*HBD PICKS* BGboothA's Road to Kentucky

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  • BGboothA
    SBR MVP
    • 08-07-08
    • 4202

    #1
    *HBD PICKS* BGboothA's Road to Kentucky
    Guess who’s BAAAACCCKKKK!

    Hey guys it has been about a month and a half since I have posted HBD stuff on here. We took a small timeout after the Breeders Cup in order to pound the data we collected last year.

    We went back and collected a more than 3,500 races into our data base and ran our numbers all over them. With this information we are really excited for what 2013 will bring the HBD boys and their followers.

    Some highlights from the 2012 data:

    Winner in Top 4
    Our system spits out its top 4 horses; this number indicates the percentage that one of those top 4 horses wins the race. Keep in mind this number does not account for any scratches. Because of time constraints we don’t have the man power to double check all results. If one of our top horses is scratched we have no way to account for it.

    Tracks Overall
    -Santa Anita 77%
    -Belmont 74%
    -Golden Gate 70%

    Race Specific
    Santa Anita / Turf / Route = 88%
    Belmont / Dirt / Sprints = 86%
    Golden Gate / Route = 83%
    Emerald Downs / Dirt / Sprint = 82%
    Santa Anita / Turf / Sprint = 80%
    Calder / Dirt / Routes = 78%

    On the other hand we have some tracks that we should probably stay away from.

    Arlington Park = 56%
    Finger Lakes = 51%
    Calder / Turf = 43%
    Woodbine / Turf / Route = 43%

    We have also been collecting data on Exacta’s, Trifecta’s as well, but those are a lot harder to summarize on here.

    My goal for this year is to post on here every Thursday, Friday and Saturday the cards for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. If I have time I will also try to post some picks and some ideas on how we use this information to make the bets we choose to make.
  • BGboothA
    SBR MVP
    • 08-07-08
    • 4202

    #2
    Here are the files for Friday 01/04/2013



    Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:12 PM. Reason: Linkage was wrong format
    Comment
    • TonyP
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-20-09
      • 8478

      #3
      do you have anything for turfway?
      Comment
      • BGboothA
        SBR MVP
        • 08-07-08
        • 4202

        #4
        Not for tomorrow, but I can run Turfway for Saturday and Sunday if you like.
        Comment
        • TonyP
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-20-09
          • 8478

          #5
          Originally posted by BGboothA
          Not for tomorrow, but I can run Turfway for Saturday and Sunday if you like.

          I did not know if you had any data for turfway or not, and does the surface matter? Do you calculate the figs differently for the different surfaces?
          Comment
          • BGboothA
            SBR MVP
            • 08-07-08
            • 4202

            #6
            Originally posted by TonyP
            I did not know if you had any data for turfway or not, and does the surface matter? Do you calculate the figs differently for the different surfaces?
            Our current data for Turfway sits at 62 races in our history. We will run data historically for tomorrow but not before hand. I can put Turfway on our list to run the day before no problem.

            Yes all of our data is calculated based on a number of factors, surface, distance, # horses, amount of data on horses, all change how the figures are calculated along with other factors as well.

            I can tell you that overall we are much stronger on dirt than on turf, although turf is greatly improving as we collect more data. Part of the issue is simple data collection on turf. There are far less number of turf races than dirt, making it harder and longer to collect quality data on turf and our numbers.
            Comment
            • BGboothA
              SBR MVP
              • 08-07-08
              • 4202

              #7
              Ohh and I forgot to mention, I can pull data from any decent sized track in the country. The main differences come from the amount of history we have on that track.

              Going into this year, we will be collecting much more back data on some of the tracks we haven't been focusing on. But we created a simpler way to back test data on previous days. Plus its cheaper for us to back test than to run numbers for the next day.
              Comment
              • TonyP
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-20-09
                • 8478

                #8
                Thanks for the detailed response
                Comment
                • TonyP
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-20-09
                  • 8478

                  #9
                  Im not sure how to read these however, going to OTB tomorrow so will be wagering on some of these.
                  Comment
                  • BGboothA
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-07-08
                    • 4202

                    #10
                    Our how to guide...



                    I am also currently editing a youtube video to help read them as well.
                    Comment
                    • joeyp1222
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-01-09
                      • 5186

                      #11
                      BG welcome back and good luck to ya used your picks in santa anita 2nd for tri key over the other 3 hit for $60 nice going
                      Comment
                      • BGboothA
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-07-08
                        • 4202

                        #12
                        I only ended up playing a little Aqueduct this afternoon.

