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Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 11612

    #5496
    Originally posted by JBEX
    R10 #9 fifty sheas of grey (6-1)


    parx

    curious what you think of this one..pennington not riding if the last race is genuine (although eased is a little concerning) and two back just missed for a higher tag..this also a n2l but lets 3yo's get in without meeting that condition..only one 3yo in this race..breaks same post as that good effort and outside, speed good in parx routes..trainer tearing it up from a small sample
    This horses 2 life time best races were both off of sprints and stretching out. This will be it's 3rd try stretching out. I agree that the odds will probably be lower even though the horse was eased last out. Solid rider so I doubt the eased scares off too many.
    I can see why this one jumps out as a play if the price is ok.
    Just glanced at the others but most of them are crawlers.
    GL JBEX.
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23173

      #5497
      Originally posted by str
      This horses 2 life time best races were both off of sprints and stretching out. This will be it's 3rd try stretching out. I agree that the odds will probably be lower even though the horse was eased last out. Solid rider so I doubt the eased scares off too many.
      I can see why this one jumps out as a play if the price is ok.
      Just glanced at the others but most of them are crawlers.
      GL JBEX.

      thought the same thing lol even for this level..yes as you said, jockey will probably alleviate fears of unsoundness but of course it's not out of the question something is wrong


      have to think at 7500 and at minimum a n3l condition eligibility following this guy would be an attractive claim prospect..see what happens

      thanks str
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23173

        #5498
        Originally posted by JBEX
        thought the same thing lol even for this level..yes as you said, jockey will probably alleviate fears of unsoundness but of course it's not out of the question something is wrong


        have to think at 7500 and at minimum a n3l condition eligibility following this guy would be an attractive claim prospect..see what happens

        thanks str
        first off let me say I understand a lot more goes into that decision than reading the pp's.. obviously serious issues with this horse.. wonder if frankie was riding to possibly help attract some interest at the claim box ?? was not claimed


        I think being eased in your last race is often going to lead to a conservative ml.. with how he ran 2 back, top jockey riding and what we both felt was a weak field, not difficult to conclude he may go off a lot lower.. imo the ml is a bit of a curveball in this situation and that's an important thing to consider capping the race
        Comment
        • str
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-12-09
          • 11612

          #5499
          Originally posted by JBEX
          first off let me say I understand a lot more goes into that decision than reading the pp's.. obviously serious issues with this horse.. wonder if frankie was riding to possibly help attract some interest at the claim box ?? was not claimed


          I think being eased in your last race is often going to lead to a conservative ml.. with how he ran 2 back, top jockey riding and what we both felt was a weak field, not difficult to conclude he may go off a lot lower.. imo the ml is a bit of a curveball in this situation and that's an important thing to consider capping the race
          Isn’t this trainer Very young ?

          Seems like he did not think the horse would have no effort . Can’t imagine a young trainer having the balls to name a big name rider on a horse he had an idea might trail or worse . That’s REAL bad for business for a young trainer if he actually is fairly new.

          Agents talk and so do jocks. If he knew, that’s terrible. Gotta assume he did not as that is what probably is the case.

          No claims means he most likely has an easy to spot problem like a tendon that is bowed or a big knee, etc.

          The morning line thing is a track to track judgement. Sometimes they mean a lot. But some tracks they are a joke. I wrote a long piece on this years ago in here. I will look for it later.
          Morning lines can be done by a very solid, knowledgeable person or be a blow off job for a guy that is most likely over worked. Worse still is the guy that thinks he knows it all and sadly is very wrong in his thought process.
          Depends on the quality of the track in most cases.

          Personally I never look at them. Mainly because Maryland in my time, other than right around big events were so poorly calculated its like he spent 20 minutes tops on the card and I actually saw that happen with my own eyes early in my career.

          I used to go up to the press box a couple times a week to watch what went on. I knew the writers for the Balt. Sun and racing form so I would go there between races when an allowance race was in the paddock and I was not marking legs of claimers.

          Sometimes JBEX, it was a joke.
          Seeing what went on and the dumb comments I would hear actually was good to know because when you are young and just starting out, you assume everybody is sharp and you are still learning.

          Well, not the case . I was stunned at all I saw and heard that was sooo wrong I had to double check to see if they were kidding.
          That is why I have so little faith in morning lines until I can trust who makes that morning line. Each tracks lines maker has to show me they have a clue before I believe it.
          I mean, I wasn’t at Charlestown watching, I was a Pimlico. And I was shocked!

