Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks

[harthebar]

NOW THAT A LOT OF THE RACES ARE OUT OF THE WAY, EVERYTHING IS STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ,WE SHOULD START TO SEE THINGS AS THEY ARE , LETS HERE THEM, YESTERDAY MIKE PICKED BOTH WINNERS NEW YORK WICKED STRONG AND CALIF. THE CHROME..... PERFECTION, GREAT CALL MIKE WICKED STRONG WAS NICE.........AND HE WAS ON THAT HORSE FOR A WHILE HE SAW IT COMING....... THERE ARE STILL SOME RACES TO GO, THE DERBY IS IN 4 WEEKS LETS PREDICT

[mikemca]

Crazy predictions

1)Hoppertunity breaks the curse of Apollo by 1/2 length over Wicked Strong
2)Social Inclusion whistles in the Preakness
3)Noble Moon surprises in the Belmont at boxcars

[harthebar]

WELL YOU ARE THE MAN IS THERE A HORSE OUT THERE WHO STILL NEEDS A RACE , THAT HAS SOME POTENTIAL ...IF SO WHO....I JUST DONT FEEL THIS YEAR DERBY....

Crazy predictions

1)Hoppertunity breaks the curse of Apollo by 1/2 length over Wicked Strong
2)Social Inclusion whistles in the Preakness
3)Noble Moon surprises in the Belmont at boxcars

[mikemca]

Nah...think all the serious contenders ran already.Some people seem to like Bayern who runs in the Ark Derby and Bobby's Kitten who is the likely favorite in the Blue Grass but I don't get them.

[harthebar]

hey mike i notice all those 1st and 2nd place poker places in your box, thats real good, are you going to play at the borgata poker 4-8 it starts

Nah...think all the serious contenders ran already.Some people seem to like Bayern who runs in the Ark Derby and Bobby's Kitten who is the likely favorite in the Blue Grass but I don't get them.

[BGboothA]

Nah...think all the serious contenders ran already.Some people seem to like Bayern who runs in the Ark Derby and Bobby's Kitten who is the likely favorite in the Blue Grass but I don't get them.

Tapiture still has me thinking. That horse should be coming off three solid wins over good company, if it wasn't for the trip in the Rebel.

Constitution could be the real deal as I don't think he has peaked and he could peak in early May.

Samraat is the real deal he may not win, but I like him to hit the board at the very least.

Bobby's Kitten in the Blue Grass is going to have some interest. He should do well on the Keeneland surface, and if he gets a gate in Kentucky, he could surprise. I know the turf to dirt isn't a strong angle, but a talented proven horse in a field of 20....I amy have to take a look at that.

[mikemca]

Tapiture still has me thinking. That horse should be coming off three solid wins over good company, if it wasn't for the trip in the Rebel.

Constitution could be the real deal as I don't think he has peaked and he could peak in early May.

Samraat is the real deal he may not win, but I like him to hit the board at the very least.

Bobby's Kitten in the Blue Grass is going to have some interest. He should do well on the Keeneland surface, and if he gets a gate in Kentucky, he could surprise. I know the turf to dirt isn't a strong angle, but a talented proven horse in a field of 20....I amy have to take a look at that.

*Tapiture's resume is pretty weak.The only notch in his belt is the much overhyped Strong Mandate.He was close to Hoppertunity but I think that is because M Smith rode Hopp like he was the best horse in the race.With another furlong and a more patient ride at CD I'll take the Baffert.

Constitution-We have seen this script 1,000 times with the lightly raced Pletchers.It never ends well when they get thrown into a 20 horse field.Also neck and neck with toss out Wildcat Red after a perfect trip says a lot.The jury is still out on how good he can become provided Pletcher doesn't ruin yet another one by throwing him in the deep end too soon.

Samraat-I read your write up on Pace Adv and I know you like this one so I won't be harsh.I just don't see how beating Uncle Sigh twice makes you the real deal.Plus A Dutrow is a pretty good layoff trainer so the way In Trouble ran at Fairgrounds speaks volumes.

Bobby's Kitten-I have to see it to believe a Kitten's Joy can win the Derby.Besides that if he can set the pace with California Chrome,Wildcat Red, and the two or 3 others then still have enough to finish in front I may rethink betting on horses.





