[mikemca]

On Fire again...all 6 winners with 2 bein g 10-1 ml

[wildrides]

Hey mike, just got your pm. Thanks for taking the time to send it out. I'm really looking forward to your analysis. Looks like your having good day. Congrats. I tried to pm you. However the site wouldn't allow me. Anyway thanks.

[Madison]

Been shut out twice and they're not even loaded. TVG and just tried MM. WTF.

Well, saved there as 2,3 spit the bit in the 7th at Sar.

Closers coming on. Does this set up for the Kitten in the 9th?

[mikemca]

Been shut out twice and they're not even loaded. TVG and just tried MM. WTF.

Well, saved there as 2,3 spit the bit in the 7th at Sar.

Closers coming on. Does this set up for the Kitten in the 9th?

I'm thinking Kitten's Dumplings bounced pretty bad and still won

[Madison]

Took the Kitten wp (forgive me mike) and threw the 2 out using the 4 and 5 up and down with the 6 in ex. The 2 actually ran pretty game for being off the lead first time. Kind of dissappointed in the 4/5.

[mikemca]

Anyone playing derby wars today? Im in the sar survivor and the 10K qualifier both starting in race 3.

Still a few spots for todays qualifier. Dont think I ever asked what name do you go by there?

I finished 2nd by $2.10....My SN is Dynaformer

[Slimpickens]

I finished 2nd by $2.10....My SN is Dynaformer

I saw that great job and good luck in the 10 dime game on Saturday. I surely wont be in it. Glad someone had a good day. I needed the favorite in race 3 to start out a cold $50 dollar pick 3. Im sure you saw what happened was probably 20 lenghts best but Joel decided to take him on a tour of Saratoga during the race.

[mikemca]

no time for write ups and them pm'ing 15 different people.If this where a school paper I gave it a C+ effort.Kind of rushed all morning because of busy day.





Saratoga

Race 1
Not going to pretend I have the slightest clue how to handicap the hurdlers.I do know that Paddy Young is arguably the best jumprider and T Voss is in with the elite jump trainers.So I guess it's 6-Kingdom for me.

Race 2
All first time starters so you have to wait and see what the board tell you.There is a Pletcher in here so you should almost always use his firsters unless they drift above morning line.That is a really bad sign and should stay away.Sometime even if the ml is 7-5 and at post time he is 7-5 that is a bad sign.When his horses are super live they will be 3-5 not matter the ML.Anyway if you are looking for an alternative then 6-Pure Sensation 12-1 is the one.C Clement is very popular with bettors on the turf however he sometimes gets overlooked on dirt.He may be the best turf trainer in the USA but he is still a damn good trainer on dirt too .You will find many better bets with his horses on dirt than turf.

Race 3
OK you may want to ignore me this race as I'm am playing this horse strictly because she is from Big Brown and making the first start of her career.Big Brown was arguably the most precocious horse in my lifetime and stayed that way until the Belmont travesty.Big Brown has passed on the gene as his 2 year olds are running lights out right out of the box.Oh her name is 7-Little Miss Brown.

Race 4
Doesn't look bettable.Almost sure that the exacta will be made up of 2 of the 4 lowest mls.(2-1...5-2...3-1...7-2)

Race 5
1st time starter --Pletcher/Johnny V/Our Amazing Rose = move on

Race 6
8-Concise 4-1 will be hard to beat if he brings his Europe form with him.

Race 7
3-Viva Allegiance 8-1 Feeling --- C Clement is going to have some wins today and you get the best odds before they show how good they are as is the case with this 1ster.


Running out of time


Race 8
1-Salutos Amigos 6-1 (Might be my best bet...Has been impressive on turf in AM workouts)

Race 9
10-Beverage Queen (Nothing jumping out)
8-Zencat 12-1
4-Casual Elegance

Race 10
4-Sokitumi Samarai 30-1 --my Bomb stab of the day with 2,3

[Madison]

Very nicely done in the 7th Mike. Horse looks real.

[mikemca]

Yeah we saw some of the future who will be knocking heads with the top if their divisions today

[Timmay]

So.... I'm back for this weekend and need to bet $900. Don't know a lick about horses lol


Mikemca.... You seem like you know your stuff

What do you recommend for me?

I'm not sure if you remember me.... I was the one talking about anything pretty conservative to just get your money back and kind of break out even..... Soooo maybe a big fave to show or something..... But don't mind gambling a bit

What do you think is the best plays for Sat/Sun at Saratoga and Del Mar?


Thanks a lot man

[mikemca]

So.... I'm back for this weekend and need to bet $900. Don't know a lick about horses lol


Mikemca.... You seem like you know your stuff

What do you recommend for me?