          All that said, some are excellent at making morning lines. I have the utmost respect for them.
          Hope that doesn’t confuse the issue. But I thought I should tell you that not all lines makers are equal in ability.
          Last edited by str; 03-01-22, 11:40 AM.
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23173

            #5500
            Tyler is John's son and he learned under him (not surprising) .. he's 30 years old and has been on his own for about 3 years

            from what you said doesn't make sense that he would know of a hole in the horse..you'd think coming up under his dad that would've been explained. can understand why that's not the thing to do with the top or one of the better jocks at the track


            the no claim I'm a little confused about..do you mean he couldn't change hands with an obvious physical issue and other trainers at the track might have suspected that ?


            that's great insight on the ml makers..you would think the guys you were listening to would have an intelligent opinion..I've always felt that the media people only scratch the surface compared to a handicapper who tries to read between the lines and spot subtler things ..probably part of that is they are speaking to a large audience with varying levels of capping knowledge..or maybe there just burnt out or lazy


            in general as the track level becomes lower the attention paid to it is less also (with exceptions of course) ..along the lines of what you said..I agree with that assessment from my experience .. I do think they will only go so low when horse's are eased in there last start..in general I like ml's as a starting point to look for the top contenders but certainly keep an open mind as to whether it's ,imo, accurate
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23173

              #5501
              hey str

              my lone pick today was a nose winner but wanted to ask you some questions about him


              gulfstream

              R7 #2 stormy pattern (9-2)



              his 3 races run prior

              debut

              runs 2nd 16 lengths behind a runaway winner..very fast figure for the winner .. mine may have been a little pace compromised by figures (understand the accuracy of these suspect)


              2 back

              2nd to a horse who repeated..pace was fair by the figures


              last race

              wins alone on the front end of a lively pace @ 1 mile .. understand there could have been a bias but rather just consider his line and the pace figures



              questions related to last race..

              is this type of race a good setup to cutback to 6.5 especially factoring the fast pace ? if so might have benefitted him today


              with 40 days off could some of the conditioning from his last race carry forward to today's race ?
              Comment
              • str
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-12-09
                • 11612

                #5502
                Originally posted by JBEX
                Tyler is John's son and he learned under him (not surprising) .. he's 30 years old and has been on his own for about 3 years

                from what you said doesn't make sense that he would know of a hole in the horse..you'd think coming up under his dad that would've been explained. can understand why that's not the thing to do with the top or one of the better jocks at the track


                the no claim I'm a little confused about..do you mean he couldn't change hands with an obvious physical issue and other trainers at the track might have suspected that ?


                that's great insight on the ml makers..you would think the guys you were listening to would have an intelligent opinion..I've always felt that the media people only scratch the surface compared to a handicapper who tries to read between the lines and spot subtler things ..probably part of that is they are speaking to a large audience with varying levels of capping knowledge..or maybe there just burnt out or lazy


                in general as the track level becomes lower the attention paid to it is less also (with exceptions of course) ..along the lines of what you said..I agree with that assessment from my experience .. I do think they will only go so low when horse's are eased in there last start..in general I like ml's as a starting point to look for the top contenders but certainly keep an open mind as to whether it's ,imo, accurate
                Q. the no claim I'm a little confused about..do you mean he couldn't change hands with an obvious physical issue and other trainers at the track might have suspected that ?

                A. He could have but claiming trainers for the most part try and keep at least some tabs on other claimers . I have to think at least one or two thought about claiming the horse but after looking at him closely in that 2-3 minute window before it was too late to drop a claim, they decided against it based on whatever the horse has wrong with them or they assumed was wrong with him.

                Q. that's great insight on the ml makers..you would think the guys you were listening to would have an intelligent opinion..I've always felt that the media people only scratch the surface compared to a handicapper who tries to read between the lines and spot subtler things ..probably part of that is they are speaking to a large audience with varying levels of capping knowledge..or maybe there just burnt out or lazy

                A. Plenty do have an intelligent opinion but in the case I was referring to, it was a well known handicapper for a local newspaper. But his answers to " how things are", was really wrong on some instances. And he was too old to try and reason with or explain the errors in his ways. He was well known and well liked and I guess with that, over time, you think that what you "think" is totally correct. And boy was he waaay off base in his thoughts. But he was an old dog and teaching new tricks was not going to happen. Especially from a young kid like me. I think I would have sounded like a jerk and disrespectful. So I said nothing.