*Got accused of acting superior in derby trails past.These are just my opinions and in no way concrete.

[mikemca]

hey mike i notice all those 1st and 2nd place poker places in your box, thats real good, are you going to play at the borgata poker 4-8 it starts

Nah, when I go down there now it's for vacation.I play up here

[harthebar]

1	California Chrome	Art Sherman	150	$782,250
2	Vicar's in Trouble	Mike Maker	120	$760,000
3	Wicked Strong	James Jerkens	102	$640,000
4	Samraat	Rick Violette Jr.	100	$650,500
5	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	100	$600,000
6	Hoppertunity	Bob Baffert	95	$576,000
7	Intense Holiday	Todd Pletcher	93	$527,500
8	Wildcat Red	Jose Garrofalo	90	$665,500
9	We Miss Artie	Todd Pletcher	60	$544,000
10	Chitu	Bob Baffert	54	$440,000
11	Midnight Hawk	Bob Baffert	52	$320,500
12	Ring Weekend	H. Graham Motion	50	$260,000
13	Tapiture	Steve Asmussen	42	$420,738
14	General a Rod	Mike Maker	40	$240,000
15	Albano	Larry Jones	34	$190,000
16	Candy Boy	John Sadler	30	$380,000
17	Cairo Prince	Kiaran McLaughlin	24	$520,000
18	Uncle Sigh	Gary Contessa	24	$180,000
19	Vinceremos	Todd Pletcher	20	$190,000
20	Harry's Holiday	Mike Maker	20	$150,956
21	Commanding Curve	Dallas Stewart	20	$140,000
22	Social Inclusion	Manny Azpurua	20	$100,000
23	Ride on Curlin	Billy Gowan	15	$154,387
24	Kristo	John Sadler	14	$60,000
25	Coastline	Mark Casse	13	$129,679
26	Tamarando	Jerry Holldendorfer	12	$495,000
27	Strong Mandate	D. Wayne Lukas	11	$472,500
28	Rise Up	Tom Amoss	10	$786,633
29	Giovanni Boldini	Aidan O'Brien	10	$345,676
30	In Trouble	Tony Dutrow	10	$190,000

[harthebar]

January 25, 2014	Holy Bull	II	1 1/16 Miles	Gulfstream Park	REPLAY	10-4-2-1
February 1, 2014	Withers	III	1 1/16 Miles	Aqueduct	REPLAY	10-4-2-1
February 8, 2014	Robert B. Lewis	II	1 1/16 Miles	Santa Anita Park	REPLAY	10-4-2-1
February 15, 2014	El Camino Real Derby	III	1 1/8 Miles (S)	Golden Gate	REPLAY	10-4-2-1
February 17, 2014	Southwest	III	1 1/16 Miles	Oaklawn Park	REPLAY	10-4-2-1
February 22, 2014	Risen Star	II	1 1/16 Miles	Fair Grounds	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
February 22, 2014	Fountain of Youth	II	1 1/16 Miles	Gulfstream Park	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 1, 2014	Gotham	III	1 1/16 Miles	Aqueduct	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 8, 2014	San Felipe	II	1 1/16 Miles	Santa Anita Park	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 8, 2014	Tampa Bay Derby	II	1 1/16 Miles	Tampa Bay	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 15, 2014	Rebel	II	1 1/16 Miles	Oaklawn Park	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 22, 2014	Spiral	III	1 1/8 Miles (S)	Turfway Park	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 23, 2014	Sunland Derby	III	1 1/8 Miles	Sunland Park	REPLAY	50-20-10-5
March 29, 2014	Louisiana Derby	II	1 1/8 Miles	Fair Grounds	REPLAY	100-40-20-10
March 29, 2014	Florida Derby	I	1 1/8 Miles	Gulfstream Park	REPLAY	100-40-20-10
March 29, 2014	UAE Derby		1 3/16 Miles (S)	Meydan	N/A	100-40-20-10
April 5, 2014	Wood Memorial	I	1 1/8 Miles	Aqueduct	REPLAY	100-40-20-10
April 5, 2014	Santa Anita Derby	I	1 1/8 Miles	Santa Anita Park	REPLAY	100-40-20-10
April 12, 2014	Arkansas Derby		1 1/8 Miles	Oaklawn Park		100-40-20-10
April 12, 2014	Blue Grass		1 1/8 Miles (S)	Keeneland		100-40-20-10
April 19, 2014	Lexington		1 1/16 Miles (S)	Keeneland		10-4-2-1

