aznbluff NHL with writeups

[goduke]

your writeups are awesome man, its nice to see on this site. Any thoughts on the rangers/jets game tonight and philly/toronto. Kind of like winnipeg.

[TomJSports]

Think you're overstating Garrison and Weaver, a bit here. Weaver's been a solid defensemen for a few years. I see him like Marcus Ragnarsson, in that you don't notice him and that's a good thing. Garrison I think took the Raflaski-route to the NHL, being undrafted through college. He's a nice defensemen and maybe just maybe could be an all-star based on his defensive play. But I defintely agree that defensemen that actually play great defense are almost never spoken of.

I hope Price turns it around, just because he's fun to watch and he's on my fantasy squad. He's sitting out his first game tonight though. TSN has Budaj starting. And Markström isn't confirmed yet. I may like this as an over play considering both teams have put up some gigantic scoring games.

[aznbluff]

If price is out I would lay off this game

[TomJSports]

Ohh, and you nailed the NHL contest last week. Great work, man!

[TomJSports]

If price is out I would lay off this game

http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=378815

[aznbluff]

Alright thanks for the info, that's good to know. Who is in net for Florida

[TomJSports]

Left Wing Lock is predicting Markström but it isn't confirmed yet.

[aznbluff]

Markstrom has been very impressive the 2 games I watched of him. He is similar to Luongo in style. That's who he reminds me of. He's a little better technically but also (in my opinion) less athletic. He'll be a star for years to come. Damn, looks like Im gonna have no action on tonights games but there are 3 games on tomorrows card that I'm looking to hammer (looks like itll be 2,2,4 units just on first glance, Ill look em over shortly)

[ctguy]

So Montreal is the play?

[aznbluff]

Im passing. If Price is out then Montreal isnt worth -135, looks like line is at -125 now. Probably right about fair for both sides. Books are really sharp like that...go figure.

[TomJSports]

Markström will be a great keeper. Watched him at Brynäs and internationals. Mentally and technically, he is spot on. And he's looked good in his first couple of NHL games. Not expecting a Calder run or anything this year, but he'll be great down the road. Hell, I trust him more than Budaj.

[aznbluff]

Games for tomorrow I like are San Jose -133, Vancouver -137 (love it, though I hate Vancouver and Edmonton is my team haha), and Dallas +101

San Jose is just much much superior to the Preds at the FW position. Only really David Legwand would crack the SJS top 9 forwards and that would be on Handzus' wing. SJS forwards are actually quite solid players all around, led by the evolution of Joe Thornton as a hockey player. I've never seen him play better hockey than the end of last season and leading into this year....not in his 120+ point Hart year, or all those big offensive number years. He's just a really solid player now and should be around 80 points this season. Against teams that commit forwards back to help in the defensive end like a San Jose does, Nashville FWs just dont have the size and skill to keep any sustained pressure in the offensive zone, which is their whole gameplan. Nashville doesnt have the sniper power or transition explosive offense to produce goals from a rush, they need to grind out their goals, which plays right into the Sharks strengths.

The defender edge I actually give to San Jose as well, despite how vaunted the Predators Dcore is. The overall depth across 3 pairings, all 6 defenders on the Sharks is disgusting. I would put it at about top 5 in the league, right around what Nashville is at, but what they have that Nashville doesnt is specialized roles. Suter-Weber are great players but they are only "great" at most phases of the game. Burns-Boyle are their equals at bringing PP offense, and I would suggest superior at ES offense. Murray-Vlasic are very comparable to them defensively. The reason Suter-Weber are so valuable is because you can simply play them in every situation and you know you are getting high level production, while you may need, in this case, 4 very good players to replace and equal their roles, which is tough to find. However, San Jose has just that. Their team depth is insane.

Again, the wildcard is going to be in net. Rinne is just such a gigantic advantage to have in net. You literally have to outshoot and outchance Nashville by like 2-4 shots to be even money with them. SJS to be worth their price here have to play in the range of {24-20 to 30-24**, which is a tough task for sure (4-6 shots here), but again, with solid defenders and solid team defense in general on both sides, a low offensive output game is favored here, so on the lower end of that range, about 4 shots, which San Jose is very likely to cover.

[aznbluff]

Markström will be a great keeper. Watched him at Brynäs and internationals. Mentally and technically, he is spot on. And he's looked good in his first couple of NHL games. Not expecting a Calder run or anything this year, but he'll be great down the road. Hell, I trust him more than Budaj.