                One other thing. I suppose that in todays world which is far different from the 70's, sharp handicappers have many more tools at their disposal. Back in the 70's I think it is fair to say that most handicappers were seriously lacking in the true understandings of what goes on. There were no more than a handful of David Aragona's or Craig Milkowski's. Beyer was around but in Md. you could count on one hand IMO, the people that had a big edge. Most of those players were younger then including Beyer. The old school guys were stuck on myths about what happens in races. At least that was what I saw and experienced.

                Things are definitely different today. So maybe back then, I had the fortune of being so young (20 when I saddled my first starter), that I was all about learning whereas older trainers were less willing to learn which as I get older I understand more and more each day. Lol.


                Q.
                in general I like ml's as a starting point to look for the top contenders but certainly keep an open mind as to whether it's ,imo, accurate

                A. Totally agree. Mainly because in these type of cases cases, there is a good chance that you have at least as good a handle on the game if not more so, than the handicapper does.
                Comment
                • str
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-12-09
                  • 11612

                  #5503
                  Originally posted by JBEX
                  hey str

                  my lone pick today was a nose winner but wanted to ask you some questions about him


                  gulfstream

                  R7 #2 stormy pattern (9-2)



                  his 3 races run prior

                  debut

                  runs 2nd 16 lengths behind a runaway winner..very fast figure for the winner .. mine may have been a little pace compromised by figures (understand the accuracy of these suspect)


                  2 back

                  2nd to a horse who repeated..pace was fair by the figures


                  last race

                  wins alone on the front end of a lively pace @ 1 mile .. understand there could have been a bias but rather just consider his line and the pace figures



                  questions related to last race..

                  is this type of race a good setup to cutback to 6.5 especially factoring the fast pace ? if so might have benefitted him today


                  with 40 days off could some of the conditioning from his last race carry forward to today's race ?
                  Q. is this type of race a good setup to cutback to 6.5 especially factoring the fast pace ? if so might have benefitted him today


                  A. When they have motor like this horse does, yes. He showed very good speed short and long. The horse is a runner!

                  Q. with 40 days off could some of the conditioning from his last race carry forward to today's race ?[/QUOTE]

                  A. All of the conditioning carried forward. All the trainer did was get the horse ready to go back into a race. The horse was dead fit and has natural speed. That mile race the horse ran made the trainers job super easy, especially for a turnback.

                  Very nice pick. I love horses like that!
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23173

                    #5504
                    ok str..some great insights there

                    less tools to work with in the 70's I can understand..heck imo even the form didn't start to make significant improvements till the early 90's when they got some competition from the short lived "racing times" ..finally had some speed figures to work with the biggest difference


                    I have always played it like the prior race has some meaning for conditioning even with longer time off than that..3 or 4 weeks no question.. good chance to reaffirm it here..I think if the pace figures on that race were avg/below avg that would have turned me off enough to pass on him


                    as always appreciate it str
                    Comment
                    • Easy-Rider 66
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 02-14-12
                      • 36088

                      #5505
                      Hey STR: the Fountain of Youth was run today at GP. There was spill and some on twitter are saying Paco Lopez needs to be suspended for his part in the spill. Below is the race from You Tube but they edited the spill. Can you tell anything by this replay? THX IN advance. FYI they did not take down Paco"s horse and he placed 2nd. Paco's horse is the #4.
                      Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-05-22, 11:42 PM.
                      Comment
                      • Easy-Rider 66
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-14-12
                        • 36088

                        #5506
                        Comment
                        • Easy-Rider 66
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-14-12
                          • 36088

                          #5507
                          If you go to Ray Paulick's twitter feed you can see the spill as he posted it. thx.
                          Comment
                          • Easy-Rider 66
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 02-14-12
                            • 36088

                            #5508
                            The replay from Racetrack Television Network also edits the spill.
                            Comment
                            • str
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 11612

                              #5509
                              Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                              Hey STR: the Fountain of Youth was run today at GP. There was spill and some on twitter are saying Paco Lopez needs to be suspended for his part in the spill. Below is the race from You Tube but they edited the spill. Can you tell anything by this replay? THX IN advance. FYI they did not take down Paco"s horse and he placed 2nd. Paco's horse is the #4.
                              I went to the Ray Paulick twitter and saw the replay. That replay cannot definitively allow me to make a call. Why? Because I need to see the " around the turn replay" which is a camera that is around the 1/4 pole but shows the run around the turn from higher up, so you can see everything that is going on. And why do I say that? Because when a spill occurs, you HAVE to see exactly why. You have to see the horses prior to, just as they touch and what the riders are doing. You can't assume something. You have to see it.

