Horse Racing questions and answers

[Tellc1]

If a guy is playing Win and Place is it smart to double up your Place wager? Or when you guys play win and place you just keep them equal?

[Louisvillekid1]

If a guy is playing Win and Place is it smart to double up your Place wager? Or when you guys play win and place you just keep them equal?

Think it depends on your handicapping confidence in the horse, I would never say bet this much to place and this much to win like a robot...

if you like a horse that’s 12/1 that you feel is an overlay or should be lower and has a chance to hit the board , you’d wanna bet much more on place.

I also think the odds have to play a factor , as I don’t bet to place on horses less than like 6/1 - 8/1 ( if I’m betting win also )

nothing wrong with just betting place on any odds

but i don’t advise betting WP on low odds horse

either take a stand with the win bet or pass

at 4-1 or less your basically just getting your money back on a 20/20 WP bet
Instead of 20/20 on a 3/1 that you like to win, I’d rather bet 40 to win because if your a good handicapper I believe your ROI will be better getting the more win $$ or just taking the lose

but just how I play ,
but then again I’m more win oriented handicapper , as I like multi race bets and win bets

the vertical wagers I don’t play a ton

mostly when I key a horse I really like to win

[Tellc1]

Think it depends on your handicapping confidence in the horse, I would never say bet this much to place and this much to win like a robot...

if you like a horse that’s 12/1 that you feel is an overlay or should be lower and has a chance to hit the board , you’d wanna bet much more on place.

I also think the odds have to play a factor , as I don’t bet to place on horses less than like 6/1 - 8/1 ( if I’m betting win also )

nothing wrong with just betting place on any odds

but i don’t advise betting WP on low odds horse

either take a stand with the win bet or pass

at 4-1 or less your basically just getting your money back on a 20/20 WP bet
Instead of 20/20 on a 3/1 that you like to win, I’d rather bet 40 to win because if your a good handicapper I believe your ROI will be better getting the more win $$ or just taking the lose

but just how I play ,
but then again I’m more win oriented handicapper , as I like multi race bets and win bets

the vertical wagers I don’t play a ton

mostly when I key a horse I really like to win

Thanks! Good info!

[JBEX]

If a guy is playing Win and Place is it smart to double up your Place wager? Or when you guys play win and place you just keep them equal?

I agree with lkid1 that on low odds (for me it's 5-2 or lower) only play win and not place.. to me it's more of a choice of how much rather than varying the amount on win/place.. disclaimer I don't play but how I would bet if I did.. in other words if at 5 to 10-1 you are a $10 bettor then at 15 to 20-1 you are a $7 bettor (same WP).. understand you could be playing in advance or odds could change while you are close to post but in theory I feel you should adjust amount and WP should be the same.. no right answer and it's just my take

[str]

Understanding conditions is extremely important and sometimes overlooked by handicappers.

An angle I used a lot , is at many tracks the lowest condition level is on dirt , and if a mainly turf horse is dropping to run on dirt at a lower level to move up to the next condition in the future it’s really overlooked. Punters, will say this horse is trying a new surface or find negatives , often creating value for the handicapper.

I see it around the conditions you guys are talking

I.e Track may have 8k as the lowest level on grass

but 5/6k on dirt


turf horse drops after attempts at that 8k

goes green to brown @ 5/6k and wires em

moves on...

One of the big reasons you see this is for the horse to become eligible for starter handicaps for the next year. A 5k starter handicap on the turf or 7500 , can be a safe spot to run a superior horse for a long time and just rake in the cash.
that being said, I agree with everything else you mentioned as well.

[str]

I like it going route to sprint if the horse was within about 5 lengths to the stretch call...last eighth I actually prefer they fade as that to me might be a sign that a lot of running was done early on..also looks worse in the pp's..think this is an excellent conditioner and along with the class drop horse could be ready for a big effort next out..prefer the horse to have run well on the dirt in at least one of his previous races to use this

These are excellent points.

[str]

Str, you didn’t check into my Florida derby thread

what did you think?

I felt like you woulda enjoyed it

I get the 96 Beyer came back low

and it’s shame there won’t be a natural triple crown this year

I think this horse is special , and want my fav rider manny Franco to get a chance at the big stage

barclay Tagg such an old time classic patient trainer ...

I didn't check in but I read a bunch of it. I loved it.

