Horse Racing questions and answers

**JBEX** · 07-04-20, 09:09 AM

in the race after after ad's horse.. #3 starry messenger (50-1) ran on a 4 day rest last out after running at mnr race prior.. now coming back 2 weeks later to try again.. that's a lot of moving around in a short period of time.. taking down 3rd or 4th would probably get a lot of that back for the owner trainer.. I actually think the starter allowance race at mnr @ 7f was not a bad effort.. interesting underneath horse imo

happy 4th str !!

**str** · 07-04-20, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

in the race after after ad's horse.. #3 starry messenger (50-1) ran on a 4 day rest last out after running at mnr race prior.. now coming back 2 weeks later to try again.. that's a lot of moving around in a short period of time.. taking down 3rd or 4th would probably get a lot of that back for the owner trainer.. I actually think the starter allowance race at mnr @ 7f was not a bad effort.. interesting underneath horse imo

happy 4th str !!

Just looked at Tony's horse and yes, it's a tough race but that is not a surprise on Met mile day. 15-1 is high IMO. Can't think if they ran the race 15 times he wouldn't win at least one of them. I'll play it in the contest. Gotta stick with my old foreman.

Happy 4th to you JBEX as well as everyone here at SBR !

**str** · 07-04-20, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

in the race after after ad's horse.. #3 starry messenger (50-1) ran on a 4 day rest last out after running at mnr race prior.. now coming back 2 weeks later to try again.. that's a lot of moving around in a short period of time.. taking down 3rd or 4th would probably get a lot of that back for the owner trainer.. I actually think the starter allowance race at mnr @ 7f was not a bad effort.. interesting underneath horse imo

happy 4th str !!

I don't know if this is the same guy that raced in Md. back when I did or not. Either way, I can't imagine why of all the races there are on the east coast, he lands on this one. I just don't get shipping to be 100-1. But hey, I've seen them pay 200+ to win before.
The horse does try. Gotta applaud the horse for that.

**JBEX** · 07-05-20, 07:30 PM

hey str

if you want to see a horse perform nothing like his past performance's look at #1 freudian analyst in R5 at belmont..where'd that come from lol..he went off 99-1 to the dime..realize surface switch but has to be something beyond that..one of the more amazing contrasts ,pp to race ,I've seen

**str** · 07-07-20, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

hey str

if you want to see a horse perform nothing like his past performance's look at #1 freudian analyst in R5 at belmont..where'd that come from lol..he went off 99-1 to the dime..realize surface switch but has to be something beyond that..one of the more amazing contrasts ,pp to race ,I've seen

It seems like every track has its couple of trainers that must do it as a hobby.That was the case in Md. over my years. The way they run their horses, it cannot possibly be for profit. They would starve to death. And while I do get that the horse is running in NY bred bottom races and therefore nowhere to drop without shipping, if you are really trying to earn a living, no horse is better than one that runs terribly almost all the time.
That must be the case here. No doubt this horse could be winning races somewhere.

The old adage I learned was :

"Training is simply a matter of placement".

And while it really isn't quite that simple, in many ways, it is.

**JBEX** · 07-07-20, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by str

It seems like every track has its couple of trainers that must do it as a hobby.That was the case in Md. over my years. The way they run their horses, it cannot possibly be for profit. They would starve to death. And while I do get that the horse is running in NY bred bottom races and therefore nowhere to drop without shipping, if you are really trying to earn a living, no horse is better than one that runs terribly almost all the time.
That must be the case here. No doubt this horse could be winning races somewhere.

The old adage I learned was :

"Training is simply a matter of placement".

And while it really isn't quite that simple, in many ways, it is.

probably a good candidate for delaware, laurel, mountaineer or penn .. all as you know have turf courses.. still amazed he could turn things around so much from what he did prior.. sht happens I guess

thanks str

**str** · 07-07-20, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

probably a good candidate for delaware, laurel, mountaineer or penn .. all as you know have turf courses.. still amazed he could turn things around so much from what he did prior.. sht happens I guess

thanks str

Maybe he caught a flier leaving the gate in an otherwise paceless race. In other words, he lunged forward just as the gates opened and caught a lucky break, then ran as fast as he was until the race really started at the 1/4 pole?

