Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

[Draynay]

Yes the plan worked so wel for kristo !!!

Kristo had a bullet work at SA and then flew out to New York and ran in the Wood. Things went so well for Kristo in the Wood that the trainer for California Chrome thought it would be a good idea to work at SA until Tuesday before the Derby. Why workout at the track your about to run your most important race of your life at? Makes perfect sense and it worked so well for Kristo what could go wrong ?

[BGboothA]

People don't take into account the different tracks enough in handicapping. The evidence is there with Kristo. Now, that being said, it wouldn't surprise me in CC is better than the disadvantage this gives him, but why give you horse any sort of disadvantage.

[harthebar]

KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN
ALL IN BETTINGKENTUCKY DEBY - ODDS TO WIN -
Apr 12KENTUCKY DERBY - ODDS TO WIN
NO REFUNDS ON NON STARTERS




Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80502KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBAYERN+1200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80503KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBOBBYS KITTEN+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80504KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCAIRO PRINCE+1400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80505KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCALIFORNIA CHROME+250
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80506KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCANDY BOY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80507KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCHITU+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80508KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCONSTITUTION+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80509KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGGENERAL A ROD+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80510KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGHOPPERTUNITY+1300
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80511KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGIN TROUBLE+7200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80512KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGINTENSE HOLIDAY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80513KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGMIDNIGHT HAWK+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80514KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRIDE ON CURLIN+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80515KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRING WEEKEND+5400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80516KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSAMRAAT+2700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80517KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSOCIAL INCLUSION+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80518KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSTRONG MANDATE+3700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80519KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGTAPITURE+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80520KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGUNCLE SIGH+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80521KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGVICARS IN TROUBLE+2800
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80522KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWE MISS ARTIE+3200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80523KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWILDCAT RED+3500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80524KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGALL OTHER 3 YEAR OLDS+500

[cbiscuit]

actually past 10 years or so the only horses that really get severly overbet are the longshots..which are horrible value derby day on the parimutual pools....check the exchange prices to see what I mean derby day! its quite eye opening.....

.you get a fair price (not saying an overlay as there is that nasty track takout to contend with , but top choices are not overbet at the Derby past 10 years or so..) .. You have a solid shot at seeing 3-1 on Chrome Derby Day..

Longest shots are never at their true value, they're all clumped in at 25-1 in recent years it seems. Even MTBird should have went off at more than 50-1 imho. All that said I allowed myself to place my first Derby future in years as I've always said that Derby future bets were not worthwhile but that has changed now. Had a few $$ left in one acct and put it on a 33-1 shot. If he makes it to post Im guessing he'll be 20-1ish but should be more.
If you're hot and heavy on CalChrom think you will get at least 3-1 on him on Derby day.
Is Constitiution this years Revolutionary?

[mikemca]

KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN
ALL IN BETTINGKENTUCKY DEBY - ODDS TO WIN -
Apr 12KENTUCKY DERBY - ODDS TO WIN
NO REFUNDS ON NON STARTERS




Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80502KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBAYERN+1200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80503KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGBOBBYS KITTEN+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80504KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCAIRO PRINCE+1400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80505KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCALIFORNIA CHROME+250
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80506KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCANDY BOY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80507KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCHITU+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80508KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGCONSTITUTION+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80509KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGGENERAL A ROD+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80510KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGHOPPERTUNITY+1300
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80511KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGIN TROUBLE+7200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80512KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGINTENSE HOLIDAY+2500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80513KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGMIDNIGHT HAWK+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80514KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRIDE ON CURLIN+4000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80515KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGRING WEEKEND+5400
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80516KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSAMRAAT+2700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80517KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSOCIAL INCLUSION+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80518KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGSTRONG MANDATE+3700
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80519KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGTAPITURE+1000
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80520KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGUNCLE SIGH+5500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80521KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGVICARS IN TROUBLE+2800
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80522KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWE MISS ARTIE+3200
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80523KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGWILDCAT RED+3500
Apr 12 - 12:00 PM80524KENTUCKY DERBY TO WIN - ALL IN BETTINGALL OTHER 3 YEAR OLDS+500

I guess if I had to pick 1 it'd be Vicars In Trouble at 28-1.Think Hoppertunity will be right around 12 or 15-1 so no value there but Vicars In Trouble could be around the same so he seems like the best value there.Just about everyone else is too low.

[harthebar]

mike, i have been hearing a ton of chatter about social inclusion, but he can only run one way fast , to lead, calif. chrome is all by himself at 2 1/2 to -1 i dont get that....