It is a shame but if any trainer in America can work around that schedule, it's Barclay Tagg. Good guy, tough to work for guy. No nonsense, no BS, just get the job done attitude. Wonder where he learned that . LOL.

Barclay is a classic old time patient trainer. He learned from one of the very best. The guy in JBEX's avatar.

[str]

Are there any good handicappers to follow for the Australia tracks?

Unfortunately, I do not know of any either.

[Tellc1]

I agree with lkid1 that on low odds (for me it's 5-2 or lower) only play win and not place.. to me it's more of a choice of how much rather than varying the amount on win/place.. disclaimer I don't play but how I would bet if I did.. in other words if at 5 to 10-1 you are a $10 bettor then at 15 to 20-1 you are a $7 bettor (same WP).. understand you could be playing in advance or odds could change while you are close to post but in theory I feel you should adjust amount and WP should be the same.. no right answer and it's just my take

Thank you for your input! That’s what you’re doing on your posts when you do some @ 1 and some @ 3 correct?

[str]

Look you’ll appreciate this

recognize the jockeys in the first pick ?

jose on the horse in jockey school and my fav rider walking

then yesterday with the flowers

and those men started connections

barclay Tagg , Tom Voss , & the giant killer Allen Jerkens

thought you’d appreciate this

WOW !!!

I sure do Kid. Thank you for posting those.

The pics of Jerkins, Voss and Tagg looks like it was taken at the gap the horses enter to train in the AM. It is always typical of trainers on ponies to wait at the gap and watch their horses train in the morning there. And, oh the stories. Bet you would have loved to listen in on that conversation. The pics of Voss and Tagg do remind me of what I often saw while training in the morning in Maryland and Delaware. Heart squeeze... thank you !

[Tellc1]

Unfortunately, I do not know of any either.

I’ll stick to the good ole’ USA then! Unless I’m really bored!

[str]

I love this sport like nothing other


jbex, str, others

we gotta get a beer sometime


love you guys

Maybe a couple.

[str]

have a plan going in

if you lose , you lose

don’t chase

it’ll eat you up

communicate

can’t play every race

play a pick 4 if you a single

play a pick 5 if you have 2 singles

play a pick 6 w/ 3 singles or payout / carryover days

but 1st and foremost respect the game

I will just add one thing to the if you lose you lose.

As long as you learn something from it, I always considered it just keeping my money warm for me.

You have to keep learning. In this game, it never ever stops.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great point.

Always look back after races

learn everyday

[str]

I like andy beyer's books..

beyer on speed
the winning horseplayer

two editions of each.. the updated versions the titles are in white lettering


and steve crist's

exotic betting



can't go wrong with any of those

I think these books are very solid. And getting two different approaches are important. There is no one way to do it. Develop YOUR style. But that will take a while. So learn by reading those books. You don't have to be exactly like them, but it is good to see things from different perspectives. And if you read the Beyer On Speed, you might just see in an example, where a horse was claimed, the name of the trainer that claimed the horse has the same initials that my horse in my avatar wore on his blinkers.

[str]

no problem jmc..anything by steve davidovitz,james quinn,dave litfin and an oldie but goodie mark cramer..his book thoroughbred cycles a good read ..but the primaries I'd say are beyer and crist..the latter more about wagering strategies and bet structuring

Agree again .

[str]

If a guy is playing Win and Place is it smart to double up your Place wager? Or when you guys play win and place you just keep them equal?

Both guys gave very solid answers. Totally agree about the place bet. For me, I just don't want any parts of doubling or tripling my exposure by betting to show if the payoff isn't probably three times more than the bet and preferably more. I don't care for a 5.00 place price. That is a 3-2 bet and I think that is a loser long term. But if the horse is 12-1 or higher, I can live with a win and place bet. It is important to not end up putting more into the race than you feel makes sense. That's why for me, show is a non starter no matter the odds. And place is for those higher priced horses.
Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

Thank you for your input! That’s what you’re doing on your posts when you do some @ 1 and some @ 3 correct?

yes it's a combination of factoring odds and strength of opinion..of course i'm doing it well in advane so can only estimate what they might be

[str]

If a guy is playing Win and Place is it smart to double up your Place wager? Or when you guys play win and place you just keep them equal?