[harthebar]

31	Noble Moon	Leah Gyarmati	10	$149,000
32	Cleburne	Dale Romans	10	$127,044
33	Commissioner	Todd Pletcher	10	$104,000
34	Dublin Up	Peter Miller	10	$20,000
35	Schiverelli	Eddie Kenneally	10	$50,000
36	Conquest Titan	Mark Casse	9	$180,495
37	Dance With Fate	Peter Eurton	8	$150,000
38	Casiguapo	Mario Morales	5	$271,050
39	East Hall	Bill Kaplan	5	$77,550
40	Classic Giacnroll	Lisa Guerrero	5	$62,500
41	Asserting Bear	Reade Baker	5	$31,432
42	Schoolofhardknocks	David Hofmans	5	$18,000
43	Scotland	Tony Dutrow	4	$45,000
44	Big Bazinga	Katerina Vassilieva	4	$44,469
45	Smart Cover	Dale Romans	4	$38,418

[harthebar]

Bayern.pdf




bobby's kitten.pdf

[harthebar]

i was wondering why they didnt have points, bobbys kitten and bayren, they havent raced really, i just watched replays of them , bobbys kitten looked real good, im wondring why he has raced, , all you need to do , is winn one of the races next weekend and your in........bayren looked good to , he only has two races, but , we will see.,

Nah...think all the serious contenders ran already.Some people seem to like Bayern who runs in the Ark Derby and Bobby's Kitten who is the likely favorite in the Blue Grass but I don't get them.

[harthebar]

Expert Picks

POWER RANKING

We've tallied the picks from all of our experts into a single Power Ranking. See what each expert thinks in their individual picks below. Updated 4/7/14

1. California Chrome
2. Hoppertunity
3. Tapiture
4. Wicked Strong
5. Candy Boy

1. Untapable
2. Unbridled Forever
3. Ria Antonia
4. Fashion Plate
5. Got Lucky

John Asher


After covering his first Kentucky Derby as a radio journalist in 1982, John Asher has not missed the “Run for the Roses” since that debut. He joined Churchill Downs in 1997 as a publicist and racing analyst, and moved to his current role as vice president of Racing Communications two years later. Before his arrival at Churchill Downs, Asher earned five media Eclipse Awards for Outstanding National Radio Coverage of Thoroughbred Racing at Louisville radio stations WHAS and WAVG. When he served as Churchill Downs’ on-air TV host and analyst, the track was honored with the inaugural “National Simulcast Award” in 1997.

Derby

1. California Chrome
2. Tapiture
3. Hoppertunity
4. Wicked Strong
5. Candy Boy
6. Constitution
7. Strong Mandate
8. Cairo Prince
9. Intense Holiday
10. Samraat

Oaks

1. Untapable
2. Unbridled Forever
3. Please Explain
4. Fashion Plate
5. Ria Antonia
6. Got Lucky
7. In Tune
8. House Rules
9. My Miss Sophia
10. Rosalind

Jill Byrne


Jill is the Director of Programming and official handicapper at Churchill Downs. She is a regular contributor to HRTV's racing programs, Pursuit of the Crown and Pursuit of the Cup and along with her on-air skills and top-notch racing analysis, Byrne is an accomplished horsewoman who worked in the development of 1997 Horse of the Year and juvenile champion Favorite Trick and Countess Diana, that year’s champion 2-year-old filly. She was also involved in the campaign of Awesome Again who defeated 1997 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner Silver Charm to win the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) at Churchill Downs in 1998.

