I was curious... I took to big faves to show. Paynter yesterday paid like $5 for betting $100. Is this actually right??? Sorry... I'm a noobie and don't know much about it. I was just shocked when I got $5 to every $100.
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Thank you Mike. Hit meeker for a few dollars w/p. Missed ex. You pay for zero if we ever meet.Comment -
Damn there is the patented Irad ride I always try to get bringing in bombs up the rail (R8) but its so hard to know which will run through down there and which will be skiddish.Comment -
Well not too good except for 1 OK race but that could have been a daymaker if the 1 got up for 2nd.With the prices I play I expect some cold spells.If my picks are filling out tris and supers then they are usually out running their odds and I'm content even in losing.When my picks are winning and filling out exactas I am on top of the world and putting those winnings away like an ant does with food for winter.It is going to be Winter at some point for everybody and there is no telling how long it will last so better be as stocked as possible.Comment -
Monday
Saratoga
Race 1
(The favorite 9-Madris 8-5 is legitimate as Mike Maker is awesome 1st after claim and just about everything else too.I'm going to play against for the facts that he claimed this one off S Margolis who is a fellow super trainer.Also this one is lacking early speed so is going to have to rally from far back into a moderate pace.Last I find it a little suspicious that he drops it in for 20k, if he had a good claim he would bring it back in a protected spot somewhere.He has stables all over KY beside NY)
6-Pyro City 5-1 (Looks to have a decent pace advantage along with a couple others so should see a clean trip.Making 3rd start of 2013 after progressing a little from 1st to 2nd start.Should set him up for a top effort.Those two starts were also pressing the pace on tiring Delaware turf and we already had one come up here and win after doing the same)
4-Life's A Roar 9-2 (Exactly the same scenario as top pick coming from DEL after setting the pace on turf but this is only 2nd start since 2012 for this one.Could go with either one)
8-Fluent 10-1 (This one ran a career best last out but has only ran 6 times.Was pretty slow before that however being bred by Giant's Causeway out of a Dynaformer mare there is a good chance he is just starting to progress and will fill out late 3 into 4 and 5 years old.If he improves off last race he can win)
2-Nelson Avenue 20-1 (Is my looooooong shot .Think he has a tiny chance to win but a decent chance to hang on for a piece.)
Race 2
6-Flores Island 3-1 (Don't see any longer prices and this one looks ready to break through)
Race 3
3-Political Storm 15-1 (Looks like just about the whole field wants the lead so this ones ability to at least pass horses is a big positive)
7-Wild One 10-1 (Looks like the fastest early and is bred to love the turf)
10-Fevered Kiss 8-1 (Like the post as that combined with Johnny V might get him to settle a bit)
Then pick a fave 4-6-5 is my order of preference
Race 4
Doesn't look good betting wise.I see 4-Cease chasing 3-Big Screen around the track with 1-Tech Fall closing but running out of room and 2-Don Dulce right behind him.
Race 5
7-Bold Forest 6-1 (Has ran his race every time on turf but once.Mediocre trainer adds to the price but versatility should work well in this field)
1-Cashleigh 8-1 (Will be closing after saving all the ground)
2-Majestic Jess 12-1 (just a hunch)
6-Ricochet Court 12-1 (Improving last couple and gets good turf rider in Rosie)
Race 6
8-Dark Roast 10-1 (Race 2 back was very good followed by a slight stretchout.Cut back to 5 1/2 might hit him right between eyes)
7-Iron Power 8-1 (Is bred to turf so may jump forward)
4-Deferred Asset 5-1 (Another closer so I'm hoping all the speed backs up)
2-Stoneless 12-1 (Is the fastest in here if only he could rate he would be on top)Comment -
Well said, in other words 'make it hard for them to get it back".
Back in the day folks would always say you're hot after hitting a few races why don't you double or triple up? because when I capped the race this morning it was worth $100 and it's still worth the same. Has nothing to do with how much you're ahead or behind.Comment -
Haven't had a chance to read through everything you wrote, but will check it out after I get out of work. Thanks for the write ups.Comment -
River boss race 5 SaratogaComment -
Thanks...Comment -
Ok time to incorporate some favorites into the mix after 7 of 10 rolled home Sunday including starting the card the first 3 races.One got Dq'ed and a 2nd choice winner was only a few cents from favortism that would have made it 8 of 10.