Another way to play the 2nd position on a longer horse is if you really think the favorite is very solid but want to try to beat it. You can play a win bet and then play a straight favorite on top of your win bet horse. Check the exacta payoff 1st if you can but if the horse is even money and wins, and you were 12-1 and finish 2nd, you might only get 6.00 to place because of the heavy action on the favorite in the place pool. Chances are the 2.00 exacta with the favorite winning and your 12-1 second, will pay 40.00 or something like that. Yes, if you horse does run 2nd but the favorite does not beat you, you missed out on the place price. But... if you were really worried about losing to that favorite, you kind of missed the race anyway. At the end of the day, it's about how you see the race and your level of confidence. Seems odd to bet more handle on a less confident pick, so maybe the 2.00 exacta with the favorite on top, if you are concerned about it, isn't such a bad idea compared to 4.00 to place.

See what I mean?

[JBEX]

Another way to play the 2nd position on a longer horse is if you really think the favorite is very solid but want to try to beat it. You can play a win bet and then play a straight favorite on top of your win bet horse. Check the exacta payoff 1st if you can but if the horse is even money and wins, and you were 12-1 and finish 2nd, you might only get 6.00 to place because of the heavy action on the favorite in the place pool. Chances are the 2.00 exacta with the favorite winning and your 12-1 second, will pay 40.00 or something like that. Yes, if you horse does run 2nd but the favorite does not beat you, you missed out on the place price. But... if you were really worried about losing to that favorite, you kind of missed the race anyway. At the end of the day, it's about how you see the race and your level of confidence. Seems odd to bet more handle on a less confident pick, so maybe the 2.00 exacta with the favorite on top, if you are concerned about it, isn't such a bad idea compared to 4.00 to place.

See what I mean?

yes I think this is an excellent approach..could even add the 2nd choice on top in exactas..as you said you obviously miss if 3rd or higher odds wins but I think the collections when you do hit make it worthwhile overall..double digit odds finish 2nd a lot more than first even in the lower range..I think if you can put your ego aside and focus on these horses finishing 2nd your bottomline might look better over time..it is tough when they win though and you've got nothing or just a small hedge bet down

[Tellc1]

Both guys gave very solid answers. Totally agree about the place bet. For me, I just don't want any parts of doubling or tripling my exposure by betting to show if the payoff isn't probably three times more than the bet and preferably more. I don't care for a 5.00 place price. That is a 3-2 bet and I think that is a loser long term. But if the horse is 12-1 or higher, I can live with a win and place bet. It is important to not end up putting more into the race than you feel makes sense. That's why for me, show is a non starter no matter the odds. And place is for those higher priced horses.
Hope that makes sense.

Makes good sense! Thanks!

[Tellc1]

Another way to play the 2nd position on a longer horse is if you really think the favorite is very solid but want to try to beat it. You can play a win bet and then play a straight favorite on top of your win bet horse. Check the exacta payoff 1st if you can but if the horse is even money and wins, and you were 12-1 and finish 2nd, you might only get 6.00 to place because of the heavy action on the favorite in the place pool. Chances are the 2.00 exacta with the favorite winning and your 12-1 second, will pay 40.00 or something like that. Yes, if you horse does run 2nd but the favorite does not beat you, you missed out on the place price. But... if you were really worried about losing to that favorite, you kind of missed the race anyway. At the end of the day, it's about how you see the race and your level of confidence. Seems odd to bet more handle on a less confident pick, so maybe the 2.00 exacta with the favorite on top, if you are concerned about it, isn't such a bad idea compared to 4.00 to place.

See what I mean?

Yes I do. Thanks!

[Tellc1]

yes I think this is an excellent approach..could even add the 2nd choice on top in exactas..as you said you obviously miss if 3rd or higher odds wins but I think the collections when you do hit make it worthwhile overall..double digit odds finish 2nd a lot more than first even in the lower range..I think if you can put your ego aside and focus on these horses finishing 2nd your bottomline might look better over time..it is tough when they win though and you've got nothing or just a small hedge bet down

Yep...sometimes that feels worse than a loss

[Ventura]

Another way to play the 2nd position on a longer horse is if you really think the favorite is very solid but want to try to beat it. You can play a win bet and then play a straight favorite on top of your win bet horse. Check the exacta payoff 1st if you can but if the horse is even money and wins, and you were 12-1 and finish 2nd, you might only get 6.00 to place because of the heavy action on the favorite in the place pool. Chances are the 2.00 exacta with the favorite winning and your 12-1 second, will pay 40.00 or something like that. Yes, if you horse does run 2nd but the favorite does not beat you, you missed out on the place price. But... if you were really worried about losing to that favorite, you kind of missed the race anyway. At the end of the day, it's about how you see the race and your level of confidence. Seems odd to bet more handle on a less confident pick, so maybe the 2.00 exacta with the favorite on top, if you are concerned about it, isn't such a bad idea compared to 4.00 to place.