Derby

1. California Chrome
2. Intense Holiday
3. Hoppertunity
4. Constitution
5. Wicked Strong
6. Tapiture
7. Commissioner
8. Candy Boy
9. Vicar's In Trouble
10. General A Rod

Oaks

1. Untapable
2. Unbridled Forever
3. House Rules
4. In Tune
5. Ria Antonia
6. Got Lucky
7. Sweet Reason
8. Rosalind
9. My Miss Sophia
10. Euphrosyne

Ed DeRosa


Ed DeRosa is director of marketing for Brisnet.com, the official data source of the Kentucky Derby and TwinSpires.com. Ed joined Brisnet.com in July 2011 following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times. He grew up in Cleveland and learned to love horse racing while going to Thistledown with his grandfather. Ed is a diehard Indians fan, leaving him to wonder which--if either--will come first: A Triple Crown winner or an Indians world championship. Ed's favorite horses are Real Quiet, Ghostzapper, and Rachel Alexandra.

Derby

1. California Chrome
2. Tapiture
3. Candy Boy
4. Samraat
5. Ride On Curlin
6. Bobby's Kitten
7. Chitu
8. Hoppertunity
9. Vicar's In Trouble
10. Strong Mandate

Oaks

1. Untapable
2. Fashion Plate
3. Our Amazing Rose
4. She's a Tiger
5. Unbridled Forever
6. Dame Dorothy
7. Aragorn Ami
8. Shannon Nicole
9. Ria Antonia
10. Awesome Baby

[harthebar]

I WAS LOOKING AT TAPITURE WHAT ABOUT HIS TRAINER ?

Track	Date	Race	Race Type	Finish	Chart	Video
Oaklawn Park	3/15/2014	10	Rebel Stakes - Gr. 2	2
Oaklawn Park	2/17/2014	9	Southwest Stakes - Gr. 3	1
Churchill Downs	11/30/2013	11	Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes - Gr. 2	1
Churchill Downs	10/27/2013	8	Maiden Special Weight	3
Churchill Downs	9/7/2013	7	Iroquois Stakes - Gr. 3	3
Saratoga	8/17/2013	2	Maiden Special Weight	2

I WAS LOOKING AT TAPITURE WHAT ABOUT HIS TRAINER ?

[BGboothA]

Bayern battled some injury was originally pointed toward the San Felipe, but had to move back to this weekend.

Bobby's Kitten has really only raced on turf. he has been a freaking monster on the turf, but it has all come on teh turf. He will make his move to Keenelands synthetic for a shot at the derby.

Will be quite a jump but you have to take him serious with what he has done so far.

[BigdaddyQH]

It is still way too early to start looking at these horses seriously, ut from what i have seen,, if California Chrome is on or near the lead coming around the final turn, school is out.

[harthebar]

Bidaddy, dont you think coming from the surface from santa anita to churchill will be a major factor in that,,i saw so many years you get those monsters from cal, and they just do nothing, i loved goldenscents last year, and look, what happened, then he went back to santa anita for the bc mile, he was a monster,.....and i just cant play calif. Chrome at the odds, people are all over the hype of him,,,,,he will get bet,,,,heavy

it is still way too early to start looking at these horses seriously, ut from what i have seen,, if california chrome is on or near the lead coming around the final turn, school is out.

[trytrytry]

Bidaddy, dont you think coming from the surface from santa anita to churchill will be a major factor in that,,i saw so many years you get those monsters from cal, and they just do nothing, i loved goldenscents last year, and look, what happened, then he went back to santa anita for the bc mile, he was a monster,.....and i just cant play calif. Chrome at the odds, people are all over the hype of him,,,,,he will get bet,,,,heavy

actually past 10 years or so the only horses that really get severly overbet are the longshots..which are horrible value derby day on the parimutual pools....check the exchange prices to see what I mean derby day! its quite eye opening.....

.you get a fair price (not saying an overlay as there is that nasty track takout to contend with , but top choices are not overbet at the Derby past 10 years or so..) .. You have a solid shot at seeing 3-1 on Chrome Derby Day..

[Draynay]

Constitution has done nothing wrong and has won his first 3 races in spectacular fashion. He chased down a horse no one could chase down in the Hutcheson, FOY or Florida Derby. What did CC do in California ? He ran down the mighty Dublin Up..... you can't be serious.

[Draynay]

Constitution is not in your top 10 ? And you don't have My Miss Sophia listed for the Oaks ? How long have you been doing this ?

[harthebar]

i guess i can see that .. wasnt orb like almost 5-1 last year ?

actually past 10 years or so the only horses that really get severly overbet are the longshots..which are horrible value derby day on the parimutual pools....check the exchange prices to see what I mean derby day! its quite eye opening.....

