Ken Ramsey is making a mockery of the game...Thought he would just win 40% at KEE but now he is doing it everywhere ,even in NY.
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I hear ya! and agree. Still tough to swallow though. Nice work today although I made no use of it.Comment -
Hey Mikemca, I was wondering about who you like for Sat and Sunday at Del Mar and Saratoga?
I don't need something uber conservative. If you were to bet 1k......
What would you pick and how much on each? I'm not worried if it loses, but would love to hear your insight.Comment -
Well if you're just taking a shot I would bet $1,000 on 1 horse to win.If 1k is a bankroll you want to play with I wouldn't bet more than $10-$20 a play.
I like a crazy horse today in the Whitney at Saratoga,8-Fast Falcon is 15-1 and the pace could meltdown with all the speed.He likes Saratoga ,is on an upward progression, and like the outside post.
I don't get Del Mar, none of the horses that are winning make sense to me.Has been totally unpredictable imo but 4-Apollo Ten 12-1 in the 3rd is the horse I'd pick today.Comment -
Do you usually take the horses to win? Or to show? I'm guessing to win.....
I've been just betting more than I normally would for rolloffs, so I've been putting to show, but not sure if I should just bet them straight.
Also... You like anything else on the Del Mar track today?Comment -
Meh ....not my dayComment -
Wasn't a planned break...Went camping with family for a few days
Don't have time to do thorough write up but this is what I got
Wednesday
Saratoga
Race 1
If there is a time to play against Pletcher firsters ,it is on the turf.He still wins but not nearly enough to justify the low prices his horses go off at most of the time based mostly on his first time stats acquired by his dominant dirt 2 year olds.6-Little Boss 6-1 is the most interesting at the price to me , his sire Street Boss is off to a great start through two crops with 1st time starters.
6-Litttle Boss
3-More Than Classic
7-War Hawk
Race 2
Race might not offer much value but looks like a good battle between the 3 ML favorites.4-Marriedtothemusic looks to have a pretty big edge in early speed which the fave 1-Bond Vigilante may have a tough time keeping up with.That seems to set the table for 3rd choice 3-Longfor The City 3-1 who will sit a few lengths back and pounce.Also looks ready for a big effort 3rd from layoff which C Clement excels at.
3-Longfor The City
4-Marriedtothemusic
1-Bond Vigilante
Race 3
9-Sarah's Wild Girl 10-1
2-Light Weight 12-1
Add a logical horse for 3 horse ex
Race 4
1-Mighty Ian 4-1
7-Drum Roll 6-1
Either Bemata or Vee's Accolade
Race 5
Don't think there is any way 3-Orino goes off at 12-1, maybe half that, but if he does is a nice play.West Hills Giant is too good for these NY breds and is borderline open company stakes caliber.6-Sun Storm 20-1 blew up the tote in his only start and could do it again if he likes turf.Last 4-Madam I'm Adam 8-1 looks ripe for another improvement routing for the first time.
2-West Hills Giant
3-Orino(Depending on price)
4-Madam I'm Adam
6-Sun Storm
Race 6
Good race to go against the 2 favorites
8-Pan Dulce 5-1
9-Hidden Music 15-1
Race 7
Faves look legit here in 1-Roses For Romney and 9-Temper In Command.2-Caribean Beat's 12-1 ml is too high imo.Her last race is just short of the best in here and it picked up right where she left off in 2012 which is a good sign.
9-Temper In Command
2-Caribean Beat
1-Roses For Romney
Race 8
Could go a number of ways on top but 5-Terminus 12-1 is the overlay for underneath.
5-Terminus
Race 9
Don't know if I will get the 6-1 on 6-Palace but would take 3-1 at the least.
6-Palace
Race 10
3-Code Z 8-1 wins this with any of his three 2012 efforts.Bombs worth looking at underneath are the 0 for 20 5-Proffesor Chaos 12-1 who will probably be much higher and 6-Sunnyinseabrook 15-1.I'm sure the Maker/Ramsey horse is better than it looks on paper but don't know how you take a short price just guessing he improves.
3-Code Z
5-Proffesor Chaos
6-SunnyinseabrookComment -
Thanks for taking the time to post. Good luck. I'll be following along.Comment -
Good call on the #3 race 5 from Toga. Went off at 12/1 and wired the field but they took the 3 down. The #2 wins.Comment -
You did a nice job with race 6 as well. very impressive day.Comment -
Professor Chaos breaks maiden in 21st start but got surprisingly got bet.Couldn't hook him up with anyone in the place spot thoughComment -
Mike that 5 we liked terminus killed me ....I hit the pick 4 ..I keyed console in the 9th. But I used your 5 in the last......I put the 3 in terminus race as a back up ...it would of paid ....8000 instead of 1800 if terminus wins ...which he should of .considering .all the bumping he had to deal with ....anyway ..thanks.Comment -
Was wondering what Professor Chaos looked like in the double/Pick 3/Pick 4 pools because I guess it wasn't the good find I thought it was.Got hammered in all the vertical pools.Comment -
anything sticks out to you at Saratoga mike?Comment -
Not really.I thought Ascending Fever was very interesting in the finale at 20-1 but scratched.Other than that didn't have too many out of the box horses.
Thursday
Saratoga
Don't know what to make of race 1
Race 2
Will watch the board for key horse as no concrete opinion but price horses are 3-Chrysolite 8-1 and 8-Gentle Cat 15-1(SCRATCHED).