[Draynay]

You have to hate money !

To bet on CC in the Derby The horse has been racing against Maidens and a few with 1 win in 4 horse fields..... CC has no business being a Derby favorite...... none....

[mikemca]

Going to be tough for me to like him in Kentucky Derby but Danza ran HUGE.Time-wise would have been neck and neck with Will Take Charge a race earlier.

[harthebar]

he did dint he, he is lightly raced, will he enter, and do you think bravo will stay on him......to me he looked like he didnt even get into the horse till they made the turn.....and he just took off with ease, ,,like he could have kept going.....if he does run, you will get a good price, people will think it was a fluke, at 40-1 .. the public does....and maybe it was....

[harthebar]

1	California Chrome	Art Sherman	150	$782,250
2	Vicar's in Trouble	Mike Maker	120	$760,000
3	Dance With Fate	Peter Eurton	108	$600,000
4	Wicked Strong	Jimmy Jerkens	102	$640,000
5	Samraat	Rick Violette Jr.	100	$650,000
6	Danza	Todd Pletcher	100	$620,000
7	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	100	$600,000
8	Hoppertunity	Bob Baffert	95	$576,000
9	Intense Holiday	Todd Pletcher	93	$527,500
10	Wildcat Red	Jose Garrofalo	90	$665,500
11	We Miss Artie	Todd Pletcher	60	$544,000
12	Ride on Curlin	Billy Gowan	55	$354,387
13	Chitu	Bob Baffert	54	$440,000
14	Tapiture	Steve Asmussen	52	$470,378
15	Midnight Hawk	Bob Baffert	52	$320,500
16	Ring Weekend	H. Graham Motion	50	$260,000
17	General a Rod	Mike Maker	40	$240,000
18	Medal Count	Dale Romans	40	$226,500
19	Candy Boy	John Sadler	30	$380,000
20	Cairo Prince	Kiaran McLaughlin	24	$520,000
21	Uncle Sigh	Gary Contessa	24	$180,000
22	Vinceremos	Todd Pletcher	20	$191,666
23	Harry's Holiday	Mike Maker	20	$152,622
24	Commanding Curve	Dallas Stewart	20	$140,000
25	Pablo Del Monte	Wesley Ward	20	$102,000
26	Bayern	Bob Baffert	20	$100,000
27	Social Inclusion	Manny Azpurua	20	$100,000

[BGboothA]

To bet on CC in the Derby The horse has been racing against Maidens and a few with 1 win in 4 horse fields..... CC has no business being a Derby favorite...... none....

OK, I completely get trying to take a shot against the favorite in a 20 horse field, and I get the reasons why you don't like CC. But he is the only Derby contender to run consistantly well in the last few months. Who else "has business being the Derby favorite?"

[harthebar]

california chrome

Track	Date	Race	Race Type	Finish	Chart	Video
Santa Anita	4/5/2014	8	Santa Anita Derby - Gr. 1	1
Santa Anita	3/8/2014	5	San Felipe Stakes - Gr. 2	1
Santa Anita	1/25/2014	10	California Cup Derby	1
Betfair Hollywood Park	12/22/2013	10	King Glorious Stakes	1
Santa Anita	11/1/2013	3	Golden State Juvenile Stakes	6
Del Mar	9/4/2013	8	Del Mar Futurity - Gr. 1	6
Del Mar	7/31/2013	7	Graduation Stakes	1
Betfair Hollywood Park	6/15/2013	8	Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes	5
Betfair Hollywood Park	5/17/2013	8	Maiden Special Weight	1
Betfair Hollywood Park	4/26/2013	2	Maiden Special Weight	2

[harthebar]

if you dont like c c how can you like Hoppertunity, can the track make that much of the difference.....for those two


i just dont think that much of the horses he beat on, the best is Hoppertunity and krsito

[Draynay]

He Beat up on Nothing.

California Chrome is no threat to win the Derby. He hasn't seen real horses yet....

[BigdaddyQH]

Draynay, how much money did you lose wagering against California chrome? You are just like a little girl who lost her doll. Just who do you think is going to win the Derby? Enough mouthing off about who you think will lose. If you knew anything about the Derby (and it is obvious that you do not), then you would know that other than illness or injury, which cannot be predicted, or the weather, which can change there at a moments notice, the most important thing about the Derby is the Post Draw. Draw #1 and you are in major trouble. #2 is not exactly great either. Post position can dictate what each of the horses who decide to run must do at the start. If Chrome is 5/2 before the Post Draw, and Draws PP 1, he goes up to 4/1 or greater.