.you get a fair price (not saying an overlay as there is that nasty track takout to contend with , but top choices are not overbet at the Derby past 10 years or so..) .. You have a solid shot at seeing 3-1 on Chrome Derby Day..

[harthebar]

are you referring to those people up top ,i guess, i didnt even notice that, your right....he should be in there....they are calif. folk..lol

Constitution is not in your top 10 ? And you don't have My Miss Sophia listed for the Oaks ? How long have you been doing this ?

[Draynay]

Yes !!! California people have lost their minds !!!

are you referring to those people up top ,i guess, i didnt even notice that, your right....he should be in there....they are calif. folk..lol

Not having My Miss Sophia in your top 3 for the Oaks means you know nothing about horse racing. And not having Constitution in your top 3 for the Derby means you are blind.

California Chrome ran past Dublin Up.... DUBLIN UP !!!! Are you serious ???

[nvrlose37]

If Cairo Prince gets in, he may be a healthy price at say 12-1. May be looking at Cal Chrome being like 9-5 by post time.

[Slimpickens]

Not having My Miss Sophia in your top 3 for the Oaks means you know nothing about horse racing. And not having Constitution in your top 3 for the Derby means you are blind.

California Chrome ran past Dublin Up.... DUBLIN UP !!!! Are you serious ???

I think it's the way California Chrome won not who he defeated. He has answered every question so far that has been asked of him.

[Magnolia Slim]

Not having My Miss Sophia in your top 3 for the Oaks means you know nothing about horse racing. And not having Constitution in your top 3 for the Derby means you are blind.

California Chrome ran past Dublin Up.... DUBLIN UP !!!! Are you serious ???

You any kin to pulled queer?

[BGboothA]

Not having My Miss Sophia in your top 3 for the Oaks means you know nothing about horse racing. And not having Constitution in your top 3 for the Derby means you are blind.

California Chrome ran past Dublin Up.... DUBLIN UP !!!! Are you serious ???

Nice to see that some things don't change around here. This place was a great forum a year ago.

[Draynay]

Its the way he won !!!!

The way CC won ? You mean by running in races lacking and true speed horses ? In the mighty SA Derby he stalked a Maiden that has never come close to winning a race. You like the way he beat a Maiden ? It's the way he did it ? Constitution ran down the Hutcheson and FOY winner when no one else was able to.... he beat Cairo Prince and a few weeks earlier put away Wicked Strong by more than 6 lengths..... but...... you like the way CC beat a Maiden........ makes perfect sense.......

[Slimpickens]

What are you trying to prove bud?

[mrginandtonic]

I believe he is telling us the next Derby Winner, CONSTITUTION. Thanks in advance. Now we can just concentrate on the pick 4 & pick 3.

[BGboothA]

I believe he is telling us the next Derby Winner, CONSTITUTION. Thanks in advance. Now we can just concentrate on the pick 4 & pick 3.

I woiuldn't totally count out Consituttion, if you look at his pedigree, the whole curse of Apollo really shouldn't play a role. I am not sure he will win the thing, but he is on my medium list and will absolutely be on my exotics list.

[Draynay]

This is my point .....

Nothing is good or bad except by comparison.

Kristo raced in CALIFORNIA 5 times and hit the board 5 times including a 2nd place finish in the Sham and a 3rd place finish in the San Felipe. He had a bullet work and was sent to the Wood where he showed some speed only to spit the bit losing by 20 finishing 7th.

In California he is hitting the board in Stake Races.... he comes East and faces some real speed and real competition and loses by 20 !!! That SHOULD give you some indication of the type of horses CC has been facing and what is going to happen when CC meets some real horses in the Kentucky Derby.

If CC doesn't get a workout at Churchill he will not hit the board in the Derby unless he jumps the rail and runs into it.

[BGboothA]

If CC doesn't get a workout at Churchill he will not hit the board in the Derby unless he jumps the rail and runs into it.

Do you really think they will ship him without working out on the CHurchill dirt? I would be surprised

[mrginandtonic]

Do you really think they will ship him without working out on the CHurchill dirt? I would be surprised

Last I read somewhere, they don't plan to work a workout, I think.