Didn't see a replay but as good a theory as any with bad form like that.

Wonder if he jams him back in for a quarter or raises him up to MSW? Lol.

**JBEX** · 07-07-20, 05:40 PM

gates open 2:47:35..if somebody told me they liked this horse before the race I'd probably say you need a freudian analysis

https://youtu.be/FHX5ecck1lI

**JBEX** · 07-08-20, 08:08 PM

hey str

salzman has a 2yo firster in R1 at belmont #3 trewish (20-1)..boy he must really like these horses to even consider doing this (no surprise a field of beasts).. remember you told me he focuses on 2yo's and plays the game aggressively.. see if she runs

**str** · 07-09-20, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

hey str

salzman has a 2yo firster in R1 at belmont #3 trewish (20-1)..boy he must really like these horses to even consider doing this (no surprise a field of beasts).. remember you told me he focuses on 2yo's and plays the game aggressively.. see if she runs

I think this one could be a little different.

Overall, turf racing mindset , from all I used to see was a different animal than dirt. So in this case, and not knowing if they even offer turf racing in Md. or not although I can't imagine why not, this might be more about the old " this horse seems to handle the turf real well and is really bred for it". You are always open to that when you breeze on the turf. So this might be about getting a turf race into the horse with very little to lose. Hard to know for sure on Turf whereas on dirt, they probably have a solid opinion for sure.
The giveaway is the May 30th workout. After that, everything was very controlled. I have to think the horse has talent but as you noted, she better, as several in here look very solid.
A nicer effort would put them in an immediate spot to sell at a high premium. And they have raced in that baby stake at Monmouth going a mile in August, on the grass, and won it before. IMO, you always have to give them due consideration in these spots because of the low risk, high reward situation. Even against what looks like a real solid field.

Scratching again would seem a bit reckless to me, in that it would be the 2nd time in a row they scratched a firster out of a shorter type field up there. Keep that up and the racing secretary will start getting PO'ed. Shouldn't get cute and mess with that.

**JBEX** · 07-09-20, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by str

I think this one could be a little different.

Overall, turf racing mindset , from all I used to see was a different animal than dirt. So in this case, and not knowing if they even offer turf racing in Md. or not although I can't imagine why not, this might be more about the old " this horse seems to handle the turf real well and is really bred for it". You are always open to that when you breeze on the turf. So this might be about getting a turf race into the horse with very little to lose. Hard to know for sure on Turf whereas on dirt, they probably have a solid opinion for sure.
The giveaway is the May 30th workout. After that, everything was very controlled. I have to think the horse has talent but as you noted, she better, as several in here look very solid.
A nicer effort would put them in an immediate spot to sell at a high premium. And they have raced in that baby stake at Monmouth going a mile in August, on the grass, and won it before. IMO, you always have to give them due consideration in these spots because of the low risk, high reward situation. Even against what looks like a real solid field.

Scratching again would seem a bit reckless to me, in that it would be the 2nd time in a row they scratched a firster out of a shorter type field up there. Keep that up and the racing secretary will start getting PO'ed. Shouldn't get cute and mess with that.

can understand scratching again would not win favor with the racing secretary..interesting and makes sense that even a 2nd or 3rd in a field like that could increase the horses value..she's going and a local riding..not the listed md jockey

**str** · 07-09-20, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

can understand scratching again would not win favor with the racing secretary..interesting and makes sense that even a 2nd or 3rd in a field like that could increase the horses value..she's going and a local riding..not the listed md jockey

Wow. Just saw the results.

What the hell was that.

I don't like to bash but man, that effort was embarrassing.