Oh, for sure, he is superior to Budaj already. He has the toolbox to truely become one of the elite goaltenders in the league, and I dont throw that term around lightly. I also think that he's very capable of a Calder run. Ur underrating your own boy

[xelemental]

Wow Good write up! I am also going to load up on San Jose for tomorrow before it moves even more!!

[aznbluff]

Vancouver is superior to the Oilers in every way, except possibly winger depth. However, Hemmer is injured again (our best winger/player), no surprise, so its probably a wash, even slight edge to Vancouver with the upgrade to David Booth, who is a solid option as a depth winger.

Oilers have been overperforming (fluking) at every opportunity this year. RNH (quickly becoming a favorite of mine) has 5 goals in 7 games. He isn't a goalscorer and never has been (30 goals last year in junior), so expect a "goal scoring slump" at some point, whereas really its just convergence to his average. He is the only Oiler scoring at the moment also, so do the math. Defensive advantage is heavily in favor of Vancouver as well. Very comparable players in Ballard and Gilbert are #5 and #1 on their respective teams depth charts at the moment. Perhaps the only edge we have over the Canucks is Horcoff over Malhotra given their roles (both I think are really really good players, for as much hate as Horc gets from our fanbase).

Then the Canucks have 2 goaltenders who would be unquestionably our #1 and either one is about a 4-8 shot advantage. However our goalies are flying high right now...riding out the good side of variance to like a 960 SV%. Ya..thats not sustainable, especially for bad/average goalies. Giving the Canucks 4-8 shot advantage when really, the Oilers are the ones who need it is just a mismatch, almost like giving the superior football team +points on the spread. Canucks should be closer to -180, even -190 in this spot than the -140 they are at. I think this is (along with that Blues side a few days ago) one of the biggest value plays we will see this season (most should come at the start of the year when there are still lots of unknowns/variables).

[SKX007]

Enjoy your writeups very much. Any take on tonight games? Do you make your own lines? What price would you give ST Louis tonight?

[aznbluff]

I just continue to be impressed by Pietrangelo. He has merely been solid and good this game, but this has basically been his worst game of the year.

Pietrangelo is special. I never use that term. Only for describing Crosby and Pavel Datsyuk have I used that term.

What Pietrangelo does on D is very similar to what Datsyuk does. There are situations/puck battles where there should be a decent offensive chance/situation generated against the Blues but he does a sublime poke check or stick check followed by a sublime little stickhandle that is of no risk defensively (this is the key part) to gain possession and then either make a breakout pass or chip the puck behind his net to a teammate.

Stickhandling is usually overplaying the play. Example for forwards, someone like a Alex Semin usually stickhandles for no reason in bad spots. But Pietrangelo's stickhandling is like Datsyuk's, in that when you look back on that play, you realize that "wow, that was quite possibly the most optimal play to make given that situation and all the variables" when it usually isnt the optimal play. Both Pie and Pav dont actually stickhandle and overplay the puck when it's not the right situation. They are actually two of the most "keep it simple" players I've seen. That's what makes it special, always looking for the simple play, defaulting to the simple play, yet still producing the highest quality finesse only when it's the correct play to make. I've never seen another Dman do this to this level. Lidstrom is the king of making the simple smart play. He does it at a high skill level in terms of his passing and decision making, but Pietrangelo brings an aspect of pure physical talent/skills into it. Its quite incredible to watch.

He plays most of his ES minutes with Kent Huskins, who is not even being a deadweight on that pairing. He is playing very solid hockey right now. Very few players can make the ones they are surrounded by so noticeably better. Pietrangelo allows Huskins to play to his strengths, which makes him a very valuable piece to play even non-sheltered minutes. You are literally getting the best out of Huskins by pairing him with Pie, which is huge from a coaching standpoint.

The one area that Petro falls short in compared to these other "young dmen with potential" is PP offense. He's just very solid, but not quite as dynamic as a Fowler or Subban or Karlsson. I would argue though that he is the best offensive dman (arguably in the game) at even strength. And his ability to transition defense into offense, and sustain offense without sacrificing defense is very unique.

All this, while being the best 1 on 1 rush defender I've ever seen. The only thing he should work on is his cycle/sustained defending. He is good but he can be better.

I think this guy is already a top 3 defender, arguably (an in my opinion) already the best in the league. He usually isnt flashy, much like Datsyuk, yet everything he does is indeed "flashy" at the same time, if that makes any sense. Everything is done to the highest level. He's basically this generations Nick Lidstrom + a bigger frame/longer reach + better skating.

[aznbluff]

Today's card has a lot of playable games in my opinion.
The later plays are quite interesting here.