                              That angle does not allow me to see everything needed to take a horse down. And from everything I have ever learned from talking to Stewards, you cannot assume anything. You must see it and call it a foul or recognize that it caused further problems before you can call it.

                              I see Paco come out a path just before the fall. But I see the rider who he comes out on left hand drop down while holding the left rein. Was that because he was bumped? I think so but I am assuming. Was he trying to hold Paco inside with that hand move, which is what you would probably see? I can't tell which one it is.

                              So from a limited viewing angle, and not seeing all the necessary angles, I would say that the horse would not come down based on that alone. There is just not enough clear evidence for me to conclude otherwise.

                              Would really like to see the other angle but I doubt we will with all the editing these days of spills.

                              Probably not a popular answer but every spill does not require a DQ. Sometimes, it occurs for other reasons.

                              All the best EZ.



                              Hope that helps.
                              Comment
                              • Easy-Rider 66
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-14-12
                                • 36088

                                #5510
                                OK THX STR. makes sense what you say. surprised they edit the spills in this day and age.
                                Comment
                                • Easy-Rider 66
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 02-14-12
                                  • 36088

                                  #5511
                                  Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                  Hey STR: the Fountain of Youth was run today at GP. There was spill and some on twitter are saying Paco Lopez needs to be suspended for his part in the spill. Below is the race from You Tube but they edited the spill. Can you tell anything by this replay? THX IN advance. FYI they did not take down Paco"s horse and he placed 2nd. Paco's horse is the #4.
                                  Gulfstream Park stewards announced March 9a 14-day suspension to jockey Paco Lopez forcareless riding in the spill-marred Fasig-TiptonFountain of Youth Stakes (G2) March 5 and placedthe rider on probation through the remainder of thechampionship meet.
                                  Comment
                                  • str
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-12-09
                                    • 11612

                                    #5512
                                    Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                    Gulfstream Park stewards announced March 9a 14-day suspension to jockey Paco Lopez forcareless riding in the spill-marred Fasig-TiptonFountain of Youth Stakes (G2) March 5 and placedthe rider on probation through the remainder of thechampionship meet.

                                    My two cents:



                                    All of this careless riding stuff IMO falls directly on the Stewards. Some people might not like that comment but two former riders, hall of famers both of them, that at the time were Stewards at different tracks, told me point blank that there are two types of careless riding. The first is when the rider is young and just does not have enough control of their mount. Time and help from mentors fix that problem quickly. The second is when you have an aggressive style rider that has been inching towards a wrist slapping and it has not happened. What do all people like that end up doing? They push and push until they finally get pulled up.
                                    The Stewards job, as told by many former Stewards as well as many riders, is to control the aggressiveness in the jocks room. That is, when it gets too rough out on the track, it's time to hit the reset button. How do you do that. Start taking them down and giving them days. That gets all riders attention real quick. Trainers as well.

                                    If Stewards allow Paco and Irad to ride rough and constantly bounce there way around and through races everyday and do nothing, they will keep on doing it and will take it to whatever extreme they are allowed.

                                    I will say that when the Md. Stewards used to " clean things up" every 6-8 months or so as it slowly built up to the boiling point, it was pretty frustrating to watch your horse taken down because they were over scrutinizing each move. But... I understood that it needed to be done.

                                    Well, it needs to be done. Maybe this was a good first step. But if it doesn't continue to the point of almost looking to take riders down for the next week or two, than all this is is a wasted opportunity.

                                    I know this was Paco, and it would have been easy to hop on the take em down wagon when I saw what little I could see from the one replay angle that we saw. I am sure that another angle made things much clearer, but my previous post was more about calling what you can actually see instead of assuming what must have happened although you could not fully see it.

                                    Paco will need to be continually policed as he is a very aggressive rider and gets away with quite a bit. Irad, well, is out of control. That is solely at the feet of the NY and FLA. Stewards. He is, IMO, the best rider in the land. Personally , I don't think it's close. But you cannot let him do all that he does. A real disaster is waiting to happen if it keeps up.