Saratoga
Race 1
Jacobson has almost half the field including the 2 strongest contenders 4-Sovereign Default 9-5 and his 1/1A entry 5-2 of which 1A-Irish Lion is the stronger half if he happens to scratch one.The other half is worth taking a shot against in the place spot but think its futile to try and beat the 4 on the win end and to a lesser degree the 1A.The 4 has a huge pace edge and should have total control of how the race is ran.I'll be passing but for the TRI and SUPER players 3-Matt And Jesse 15-1 and 7-Jet Set Cat 20-1 can outrun their odds
Race 2
More of the same with 2 standouts in 2-Hot Stones and 4-Gloria Victoria.This one starts a Pick 3 and Pick 4 so think if you're playing them you can feel safe going just 2 deep.
Race 3
Finally get to a competitive race but it looks very tough.The two faves 3-Caxambas Pass and 4-Neolexia are contenders but they are level with the whole field.Add to that they are lacking early speed and its hard to trust them but hard to leave them out.They will be running late but will they have too much to do?The most interesting horse is 7-Rare Penny 4-1 who goes for trainer Al Stall.A trainer who has to be among the top 3-5 in the country first time turf (30%)and turf to dirt(31%).Plus he has a positive ROI for $2 bets on all those starters.Throw up Rosie Napravnik and this might be the favorite down from 3rd choice on the ML.6-Perfect Package 6-1 is interesting because she looks like the only speed.I'm leaving out the others but they wouldn't be a surprise.I think the way to play it is to hope Perfect Package can hold on just enough to add value to the exotics with a small chance she keeps going after some crazy :52 half.
Race 4
Like this race the most on the card even if 5f turf sprints are chaos.The 1-Margaret Lilian 6-1 has a big shot imo 2nd start off layoff.Also the only other time she went from a 6f turf sprint on the Belmont inner to a 5 1/2 turf sprint at the Spa she whistled running the best sprint of her career.On the fence between her and 4-Rakin' Gold 12-1 who goes 3rd off the layoff after wiring an allowance field at Belmont.The problem is that there is a lot of speed in here and its hard to make a case for any off the pace horse aside from the fave 2-Thescreenisred.That one goes for Chad Brown who cranks them up better than anyone to come out with a top effort after 180 days off.The other one is 3-Lisini 6-1 but she looks to me like 6f is her sweet spot and may like 7f better.They drop her back to 5 1/2 where it seems she doesn't get up to top speed until the race is over.Perfect scenario is 1 and 4 emerging from the bunch of pace setters and battling into the stretch where R Maragh comes out to herd the charging fave 2 which slows both them a tad and the 4 gets there first with 1,2,3 close behind.
Race 5
A 8 horse MSW filled with 1sters and 2 that have ran.Of the two that ran I prefer 1-Kelly's Prize 15-1 who is going moving to dirt after making career debut on turf.She looks bred to turf but think she will show more early speed on dirt.The big problem is the rail draw.The obvious firster is 4-Kicken Livi 7-2 who goes out for new trainer Michael Dilger.You might get some prices on his horses before the public actually finds out who he is.If I were primarily looking for a w/p bet among the firsters it would be 6-Molly Jordan 8-1 who is the best price and sire is having a good start to stud career.Finally think you have to throw in 5-Lavender Road who just looks fast.
Race 6
I can make a case for every horse in this field so I'll let the favorites beat me on the win end .Exotics are going to be difficult without using the whole field so I think you have to pick your favorite or two and stick with them in the win spot.Naturally because its a marathon race there are some serious closers in the field but hardly any speed.5-Star Channel 10-1 looks like the pace setter but he has never been this far so its a guessing game if he has anythinng left come crunch time.I'm guessing no.Right behind him is the 8-Royal Bench 12-1 and he goes for T Voss who is a turf/marathon/jumps expert.This horse was running against the best horses in the world in 2011 over in Dubai and Europe so the back class is there.My top choice if he stays at the ML is 10-Harrods Creek 6-1 ,he won this race last year , he is making his 3rd start of the year, and he drops out of the GI United Nations.Also think 9-Dannhauser 15-1 is an overlay as he was a well meant horse having started his career with C Clement.If he was his trainer in this spot the horse would be 3-1 and vying for favortism.I know I ignored the top 3 but if the field is as even as it looks on paper imo you have to go with the longer odds.