                        Hit a nice exacta in the 3rd for $179 and another exacta in the 8th for $47.

                        Had a few close calls as well. Finished the day up about $80 after going after the late pick 4, even though my new years horse racing resolution was to stop playing the pick4s.

                        lol
                        Comment
                        • BGboothA
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-07-08
                          • 4202

                          #13
                          Here are the files for Saturday 01/05/2013



                          Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
                          Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:12 PM. Reason: Link Not Working - Removed-)
                          Comment
                          • Arletta
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 02-03-12
                            • 440

                            #14
                            Welcome back Booth!
                            Comment
                            • BGboothA
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-07-08
                              • 4202

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Arletta
                              Welcome back Booth!
                              Great to be Back Arletta!
                              Comment
                              • BGboothA
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-07-08
                                • 4202

                                #16
                                Here are the files for Sunday 01/06/2013



                                Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
                                Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:13 PM.
                                Comment
                                • Arletta
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-03-12
                                  • 440

                                  #17
                                  Really picking some nice winners and exactas. Thanks!
                                  Comment
                                  • BGboothA
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-07-08
                                    • 4202

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Arletta
                                    Really picking some nice winners and exactas. Thanks!
                                    I actually didn't play a single race today...sat around drinking and watching my Seahawks roll!
                                    Comment
                                    • DDT
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-22-09
                                      • 3757

                                      #19
                                      Welcome back BG!
                                      Comment
                                      • BGboothA
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-07-08
                                        • 4202

                                        #20
                                        Last weekend's Report Card:

                                        Not horrible, but below last years averages across the board.

                                        206 Total Races calculated last weekend.
                                        23% of the time our top pick won the race
                                        64% of the time one of our top 4 won the race
                                        36% of the time two of our top 4 completed the Exacta
                                        13% of the time three of our top 4 completed the Trifecta

                                        Some Highlights
                                        77% top 4 at Golden Given
                                        75% top 4 at Turfway Park
                                        72% top 4 at Charlestown
                                        91% top 4 at GG Sprints
                                        89% top 4 at CT Sprints

                                        Some Lowlights
                                        Aqueduct was horrible:
                                        15% top horse
                                        48% Top 4 Winner
                                        22% Exacta
                                        11% Trifecta

                                        OUCH!

                                        ---------------------------------------
                                        However, it was a profitable weekend. Our recommended exacta's paid off nice, coming in at a payout of just over $300 using minimum bets!!!!!!!

                                        ----------------------------------------
                                        Comment
                                        • DDT
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-22-09
                                          • 3757

                                          #21
                                          Will you have some plays for Oaklawn tomorrow?
                                          Comment
                                          • BGboothA
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-07-08
                                            • 4202

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by DDT
                                            Will you have some plays for Oaklawn tomorrow?
                                            Yeah posting them now
                                            Comment
                                            • BGboothA
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-07-08
                                              • 4202

                                              #23
                                              Here are the files for Friday 01/11/2013

                                              And as always, you know where to find the rest of tracks.
                                              Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:13 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • BGboothA
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-07-08
                                                • 4202

                                                #24
                                                **New HBD Feature**
                                                Click image for larger version

Name:	ExactaExp.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	9.8 KB
ID:	29118181

                                                ExactaExp = Back testing our data from last year we learned that we should be playing the exacta when a race meets certain qualifications. We are still testing this!! I am in no way guaranteeing anything, this is why its still labeled "Exacta Experiment".

                                                For Friday 01/11/2013 we have 23 pre-qualifying races, they are:

                                                CT R7 5,7/2,3,5,7
                                                DED R1
                                                DED R8
                                                DED R9
                                                FG R8
                                                FG R9
                                                GP R6
                                                OP R5
                                                OP R6
                                                OP R9
                                                TAM R5
                                                TAM R9
                                                TP R1
                                                TP R2
                                                TP R3
                                                TP R5
                                                TP R7
                                                TP R10

                                                We bet them a couple of different ways, depending on odds coming up to post time. For the most part, we look at Pace styles and try to play our best Early Pace horse and Late pace horse over our top 4 horses. So for instance...

                                                Oaklawn Park Race 5
                                                We would likely play 5,8/5,6,8,9 for a total bet of $12.