                                    I, if still training, would ride Irad on every horse I could get him on. He is THAT big of an edge. Paco is a great guy to have on your team. No question about it. But if allowed to play as rough as they play, especially when going unchecked, it's only a matter of time before someone gets really hurt or worse. And that, from everything I was ever taught and ever knew, is ALL on the Stewards.
                                    Comment
                                    • Easy-Rider 66
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 02-14-12
                                      • 36088

                                      #5513
                                      THX for the take STR. Valid points.
                                      Comment
                                      • JBEX
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 23173

                                        #5514
                                        hey str


                                        thought you'd find "morello" interesting in the derby future pools..figure if all's well he'll be going in the wood memorial next
                                        ..if that's the case and he wins how about an undefeated horse who going into the derby increased his distance by exactly 1 furlong each race leading up to it..also opened up 3.5 lengths in the stretch in all of his races (actually 3.75 in debut)
                                        ..comment in his last 2 in race order ..brisk hand ride and mild hand ride

                                        realize an undefeated horse anything but subtle.. certainly
                                        would be interesting if he wins the wood especially if it's with relative ease
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23173

                                          #5515
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          hey str


                                          thought you'd find "morello" interesting in the derby future pools..figure if all's well he'll be going in the wood memorial next
                                          ..if that's the case and he wins how about an undefeated horse who going into the derby increased his distance by exactly 1 furlong each race leading up to it..also opened up 3.5 lengths in the stretch in all of his races (actually 3.75 in debut)
                                          ..comment in his last 2 in race order ..brisk hand ride and mild hand ride

                                          realize an undefeated horse anything but subtle.. certainly
                                          would be interesting if he wins the wood especially if it's with relative ease
                                          another interesting angle is on lezcano..he's ridden in the derby 3 times and the last time was in 2010 where he came in 2nd aboard ice box..as solid as they come throughout his career and yet a 12 year absence from the race with his last attempt being an excellent one


                                          (going off wiki for the derby info so hopefully it's accurate)




                                          .
                                          Comment
                                          • Easy-Rider 66
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 02-14-12
                                            • 36088

                                            #5516
                                            Comment
                                            • Easy-Rider 66
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 02-14-12
                                              • 36088

                                              #5517
                                              Hey STR: got another race to ask you about regarding Jose Lezcano's ride on the #4 Foxtail. Your take? THX in advance.
                                              Comment
                                              • Easy-Rider 66
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 02-14-12
                                                • 36088

                                                #5518
                                                After reviewing films of Aqueduct's first race on March 6 with jockey Jose Lezcano on Friday, the board of stewards at the Ozone Park, N.Y., racetrack will take no action against the rider.
                                                Lezcano rode the 8-year-old Foxtail to a second-place finish that day as the 2-1 second choice for owner-trainer Linda Rice in a $12,500 claiming race after repeatedly looking back and to his inside at the top of the stretch.
                                                According to the Equibase chart footnotes of the race, Foxtail “stalked outside the leading duo under stout restraint, engaged those leaders while still in hand in the four path around the turn, had the rider take a peek behind him at the five-sixteenths, took the advantage while the rider took five more looks to his inside into upper stretch, was asked while surprised by the presence of the winner to her outside at the three-sixteenths then lost the advantage, kept on under a drive while fighting inside that foe in the final furlong and just missed while well clear for the place.”
                                                Comment
                                                • str
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                  • 11612

                                                  #5519
                                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                                  hey str


                                                  thought you'd find "morello" interesting in the derby future pools..figure if all's well he'll be going in the wood memorial next
                                                  ..if that's the case and he wins how about an undefeated horse who going into the derby increased his distance by exactly 1 furlong each race leading up to it..also opened up 3.5 lengths in the stretch in all of his races (actually 3.75 in debut)
                                                  ..comment in his last 2 in race order ..brisk hand ride and mild hand ride

                                                  realize an undefeated horse anything but subtle.. certainly
                                                  would be interesting if he wins the wood especially if it's with relative ease
                                                  I can't think that any horse from NY will be over bet in the Derby. Undefeated or not it should be a decent price.

                                                  Interesting form and love the continual steady stretch outs.

                                                  Race looks wide open at this point unless I'm missing something which could be. Lol.