Race 7
Almost identical to race 5 but that msw is for state breds and this is open company.Running out of time
3-Prove It All Night 10-1
1-Dancing House 3-1
5-Reversiontothemean 6-1
6-Ocean Boulevard 7-2
Race 8
2-Orion Moon 2-1 looks very tough but maybe we can beat the 2nd and 3rd choices.
2-Orion Moon 2-1
1-Mariel N Kathy 6-1
4-Stanwyck 12-1
5-Tabreed 5-1
Race 9
High quality race with some future stars including 8-Assured 8-5 who is very very scary if she improves the further she goes.Again since I'm using the fave I'll try to get past the 2nd and 3rd choices.Sister State might be a little worn out after pressing the pace in the Mother Goose and Finesse might be in too deep too soon.
8-Assured 8-5
1-Galloping Giraffe 6-1
6-Lady Kierkegaard 10-1
9-Swakopmund 15-1
Race 10
4-Krissy Kat 12-1 is a strong play.Comment -
Krissy Kat was my best bet of the day too. Unfortunately she's scratched.Comment -
VetComment -
Thanks again Mike!
Thescreenisred was blocked and closed. Very live but odds on soo...Comment -
Eww....Wasn't even in the same universe race 4....I'll let Cohen beat me on turf though.Don't know how he still gets mounts on turf.Comment -
Hey, mike just had a chance to read through your write ups. Interesting stuff. Thanks for taking the time. Please keep it up, I for one, really appreciate the time and effort you put in. Thanks, again.Comment -
Just throwing out some value today for EX,TRI,SUPER.
Saratoga
Race 3
4-Takajo 12-1
Race 4
6-Mr. G. Zee 12-1
Race 5
7-Horse Latitudes 12-1
Race 6
4-Mine Over Matter 8-1
Race 7
8-Gamblin Fever 15-1
Race 8
5-Demon's Deputy 30-1
11-De Price 20-1
Race 9
2-Malibu Holiday 15-1
Race 10
4-Midnightinpositano 15-1
Race 11
7-Sustainable Forest 15-1Comment -
I went to Del Mar today, was so tired left after 2nd race, and thats the first time inside.Comment -
any picks today MikeComment -
Saratoga
Race 1
2-Frisky Cat 10-1 (Sprint to Route for 2nd start off 180+ layoff after losing all chance blowing the start but did some running late even though had no chance at winners)
4-Kiss Of Thunder 5-2 (These connections Rosario/Maker/Ramsey are just too hard to beat at the claiming level.Owner Ramsey literally wants to win every single time to beat Repole and this one shows up taking a huge drop out of allowance company with a couple bullet workouts)
6-Chilton 6-1 (Followed 6 routes that might win this by 4 lesser sprints.Move back to route could wake him up)
Race 2
1-Blue Collar Cat 7-2 (Horses with experience have a huge advantage and this one is the lone horse with a previous race)
Watch the board for place and show horse.Money has been fairly sharp in these 2 year old debuts.
Race 3
7-Notesfromabroad 5-1 (Just about every dirt sprint she has ,aside from the last one where she reared up at the start , would have a very good chance at getting to the wire first but she is only co-4th choice.Excellent bet at the ML)
1-Bird House 5-1 (The 2 fourth choices look best to me.This one romped at this level and then tried tougher 4 times.Now drops back to winning level,goes turf to dirt which Gullo excels at,and adds blinkers to try and help with her lack of early speed to get involved earlier)
6-Sweet Maxine 10-1 (Always hard to judge these out of town shippers from the B tracks but when its a pretty good trainer who rarely does it, you can usually bank that the horse is on its toes)
Race 4
2-Rosalie's Pleasure 6-1 (I should start by saying the 5 has best last race and good pattern but as I said before I let D Cohen beat me.Maybe if it was 30-1 I'll throw him underneath.As for this horse chances, it all comes down to how she acts before the race and in the gate.She has had problems both races and still ran competitive enough to compete with these.If she doesn't have any gate tantrums she has a big shot)
1-Pie's First Lady 7-2 (Is knocking on the door ready to break maiden.Just has to find the right field which might be this one)
3-Scribbling Sarah 3-1 (Another who is right there and may have more to finish on the small turn back)
Race 5
2-Glenwood Pines 5-1 (Drops out of 2 MSW into a pretty slow 60k maiden claimer.Rallied wide in both previous races which had slow paces)
5-Saratoga Sunrise 20-1 (With no fast horses in here it wouldn't take much talent from this one to run by them all first time out)
8-Saturday Nthe Park 3-1 (Maker/Ramsey but Alan Garcia rides and he does just fine.Maker good in almost all angles and this one gets first try on turf.
