeding issues there also ?? gets lasix today


solid works since returning although there was one 3 week break along the way

frankie named to ride and ness having a great meet..former probably wouldn't be aboard if there were issues ..trainer excellent first time routing

think #5 is formidable although last race was only a 3 horse field

#3 ml favorite closed a ton at laurel last race to finish 2nd..winner came back to repeat ..if I had to find a hole in that it would be pace was extremely fast by figures..lrl so maybe you can shed some light on that..does seem pretty fast w/o knowing the figures..also going 1 turn to 2 today..

could see an honest pace here which hopefully he's not a part of lol



factoring the price think he's kind of interesting..guessing odds significantly lower




.

[JBEX]

hey str

parx

R5 #7 champion by design (12-1)

wanted to see what you think of this one..

to me..

solid first couple of races at pid
including winning his debut..might bode well that he runs well fresh


bled from the nostrils last race and prior race stopped fairly abruptly after the half mike mark
..maybe some bleeding issues there also ?? gets lasix today


solid works since returning although there was one 3 week break along the way

frankie named to ride and ness having a great meet..former probably wouldn't be aboard if there were issues ..trainer excellent first time routing

think #5 is formidable although last race was only a 3 horse field

#3 ml favorite closed a ton at laurel last race to finish 2nd..winner came back to repeat ..if I had to find a hole in that it would be pace was extremely fast by figures..lrl so maybe you can shed some light on that..does seem pretty fast w/o knowing the figures..also going 1 turn to 2 today..

could see an honest pace here which hopefully he's not a part of lol



factoring the price think he's kind of interesting..guessing odds significantly lower




.

guess fact he's up for sale and has to be considered also..not exactly chump change though..he doesn't have to be by the conditions might be a slight negative

[str]

hey str

parx

R5 #7 champion by design (12-1)

wanted to see what you think of this one..

to me..

solid first couple of races at pid
including winning his debut..might bode well that he runs well fresh


bled from the nostrils last race and prior race stopped fairly abruptly after the half mike mark
..maybe some bleeding issues there also ?? gets lasix today


solid works since returning although there was one 3 week break along the way

frankie named to ride and ness having a great meet..former probably wouldn't be aboard if there were issues ..trainer excellent first time routing

think #5 is formidable although last race was only a 3 horse field

#3 ml favorite closed a ton at laurel last race to finish 2nd..winner came back to repeat ..if I had to find a hole in that it would be pace was extremely fast by figures..lrl so maybe you can shed some light on that..does seem pretty fast w/o knowing the figures..also going 1 turn to 2 today..

could see an honest pace here which hopefully he's not a part of lol



factoring the price think he's kind of interesting..guessing odds significantly lower




.

Every now and then I can not make any sense out of what is going on. I think this, is that.

The horse clearly had breathing/bleeding/ respiratory issues in his last two starts. The race two back, he finished pulling up . That race would have called for scoping afterwards. If he didn't bleed, he still could have displaced his pallet, which you can make a horse do while scoping. Hard to believe nothing showed from that but it's possible. Maybe they simply put a tongue tie on and assumed that would fix the problem. Or maybe they did the myectomy after that race.

The "bled from the nostrils" could be anything. He could have actually bled. He could have hit his nose or face on the gate before the break. Other than the actual occurrence, I don't put a lot of stock in it without knowing what actually happened other than to say, yep, something happened again.
So he gets a reasonable break, comes back with Lasix which makes compete sense, trains, according to the works ( and you know me, well enough to know you can only see the times and you don't know if that was just as it looks or the last 1/2 mile of a one mile slow work) as though he will sprint fresh with Lasix and probably that myectomy I referred to, ( a simple procedure to slightly open the air way more for easier breathing) and he appears going long???
On the surface and paper which is all we have, this makes no sense. The trainer is very good at what he does so he have to read this basically blind. My first thought is that the race needed six horses to fill and be carded and being as the same people own both horses in here, this one was entered to get the race to go, and will scratch. In my limited view, I think that makes sense. If he runs, I don't see how I can form an opinion because I am really confused by the move. But he names the leading rider so toss that in for totally confused.

When a horse bleeds badly, what is usually done is to try to get it behind the horse both physically AND mentally, how ever long that takes. Then, breeze the horse with Lasix and scope to make sure nothing was going on that I could not see and find a spot to get the horses confidence back as soon as possible. That last part does not always pertain. Depends who the trainer is.
All that typically led to a winning effort if things went right.