Nothing I have ever seen before with that outfit. Honestly.

No one result draws a conclusion but that horse better improve by leaps and bounds next out or everything I have spoken about is yesterday's news.

**JBEX** · 07-09-20, 08:22 PM

maybe he's baiting us with hopeless horses and he's got one a month or 2 away that's gonna tear them up at 124-1 at saratoga

**JBEX** · 07-09-20, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

maybe he's baiting us with hopeless horses and he's got one a month or 2 away that's gonna tear them up at 124-1 at saratoga

and that one will attempt it in a restricted msw race which they had quite a few of last year

**str** · 07-10-20, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

maybe he's baiting us with hopeless horses and he's got one a month or 2 away that's gonna tear them up at 124-1 at saratoga

Well, if that's the plan, it's right on course.

Yesterday was a mess.

**JBEX** · 07-10-20, 10:35 AM

those restricted's are a good thing..leaves out some of the beasts and gives the more modest horses a shot without risk of losing them

**str** · 07-11-20, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

those restricted's are a good thing..leaves out some of the beasts and gives the more modest horses a shot without risk of losing them

I saw some of those last year.

I think it is a great idea .

It allows for most of the backside to be able to compete without running against a gorilla or two, or three, that cost a fortune.

**JBEX** · 07-13-20, 08:47 AM

hey str

salzman has a 2yo fts in delaware R4 with blazing works.. stidham has 2, along with capuano and another name I've seen before jeremiah o'dwyer (owner also) has good stats.. no opinion on race but since I've been letting you know about salzman figured I'd pass it on

**str** · 07-13-20, 02:37 PM

Seen no entries or results. Here is my answer to these trainers.
Salzman with fast works usually means very solid and the money shows.
Stidham always solid with firsters.
Capuano if the horse can do it fine. And he does like to win first out but does not kill them to do it.
O’Dwyer good with babies in general from a small sample size but I have no clue on firsters in particular. At least I think that’s who this trainer is. Might have him mixed up with someone else.

**JBEX** · 07-13-20, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by str

Seen no entries or results. Here is my answer to these trainers.
Salzman with fast works usually means very solid and the money shows.
Stidham always solid with firsters.
Capuano if the horse can do it fine. And he does like to win first out but does not kill them to do it.
O’Dwyer good with babies in general from a small sample size but I have no clue on firsters in particular. At least I think that’s who this trainer is. Might have him mixed up with someone else.

and after giving you all those names ,steve klesaris wins @ 7-2 lol..capuano(9-2)/o'dwyer (8-1)/stidham (5-1) comprised 2-4..klesaris was a firster also

**JBEX** · 07-13-20, 05:13 PM

this was the running line of my horse in the delaware turf marathon @ 1 3/8 miles today..

1c..1st by 1.5
2c.. 1st by .5
3c.. 2nd head
4c ..4th by 3
finish.. 6th by 8

12 horse field

2 races back won vs maiden claiming 40k at laurel at 1 mile on the dirt..

last race finished 2nd by about 7 lengths vs alw n1x ot at delaware (high fig race.. dirt route)..

does seem from the pars that the laurel races are faster at approximately the same level..

don't have pp's right in front of me now but both of the above races were recent and I believe it was a short layoff prior to them

mark shuman the trainer and he had 2 winners from 4 starters and I believe a 2nd or 3rd also
at the meet early on

have to think that'll give him a lot of bottom if he decides to dirt route with him next time out.. wonder if he was possibly thinking along those lines going in .. it was his first turf race

**str** · 07-14-20, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

and after giving you all those names ,steve klesaris wins @ 7-2 lol..capuano(9-2)/o'dwyer (8-1)/stidham (5-1) comprised 2-4..klesaris was a firster also

Saw the chart. Steve's horse, the money showed and he is a solid trainer. The next three all make sense. The money really did not show on Salzman's horse. 5-1 with bullets in my mind and John Sr's reputation isn't as strong as it would have been back in the day. All in all, pretty much makes sense I guess.