4-Acquisition 12-1 (Worth including an extra one here with the vulnerable looking favorite.This one take a class jump after progressing a little at Calder.Second start in blinkers)The safer play would be 6-Giant's Jewel here.
Risky 2,5,8,4 /Safe 2,5,8,6
Race 6
1-Madame Giry 9-2 (Was on the verge of becoming the best turf sprinter in the US last year but her progression seemed to stall at the last race #.She is ultra consistent having run almost the same race 8 times in a row regardless of pace which shows her versatility)
6-Rosa Salvaje 8-1 (Won this race last year coming from a similar lay off)
4-Spun Cap 7-2 (Hard to separate any of these horses.Just hoping the Romans horse doesn't take to the turf and the fave is too far out of it and these 4 are battling)
5-Double The Energy 6-1 (Almost all the runners in here could be 3-1 to 5-1.If this one can repeat her best race despite few months off there is a good chance she will be right there)
Race 7
Don't know what to make of Italian Rules.It is almost too obvious they are trying to give him away.
2-Island Sunset 6-1 (Big Drop...Turf to dirt)
1-Take Two Down 3-1 (Most consistent in here ..last 10 races within 5 points of each other...Servis 1st claim 30%+)
3-Buckeye Heart 20-1 (Better than 20-1...Can close strong and get ITM)
6-PJs Magical Wink 7-2 (Jacobson 1st claim 25%)
Race 8
If anyone can break up the chalk exacta it's 4-Livingston Street 10-1.Otherwise its 1/1A-Maker/Ramsey Entry and 5-Presumptive.
Race 9
1-Mel's Dream 15-1 (Ran OK compared to field last start which was first on turf.Some runners improve dramatically 2nd time turf)
3-Dapper Draper 5-2
2-Make A Dream 10-1
10-Saguaro Blossom 12-1
7-Southern Safari 12-1
Hoping one scratches but these MDC finales light up the board a lot so thinking pick one short price and box it with bombs or just disregard short price all together.
Del Mar
Race 1
4-Boston Charley 6-1
3-Unusual Don 5-2
1-Storm Reveler 6-1
Race 2
6-Beautiful Strike 3-1
Race 3
3-Tiz A Funtime 6-1
Race 4
8-Samurai Jess 8-1
Race 5
1-Street Car 5-1(BEST)
Race 6
7-Tiz A Classy Lass 6-1
Race 7
6-Raised A Secret 4-1
Race 8
12-Advisory 8-1
7-Hard Play 7-2Comment -
Mike for Saratoga we agree on race 1. think the 3 in race 8 is interestingComment -
Nice capping in the 5th Mike. I just couldn't figure out how to put it together.Comment -
Ouch. .10 super $90.Comment -
Thanks just capped the R7 $1,257 Super cold......Comment -
Only had the $53 exacta though for a few xs so the 3 at 22-1 missing 2nd by a nose hurt badComment -
nice superComment -
Race 5
EX - $57
TRI - $250.50
SUPER - $1,815
Race 7
Came 2-1-3-6(3 was 1/100 of a step from 2nd)
EX - $53
TRI - $327
SUPER - $1,257Comment -
This is why 95% of the time I'm a w/p and exacta bettor.I can box the exacta without it getting out of control moneywise and hit consistently enough were I don't have to endure the never ending dry spells.Occasionally will mess around with the horizontals but for the most part I try to keep to figuring the winner and place horse.Although wishing I was a TRI and SUPER player today.Comment