                                                  I try and pay attention but admittedly, not as much as I could.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • str
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 11612

                                                    #5520
                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                    another interesting angle is on lezcano..he's ridden in the derby 3 times and the last time was in 2010 where he came in 2nd aboard ice box..as solid as they come throughout his career and yet a 12 year absence from the race with his last attempt being an excellent one


                                                    (going off wiki for the derby info so hopefully it's accurate)




                                                    .
                                                    If that is right it is odd isn't it.

                                                    He is a real good rider.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23173

                                                      #5521
                                                      guess who's running in R5 @ tampa lol..#8 commandperformance (3-5).. it is a msw which you thought he might try since he's eligible
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JBEX
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                        • 23173

                                                        #5522
                                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                                        guess who's running in R5 @ tampa lol..#8 commandperformance (3-5).. it is a msw which you thought he might try since he's eligible
                                                        sure the bridge jumpers will be on it
                                                        Comment
                                                        • str
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-12-09
                                                          • 11612

                                                          #5523
                                                          Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                          I saw this race before and wondered if anyone was going to inquire about it. Thanks EZ !


                                                          As you watch the race, Foxtail, the 4 horse is on her right lead while running around the turn. That is a shame because she is an easy winner if she runs around the turn on her left lead which is how 99.9% of all the horses do. I do not know if she does this all the time but if so, it's very weird.
                                                          As a result, the rider had to keep a steady hold of her around the turn. If he had not, she would have drifted out several paths around the turn. The centrifugal force would have carried her out. It's like leaning to the right while going fast around a left turn. My guess is if that had happened the eventual winner would have come inside of her to rally.

                                                          So that explains the rider holding her in until they straighten away. So what is he doing at that point? It looks to me that he was so focused on the horse that was boxed in behind those three across the track horses that he wanted to keep that one boxed in. It also looked like he might have said something to the rider inside of him, possibly from that riders whip action that might have hit his horse by accident. I am not sure of that but it is not really a big deal if it did happen IMO as that happens more than people think. That is at 49-50 seconds for what it's worth. Not even sure it happened but if so, again, no big deal IMO.

                                                          So the rider is IMO, overthinking having to deal with the right lead around the turn which is a lot to be concerned with, and trying to box in the closer behind the wall, which allowed him to lose track of the outside horse. That said, there was nothing he could have done until they straightened away for home with the lead problem. So until 50 seconds everything is as best as he could do no matter what any other horse did. It's the 5 seconds after that where he looks once and then a second time to keep the closer behind the wall there .

                                                          At that point he lost track of the outside horse and when he responds at 55 seconds, he is caught. That said, his horse should have typically had enough to go on and out finish that outside closer but that right leg had to be out of oxygen and be tiring. The horse tried hard as did the rider but could not come again and win.

                                                          So:

                                                          Q. Was it a bad ride?

                                                          A. I guess he over thought that inside horse some which is easy to say now because that horse did not catch him.

                                                          Q. Were the optics bad?

                                                          A. Absolutely. BUT, it was that wrong lead around the turn that had a whole lot to do with it.

                                                          Q. Should he get days for that ride?

                                                          A. Not in my opinion unless an investigation dug up something else.


                                                          Some bettors see this and think fix. I get it but they do not know the whole story behind what was happening especially around the turn.

                                                          I read what the rider said to the trainer after the race and I am fine to call it a screw up and move on. And let's keep in mind these were bottom claimers in NY. Not some filly with shown talent.

                                                          Hope that answers your question EZ. If not, please follow up.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • str
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 11612

                                                            #5524
                                                            Originally posted by JBEX
                                                            guess who's running in R5 @ tampa lol..#8 commandperformance (3-5).. it is a msw which you thought he might try since he's eligible
                                                            He is obviously running a short horse with two 1/2 mile works and 3 5/8ths works going long. Thus, we go to Tampa where he is soooo much the best he can win short. LOL. That's a bridge I wouldn't want to be jumping.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JBEX
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-02-12
                                                              • 23173

                                                              #5525
                                                              Originally posted by str
                                                              He is obviously running a short horse with two 1/2 mile works and 3 5/8ths works going long. Thus, we go to Tampa where he is soooo much the best he can win short. LOL. That's a bridge I wouldn't want to be jumping.
                                                              well obviously something not right with this horse and maybe that explains his delayed 3yo debut..even top 3 was a little scary in the stretch and you were right in him being a shakey all in horse ..getting blinkers,first lasix ?? any comments welcome
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11612

                                                                #5526
                                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                well obviously something not right with this horse and maybe that explains his delayed 3yo debut..even top 3 was a little scary in the stretch and you were right in him being a shakey all in horse ..getting blinkers,first lasix ?? any comments welcome
                                                                I will have to see the replay as I did not see the race. Did he win?