I'm not sure if you remember me.... I was the one talking about anything pretty conservative to just get your money back and kind of break out even..... Soooo maybe a big fave to show or something..... But don't mind gambling a bit

What do you think is the best plays for Sat/Sun at Saratoga and Del Mar?


Thanks a lot man

Will definitely let you know.I;ll be back home tonight and get into tomorrows card then

[harthebar]

I have to ask ...why do you need to bet 900 ?

So.... I'm back for this weekend and need to bet $900. Don't know a lick about horses lol


Mikemca.... You seem like you know your stuff

What do you recommend for me?

I'm not sure if you remember me.... I was the one talking about anything pretty conservative to just get your money back and kind of break out even..... Soooo maybe a big fave to show or something..... But don't mind gambling a bit

What do you think is the best plays for Sat/Sun at Saratoga and Del Mar?


Thanks a lot man

[harthebar]

Bad Hombre is entered to run on July 26, 2013, at SARATOGA race 8 also transparent race 8
tiu and bernies best race 6
sweet sway race 4
entry 1 1a race 10 very strong. either could win

[Madison]

I have to ask ...why do you need to bet 900 ?

Beat me to it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Mike: Race 6 used the #3. Paid about $19 to place. Secured a win in a small contest. Thx.

[balls2wall]

I have to ask ...why do you need to bet 900 ?

I have been assuming it is to collect some kind of deposit bonus

I was thinking he signed up somewhere solely for the bonus

could be wrong

[mikemca]

Mike: Race 6 used the #3. Paid about $19 to place. Secured a win in a small contest. Thx.

gj congrats

[wildrides]

Mike, i'm trying figure out track bias. It seems if you can figure out how the track is playing, you could have an advantage. Well a couple weeks ago i was going through some results and noticed that each and every race at a particular track was won by an "E" type horse. However the next day the results were nowhere near that. I'm curious how much weight you put into track bias? How to figure it out? And how to figure when it may change? Is it smething that changes on a daily basis? Not sure if i'm making much sense. Any insight would be helpful! Thanks

[Timmay]

Exactly

I have been assuming it is to collect some kind of deposit bonus

I was thinking he signed up somewhere solely for the bonus

could be wrong

[Timmay]

Any leans for Sat/Sun Saratoga and Del Mar?

[mikemca]

Mike, i'm trying figure out track bias. It seems if you can figure out how the track is playing, you could have an advantage. Well a couple weeks ago i was going through some results and noticed that each and every race at a particular track was won by an "E" type horse. However the next day the results were nowhere near that. I'm curious how much weight you put into track bias? How to figure it out? And how to figure when it may change? Is it smething that changes on a daily basis? Not sure if i'm making much sense. Any insight would be helpful! Thanks

Yeah track bias is a huge edge if you can catch it before the public is aware.It can be a day to day thing but sometimes last whole meets or some tracks are notorious for some bias.Like Parx and Churchill Downs are known to have dead rails alot.That means that any horse running 1 or 2 paths of the rail is running in quicksand.And since that is naturally where the early speed ends up those bias favor closers coming wide.Any other time going 4-5 wide is a bad thing but on tracks like that it should be the jocks preference.You can't be too quick to label a front running bias because front runners are going to win more often than not in general as they get the best trips.It is much easier to find a closer friendly track because you will see speed after speed hit the brakes come the stretch and it's even more obvious when they are favorites.

[wildrides]

So, i would assume the jockeys and trainers would understand track bias and try to neutralize it as best they could. I don't know how to catch an edge. It seems like if you pick your spots maybe you can end up with good value. But more often then not i end up on the same horses as everyone else. I've got a long way to go to fogure this out.

[str]

So, i would assume the jockeys and trainers would understand track bias and try to neutralize it as best they could. I don't know how to catch an edge. It seems like if you pick your spots maybe you can end up with good value. But more often then not i end up on the same horses as everyone else. I've got a long way to go to fogure this out.

Shockingly no, most don't know as much as they should.

[str]

Shockingly no, most don't know as much as they should.

The problem is that very few have someone to REALLY show them the difference. Many think they see it but don't see the whole picture.

Trust me when I tell you that you have more info as to the reality of what a bias really is within this sub forum than 90% of all the trainers have. And don't even get me started with most jockey's.

[Timmay]

So.... Who does everyone like today?

[wildrides]

The problem is that very few have someone to REALLY show them the difference. Many think they see it but don't see the whole picture.

Trust me when I tell you that you have more info as to the reality of what a bias really is within this sub forum than 90% of all the trainers have. And don't even get me started with most jockey's.

Thats interesting. I've got alot of work to do. Thanks str, i've stared reading through your thread. Lot of good stuff. Thanks.

[JJJ]

any picks today mike???