See what I mean?

This is what my Dad does. He plays his price horse to win then plays 3 or 4 horses on top in an exacta for a $1. He seems to do well with it.

[Louisvillekid1]

biancone said ete indien lost a shoe , cut his hind leg and had a grabbed heel

said it was actually an impressive and gutsy effort to still get third

how bad is this str? How long does this set him back ?

[Louisvillekid1]

This is what my Dad does. He plays his price horse to win then plays 3 or 4 horses on top in an exacta for a $1. He seems to do well with it.

I like the sound of this

[Tellc1]

Are any of you in the business? Owners, etc...? I’d love to look into it. Been into sports and animals my whole life. Spent my life farming. Now raise whitetail deer and elk in Indiana.

[JBEX]

Are any of you in the business? Owners, etc...? I’d love to look into it. Been into sports and animals my whole life. Spent my life farming. Now raise whitetail deer and elk in Indiana.

not me but your state has an excellent state bred program.. nice purses and many stakes races restricted to Indiana breds.. are you near indiana grande?

[str]

biancone said ete indien lost a shoe , cut his hind leg and had a grabbed heel

said it was actually an impressive and gutsy effort to still get third

how bad is this str? How long does this set him back ?

The grabbed quarter is nothing to worry about at all. They will wrap that 2 days and then let it get air and it will be fine well before he breezes again. Once they cut that flap off, it ill toughen up fairly soon. The tendon and hock suck. Those will blow up no doubt and he will probably need 3 days of terramycin , an antibiotic, then he will most likely be stove piped ( filled , losing its definition ), for a few days with filling. It will subside by the end of the week and jogging, with bell boots on to protect that 1/4, and light galloping in about 2 weeks will probably occur. The light training will help alleviate the filling by getting blood circulated to the back leg.
They will be in no hurry and over 3 weeks, he should be back to fine and ready for a breeze providing that tendon did not get injured . If it did, it could be a bad problem but it looks nice and tight now so hopefully he will be fine.
They won't be in any hurry to run back anyway so it should not be a long term problem according to the picture.

The tough thing about those type of hind end injuries is the lack of blood flow to the area. It is the furthest from the heart so they take longer to heal but I've had plenty look like that after a race when losing a shoe or getting run up on, and unless that tendon is an issue, he should be just fine in a few weeks.

[str]

This is what my Dad does. He plays his price horse to win then plays 3 or 4 horses on top in an exacta for a $1. He seems to do well with it.

Dad knows his stuff Ventura. I see he taught you well.

Did he ever follow Maryland racing?

By the way, great job in the contest the other day.

[str]

Are any of you in the business? Owners, etc...? I’d love to look into it. Been into sports and animals my whole life. Spent my life farming. Now raise whitetail deer and elk in Indiana.

Not any more.

1972-2000 was my timeline.

[Ventura]

Are any of you in the business? Owners, etc...? I’d love to look into it. Been into sports and animals my whole life. Spent my life farming. Now raise whitetail deer and elk in Indiana.

I own.

My personal take is you need to consider it a hobby before a business. If you go into ownership expecting to turn a profit you can/will get soured very easily.

I agree with what jbex says about the Indiana breds. They run some really nice purses. There a few guys from where I’m at (Nebraska) that own/run a lot at Indiana in the summer/fall.

[Tellc1]

not me but your state has an excellent state bred program.. nice purses and many stakes races restricted to Indiana breds.. are you near indiana grande?

Yes. Very close.

[Tellc1]

I own.

My personal take is you need to consider it a hobby before a business. If you go into ownership expecting to turn a profit you can/will get soured very easily.

I agree with what jbex says about the Indiana breds. They run some really nice purses. There a few guys from where I’m at (Nebraska) that own/run a lot at Indiana in the summer/fall.

Nice! I’m definitely going to look into it more. I work for a pretty high profile guy too who is also interested.

[JBEX]

hey str


coolmore is starting to promote "mo town" on tvg...a lot of anthony dutrow commentary in the preview..below a link to their site where you can see it

https://coolmore.com/farms/america/videos