[dballard125]

Been lurking here for a while, but I had to sign up to respond to this. WTF is your problem? How about having a civil discussion, instead of acting like a holier-than-thou douchebag? Everyone in this thread is simply giving an opinion, and doing it respectfully. Then you jump in and completely hijack the thread with this crap? You don't like California Chrome. Great. How about explaining why, without disrespecting others opinions, and using those gay ass emoticons?

The way CC won ? You mean by running in races lacking and true speed horses ? In the mighty SA Derby he stalked a Maiden that has never come close to winning a race. You like the way he beat a Maiden ? It's the way he did it ? Constitution ran down the Hutcheson and FOY winner when no one else was able to.... he beat Cairo Prince and a few weeks earlier put away Wicked Strong by more than 6 lengths..... but...... you like the way CC beat a Maiden........ makes perfect sense.......

[TonyP]

Going to be tough for me to like him in Kentucky Derby but Danza ran HUGE.Time-wise would have been neck and neck with Will Take Charge a race earlier.

is this almost the same as Bodemeister

[nvrlose37]

Going to be tough for me to like him in Kentucky Derby but Danza ran HUGE.Time-wise would have been neck and neck with Will Take Charge a race earlier.

That hag will not run a race like that again. He will need everything going for him, along with that beautiful rail trip to even sniff the money.

[mikemca]

is this almost the same as Bodemeister

Nah Bode was a speedball, this guy can seemingly sit in the pocket until the stretch and explode.

That hag will not run a race like that again. He will need everything going for him, along with that beautiful rail trip to even sniff the money.

I agree.The same can be said for a few others too though.

[Draynay]

Bigdaddy let me tell you what I know..... CC has not seen any quality horses. The racing in California is a complete JOKE this year. Proof of how bad it is .... Bayern beat California WINNERS by 15. Then faced a B quality horse from Florida and got whipped. What more do you need ? Did you see the horses CC was stalking in California Stakes races ? HORRIBLE. A Florida horse that couldn't win a OC75k in Florida goes and wins the Arkansas Derby. A horse that got beat by 6+ lengths by Constitution in Florida goes to NY and wins going away. Florida is loaded with talent... Constitution, Wildcat Red, Cairo Prince and General A Rod.... should I go on ???

[harthebar]

One of trainer Todd Pletcher's handful of anticipated Triple Crown hopefuls is off the Kentucky Derby trail.
Constitution, winner of last month's Grade I Florida Derby, sustained a hairline fracture in his right-front cannon bone, an injury discovered Monday after the undefeated son of Tapit breezed a half mile in :50 3/5 on Sunday at Palm Meadows' training track in Florida.
"This is one of the biggest disappointments of my career," Pletcher said in a news release. "I really feel Constitution was our biggest chance to win the Kentucky Derby since Super Saver. My routine with all my horses is to jog them down the road, and I noticed he was slightly off (Monday).
RELATED: Wildcat Red gets new jockey for Derby
"(A doctor) took X-rays that revealed a slight hairline in his shin. Thankfully, it's nothing very serious, and Constitution will be back to 100 (percent) after a little time. The timing is just a real shame for everyone involved, but the Derby doesn't define a horse's career."
Constitution's defection likely opens a Derby spot for Uncle Sigh, who last ran fifth in the Wood Memorial and was 21st in the Derby points standings. Uncle Sigh also ran second at the Grade III Withers and Gotham Stakes, with all his starts at Aqueduct.
Pletcher is also expected to enter Danza, We Miss Artie and Intense Holiday in the May 3 Derby. Vinceremos sits 22nd in the points standings. A maximum of 20 horses can run in the Derby.
Constitution, owned by WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, will ship back to Kentucky to rehabilitate. There's hope he could return to training in 60 days and return to racing this year.
"While we are extremely disappointed to miss the Kentucky Derby, we're just as excited about the future of Constitution," said Randy Gullatt, Twin Creeks Racing's general manager, in a news release. "We think he's just scratching the surface of his talent."
Out of Distorted Humor mare Baffled, Constitution ranked seventh in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings. He has career earnings of $649,350, also with victories in maiden special weight and allowance optional claiming races at Gulfstream Park.

[Draynay]

The Derby is Cairo Prince vs. Wildcat Red.... the rest are there to watch it.

[BGboothA]

Wow, I tossed both of those out of first. I think either could get up or stay up for 3rd, but I dno't see how either of those two find the winners circle.