**str** · 07-14-20, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

this was the running line of my horse in the delaware turf marathon @ 1 3/8 miles today..

1c..1st by 1.5
2c.. 1st by .5
3c.. 2nd head
4c ..4th by 3
finish.. 6th by 8

12 horse field

2 races back won vs maiden claiming 40k at laurel at 1 mile on the dirt..

last race finished 2nd by about 7 lengths vs alw n1x ot at delaware (high fig race.. dirt route)..

does seem from the pars that the laurel races are faster at approximately the same level..

don't have pp's right in front of me now but both of the above races were recent and I believe it was a short layoff prior to them

mark shuman the trainer and he had 2 winners from 4 starters and I believe a 2nd or 3rd also
at the meet early on

have to think that'll give him a lot of bottom if he decides to dirt route with him next time out.. wonder if he was possibly thinking along those lines going in .. it was his first turf race

All I can do is go on what I used to be thinking or figured others were with certain moves. I think he must have felt that the distance was something he needed to try. Maybe breeding pushed him there, or the horses overall makeup. Certainly something. I don't think he would have seen the race and figured it would be a fitness helper but more of something he felt needed to be explored. It did not work. So yes, afterwards, he can train lightly and let the horse recover without doing a whole lot and then cut back to maybe a 2 turn 1 1/16th or something like that. Making lemonade out of lemons I guess.
Kinda hard to make too many conclusions without all the details but it sounds like the horse is just not quite an "a other than" horse right now. He will win it this winter when it's 4 and up if dirt works but might be several lengths behind right now. A nw/2 for 25-30k would be ideal it sounds like.
I never really knew him other than see him run some. Think he came around Md. right after I left or was leaving. Did know the name from Phila. Park I think in the 90's . Long time ago though so not positive.

**JBEX** · 07-14-20, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by str

All I can do is go on what I used to be thinking or figured others were with certain moves. I think he must have felt that the distance was something he needed to try. Maybe breeding pushed him there, or the horses overall makeup. Certainly something. I don't think he would have seen the race and figured it would be a fitness helper but more of something he felt needed to be explored. It did not work. So yes, afterwards, he can train lightly and let the horse recover without doing a whole lot and then cut back to maybe a 2 turn 1 1/16th or something like that. Making lemonade out of lemons I guess.
Kinda hard to make too many conclusions without all the details but it sounds like the horse is just not quite an "a other than" horse right now. He will win it this winter when it's 4 and up if dirt works but might be several lengths behind right now. A nw/2 for 25-30k would be ideal it sounds like.
I never really knew him other than see him run some. Think he came around Md. right after I left or was leaving. Did know the name from Phila. Park I think in the 90's . Long time ago though so not positive.

ok good to know.. you think it was probably an earnest attempt at getting it done and if not something to adjust to going forward training wise if it didn't work .. when I see a line like that always feel it could give the horse a little umph next out in a middle distance race.. but guess it's not that simple and depends on the horse and the trainer's read on how the horse came out of the race including when to bring him back.. btw graham motion finished 1st and 2nd for a $30 exacta ($2)..kind of his thing turf marathons or any turf for that matter.. thanks str

**JBEX** · 07-14-20, 08:55 AM

actually going to use it in R7 at indiana today on #3 proud n famous (20-1).. but this time it's route to sprint vs marathon to route.. like other things about the horse besides which is always the case for me when I use this angle... like the fact he's lightly raced and even though the 2yo numbers are a little light, he's probably a little more mature and filled out now.. also his attempt at 6f vs alw horses was against open company and then tried a state bred stakes going two turns .. back in vs statebreds at 6f and trainer has solid roi numbers so must pop a price here and there.. if you can't look I got my write up done for my thread lol

**str** · 07-15-20, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

ok good to know.. you think it was probably an earnest attempt at getting it done and if not something to adjust to going forward training wise if it didn't work .. when I see a line like that always feel it could give the horse a little umph next out in a middle distance race.. but guess it's not that simple and depends on the horse and the trainer's read on how the horse came out of the race including when to bring him back.. btw graham motion finished 1st and 2nd for a $30 exacta ($2)..kind of his thing turf marathons or any turf for that matter.. thanks str

Q. when I see a line like that always feel it could give the horse a little umph next out in a middle distance race.. but guess it's not that simple and depends on the horse and the trainer's read on how the horse came out of the race including when to bring him back.