This race is loaded with speed. Too me, it makes no sense. Again, the trainer knows what he is doing. However, from the form, I do not. Because of that I can't see how I could bet the horse. Maybe against it and shake my head if he beats me but not on him. That is probably being too smart for my own good as this horse certainly has talent.
The entered for a tag thing I get. Nobody will typically claim a horse after being eased and if he won, he could win the race twice by running back for no tag or the price again. See the conditions(claiming races not considered). That part I love. The rest, I'm totally confused.

I love you seeing that he won 1st out and that shows he runs well fresh. It sure does. great observation !

No question the 2 horse, the ML favorite looks solid. Tough to dismiss that horse from the form.

Same with the 5. Yes, a three horse field. But ran a real nice race last out and has run against better.

A lot going on in this race JBEX.



GL if you play.

[str]

guess fact he's up for sale and has to be considered also..not exactly chump change though..he doesn't have to be by the conditions might be a slight negative

Like I said. I really like the move. Lots of trainers that would not consider that.

A gambler would. It's the distance that has me scratching my head. If he scratches, then I see it very clearly.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Every now and then I can not make any sense out of what is going on. I think this, is that.

The horse clearly had breathing/bleeding/ respiratory issues in his last two starts. The race two back, he finished pulling up . That race would have called for scoping afterwards. If he didn't bleed, he still could have displaced his pallet, which you can make a horse do while scoping. Hard to believe nothing showed from that but it's possible. Maybe they simply put a tongue tie on and assumed that would fix the problem. Or maybe they did the myectomy after that race.

The "bled from the nostrils" could be anything. He could have actually bled. He could have hit his nose or face on the gate before the break. Other than the actual occurrence, I don't put a lot of stock in it without knowing what actually happened other than to say, yep, something happened again.
So he gets a reasonable break, comes back with Lasix which makes compete sense, trains, according to the works ( and you know me, well enough to know you can only see the times and you don't know if that was just as it looks or the last 1/2 mile of a one mile slow work) as though he will sprint fresh with Lasix and probably that myectomy I referred to, ( a simple procedure to slightly open the air way more for easier breathing) and he appears going long???
On the surface and paper which is all we have, this makes no sense. The trainer is very good at what he does so he have to read this basically blind. My first thought is that the race needed six horses to fill and be carded and being as the same people own both horses in here, this one was entered to get the race to go, and will scratch. In my limited view, I think that makes sense. If he runs, I don't see how I can form an opinion because I am really confused by the move. But he names the leading rider so toss that in for totally confused.

When a horse bleeds badly, what is usually done is to try to get it behind the horse both physically AND mentally, how ever long that takes. Then, breeze the horse with Lasix and scope to make sure nothing was going on that I could not see and find a spot to get the horses confidence back as soon as possible. That last part does not always pertain. Depends who the trainer is.
All that typically led to a winning effort if things went right.

This race is loaded with speed. Too me, it makes no sense. Again, the trainer knows what he is doing. However, from the form, I do not. Because of that I can't see how I could bet the horse. Maybe against it and shake my head if he beats me but not on him. That is probably being too smart for my own good as this horse certainly has talent.
The entered for a tag thing I get. Nobody will typically claim a horse after being eased and if he won, he could win the race twice by running back for no tag or the price again. See the conditions(claiming races not considered). That part I love. The rest, I'm totally confused.

I love you seeing that he won 1st out and that shows he runs well fresh. It sure does. great observation !

No question the 2 horse, the ML favorite looks solid. Tough to dismiss that horse from the form.

Same with the 5. Yes, a three horse field. But ran a real nice race last out and has run against better.

A lot going on in this race JBEX.