Race 3
Don't see many ways to go here with the 3 horses that are likely to take money 1,2,4 Pletcher,Lopresti,Romans hard to beat on their own.Maybe 3-Speightscity 8-1 is playable at the lowest class level of career.
Race 4
Probably a popular opinion but think it's between 6-Stick To Your Guns and and 2-Rain Forest.
Race 5
No inside info here to go against likely faves
Race 6
This is where the card gets good from here out but hard to choose from about 5 or 6 playable horses at 5 or 6 to 1.Will have to see how they bet it but like 2-Kanturk Kid 6-1 and he might get overlooked for K O'Connell because she isn't really entered in NY often.This one rallied strong into a slow pace last out despite breaking through the gate pre race.Next would be 7-More Hundred Acre 5-1 who did the same(rally into slow pace) but goes for Pletcher/Castellano so will probably take money.5-Prado Cat is an easy horse to like making his first start since a G2 in May.He is the best key horse imo because of his style is most likely of these to hit the board.Yo Blue has the best figures but these are way better horses than he earned .It is Maker 1st off the claim though.
Race 7
Might be more of a hunch but liking 3-Dear Elizabeth 15-1.Has races that are competitive if coming back in same form as when she left in Nov 2012.Baker is outstanding with this kind of lay off so it's not a stretch.
Race 8
6-Golden Galaxy 5-1 is probably the best option but 10-Newbie 10-1 is interesting cutting back even if she hasn't won in a long time.
Race 9
3-Palace Dreams and 2-Adriatic Dream look like the main contenders but think 6-Fantastic Eyes 12-1 and 4-Maxana 30-1 are worth a look at least underneath.
Race 10
Don't like the favorites so will go 4 or 5 deep.Think the most logical are 5-Yampa River 6-1 and 7-Alwaysinmycircle 8-1 but both figure to be up close if not on the pace.The most interesting in the race imo is 10-Ascended Fever 20-1(SCRATCHED) who finally stretches out.The others I'm still debating are 3-Scealeile 8-1 and 4-Bonatini 8-1.Comment -
Del Mar race 1 #2 gets CNak on grass at a priceComment -
Good luck today Mike!! If Dear Elizabeth wins the 7th I will
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Thx...skipped the first half of the card .Katurk Kid won at 5-1 to start day and was claimed by D Jacobson.Dear Elizabeth ran very good all things considered.Didn't want to load so it took like 7-8 people to get her in the gate.Then had a rough first 1/16 of a mile and finished up OK to get 3rd and galloped out in front.Not the kind of horse for stable though.Think she was pretty cranked up to win and most likely goes backward next out.Comment -
Tomorrows card is tough...Races 4,5,6,7 all 2 year old maiden races with 75/80% firsters.Comment -
Saratoga
Balance the Books is entered to run on August 9, 2013, at SARATOGA race 8
Rover is entered on August 9, 2013 at SARATOGA. race 10
Zip Zip Away is entered on August 9, 2013 at EVANGELINE DOWNS. RACE 6
Guyana Star (AL) is entered on August 9, 2013 at SARATOGA RACE 1 WAS STRATCHED YESTERDAY
THE 1 ENTRY IS GOING TO BE TOUGH IN RACES 2 AND 3 .....I WOULD REFER TO MIKES PICKS ....HE WILL HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT IT THAN ME...Comment -
I liked Balance The Books a lot but all races are on dirt now so might just skip todayComment -
Friday
Saratoga
Race 1
Like Ascended Fever 12-1 here as well as the race she was entered in yesterday but now will have to wait again with races moved to the main track.10-Talent N Passion is a cinch at a very short price.Maybe a cold exacta with 2-Acrobatic Tactic 20-1 but think that one will get bet some.
Race 2
Today might be a chalky one with the 1/1A entry and 7-Start Jumping hard to beat and in all likelihood cap a very short 10/1,7 double.2-Like A Boss 12-1 is the value.
Race 3
More favorites
Race 4
Maybe the other Contessa here 7-Fancy Boss 6-1 will have some value.Abel Lezcano and Contessa are 4 for 9 ITM in maiden races.
Race 5
Probably a lot of scratches but MTO 11-Sky Crew 5-1 looks good .
Race 6
Going with a hunch since 15-1 makes it worth it on 6-Honor Bound.Englehart is good with 2 year olds and playing field may be a little more even with state breds.
Race 7
Hard to have an opinion without seeing who scratches
Race 8
6-Battier is the only dirt horse in the race.If he loses he should go back to rookie ball.
Race 9
8-Flashy American is in good form and was 5th of 6 behind a very slow pace last out.1-Sure Route 20-1 ran the best race of her 25 race career a few back in her only wet track start.
Race 10
Have to see what this race looks like after scratches but 2-Matt And Jesse's ML of 15-1 is not going to hold with the move to main track.Will probably be the favorite and the only one with comparable dirt form is 6-Verne 8-1.We''l see but they look like the 2 main players.Comment -
Thanks Mike. Lousy here in the NE so looking for anything to brighten this dismal day.Comment -
Hey Mikemca, we didn't do to good last week, but all good.
How is the card looking for this weekend?
I'm wagering another 1k and not worried about losing it except that I want to make a profit of course. What would you play?
Thanks
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