A. Absolutely. Spot on IMO.

Q. btw graham motion finished 1st and 2nd for a $30 exacta ($2)..kind of his thing turf marathons or any turf for that matter.

A. Trainers strengths constantly can be traced back to their roots while learning the game. Relax is Grahams game .

It's Jonathan Sheppard 2.0 which is obviously a good thing.

**str** · 07-15-20, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

actually going to use it in R7 at indiana today on #3 proud n famous (20-1).. but this time it's route to sprint vs marathon to route.. like other things about the horse besides which is always the case for me when I use this angle... like the fact he's lightly raced and even though the 2yo numbers are a little light, he's probably a little more mature and filled out now.. also his attempt at 6f vs alw horses was against open company and then tried a state bred stakes going two turns .. back in vs statebreds at 6f and trainer has solid roi numbers so must pop a price here and there.. if you can't look I got my write up done for my thread lol

A nice drop in class can't hurt. Makes sense .

Saw the write up and used to train a horse with the same name as one of the picks. Ballroom Blitz. Wanted to post the old picture from Bowie but ran out of time.

**JBEX** · 07-15-20, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by str

Q. when I see a line like that always feel it could give the horse a little umph next out in a middle distance race.. but guess it's not that simple and depends on the horse and the trainer's read on how the horse came out of the race including when to bring him back.

A. Absolutely. Spot on IMO.

Q. btw graham motion finished 1st and 2nd for a $30 exacta ($2)..kind of his thing turf marathons or any turf for that matter.

A. Trainers strengths constantly can be traced back to their roots while learning the game. Relax is Grahams game .

It's Jonathan Sheppard 2.0 which is obviously a good thing.

yeah I've always liked cutbacks when they show a little life to the stretch call but the turf marathons to routes obviously don't happen as much..have to keep an eye out when he returns next time..wasn't aware graham motion came up under sheppard but makes perfect sense..always that name with sheppard "augustin stable" george strawbridge..they've bred some nice horses over the years

I did a write up last race at parx yesterday..sheppard had a jumper coming off a 14 month layoff running against state bred maiden claimers (flats )..terribe field I thought even relative to that condition..he got it done around 5-2..had a horse on the lead the whole way but he came like a freight train last 100 yards and got up ..probably more to do with the other one tiring lol

thanks str

**JBEX** · 07-15-20, 08:44 AM

I know you've discussed this before and figured you'd want to know about this if you don't.. about rick dutrow being denied a license to train in kentucky

KHRC denies a license to suspended trainer Dutrow

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/KHRC_decides_not_to_issue_a_license_to_suspended_trainer_Rick_Dutrow_Jr_123

KHRC declines to issue a license to suspended trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.

**str** · 07-16-20, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

I know you've discussed this before and figured you'd want to know about this if you don't.. about rick dutrow being denied a license to train in kentucky

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Dutrow_Jr_123

It's all self preservation which is not only sad but pitiful as well JBEX.

Meanwhile the golden boy just logged his 26th and 27th drug violation and got 15 days.
But as is lawyer points out, it’s the grooms and assistants fault For the contamination and the overages were only 2 times and 9 times over the threshold levels.
Of course, the absolute insurer rule has been successfully challenged so we just need to decide if we like the person or not as to how to set forth a ruling.
Funny thing is, there used to be zero thresholds and one trillionth of a gram was a positive which caused loss of purse and 15 days.
Nowadays 9 times that is just a terrible mistake that couldn’t possibly have affected the horses performance.
Actually, it’s not funny. It’s a disgrace. It’s things like these separate actions that make me miss the game less and less.