WildCat got a great trip and loss to Constitution, Cairo was a no show last time out. Its a 20 horse field, the odds of WildCat getting another perfect trip, and holding on to the lead with mroe distance seems all but unlikely

[Draynay]

Wow, I tossed both of those out of first. I think either could get up or stay up for 3rd, but I dno't see how either of those two find the winners circle.

WildCat got a great trip and loss to Constitution, Cairo was a no show last time out. Its a 20 horse field, the odds of WildCat getting another perfect trip, and holding on to the lead with mroe distance seems all but unlikely

With Constitution out no horse going into the Derby has passed Wildcat Red and considering it took an all out effort from a horse Pletcher called one of the best 3 year old horses he has ever had .... good luck passing him. Cairo Prince was in the Florida Derby for a workout and lost by just 3 lengths. He has won everything else on 3 different tracks and has one of the best trainers in the world. Good luck beating Cairo on Derby Day. Maybe you need to watch his Holy Bull again.....

[Heppy10]

When do the pps come out for the KD?

[BGboothA]

With Constitution out no horse going into the Derby has passed Wildcat Red and considering it took an all out effort from a horse Pletcher called one of the best 3 year old horses he has ever had .... good luck passing him. Cairo Prince was in the Florida Derby for a workout and lost by just 3 lengths. He has won everything else on 3 different tracks and has one of the best trainers in the world. Good luck beating Cairo on Derby Day. Maybe you need to watch his Holy Bull again.....

I think you may be forgetting about General A Rod who did in fact pass WildCat Red. I am also looking at the pedigree and WildCat REd handling the Derby distance.

As far as watching to Holy Bull again, yeah it was amazing. But his Florida Derby was equally impressive in the other direction.

[BGboothA]

When do the pps come out for the KD?

Here are the early version. Obviously there is still stuff to come (post draw, Midnight Hawk running this weekend)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/56327515/dby0503y.pdf

[Draynay]

Huh ?

Cairo Prince loses to the best two 3 year old horses running by a couple of lengths after a 9 week layoff and he is suddenly not good enough ? You can't be serious. There is nothing wrong with his Florida Derby and he is set up nicely to run away with the Derby. Keep him off your ticket and let me know how that works for you.

[Heppy10]

Here are the early version. Obviously there is still stuff to come (post draw, Midnight Hawk running this weekend)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...5/dby0503y.pdf

Awesome thanx man, who you liking so far?

[Draynay]

When you look at the PP's ....

2 things jump right out at you..... Wildcat red is inches from being undefeated and Cairo is a monster. It is going to be very very hard to get by Wildcat Red the first Saturday in May.... the Florida horses clearly stand out for sure.

Cairo for the win.....

[mikemca]

I think Cairo Prince is interesting too but in the future see him being a Grade 1 miler, maybe 9 panels on a speed favoring track like the spa or monmouth which puts the Haskell in play.

Kentucky Derby

Cairo Prince o/u 4th
Wildcat Red o/u 8th

[TonyP]

I think Cairo Prince is interesting too but in the future see him being a Grade 1 miler, maybe 9 panels on a speed favoring track like the spa or monmouth which puts the Haskell in play.

Kentucky Derby

Cairo Prince o/u 4th
Wildcat Red o/u 8th

give me cairo prince to finish worse then 4th

[TonyP]

give me cairo prince to finish worse then 4th

will use him in a few supers though

[Draynay]

Not even possible.....

I think Cairo Prince is interesting too but in the future see him being a Grade 1 miler, maybe 9 panels on a speed favoring track like the spa or monmouth which puts the Haskell in play.

Kentucky Derby

Cairo Prince o/u 4th
Wildcat Red o/u 8th

Wildcat Red who no one has been able to get by except one horse not in the race and who would be favored to win if the race was a mile is going to suddenly spit the bit with the lead at the top of the stretch and let 7 horses go by him...... you have to be kidding. Cairo Prince has done nothing but win and facing 3 of the best in the Florida Derby and him finishing right behind them after a 9 week layoff sets him up perfectly for the Derby. He is the only horse in the race that has been really good at 2 and 3. If you think there are 3 horses better than him.... where have they been hiding for 2 years ?

[BGboothA]

If you think there are 3 horses better than him.... where have they been hiding for 2 years ?

1. Samraat
2. California Chrome
3. Hoppertunity/Tapiture
4. General A Rod (at this distance)
5. Intense Holiday

Will all be on my ticket before WildCat Red. And don' get me wrong, I think WildCat red is going to own a mile the rest of the year, but the Derby distance....I just don' think he handles the distance or the pace that I think he will be facing.