[mikemca]

Kind of afraid to post these after the horrible day I had yesterday but...

Saratoga

Race 1
6-Play It Loud and 7-Joha are legitimate favorites
3-One More Cat and 5-Hamp are 10-1 shots for value

Race 2
If the faves aren't cranked you can go with anyone.
8-Striking Style 10-1 (Matz is more than capable on turf)

Race 3
7-Strike Charmer 8-1 (Almost closed down a nice filly in debut)

Race 4
1/1A-Zito Entry 12-1
6-Prince Curlin 15-1 (Would be on top if not for trainers terrible layoff results)
8-Tapulous 5-2 (Big drop)

Race 5
11-Oklahoma Den 12-1 (May have a better chance on fair turf at Spa rather than merry go round at Monmouth)

Race 6
5-Silent Thunder 10-1 (If takes to turf has better than 10-1 chance)

Race 7
9-Beat Of The Drum 10-1
11-Hamme Dancer 10-1 (Like the 10-1 Jerkens horses about the same.Both improving and have room to grow from last race)
1-Sneaky Freud 8-1 (Could steal it with Castellano up)
8-Meeker Avenue 20-1 (Another who could go in a race lacking early speed)

Race 8
10-Honorable Pass 8-1 (Not many with good turf form so why not play this one to steal it...Maker good 1st turf)

Race 9
2-Cap The Moment 15-1 (Is right there with the best in here but really hard to back Jock and Trainer)

Race 10
4-Salutos Amigos 12-1 (The favorites are mostly closers and not much speed)
1-Mentor Cane 6-1 (Should be right on the 4s hip)
2-Forty Tales 2-1 (Can't let this one beat me)

Race 11
9-Spin Chief 6-1 (At the ML is best bet)

[str]

Kind of afraid to post these after the horrible day I had yesterday but...

Saratoga

Race 1
6-Play It Loud and 7-Joha are legitimate favorites
3-One More Cat and 5-Hamp are 10-1 shots for value

Race 2
If the faves aren't cranked you can go with anyone.
8-Striking Style 10-1 (Matz is more than capable on turf)

Race 3
7-Strike Charmer 8-1 (Almost closed down a nice filly in debut)

Race 4
1/1A-Zito Entry 12-1
6-Prince Curlin 15-1 (Would be on top if not for trainers terrible layoff results)
8-Tapulous 5-2 (Big drop)

Race 5
11-Oklahoma Den 12-1 (May have a better chance on fair turf at Spa rather than merry go round at Monmouth)

Race 6
5-Silent Thunder 10-1 (If takes to turf has better than 10-1 chance)

Race 7
9-Beat Of The Drum 10-1
11-Hamme Dancer 10-1 (Like the 10-1 Jerkens horses about the same.Both improving and have room to grow from last race)
1-Sneaky Freud 8-1 (Could steal it with Castellano up)
8-Meeker Avenue 20-1 (Another who could go in a race lacking early speed)

Race 8
10-Honorable Pass 8-1 (Not many with good turf form so why not play this one to steal it...Maker good 1st turf)

Race 9
2-Cap The Moment 15-1 (Is right there with the best in here but really hard to back Jock and Trainer)

Race 10
4-Salutos Amigos 12-1 (The favorites are mostly closers and not much speed)
1-Mentor Cane 6-1 (Should be right on the 4s hip)
2-Forty Tales 2-1 (Can't let this one beat me)

Race 11
9-Spin Chief 6-1 (At the ML is best bet)

Mike,

There are a ton of guys in here that REALLY appreciate you posting these. The comments associated help people better understand the logic behind what you try and do.They make perfect sense and speak to a consistent pattern that you seem to use.
I hope you win them all but I hope you post just like this often, when time permits , more.
These are the tools novice, and even not so novice players need so as to understand that handicapping is an art form and each player can have their own style.
Good job Mike. I'll be rooting for you!

[balls2wall]

Mike,

There are a ton of guys in here that REALLY appreciate you posting these. The comments associated help people better understand the logic behind what you try and do.They make perfect sense and speak to a consistent pattern that you seem to use.
I hope you win them all but I hope you post just like this often, when time permits , more.
These are the tools novice, and even not so novice players need so as to understand that handicapping is an art form and each player can have their own style.
Good job Mike. I'll be rooting for you!

Very well said and very true

[JJJ]

thanks for the picks mike you the man

[Madison]

Ditto. Depend on them.

[mikemca]

Thx guys...I'll definitely go into as much detail when I can .Was unsure if it was going to rain today up there

[Madison]

Ohh my, I hit the ex 9/10 in r2 at Sar but threw in Mike's 8. 9/8 was 13-1/13-1 leading in the stretch.