Washington @ Edmonton (-155/+139)

Edmonton has been relying on hot goaltending and quick strike scoring up til now this year. Both of those, I've already stated, are unsustainable. You can't rely on just flying down wing, dropping off a pass, and scoring. Not even Ovechkin and Kovalchuk can do that anymore with regularity. Defenders are too smart and too good now, as the league continues to trend towards --> team defense > offense. For a team that relys so heavily on transition offense, the Oilers meet the pioneers of it.

Transition offense requires two things to be effective. It requires obviously (at least 1 per line) a fast, skating-type forward who is good at zone entry and either has a good shot or can set up someone who has a good shot. Then it also requires a puck-moving defenseman who has a good/high level breakout pass. Oilers have this with Hall/MPS (across 2 lines) + Gilbert/Whitney/Barker across 3 pairings, Horcoff is the best skater on the 2nd line but average at this.
The Capitals really were among the first to use this post-lockout, mainly because they had Ovechkin, who is the king of this style of offense (with both the speed and shot needed in one package). Now however, they have the speed to employ it across their whole lineup. OV, Johansson, and Chimera all fly and are balanced across 3 lines. Johansson has the perfect triggerman once he gains zone entry in Alex Semin. And the Caps have an embarrasment of riches when it comes to dmen with a good to great breakout pass.

Expect this to be a more high flying, trade chances back and forth type game rather than a grindfest as both teams like to play in transition. If you read my earlier posts, I've stated that these are the types of games that goaltending advantage is at a maxima. There are (usually) more scoring chances both ways and better scoring chances both ways in these type of games. This brings goaltending ability out more frequently, which reduces variance.

Goaltending here goes undoubtedly to Vokoun, who has been (statistically) the best goaltending post-lockout, despite wasting away in Florida for years. If anyone wants to see the numbers, the Capitals have about a {27-30 to 24-27] shot edge, meaning they can get outshot here by about 3 shots to be even money. Of course they are heavily favored to actually be the ones outplaying the Oilers (also heavily juiced at -155), and they also have the sniper power to convert more of those shots into goals. Alex Semin has (I think) the best wrist shot in the game and everyone knows about Ovechkins. Hall is the only one on the Oilers with goalscoring ability above the circles.

[TheLonePair]

Haven't you been wrong so far when it comes to betting against the Oilers?

[aznbluff]

yup, well I think I've been right as far as the lines go, but the Oilers have been winning so far.

For example, Vancouver definitely outplayed us last game, definitely enough to justify the -145 line.

If you don't agree, feel free to fade

[TheLonePair]

Maybe you shouldn't bet on/against your team. Anyway, what do you think on tonight's tampa bay nashville game? I don't see how tampa loses?

[aznbluff]

Gigantic advantages for Nashville on D and in net. And I've made it clear how much I value defense and puck possession. Tampa is really gonna be hardpressed to outplay Nashville to the tune of 5-9 shots, which is required for them to be even money.

The beauty of having an elite goaltender and elite team defense is that you are never a big dog to anyone, since teams have to outplay you by such a large margin to justify anything over +130. By the same token though, they dont have the forwards to dominate puck possession in a game, nor the firepower to produce explosive offense, so they should never be favored by much more than about -130 too.

It's basically always going to be a close game either way when a team built like Nashville is involved.

At basically a pk either way, I think I would lean Nashville here just because it's hard for any team to be favored by 5+ shots and Tampa Bay is more of a quick strike, explosive offense team, rather than a puck possession/dominate game flow kind of team. That plays to Nashvilles advantage because it emphasizes the goalies more, and Rinne is a big edge to have.

[Cyclone24]

Today's card has a lot of playable games in my opinion.
The later plays are quite interesting here.

Interesting you say that. I usually find 2-3 matches to bet on daily and I'm doing well so far, but I can't find value in any of today's matches.
Maybe Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and NJ Devils if the bookies move against them a bit.

Edit: Actually I had an early bet on Penguins (-1.5) at 2.70. Good value imo.

[face]

like the writeups alot

[aznbluff]

Kind of back, probably won't be posting often still. Hope people decided to back St. Louis this season and fade the Oilers for the third straight season. Pietrangelo has lived up to my expectations, he truly is something special and always a treat to watch.

I really like Nashville +156 today; the Penguins are severely overrated in this game and no doubt a public favorite now. Nashville is a team that should never be worse than +150 to anyone, especially a team with a below average goalie. Pittsburgh has all the offensive star power but Nashville may very well be the superior team. It's "scary" to back anyone on the road against the Penguins right now in the midst of their hype but Nashville at almost +160 is probably one of the best dog bets all year. Just really couldn't pass this one up so came back to post it.