                                                                I know my math was correct on when he would be fit from our discussion a month ago so If he isn’t right, chalk this up to pushing a nice horse to run in the Derby . Hope not . We will see. That would suck.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Easy-Rider 66
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 02-14-12
                                                                  • 36088

                                                                  #5527
                                                                  Originally posted by str
                                                                  I saw this race before and wondered if anyone was going to inquire about it. Thanks EZ !


                                                                  As you watch the race, Foxtail, the 4 horse is on her right lead while running around the turn. That is a shame because she is an easy winner if she runs around the turn on her left lead which is how 99.9% of all the horses do. I do not know if she does this all the time but if so, it's very weird.
                                                                  As a result, the rider had to keep a steady hold of her around the turn. If he had not, she would have drifted out several paths around the turn. The centrifugal force would have carried her out. It's like leaning to the right while going fast around a left turn. My guess is if that had happened the eventual winner would have come inside of her to rally.

                                                                  So that explains the rider holding her in until they straighten away. So what is he doing at that point? It looks to me that he was so focused on the horse that was boxed in behind those three across the track horses that he wanted to keep that one boxed in. It also looked like he might have said something to the rider inside of him, possibly from that riders whip action that might have hit his horse by accident. I am not sure of that but it is not really a big deal if it did happen IMO as that happens more than people think. That is at 49-50 seconds for what it's worth. Not even sure it happened but if so, again, no big deal IMO.

                                                                  So the rider is IMO, overthinking having to deal with the right lead around the turn which is a lot to be concerned with, and trying to box in the closer behind the wall, which allowed him to lose track of the outside horse. That said, there was nothing he could have done until they straightened away for home with the lead problem. So until 50 seconds everything is as best as he could do no matter what any other horse did. It's the 5 seconds after that where he looks once and then a second time to keep the closer behind the wall there .

                                                                  At that point he lost track of the outside horse and when he responds at 55 seconds, he is caught. That said, his horse should have typically had enough to go on and out finish that outside closer but that right leg had to be out of oxygen and be tiring. The horse tried hard as did the rider but could not come again and win.

                                                                  So:

                                                                  Q. Was it a bad ride?

                                                                  A. I guess he over thought that inside horse some which is easy to say now because that horse did not catch him.

                                                                  Q. Were the optics bad?

                                                                  A. Absolutely. BUT, it was that wrong lead around the turn that had a whole lot to do with it.

                                                                  Q. Should he get days for that ride?

                                                                  A. Not in my opinion unless an investigation dug up something else.


                                                                  Some bettors see this and think fix. I get it but they do not know the whole story behind what was happening especially around the turn.

                                                                  I read what the rider said to the trainer after the race and I am fine to call it a screw up and move on. And let's keep in mind these were bottom claimers in NY. Not some filly with shown talent.

                                                                  Hope that answers your question EZ. If not, please follow up.
                                                                  THX again STR. appreciate your insight that the average player does not see.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JBEX
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                                    • 23173

                                                                    #5528
                                                                    Originally posted by str
                                                                    I will have to see the replay as I did not see the race. Did he win?

                                                                    I know my math was correct on when he would be fit from our discussion a month ago so If he isn’t right, chalk this up to pushing a nice horse to run in the Derby . Hope not . We will see. That would suck.
                                                                    2nd 5+ lengths behind the winner who wired the field..no apparent excuses from what I saw but if you want to take a look at some point like to hear your opinion
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • str
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                                      • 11612

                                                                      #5529
                                                                      Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                                      THX again STR. appreciate your insight that the average player does not see.
                                                                      It’s my pleasure EZ. I hope that this thread helps players see things more clearly.
                                                                      That was my intention from day one.

                                                                      All the best.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Easy-Rider 66
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-14-12
                                                                        • 36088

                                                                        #5530
                                                                        Originally posted by str
                                                                        It’s my pleasure EZ. I hope that this thread helps players see things more clearly.
                                                                        That was my intention from day one.

                                                                        All the best.

                                                                        STR=THE TRUE PLAYER"S ADVOCATE.
                                                                        Comment
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