**JBEX** · 07-16-20, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by str

It's all self preservation which is not only sad but pitiful as well JBEX.

Meanwhile the golden boy just logged his 26th and 27th drug violation and got 15 days.
But as is lawyer points out, it’s the grooms and assistants fault For the contamination and the overages were only 2 times and 9 times over the threshold levels.
Of course, the absolute insurer rule has been successfully challenged so we just need to decide if we like the person or not as to how to set forth a ruling.
Funny thing is, there used to be zero thresholds and one trillionth of a gram was a positive which caused loss of purse and 15 days.
Nowadays 9 times that is just a terrible mistake that couldn’t possibly have affected the horses performance.
Actually, it’s not funny. It’s a disgrace. It’s things like these separate actions that make me miss the game less and less.

it really is a shame and interesting timing with baffert getting suspended..remember when you explained what a master horsemen and workaholic his dad (and your mentor) was so it's not surprising rick was so good.. I asked you if to get as good as he was did he have to have innate abilities besides the great education he got from his dad and you agreed..He was just too good and they framed him to get him out..Have to think with someone like dr bramblage testifying on his behalf that it would carry some weight..Gave him the highest grades for taking care of his horses,being proactive and cooperative..Didn't cut corners with them..still 3 more years for ny if I read it correctly but you can't get back 10 years ..really terrible miscarriage of justice

**JBEX** · 07-16-20, 09:58 AM

hey str

just saw something a little interesting in saratoga R4.. may mean nothing but figured I throw it at you.. trombetta is shipping in a first time starter (3yo filly).. she'd been working steadily at laurel since the end of march but for her last work he sent her to fair hill for a 3f breeze.. could that possibly signify something or just not enough info? I like the horse because of her speed pedigree and my cost a lot relative to the pedigree specs angle

**str** · 07-16-20, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

hey str

just saw something a little interesting in saratoga R4.. may mean nothing but figured I throw it at you.. trombetta is shipping in a first time starter (3yo filly).. she'd been working steadily at laurel since the end of march but for her last work he sent her to fair hill for a 3f breeze.. could that possibly signify something or just not enough info? I like the horse because of her speed pedigree and my cost a lot relative to the pedigree specs angle

I assume Mike has horses stabled at both places. What this shows is the decision to run at Saratoga was made prior to the last work for this horse. In all probability, he simply switched stalls with a horse that was close to running at Laurel, or might have even run recently because this happened what, 2 weeks ago, that at the time was stabled at Fair Hill.

Sounds like they just moved the horses around. Another thing it avoids though is having to check the horse out of Laurel to go to Saratoga. There would be no negative recourse for shipping to Fair Hill from the racing secretary but could be if you shipped to race somewhere else and therefore the stall was not used to participate at Laurel. It's political in that respect but very common. Trainers can get in the grease with management if they do that often or even ever, depending on how the total entries are filling and how much the trainer participates. Management keeps score of all those statistics. Hope that makes sense.

**JBEX** · 07-16-20, 10:44 AM

should have mentioned the work was 5 days ago which might be relevant..sounds like by what you're saying it's nothing pertinent to how he feels about the horse ..I thought maybe going out of his way to do that might signify something..thanks str

**str** · 07-16-20, 12:06 PM

Yeah. I assumed it was 4-5 days ago. They probably moved the horses prior to that or maybe the day of , if he wanted to ship and work as a dry run for ship and run today. But...
Just depends on several things. Also gotta think he has some stalls at Saratoga and if so, the horse probably shipped to Saratoga the day after the last work so 4 days ago. That would allow for a couple of gallops over Saratoga and a trip to the saddling area for practice.
All that makes sense.