GL if you play.

some interesting perspectives..
the way he stopped 2 back might be more the reason for lasix rather than the bleeding from the nostrils which could be caused by other things..IF there was a myectomy done it's a little unusual to go long..one other thing I noticed and didn't bring up initially was how bad this trainer is 1st lasix factoring roi..sheesh not pretty lol

the possibility of being entered so the race would fill factoring he's got another serious contender makes a lot of sense..
maybe combine that with trying a route does signal he may be scratched


the tag if he does win allowing him to race again at this level also an excellent angle..as you said probably won't be taken off his last 2 races


interesting to see if he goes and how he's bet..appreciate the feedback str

[JBEX]

some interesting perspectives..
the way he stopped 2 back might be more the reason for lasix rather than the bleeding from the nostrils which could be caused by other things..IF there was a myectomy done it's a little unusual to go long..one other thing I noticed and didn't bring up initially was how bad this trainer is 1st lasix factoring roi..sheesh not pretty lol

the possibility of being entered so the race would fill factoring he's got another serious contender makes a lot of sense..
maybe combine that with trying a route does signal he may be scratched


the tag if he does win allowing him to race again at this level also an excellent angle..as you said probably won't be taken off his last 2 races


interesting to see if he goes and how he's bet..appreciate the feedback str

think I'm wrong about this..if you've won twice you're not eligible for this condition..it just gives you the option to run for a tag or not

[str]

think I'm wrong about this..if you've won twice you're not eligible for this condition..it just gives you the option to run for a tag or not

They didn't used to merge claiming and nw/2 allowance races back in the day so I never ran under those conditions so I would need a clear interpretation. As it reads, claiming races are not considered. Not considered for weight or wins and eligibility? Seems to me you could win for the tag, win the allowance and win again for the tag if you wanted to. If so, very crafty of him if that's his angle which I like. If not, it's improperly written IMO. I'm just not sure JBEX.
Can't say for sure though

[JBEX]

They didn't used to merge claiming and nw/2 allowance races back in the day so I never ran under those conditions so I would need a clear interpretation. As it reads, claiming races are not considered. Not considered for weight or wins and eligibility? Seems to me you could win for the tag, win the allowance and win again for the tag if you wanted to. If so, very crafty of him if that's his angle which I like. If not, it's improperly written IMO. I'm just not sure JBEX.
Can't say for sure though

you are correct.. sorry

[str]

you are correct.. sorry

Honestly, I don't now for sure. Seems I am seeing it correctly but it could be different.

It's odd but I get why they have to combine these races in todays game.

Guess he is going to run. I didn't see him scratched.

Have to admit, it's an odd scenario for sure.

[str]

The one thing I don't think I addressed was his chances in this race.

I'm so stuck on the odd distance for the comeback I never mentioned it I don't think.

Can't see it as the website is having issues today.

Anyway, the horse DOES have ability.

Under normal circumstances I would say he fits in general.

With the talent he has 12-1 is a good price. It's just the setup that is weird.

GL if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

my guess ..


you can run in this race for sale or not as long as you haven't won twice..the other part is nw 1x other than maiden or claiming races ..think both are in effect here

[JBEX]

gave it up after the half as you may have seen..guess there could still be multiple reasons why that happened .. is bleeding still a possibility even though he was treated with lasix ?

[str]

gave it up after the half as you may have seen..guess there could still be multiple reasons why that happened .. is bleeding still a possibility even though he was treated with lasix ?

I did see the chart. I STILL don't understand the move. I never will. In all the years I have been doing this, I do not recall ever seeing that scenario take place. I will say it again, it made no sense whatsoever. Maybe from some hack of a trainer but this guy does very well and I have heard good things about him. He is nobody's dummy. So I am at a loss.

Horses will definitely bleed through Lasix. I don't know if that was the case or not. But as of now, the horses mental game is a disaster.

The other problem he has is that the horse has now not finished 3 times in a row. Stewards rule horses off for that stuff so wherever he runs back and whenever he runs back, they better make it count. Horses also get a year ruled off for outwardly bleeding 3 times. Don't know if that is the case or not .
If the trainer gets this horse mentally right, physically right and sprints him, I think he wins his next race. He can run the horse for any price with that form. I would assume it will take a while though before he runs back. but obviously, I have been surprised with this horse before.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

I did see the chart. I STILL don't understand the move. I never will. In all the years I have been doing this, I do not recall ever seeing that scenario take place. I will say it again, it made no sense whatsoever. Maybe from some hack of a trainer but this guy does very well and I have heard good things about him. He is nobody's dummy. So I am at a loss.

Horses will definitely bleed through Lasix. I don't know if that was the case or not. But as of now, the horses mental game is a disaster.