                                                Good luck all!
                                                Comment
                                                • thes0vereign
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-13-12
                                                  • 712

                                                  #25
                                                  Gulfstream Park link is broken on your site. Thanks for all your hard work!

                                                  Found the working link -
                                                  Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:13 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BGboothA
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-07-08
                                                    • 4202

                                                    #26
                                                    Hey thanks for teh heads up thes0vereign....

                                                    I fixed it now...although its probably a alittle late at this point.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Arletta
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 02-03-12
                                                      • 440

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by BGboothA
                                                      Hey thanks for teh heads up thes0vereign....

                                                      I fixed it now...although its probably a alittle late at this point.
                                                      lol.. Just a tad
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BGboothA
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-07-08
                                                        • 4202

                                                        #28
                                                        **New HBD Feature**
                                                        Click image for larger version

Name:	ExactaExp.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	9.8 KB
ID:	29118181

                                                        For Friday 01/11/2013 we have 23 pre-qualifying races, they are:

                                                        CT R7 -12.00
                                                        DED R1 -12.00
                                                        DED R8 -12.00
                                                        DED R9 -12.00
                                                        FG R8 -12.00
                                                        FG R9 -12.00 (we almost used the 8 instead of the 3 and it cost us 165)
                                                        GP R6 -12.00
                                                        OP R5 -12.00
                                                        OP R6 -12.00
                                                        OP R9 -12.00
                                                        TAM R5 +148.40
                                                        TAM R9 +17.80
                                                        TP R1 -12.00
                                                        TP R2 -12.00 (our top horse was a 22.00 winner! Dang missed the 2nd)
                                                        TP R3 +48.00
                                                        TP R5 -12.00
                                                        TP R7 -12.00
                                                        TP R10 -12.00

                                                        Not a great day, still finished up 17.80 but had so many winners and just couldn't get the second half of the exacta.

                                                        Running the sheets for tomorrow right now.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BGboothA
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-07-08
                                                          • 4202

                                                          #29
                                                          Here are the files for Saturday 01/12/2013



                                                          And as always, you know where to find the rest of tracks.

                                                          Will update Exacta picks in a while....
                                                          Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:13 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • harthebar
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-09-11
                                                            • 15709

                                                            #30
                                                            Im just looking over this data ,i'm guessing the top 3 plays are the highest numbers.? How do you bet your samples ....exacta boxes the top 3......could you take a few moments to explain.thanks
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BGboothA
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-07-08
                                                              • 4202

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by harthebar
                                                              Im just looking over this data ,i'm guessing the top 3 plays are the highest numbers.? How do you bet your samples ....exacta boxes the top 3......could you take a few moments to explain.thanks
                                                              I am not sure what you mean by the first question. We list the top four picks for each race according to our numbers. I don't bet them exactly like that myself. But they are listed, the more important aspect IMO is to look for the "/" in the picks. This symbol indicates a 'teir' in the picks. A large gap in probable winners per say.

                                                              As far as the samples, we will usually use pace figures to determine the most likely early pace winner and the most likely off the pace winner over the top 4 horses, sometimes we jump around as well. But for the most part the exactas we play are 2 horse wheels. Something like 1,2/1,2,3,4.

                                                              The majority of my bets are these $12 wheel bets. We have had some good success with this when the race hits the right criteria.

                                                              Some of these criteria include:
                                                              1. Race has more than 7 horses
                                                              2. On Dirt
                                                              3. Top four horses need to average more than 4.9 ML odds
                                                              4. A pace rating of E, EE, or EEE
                                                              Comment
                                                              • harthebar
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 12-09-11
                                                                • 15709

                                                                #32
                                                                83.84
                                                                8
                                                                80.54
                                                                10
                                                                44.81
                                                                4
                                                                m/
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BGboothA
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-07-08
                                                                  • 4202

                                                                  #33
                                                                  This may help as well....

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BGboothA
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-07-08
                                                                    • 4202

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Here are the files for Saturday 01/13/2013



                                                                    And as always, you know where to find the rest of tracks.

                                                                    Also, I finished this video today, describing how to read one of HBD's sheets. Its longer than I hoped, but ohh well.
                                                                    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-18-14, 03:13 PM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Khiaao
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 05-12-12
                                                                      • 650

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thanks for the vid
                                                                      Comment
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