The other problem he has is that the horse has now not finished 3 times in a row. Stewards rule horses off for that stuff so wherever he runs back and whenever he runs back, they better make it count. Horses also get a year ruled off for outwardly bleeding 3 times. Don't know if that is the case or not .
If the trainer gets this horse mentally right, physically right and sprints him, I think he wins his next race. He can run the horse for any price with that form. I would assume it will take a while though before he runs back. but obviously, I have been surprised with this horse before.
Thanks JBEX.

14k + starts and a nick under 25% winners..$65M+ earnings






bet you'd love to ask him respectfully what his thinking was with that horse




.

[JBEX]

hey str

thought you'd find this interesting..pertains to a race at sha tin tomorrow morning lol..has to do with running lines which I think you know I like to factor in..

they go back 5 races in the pp's there..using decimals for (lengths behind)




R8 #4 metro warrior

1000 meters both
18 days apart
same class


2 (.5) * 3(.75) * 4(2.25)
1 (nk) * 2(.5) * 2(.5)
big jock upgrade

so lost by 2.25 lengths and followed with a half length loss





1000 meters both
13 days apart
same class

3(1) * 3(1.25) * 9(3.5)
1(nk) * 2(nk) * 2 (sh)
placed 1st via dq

big jock upgrade

sh = short head = < head





1200 meters both
73 days apart
dropping class <<
surface switch grass/poly

much longer break and surface switch makes this a lot different
..almost identical line to the first
previous race I showed


2(.5) * 2(.75) * 4(2.25) last
today

jock upgrade to the one he won with on the dq


so imo the previous running lines are a good setup for the following good efforts..the jock upgrades say to me they mean business


if you can makes sense of this lol..what do you think






.

[str]

hey str

thought you'd find this interesting..pertains to a race at sha tin tomorrow morning lol..has to do with running lines which I think you know I like to factor in..

they go back 5 races in the pp's there..using decimals for (lengths behind)




R8 #4 metro warrior

1000 meters both
18 days apart
same class


2 (.5) * 3(.75) * 4(2.25)
1 (nk) * 2(.5) * 2(.5)
big jock upgrade

so lost by 2.25 lengths and followed with a half length loss





1000 meters both
13 days apart
same class

3(1) * 3(1.25) * 9(3.5)
1(nk) * 2(nk) * 2 (sh)
placed 1st via dq

big jock upgrade

sh = short head = < head





1200 meters both
73 days apart
dropping class <<
surface switch grass/poly

much longer break and surface switch makes this a lot different
..almost identical line to the first
previous race I showed


2(.5) * 2(.75) * 4(2.25) last
today

jock upgrade to the one he won with on the dq


so imo the previous running lines are a good setup for the following good efforts..the jock upgrades say to me they mean business


if you can makes sense of this lol..what do you think






.

Sure. I think it makes perfect sense.

If there is a pattern for success with a particular horse and it repeats itself, odds are it will work again.

That does not always equate to a win but it usually equates to a solid effort.

That's about all you can ask for.

Go for it, and let me know how it works out.

GL JBEX.

[JBEX]

Sure. I think it makes perfect sense.

If there is a pattern for success with a particular horse and it repeats itself, odds are it will work again.

That does not always equate to a win but it usually equates to a solid effort.

That's about all you can ask for.

Go for it, and let me know how it works out.

GL JBEX.

thanks str




would still be a play off the running line ,class drop and positive jock switch..time off and different surface is a big difference from the others.. will let you know

[BOA12]

Tracks cancelling after 2 Races

The last two days, have had three different tracks cancel on me; Monday MVR after 2 races, Tuesday SUN after two races and TuP after pre betting 6 races before R1 cancellation . I had a P3 R2 at SUN, hit leg one. No leg two or three. My $3 ticket, they refunded $1.90. Why not a full refund? Is this common or DRF who I use? Sometimes they keep a few cents. $1.10 I don't care about, but if I had a $300 ticket and they kept $110, I'd be pissed. Thanks.

[str]

The last two days, have had three different tracks cancel on me; Monday MVR after 2 races, Tuesday SUN after two races and TuP after pre betting 6 races before R1 cancellation . I had a P3 R2 at SUN, hit leg one. No leg two or three. My $3 ticket, they refunded $1.90. Why not a full refund? Is this common or DRF who I use? Sometimes they keep a few cents. $1.10 I don't care about, but if I had a $300 ticket and they kept $110, I'd be pissed. Thanks.

Was the payout different from DRF vs. the actual track payout?